Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[exceladdict]

Likely half the population exposed to Covid with antibodies present according to some estimates

Covid will be endemic. More variants
And immunity tends to wane over time especially with respiratory illnesses.
“I’ll be back”

I am optimistic from the study quoted recently about omicron infection providing some residual immunity to delta. Hopefully also by late next year, multi-variant vaccines are coming onto the scenes, and/or start to be combined with flu shots.

 

[Quickstatus]

I think because we have not had exposure to flu and other lurgies these last 2 winters, that for the 2022 winter, lots will be non Covidly struck down.

Note: immunity from respiratory lurgies wane.

If you think that Covid is bad wait for the return of The ManFlu2022

 

[yohy?!]

Assuming the entire population is allowed to be infected then...

26mil Australian population
520,000 .... 1-2% of which will need go to hospital
26,000 .... 4-5% of those in hospital will die
(based on SA data to-date obv. subject to variation locally for Oz)

 

[DC3]

… wait for the return of The ManFlu2022

aka Wimpy Man Syndrome?

 

[oznflfan]

Assuming the entire population is allowed to be infected then...

26mil Australian population
520,000 .... 1-2% of which will need go to hospital
26,000 .... 4-5% of those in hospital will die
(based on SA data to-date obv. subject to variation locally for Oz)

Yes. Do you have an alternate plan? Scomo will be all ears.

 

[Quickstatus]

26mil Australian population

Let’s use some real data:
These are overall deaths from any cause for each week of the year

2015-2019 rage of deaths = shaded blue area

(Orange)2020 deaths within the 2015-2019 range
(Red) 2021 deaths higher than the 2015-2019 range but before the Covid Delta wave. Then when Covid delta wave hit the weekly death rate was no more than 2015-2019 - and in fact keeps going down - in line with other years.
And don’t forget vaccination rates in June,July,Aug very low

Also The Standardised death rate for 2020 was 4.9/1000 compared to 5.3/1000 in 2019

Now vaccinations rates are very high
Lots of immunity in community
And Omicron-Bring-it-On(TM) does not seem very dangerous..

Time will tell
But I have a feeling that mortality from Covid won’t be 26000

 

[Quickstatus]

And here is the deaths from pneumonia
Doing pretty well despite the Pandemic

 

[yohy?!]

Yes. Do you have an alternate plan? Scomo will be all ears.

A little self-discipline never goes astray

Post automatically merged: Dec 30, 2021

And here is the deaths from pneumonia
Doing pretty well despite the Pandemic

View attachment 268018

Nice but not sure how any of that is relevant if we are going to millions of cases and seeing how the hospitals cope?

Do you have an approach to factor in mortality from other causes of death who cannot be treated due to inability to get to hospital or receive treatment too?

 

[drron]

Tasmania today.First 2 hospital admissions.

 

[clifford]

Yes. Do you have an alternate plan? Scomo will be all ears.

Scomo? Ears?

 

[tgh]

“I’ll be back”

Indeed..(again)….
The whole world has bet the bank on the Classic model of viral evolution.
It should all be ok….

 

[Pushka]

And I guess people who live alone will never be a close contact either.

Post automatically merged: Dec 30, 2021

“I’ll be back”

Indeed..(again)….
The whole world has bet the bank on the Classic model of viral evolution.
It should all be ok….

What would you prefer them to do? Anything else is chaos theory.

 

[Pushka]

WA has reported another positive - close contact of the original backpacker who hadn't been isolating. It's a long time since the first case so not sure what is happening there now. Sad for the businesses that are impacted.

 

[tgh]

What would you prefer them to do

Whatever the populace wants, I guess.
I am probably a lone voice pondering the odds of this gamble…that's ok...

 

[Pushka]

What would you prefer them to do

Whatever the populace wants, I guess.
I am probably a lone voice pondering the odds of this gamble…that's ok...

No you aren't but honestly as I get older and wonder how many years I have left, that I want to live them and not ponder a future where I can't travel and well, I just want be normal again. See people smile. Smile at little kids and animals that are funny. Be with friends and not be concerned that they are infected. If that means I take risks then so be it. I'd rather do that than live to be 95 and wish I'd taken more risks and enjoyed my life. Not just exist it.

 

[jakeseven7]

So with this change in definition of close contact, there's no need for QR checkin anymore at the usual places?

Exactly. Again another waste of time in a majority of locations. Where do you spend 4 hours apart from work and home… a play? Flight? Long train?

 

[jakeseven7]

What would you prefer them to do

Whatever the populace wants, I guess.
I am probably a lone voice pondering the odds of this gamble…that's ok...

Remember individuals can always do what they want. One could literally go and stock up on food and spend a year at home - it’s a free country. That doesn’t mean everyone else has to though.

Enough has been done to protect the population we have excellent protection from 3 excellent vaccines and if people decide not to have them, or want to take additional measures to protect themselves from what they perceive as a threat to their life then there are many ways they can do it

 

[Carrots]

Personally I think it’s not anyones business regardless - this hyper sensationalised reporting makes me feel ill. Give the family a break.

I cannot wait until the centralised mass PCR testing is shut down / severely throttled back and the media has to report on something else.

Totally agree. It's hard to not think however that the media will whip it into a frenzy and then the hysteria begins, again.

 

[tgh]

My published caution does not reflect a personal hermit philosophy.
We have been out and about among the great unwashed and plan to continue.. risk modelling notwithstanding….

 

[justinbrett]

Exactly. Again another waste of time in a majority of locations. Where do you spend 4 hours apart from work and home… a play? Flight? Long train?

It’s only 4 hours in a domestic, accomodation or care setting. None of those examples make the cut.