Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[TonyHancock]

There is not only a single path to follow here.

Agreed - almost permanent lockdown is one option, and there are those that like that option.

 

[33kft]

Agreed - almost permanent lockdown is one option, and there are those that like that option.

And everything inbetween. We have long been in a class of countries (Taiwan, NZ, Singapore, etc) with different settings to Europe and the US who have avoided a lot of unnecessary deaths and we are all cautiously emerging. We do not have to throw the doors open and despite what many say as they throw their hands in the air we are not going to be the last to open. The rhetoric is in overdrive.

 

[TonyHancock]

The rhetoric is in overdrive.

Sadly I think it is the Covid Delta variant that is in overdrive. The race now is to vaccinate enough people to prevent it ripping through the population and work out an acceptable risk level to enable opening up.

 

[jakeseven7]

Governments have proven that they love surcharges, as they can claim they aren’t a tax. Stand by for a surcharge for ‘budget recovery’. Not your budget, they don’t care about that.

Surcharge should be triple for those not vaccinated

Post automatically merged: Sep 5, 2021

Sadly I think it is the Covid Delta variant that is in overdrive. The race now is to vaccinate enough people to prevent it ripping through the population and work out an acceptable risk level to enable opening up.

Just to make the point again.. it is going to rip through the population. We are all going to get it. Vaccination does not prevent this. It limits the severity of the virus.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Don't disagree but when the health system cannot cope and people are denied, for example, cancer treatment because hospital beds are full of covid patients then it becomes an issue. Australia has barely been touched by covid yet.

Yes but... what about all the hospitalisations due to flu? Next year under an 'open' society the flu will be back so we'll have flu and covid cases clogging up the hospitals. Do we put a levy on those who don't get the flu vaccine as well?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Lots of exposure sites in Vic today. Does make one wonder if/when things will go the way of NSW...

 

[jakeseven7]

Lots of exposure sites in Vic today. Does make one wonder if/when things will go the way of NSW...

Of course it will.

VIC just has an advantage of having more people vaccinated at their time stamp is all.

 

[TonyHancock]

Just to make the point again.. it is going to rip through the population. We are all going to get it. Vaccination does not prevent this. It limits the severity of the virus.

Well, quite, let me correct my original post so it is clear for you.

"Sadly I think it is the Covid Delta variant that is in overdrive. The race now is to vaccinate enough people to prevent it ripping through the unvaccinated population and work out an acceptable risk level to enable opening up."

 

[TonyHancock]

Yes but... what about all the hospitalisations due to flu? Next year under an 'open' society the flu will be back so we'll have flu and covid cases clogging up the hospitals. Do we put a levy on those who don't get the flu vaccine as well?

I have no idea what you want to do about a levy I am just stating that there will be ethical decisions required because Covid cases may overrun the the hospital system.

 

[dajop]

OK, have been deliberately avoiding this thread for last two weeks, it's not good to take it too seriously.

Been back in Australia now for four weeks, 2 in HQ, 10 nights in WA, about to be 5 nights in Vic. Some observations.

1. WA: I can now fully understand the McGowan approach. Love him or hate him. Keep it to zero as long as they can. Travelling around WA for 9 days was like going back to 2019. Felt odd after 7 months straight of wearing masks every time I went outside (Singapore requirement), in fact took a few days to resist to the urge to not put a mask on when leaving the hotel room.
2. Melbourne's western suburbs. My partner has been there since arriving in Melbourne. It's all over. Melbourne will be worse than Sydney within 2 weeks. No one checking in. Large groups congregating by the river. Mask wearing sporadic and substandard. He reports even the staff at Woolworths Highpoint were only wearing their masks on their chins. Not good enough for Woolworths really.
3. Regional Victorian city, where I have been since arriving in Vic, been to a couple of supermarkets, everyone checking in (and asked at checkout if I had checked in), everyone wearing masks correctly. Mask wearing on street generally very good. Chalk and cheese. I guess there's still hope outside of Melbourne, and therefore people still making an effort.

