Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A vast and overwhelming majority of people are going to be treated at home with some Panadol and a rest with some remote monitoring as required by Primary Care.

One of our workers in Sydney had it last week. 5 days and felt normal. ‘Like an annoying cold but I’ve had worse’ (double vaxxed).

Omicron conversion rate to ICU is 6x less than Delta from data overseas.

NSW reached a previous high 1268 hospitalised and 242 ICU in September 2021. If we use the 6x figure then when hospitalisation gets to 7,000-plus then its time to do something (eg streamline/defer 'elective' surgery)??? (Perhaps it might happen at a milestone figure like 5000)

Edit: I note there are almost 21,000 beds in NSW public hospitals at June 2020.

 

[Comoman]

Where was this reported.
Pretty good news

‘Up to half’ of NSW Covid hospital patients went in for something totally different and later tested positive in routine testing

With Covid cases going through the roof, we’re often asked to look at the rate of hospitalisation and deaths as a true indicator of the disease’s impact on our respective states and territories.

www.news.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW reached a previous high 1268 hospitalised and 242 ICU in September 2021. If we use the 6x figure then when hospitalisation gets to 7,000-plus then its time to do something (eg streamline/defer 'elective' surgery)??? (Perhaps it might happen at a milestone figure like 5000)

Edit: I note there are almost 21,000 beds in NSW public hospitals at June 2020.

But people presenting to hospital at all in the first place is also thought to be far far less for all the reasons we know about. What is hard to pin down is community prevalence… now they are thinking it is far far higher than they thought… but you know many people many opinions.

 

[RooFlyer]

No one tests asymptomatic people for the flu and there is no single test for the common cold. So eminent Tasmanian surgeons could well have gone to work with those conditions if they had no symptoms.

Sure; you'll see I carefully included "knowing"

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So a good proportion of those in hospital in NSW weren't hospitalised for Covid but something else and Covid was found in preliminary testing during admission.

Almost half… so perhaps it’s even milder than we think (also because of high vax rates etc) and potentially much more prevalent than the old 3x daily case method… maybe it’s more like 10x if people aren’t getting very ill. Which is actually a great thing!

Are some suggesting it might be better not to test for covid on admission?

 

[jakeseven7]

Sure; you'll see I carefully included "knowing"

But how would they know anyway if they had an asymptomatic case of the cold or flu was the point being made as those tests are not / cannot be done to verify in the first place… it makes zero sense.

Regardless it probably won’t even matter soon we are rapidly heading to endemic as it’s proving to be very mild and possible case numbers could be more than 10x reported…

Are some suggesting it might be better not to test for covid on admission?

I haven’t seen that mentioned?

 

[drron]

At least mrsdrron won't be spreading covid around on her return to QLD today -first negative RAT test this morning before flight this afternoon.

 

[Pushka]

Where was this reported.
Pretty good news

Apparently Hazzard mentioned it yesterday.

Post automatically merged: Jan 3, 2022

Are some suggesting it might be better not to test for covid on admission?

No that wouldn't be appropriate but maybe there could be a breakdown of the statistics so that this figure can be reported more accurately.

 

[drron]

And the figures quoted by Hazzard are still likely to over report of covid admissions.My SIL was admitted to hospital twice in the week after testing positive but neither was anything to do with covid.

 

[oznflfan]

If Feb 5 is not going ahead there will be a massive blow up from industry against the government. Many companies are planning around that date including a big FIFO shift which let’s be honest pay all WA’s bills. We have a major logistical lift happening which relies on Feb 5 as well and our advice is that it is still happening….

The question will be just how many hoops people will have to jump through. I imagine it will be many. Thankfully they are not allowed to use pre-PCR outside of their own state anymore and if they want to do it in WA it will be at their own cost and we all know how good WA Health are at organising anything…

A) In my opinion no chance he opens the borders on 5th Feb.
B) He will insist on pre-departure PCR tests to fly into WA, and simply put it back to travellers, you don't somehow find a way to get PCR test, you don't come to WA.

