Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW Reff below 1 today

Which modeller? I see some not yet calling it so perhaps not unanimous.

 

[justinbrett]

NSW Reff below 1 today

Some have it just above, some have it just below - either way I think it's safe to say we've reached summit (not not necessarily the peak - just more or less the flat bit before it starts going down).

Using D/D-4 based on 5 day averages it's 1.0026, using the NSW Health daily tweet numbers (notice covidlive sometimes is different)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

For those who want to review the Freedom Day restrictions lifting (all which were leaked to Murdoch anyway).

Fully vaccinated people only so sorry anti vaxxers or slow coaches.

——-

Berejiklian outlines roadmap for Freedom Day​

Full details of NSW’s roadmap to freedom revealed

NSW’s roadmap to freedom has been revealed with 70 per cent double dose the target to ease restrictions on a number of industries.

The restrictions will be eased on the Monday after NSW hits 70 per cent double dose. Only fully vaccinated people and those with medical exemptions will have access to the freedoms allowed under the Reopening NSW roadmap.

Full details:

‘You’ve been warned’: Freedom catch for NSW

Welcome to our coverage of NSW’s Covid-19 situation.

www.news.com.au

anti-vaxxers are finding their nearest amenable medical contraindication exemption.

 

[jakeseven7]

Plenty of small businesses certainly don't, and lets face it, they're the vast portion of businesses in this country.

Cough, sweeping generalisation but your opinion I guess.

anti-vaxxers are finding their nearest amenable medical contraindication exemption.

Agree they will run screaming to their local soft touch….

But there apparently is going to be great scrutiny on medical professionals who issue exemptions. As there should be.

 

[andye]

Which modeller? I see some not yet calling it so perhaps not unanimous.

Covid19data.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW Reff below 1 today

Yes, until it’s not which will be in few weeks time once restrictions start relaxing Hopefully then we aren’t even talking about cases and the 10 different reff numbers floating around then….

 

[Must...Fly!]

As there should be.

Probably agree with you.

People often talk about going to see Dr How Long when they're not feeling "able" to get to work....

There will be an equivalent for the vaccines I'm sure. Someone I know appears to have a legitimate psychological reason against vaccination, wonder what sort of hoops they must have to jump through.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Probably agree with you.

People often talk about going to see Dr How Long when they're not feeling "able" to get to work....

There will be an equivalent for the vaccines I'm sure. Someone I know appears to have a legitimate psychological reason against vaccination, wonder what sort of hoops they must have to jump through.

The solution should also be electronic - so a GPs electronic signature is attached to the exemption to reduce scope for fraud (of course apart from hacking). But I fear the runway to implement such a system is too long.

 

[burmans]

The better measure is about 6 weeks from first dose % being reached. The current two-dose uptake rate really relates to what was happening 3-6 weeks ago. 70% double dose is a lock - NSW is 74-75% first dose.

Given the formula of first Monday after 70% double dose is reached, there is only a small chance of a variation from 18 October, even as early as 4 October is a possibility.

While it may seem obvious that everyone who has had a first dose will get a second the evidence from overseas seems to be that there is a percentage who don’t. I think with the incentives in place in NSW this is likely to be low just noting that first doses don’t automatically translate into second 6 weeks after.

 

[Seat0B]

It certainly seems that the unvaccinated will be doing their own form of personal lockdown in NSW once the 70% double jabbed target is reached. I think that is quite appropriate.

 

[burmans]

Which modeller? I see some not yet calling it so perhaps not unanimous.

Not sure it matters that much, I'd say we are very close but not quite there in terms of hitting peak but it's only a matter of a few days either way, noting that yes of course we have up days and down days but the trend is very clear and has been for a while now.

 

[justinbrett]

Not sure it matters that much, I'd say we are very close but not quite there in terms of hitting peak but it's only a matter of a few days either way, noting that yes of course we have up days and down days but the trend is very clear and has been for a while now.

Also the 1533 day was a statistical outlier - the max 5 day average has been 1400 (reached that twice on two non-consecutive days) - so even if the R eff continues above 1 before going below, that 1533 day may well have been the peak. On the flip side, we could have a single day exceeding that with a much lower 5 day average and R eff below 1.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

OOOO NSW press conference going to non-daily after sunday - called it, glad to see it

 

[justinbrett]

OOOO NSW press conference going to non-daily after sunday - called it, glad to see it

R eff continues downward trend, seems to be below 1 now (despite the highest number of cases).

They obviously like what they see.

 

[Spongbob]

Also the 1533 day was a statistical outlier [...]

So how do you describe the NSW number today of 1542?

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

R eff continues downward trend, seems to be below 1 now (despite the highest number of cases).

They obviously like what they see.

I think they know its going to get sticky for a month or so, and not much changes in these conferences, there is going to be more deaths and accepting that means not staring it in the face every day like we dont with drugs / alcohol / car accidents etc .... its part of living with it

 

[N860CR]

So how do you describe the NSW number today of 1542?

Id describe it as the number of people who returned a result that showed them “positive” for the virus, regardless of level of illness (if I’ll at all).

 

[justinbrett]

So how do you describe the NSW number today of 1542?

Do you want to be fair to me and quote my whole post where I said we may get an even higher case number despite a declining R eff below 1?

5 day average is 1386 today, slightly higher than yesterday (1374) but lower than most of the days before it, it gives an R eff of 0.98.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

LOLOL Reporters going off chop at losing their ability to shout the same question every day and get paid for it.

 

[N860CR]

LOLOL Reporters going off chop at losing their ability to shout the same question every day and get paid for it.

She does make a very good point. These politicians have a job to do, they were obviously doing other things before this virus popped up, so how can they be doing that when they spend each and every morning at these pointless press conferences.