 

[33kft]

2. Melbourne's western suburbs. My partner has been there since arriving in Melbourne. It's all over. Melbourne will be worse than Sydney within 2 weeks. No one checking in. Large groups congregating by the river. Mask wearing sporadic and substandard. He reports even the staff at Woolworths Highpoint were only wearing their masks on their chins. Not good enough for Woolworths really.

Just as a counter point, I live in this region and this has not been my observation at all. It's a nice narrative and I don't doubt some people have lost hope but if the suggestion is widescale blatant non-compliance, it is absolutely not what I am seeing nor am I seeing it noted anywhere that it would be (FB groups, etc).

The point about Melbourne's current condition is quite apt though, we are clearly not in a good place.

 

[dajop]

Just as a counter point, I live in this region and this has not been my observation at all. It's a nice narrative and I don't doubt some people have lost hope but if the suggestion is widescale blatant non-compliance, it is absolutely not what I am seeing nor am I seeing it noted anywhere that it would be (FB groups, etc).

That’s good to hear. Maybe it’s just a Highpoint thing. My partner has since commented that compliance at the nearby Aldi late this afternoon was much much better - both staff and customers. (Echos my own experiences just before Xmas when indoor masks compulsory - of the places I went to Highpoint had the worst compliance).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I'm curious why some modellers think Melbourne might be worse than Sydney.

Before taking account of the vaccine rollout - Vic is about 4-6 weeks behind NSW numbers - but probably Melb has also a higher Ro

Then with the vaccine rollout If Vic can reach a 1% per day on first dose, Vic is only 2 weeks behind where NSW is.

So overall the outcome should be 'better'....

Most NSW projections is a max of 3000 cases in the next two weeks. But there appears to be higher projections for Vic.......confused?!?!

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Hopefully enough of their rollout was the elderly and even if cases go high the hospital / deaths should not go like it did last year for melb.

 

[burmans]

View attachment 257567
Massive difference between Australia and the UK (81.2% vaccinated) though. High level of natural immunity in the UK compared to Australia. (Covid has been circulating for over 18 months) I fear this will be a problem.

Best thing UK did was open up when it did.

No offence but I’ll trust the BBC over what, the Daily Mirror?

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?

A look at progress made in vaccinating the country, as more than 52 million people have received at least one dose and 38 million have had a booster or third dose.

www.bbc.com

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

View attachment 257567
Massive difference between Australia and the UK (81.2% vaccinated) though. High level of natural immunity in the UK compared to Australia. (Covid has been circulating for over 18 months) I fear this will be a problem.

Best thing UK did was open up when it did.

No offence but I’ll trust the BBC over what, the Daily Mirror?

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?

A look at progress made in vaccinating the country, as more than 52 million people have received at least one dose and 38 million have had a booster or third dose.

www.bbc.com

Maybe one is of 18+ and the other 16+???

Edit: UK gov website (3rd graph) https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

...seems to say fully vax uptake is 79.6%

 

[moa999]

Most NSW projections is a max of 3000 cases in the next two weeks. But there appears to be higher projections for Vic.......confused?!?!

Very different Rs despite similar lockdowns (plus and minuses on both sides).

NSW has been very consistent at R in a 1.2-1.4 range for weeks.
Vic is more variable but it looks closer to 2.

If those trends hold then Victoria would pass 1000 in about 10 days and catch up to NSW before the end of September.

 

[TonyHancock]

No offence but I’ll trust the BBC over what, the Daily Mirror?

None taken. I trust neither and do not source my information from either.

 

[kpc]

This article spells out my concerns about the hospital system and the fact I don't think the NSW government is being honest with the public about relaxing restrictions at 80% vaccination rates: Michael Pascoe: Hard times ahead for NSW hospitals, other states worse

 

[Princess Fiona]

This article spells out my concerns about the hospital system and the fact I don't think the NSW government is being honest with the public about relaxing restrictions at 80% vaccination rates: Michael Pascoe: Hard times ahead for NSW hospitals, other states worse

That’s a good article. I concur with your thoughts. Will be interesting to see what if any modeling is released to the public by NSW Health