Gotta keep WA safe.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW (141,722 active – previous peak hospital/ICU: 1268/242 - September 2021)
25/12 6288 positives, 149k tests, 388 hospital, 52 ICU
26/12 6394 positives, 109k tests, 458 hospital, 52 ICU
27/12 6324 positives, 97k tests, 521 hospital, 55 ICU
28/12 6062 positives, 93k tests, 557 hospital, 60 ICU
29/12 11201 positives, 157k tests, 625 hospital, 61 ICU
30/12 12226 positives, 97k tests, 747 hospital, 63 ICU
31/12 21151 positives, 148k tests, 834 hospital, 69 ICU
1/1 22577 positives, 119k tests, 901 hospital, 79 ICU
2/1 18278 positives, 90k tests, 1066 hospital, 83 ICU
3/1 20794 positives, 96k tests, 1204 hospital, 95 ICU

Victoria (38,118 active – previous peak hospital/ICU: 851/163 - October 2021)
25/12 2108 positives, 83k tests, 361 hospital, 71 ICU
26/12 1608 positives, 72k tests, 374 hospital, 77 ICU
27/12 1999 positives, 57k tests, 368 hospital, 80 ICU
28/12 2738 positives, 66k tests, 361 hospital, 69 ICU
29/12 3767 positives, 75k tests, 397 hospital, 63 ICU
30/12 5137 positives, 81k tests, 395 hospital, 55 ICU
31/12 5919 positives, 66k tests, 428 hospital, 54 ICU
1/1 7442 positives, 63k tests, 451 hospital, 51 ICU
2/1 7172 positives, 48k tests, 472 hospital, 52 ICU
3/1 8577 positives, 44k tests, 491 hospital, 56 ICU

SA (12,342 active 2/1 – 4500 public hospital beds)
25/12 634 positives, 21.5k tests, 12 hospital 2 ICU
26/12 774 positives, 20.6k tests, 17 hospital, 3 ICU
27/12 842 positives, 18.0k tests, 23 hospital, 4 ICU
28/12 995 positives, 20.0k tests, 36 hospital, 5 ICU
29/12 1472 positives, 22.7k tests, 37 hospital, 3 ICU
30/12 1374 positives, 23.4k tests, 37 hospital, 4 ICU
31/12 2093 positives, 25.9k tests, 44 hospital, 4 ICU
1/1 2100 positives, 23.7k tests, 71 hospital, 4 ICU
2/1 2298 positives, 21.1k tests, 82 hospital, 7 ICU
3/1

Qld (20,239 active – 13,000 public hospital beds)
25/12 765 positives, 33.9k tests, 6 hospital
26/12 714 positives, 29.9 tests, 7 hospital
27/12 784 positives, 24.5k tests, 4 hospital
28/12 1158 positives, 32.0k tests, 6 hospital
29/12 1589 positives, 35.0k tests, 8 hospital
30/12 2222 positives, 35.7k tests, 29 hospital
31/12 3118 positives, 35.2k tests, 64 hospital, 1 ICU
1/1 2266 positives, 34.9k tests, 80 hospital, 1 ICU
2/1 3587 positives, 33.9k tests, 112 hospital, 5 ICU
3/1 4249 positives, 30.8k tests, 147 hospital, 10 ICU

ACT (2116 active – 1200 public hospital beds)
25/12 no update
26/12 71 positives, no tests noted, 1 hospital, 0 ICU
27/12 189 positives, 4.4k tests, 1 hospital
28/12 252 positives, 3.2k tests, 3 hospital
29/12 138 positives, 3.1k tests, 4 hospital
30/12 253 positives, 4.2k tests, 6 hospital
31/12 462 positives, 4.6k tests, 6 hospital
1/1 448 positives, 3.5k tests, 9 hospital
2/1 506 positives, 3.6k tests, 9 hospital, 1 ICU
3/1 514 positives, 3.5k tests, 11 hospital, 2 ICU

NT (394 active 2/1 – 1000 public hospital beds)
25/12 19 positives (8 local), 1.9k tests, 19 hospital, 1 ICU
26/12 12 positives (4 local), 1.4k tests, 18 hospital, 1 ICU
27/12 13 positives (2 local), 1.7k tests, 15 hospital, 1 ICU
28/12 16 positives (5 local), 1.1k tests, 20 hospital, 1 ICU
29/12 no update
30/12 37 positives (9 local), 3.6k tests, 21 hospital, 0 ICU
31/12 60 positives (11 local - outbreak 167) 2.7k tests, 24 hospital, 0 ICU
1/1 54 positives (21 under investigation, 6 local), 2.6k tests, 21 hospital, 0 ICU
2/1 95 positives (28 under investigation, 14 local), 1.9k tests, 26 hospital, 0 ICU
3/1

