Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[antycbr]

I suspect Victoria isn't all that far from losing control of the lockdowns entirely. Too many. In too many places that didn't have any covid. Dan's only alternative may well be opening for the vaccinated, as I don't know that the 70% (or whatever it is) will continue being compliant forever.

There's less than 20,000 VicPol. Straight up halve that for shifts, let alone leave/training etc and all the other things police do (a lot of which is paperwork). They can't be everywhere. You need a high level of compliance from the population so police are dealing with 1% or so of people. If that becomes 30% they simply cant control a liberal democracy in this way.

 

[jrfsp]

Today's National Cab should be interesting:

According to Andrew Barr:

“We have the latest Doherty modelling. That’s updated for 1000s and 1000s of case numbers and that points to an uncontrollable outbreak that is not safe at 70%.[...] So adherence to the national plan, recognition that the Doherty modelling no longer supports anything crazy happening at 70% would be a really good outcome out of today’s National Cabinet meeting.”

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Today's National Cab should be interesting:

According to Andrew Barr:

“We have the latest Doherty modelling. That’s updated for 1000s and 1000s of case numbers and that points to an uncontrollable outbreak that is not safe at 70%.[...] So adherence to the national plan, recognition that the Doherty modelling no longer supports anything crazy happening at 70% would be a really good outcome out of today’s National Cabinet meeting.”

I feel like i want to drive to the nearest oval with a pair of binoculars. I can hear goalposts being put up on wheels

 

[Seat0B]

Given I’ve gone from multiple overseas trips each year to 200+ days of lockdown in Melb (worse than regional Vic) I thought .. for a time ..…I could travel to somewhere different (for a break) and Australia was my only choice.
How wrong I was….
As I’ve said in another post ….my memory is long, pockets full of refunds from cancelled trips and I have no intention of spending it in WA/QLD for the foreseeable future once the borders reopen.
…never in my life have I ever felt bad about living here and I love Australia… but the disintegration of civic discourse and cooperation really bothers me..

I totally agree @MARTINE. And I have family in Queensland. But I will be avoiding visting as much as I possibly can and hope they will visit me here instead.

 

[antycbr]

I feel like i want to drive to the nearest oval with a pair of binoculars. I can hear goalposts being put up on wheels

I don't think it's that bad, I think Andrew Barr is saying let's not let it rip at 70% and be more cautious. The difference between 70 and 80 is not that big really especially if we have 10 million doses this month.

 

[justinbrett]

Sounds like 70% for internal opening and 80% of interstate and international

 

[Must...Fly!]

I don't think it's that bad, I think Andrew Barr is saying let's not let it rip at 70% and be more cautious. The difference between 70 and 80 is not that big really especially if we have 10 million doses this month.

No one ever said let it rip, that's what is so disingenuous about the political commentary at the moment.

 

[Eastwick20]

There's less than 20,000 VicPol. Straight up halve that for shifts, let alone leave/training etc and all the other things police do (a lot of which is paperwork). They can't be everywhere. You need a high level of compliance from the population so police are dealing with 1% or so of people. If that becomes 30% they simply cant control a liberal democracy in this way.

St Kilda beach is at the end of my street

Last night when I went for my 1 hour walk for exercise there were so many people milling around together in large groups having a great time

There was a group of around 7 police standing together watching proceedings

There really wasn't a lot they could do, they were out numbered and they knew it

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I don't think it's that bad, I think Andrew Barr is saying let's not let it rip at 70% and be more cautious. The difference between 70 and 80 is not that big really especially if we have 10 million doses this month.

yea but this was the guy who several times this week gave the percentage over 16 and the percentage of over 12's. very risk averse.

 

[dairyfloss]

I don't think it's that bad, I think Andrew Barr is saying let's not let it rip at 70% and be more cautious. The difference between 70 and 80 is not that big really especially if we have 10 million doses this month.

Yes, I'm not sure it will make much of a difference. NSW is a good chance to have 90% of people with a first dose & about 60-65% (depending on supply increases) with a second dose by the time we revisit lockdown at the end of September. The gap from there to 70% double does is only about another 2-3 weeks, and then another 10-12 days for 80% (before end of October, I reckon).

