Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Must...Fly!]

Just sinking in now how good this change is. Makes me so much more excited to go to Sydney next week

 

[jakeseven7]

Just sinking in now how good this change is. Makes me so much more excited to go to Sydney next week

It’s brilliant. Much celebration. You can’t get slammed into covid prison!

 

[Quickstatus]

approach to factor in mortality from other causes of death

Yea - see the ABS statistics - they have breakdowns for cardiac etc etc. Basically no change compared with 2015-2019

relevant if we are going to millions of cases

Millions of cases. But how many ICU cases? That’s the more important metric.

It’s all about managing the hospitalised/ICU/ventilated cases

If the modelling predicts ICU numbers into Red or black then we are going to flatten the curve - again.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yea - see the ABS statistics - they have breakdowns for cardiac etc etc. Basically no change compared with 2015-2019

Millions of cases. But how many ICU cases? That’s the more important metric.

It’s all about managing the hospitalised/ICU/ventilated cases

If the modelling predicts ICU numbers into Red or black then we are going to flatten the curve - again.

Some epidemiologists are saying Omicron is so transmissible any flattening measure used before will almost be useless against it if we want society to keep functioning…. And I’m not sure the population would even follow anything more draconian…

 

[Must...Fly!]

Some epidemiologists are saying Omicron is so transmissible any flattening measure used before will almost be useless against it if we want society to keep functioning…. And I’m not sure the population would even follow anything more draconian…

I think this is pretty obvious based on the opening up. Authorities know they can't get ahead of it, and can barely stay at pace with it. May as well get the economy going and deal with whatever happens later.

 

[Hvr]

May as well get the economy going and deal with whatever happens later.

Which economy? The retail/entertainment economy? I doubt it will return to pre-COVID figures for many years. Too many people have pivoted away from the old way of doing things. And way too many people don't have the money partake as they previously did.

And if the cost of healthcare exceeds the mooted benefits of 'reopening the old economy' then it will have been an expense that will still need to be repaid even while businesses have their hands out for welfare..

 

[oz_mark]

Which economy? The retail/entertainment economy? I doubt it will return to pre-COVID figures for many years. Too many people have pivoted away from the old way of doing things. And way too many people don't have the money partake as they previously did.

But by the same token, there are any number of people that are cashed up, having little to spend their money on.

 

[Must...Fly!]

And if the cost of healthcare exceeds the mooted benefits of 'reopening the old economy' then it will have been an expense that will still need to be repaid even while businesses have their hands out for welfare..

You make some good points, but I do think that much of our economy is built on sentiment and that is through the floor when the government has the whole city locked down and demanding workers across a whole state carry a permit with them to do their jobs....

 

[Quickstatus]

And way too many people don't have the money partake as they previously did.

And there is a lot of pent up demand with excess cash in the economy causing inflationary pressures in many sectors of the economy

The RBA forecasts in fact show a very resilient economy (pre Omicron)
- see public demand, real household disposable income, wage prices

There were a lot of the armageddon message circa Delta - millions will get infected, the hospitals will be overwhelmed and those seeking treatment will be left sitting in the gutter gasping for air. That never came to pass and the modelling all completely overestimating. Multiple lockdowns causes all sorts of other problems because society is multifaceted, not just Reff

People observed all that, and have since decided to work out their own strategies to “live” with Omicron/delta/etc etc. I suspect even the media has changed its reporting ever so slightly.

My scenario is this: everyone (use millions if you wish) eventually gets infected, with the economy purring along (and even the RBA putting out anti-inflationatory interest rate rises), while the ICU does not going into the code Black. So I am on the “Omicron-Bring-It-On” side.
Note the canary in the cage - there is no toilet paper hoarding this time.

If there is one sector still losing out, it is the office space real estate market. Maybe City apartment rentals as well

Essentially there has to be an economy to pay for all the healthcare and other social safety nets. The latest National Cabinet changes to “close contact” helps the economy to keep ticking over and the Premiers have all now discovered that they cannot forever lock Covid out.

 

[ketsuzei]

25k? Better get those testing numbers up! Although if they get 25k out of 150k tests then we might as well just say everyone’s had it and move on.

Close enough.

 

[antycbr]

Close enough.

The case positivity rate going up means that people who need to be tested are at least able to be tested. Given the widespread transmission as we pull travel and asymptomatic testing out of the queue the rate increasing is to be expected.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Does NSW government modelling look unders now? 25k by end of January was the 'preliminary' indication.

Modelling predicting 25,000 COVID cases a day by January in NSW was 'very preliminary'

The author of the COVID modelling report used by the NSW Health Minister to urge the community to stay vigilant ahead of a surge in cases backs his findings but says they were very preliminary.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SydneySwan]

Only 21,151 new cases ''reported'' in NSW today. Modelling out of date already. Maybe modelling was actually 250k by Jan end?

 

[Nathant123]

Makes me nervous as I’m meant to be flying internationally out of Sydney in two weeks!

 

[Must...Fly!]

What does the modelling on hospitalisation and ICU say? The only metric that matters...

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

What does the modelling on hospitalisation and ICU say? The only metric that matters...

NSW still 500 (39%) off previous hospital highs so still some time/capacity.

It's individual State/Territory capacity number that matter and when extending the ICU capacity gets 'called' to action.

But to me once lower levels of urgent surgery gets deferred to make room for expected COVID ICU, then that's the real marker that number of infections has hit hospital.

 

[Carrots]

Arh South Australia... we've done it again.

Following a national cabinet meeting on Thursday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison defined a close contact as anyone living with a confirmed Covid case, or an intimate partner of a confirmed case, would be consider close contacts.

He said the revised rules meant only people who share a home or accommodation and have spent at least four hours with the positive case would be forced into isolation.

But Prof Spurrier told ABC Radio Adelaide on Friday morning the announcement was essentially not relevant in SA.

“I guess here in South Australia, we’ve got our own way of doing our contact tracing,” Prof Spurrier said.

Covid confusion as South Australia goes it alone on close contact rules

 

[N860CR]

Close enough.

Yep. Seems like the best outcome. Bodies aren’t piling up on the streets. Virtually nobody is actually sick. Time to move on

 

[Must...Fly!]

Arh South Australia... we've done it again.



Covid confusion as South Australia goes it alone on close contact rules

To be fair I wouldn't paint the whole state with the brush of that woman. She is almost uniquely mad at this point.

 

[Pushka]

Just sinking in now how good this change is. Makes me so much more excited to go to Sydney next week

Arh South Australia... we've done it again.



Covid confusion as South Australia goes it alone on close contact rules

Can I use the F word here. Because that’s what we’ve both said. I’m done with QR check in completely now.