Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[amaroo]

Forget worrying about Chinese and Italians, stay well away from Americans or anyone who’s returned for the US in the last 3 weeks!

TBH, that was dead set obvious well before that silly VIC doctor, with symptoms, continued to work and push the thing on many of his patients.

 

[amaroo]

With respect, that’s completely meaninglessness in context of the first reported cases. Give it two weeks then quote figures. If one looks at the exponential curve on infection rates, IMHO the US will overtake Italy in a few weeks.

I suppose, One can hope that's the case

 

[DC3]

... Give it two weeks then quote figures. If one looks at the exponential curve on infection rates, IMHO the US will overtake Italy in a few weeks.

And I get the impression that the USA has only just started to ramp-up testing.

 

[burmans]

The graphs of new cases are quite instructive. While still to early to tell, in many countries in Europe while the numbers don't seem to have totally stopped increasing the rate of increase has certainly slowed, I.e. the increase is no longer exponential and there is reasonable hope the numbers will stabilise.

No such confidence can be read into the US numbers where exponential rise is still clearly evident with no obvious end in sight.

 

[amaroo]

And I get the impression that the USA has only just started to ramp-up testing.

Impression or fact - very different things! Not sure anyone gives a toss about an impression - do you?

 

[drron]

With respect, that’s completely meaninglessness in context of the first reported cases. Give it two weeks then quote figures. If one looks at the exponential curve on infection rates, IMHO the US will overtake Italy in a few weeks.

You mean this curve.
.

And this is just the death rate.If deaths per million population the US is way below Italy.

 

[p--and--t]

With respect, that’s completely meaninglessness in context of the first reported cases. Give it two weeks then quote figures. If one looks at the exponential curve on infection rates, IMHO the US will overtake Italy in a few weeks.

If they sigificantly increase their rate of tests, IMHO, I give it no more than 5 days and the US will be well ahead of Italy in infections.

 

[amaroo]

Is this the "American Reports of the virus spread"?

Don't think so, have a read of the thread title....

 

[Julesmac]

The alcohol needs to be at a certain concentration. Maybe 60-90%, but happy to be corrected. Many alcoholic drinks are just not strong enough.

Heck I can double up on the gin then

 

[drron]

If they sigificantly increase their rate of tests, IMHO, I give it no more than 5 days and the US will be well ahead of Italy in infections.

Testing might not be all it's cracked up to be.

[WITHDRAWN: Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients] - PubMed

<span><b>Editor office’s response for Ahead of Print article withdrawn</b> The article “Potential false-positive rate among the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ in close contacts of COVID-19 patients” was under strong discussion after pre-published. Questions from the readers mainly focused...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

 

[TheRealTMA]

You mean this curve.
View attachment 210418.

And this is just the death rate.If deaths per million population the US is way below Italy.

I just don’t understand the barrow you are pushing here? Actually, the graph indicates that at day 25, the US could be at something like 4000+ deaths.

We have insufficient evidence yet to make definitive statements apart from the fact that the US is well behind in testing and reporting.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

You mean this curve.
View attachment 210418.

And this is just the death rate.If deaths per million population the US is way below Italy.

There is a also this chart. The important point is where the USA is heading and the steep gradient of their curve.

 

[dajop]

I think US and Italy comparisons are fallacious. In some ways it would be more analogous to compare state by state statistics in the US with country by country stats in Europe (and province by province in China). Clearly California and Maine have more geographical separation than Portugal and Finland.

New York State itself is definitely up there. If you excluded US from the list of countries and inserted states, then New York would be #8 globally. California, with the biggest population (40m) at this stage doesn’t have that many more cases than Australia.

Now looking at per head of population - and excluding countries with less than 100.000 people - surprisingly Iceland and Luxembourg top the number of cases per head of population. (and Sam Marino, an enclave of Italy actually has the highest rate of any country - perhaps not so surprising given its geographical location)

Of course these figures will change in the coming days.

 

[RooFlyer]

I think US and Italy comparisons are fallacious. In some ways it would be more analogous to compare state by state statistics in the US with country by country stats in Europe (and province by province in China).

Yes. I think a whole bunch of the comparisons and raw 'case number' type statistics are, if not fallacious, then misleading. The graph above labels just a few cases about the social structure & related. What about population density - at a national/state level? Some measure of test rates?

I'm not saying its easy, I'm saying its very difficult and national raw 'number of cases' graphs are OK to record raw numbers, but not useful for drawing many other conclusions.

 

[Must...Fly!]

TBH, that was dead set obvious well before that silly VIC doctor, with symptoms, continued to work and push the thing on many of his patients.

He did not have symptoms that at the time were commonly associated with COVID-19.

 

[pauly7]

I will make a general comment that there is a lot of medical data being spat out at the moment and is selectively being shared, randomly all over the place by random people including on AFF.

That doesn’t mean one is right or one is wrong and attacking it in that way isn’t very constructive.

 

[jb747]

No such confidence can be read into the US numbers where exponential rise is still clearly evident with no obvious end in sight.

Read this morning that some members of an evangelical church sued in an attempt to stop one state’s restrictions on meetings. I guess they’re planning on prayer to stop them catching it, or passing it around.

With these graphs, in general, they show coughulative number of infections (or some variation), but I don’t think I’ve seen any that are actually removing those who recover (or die, I guess).

 

[I love to travel]

If 7 people have died so far in Australia with over 1000 cases that puts our death rate lower than the John Hopkins data average. Let's hope that continues.

 

[drron]

No body really knows how this is going to end.This is the thread on Australian spread not US spread.If you look at news reports on the lockdowns in place in NYC and LA you see very few people on the streets.
Now look at our major cities.If you want to name a country that could have the situation turn horrific I suggest a country on our side of the Pacific may well end up that way.
Australians don't do well at being told what to do.

When you look at the countries that are so far doing better-Singapore,Hong Kong,Taiwan,Japan and South Korea they have a couple of things in common.First a population who are in some ways used to self isolation and are willing to go that extra mile.
Second governments who learnt from the SARS epidemic MERS and Swine Flu did have plans in place for similiar epidemics.Isolation and hygeine measures were rolled out immediately and policed.Australia and the USA really did not have such a model.

 

[drron]

And just to reinforce how hopeless we Aussies are this is a photo of Aldi Homebush at 1200 on Friday 20/3 taken by our neice.The place was closed until 4pm for restocking and this is the crowd waiting 4 hours before it opened.Taken by our niece.
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