EDITED: I had been looking at the wrong side of the tables for some stats before!

 

[Seat0B]

I feel like i want to drive to the nearest oval with a pair of binoculars. I can hear goalposts being put up on wheels

yep I do too - and I have been saying that for a long time. I just don;t trust them at all.

 

[antycbr]

yea but this was the guy who several times this week gave the percentage over 16 and the percentage of over 12's. very risk averse.

It's cute that the ACT thinks it gets any say in this. They're a territory, not a state. Scomo would not hesitate to get parliament to disallow it if they got intransigent - might be a bit tight in the senate but they'd get it through.

Also all of their complex logistics is outsourced to southwest Sydney.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

No one ever said let it rip, that's what is so disingenuous about the political commentary at the moment.

Not really - if you allow unvaccinated out at say 80% double dose - that is precisely the Delta post vaccination version of letting it rip.

And unless someone has heard something different that is what NSW is proposing for its post-80% environment which probably start in about 7 weeks time.

 

[justinbrett]

Not really - if you allow unvaccinated out at say 80% double dose - that is precisely the Delta post vaccination version of letting it rip.

And unless someone has heard something different that is what NSW is proposing for its post-80% environment which probably start in about 7 weeks time.

It will likely be 95% single / 80% double so still pretty good.

No modelling has been done for more than 80%

 

[oz_mark]

Not really - if you allow unvaccinated out at say 80% double dose - that is precisely the Delta post vaccination version of letting it rip.

And unless someone has heard something different that is what NSW is proposing for its post-80% environment which probably start in about 7 weeks time.

But 80% still had baseline controls in place, and fairly limited international options.

 

[Lynda2475]

The most recent murmuring noted here on this thread was that the NSW Premier would allow unvaxxed or 1 dosers out at 80% double dosed - and as has been constantly harped NSW authorities are following Doherty apparently. But of course, not heard anything more specific or if that position has changed. About 7 weeks to 80% in NSW......

No idea where you got that impression. Gladys has never stated that restrictions would be lifted for the unvaccinated at 80%. She has been warning that freedoms will be for the vaccinated, and that international borders will open at 80%. She is on r3cord that some restrictions like masks in certain high risk settings will remain.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It will likely be 95% single / 80% double so still pretty good.

No modelling has been done for more than 80%

Not sure why you are talking about modelling - the impacts of vaccination will hopefully kick in at 75-80% first dose, but then when you let the say 10% unvaccinated (some may cancel their second dose, some may not take up their first dose appointment) out in a post 80% double dose world, some will get sick/covid and need hospitalisation etc....so "commonsense" would say its likely to go up but hopefully be nowhere near breaking the health system - isn't that the point of the 80% rule in the first place?!?!

 

[Must...Fly!]

Not really - if you allow unvaccinated out at say 80% double dose - that is precisely the Delta post vaccination version of letting it rip.

And unless someone has heard something different that is what NSW is proposing for its post-80% environment which probably start in about 7 weeks time.

By that point almost all of them would have made their choice. Restrictions will apply to them (rightly so) to prevent the hospital system going in to meltdown.

 

[justinbrett]

Not sure why you are talking about modelling - the impacts of vaccination will hopefully kick in at 75-80% first dose, but then when you let the say 10% unvaccinated (some may cancel their second dose, some may not take up their first dose appointment) out in a post 80% double dose world, some will get sick/covid and need hospitalisation etc....so "commonsense" would say its likely to go up but hopefully be nowhere near breaking the health system - isn't that the point of the 80% rule in the first place?!?!

I'm saying opening up fully at vax rates closer to 90% will be much more favourable than 80% which is what has been modelled.

At that point it probably doesn't matter if the unvaccinated are out too.

I think you are overestimated the number of people who wouldn't take the second dose. It will be a very small number.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

By that point almost all of them would have made their choice. Restrictions will apply to them (rightly so) to prevent the hospital system going in to meltdown.

Perhaps almost all have made their choice - perhaps not.

Some remote, indigenous, disability communities might be left behind unable to be vaccinated (eg due to logistics issues). Elderly wanting to have free choice - ie get Pfizer wouldn't have had their choice enabled despite sufficient supplies by November.