Tasmania (1691 active – 1500 public hospital beds)
25/12 33 positives, 437.6k coughulative tests, 1 hospital (but not for covid)
26/12 44 positives, 439.6k coughulative tests, 1 hospital (but not for covid)
27/12 35 positives, 441.0k coughulative tests, 1 hospital (but not for covid)
28/12 43 positives, 442.4k coughulative tests, 1 hospital (but not for covid)
29/12 55 positives, 446.8k coughulative tests 1 hospital (but not for covid)
30/12 92 positives, 449.0k coughulative tests, 3 hospital
31/12 137 positives, 451.1k coughulative tests, 4 hospital
1/1 428 positives, 452.6k coughulative tests, 2 hospital
2/1 404 positives, 454.3k coughulative tests, 3 hospital
3/1 466 positives, 1.9k tests, 2 hospital

WA (39 active 2/1 – 5900 public hospital beds)
25/12 6 local positives, 8.6k tests
26/12 0 local positives, 3.3k tests
27/12 1 local positive, 4.7k tests
28/12 no local positives, 4.9k tests
29/12 no local positives, 4.3k tests
30/12 3 local positives, 5.1k tests
31/12 1 local positives, 5.1k tests
1/1 2 local positives, 5.5k tests
2/1 1 local positive (backpacker 16, HQ leak 1), 2.9k tests
3/1

 

[exceladdict]

close contacts (by the old def)

Haha so someone who actually has a reasonable probability of having caught it from a positive case? As opposed to a household contact.

(not suggesting the policy of forcing isolating under the previous definition (indoor exposure for a reasonable period of time) was workable amidst mass transmission - but that we should use words that mean what they say)

So a good proportion of those in hospital in NSW weren't hospitalised for Covid but something else and Covid was found in preliminary testing during admission.

My concern is vulnerable people avoid going to hospital because of the chance they will catch covid, or, can't avoid hospital and end up catching it while there. I don't have a solution, but we need to do something to ensure a safe environment for vulnerable people who are dependent on hospitals (cystic fibrosis etc).

If Feb 5 is not going ahead there will be a massive blow up from industry against the government. Many companies are planning around that date including a big FIFO shift which let’s be honest pay all WA’s bills. We have a major logistical lift happening which relies on Feb 5 as well and our advice is that it is still happening….

The question will be just how many hoops people will have to jump through. I imagine it will be many. Thankfully they are not allowed to use pre-PCR outside of their own state anymore and if they want to do it in WA it will be at their own cost and we all know how good WA Health are at organising anything…

A) In my opinion no chance he opens the borders on 5th Feb.
B) He will insist on pre-departure PCR tests to fly into WA, and simply put it back to travellers, you don't somehow find a way to get PCR test, you don't come to WA.

Gotta keep WA safe.

I think unless we see nsw/vic hospitals overwhelmed in the next two weeks, 5th feb goes ahead, pre-departure tests remain, PCR on arrival with quarantine until result received.

As of tomorrow, I predict vertical consumption returns but indoor masks remain at public venues (or perhaps only at venues over a certain capacity plus public transport and ubers). I would like one last mask-free month, but probably think that's an outside chance.

 

[Quickstatus]

you could probably cover a second ward of nurses for urgent surgery

Assuming there is space to open another ward
Assuming there are nurses to staff those ward.

In general both are no.
all extra capacity generally come from existing resources - would be be a redeployment.

During delta wave, "extra" ICU capacity would have come from the redeployment of nurses and Drs into areas similar to their expertise but not their usual area of expertise.

We have had beds close and surgery postponed due to lack of nurses.
Certainly if a surgeon is sick then those patients can often be slotted into another surgeons workload or postponed but from experience it is no nurses, no beds rather than no drs no treatment

years and years and years

same here in NSW

I don't think any health care worker - but more particularly the high-level surgeons & specialits I was talking about - would attend work knowing they had a communicatable disease

Correct. However in general on anyone day an on any one ward, each nursing shift would see one or more member take sick leave.
Drs taking sick leave? - very unusual - even the hospital salary ones.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Also Tasmania has not yet brought in mandatory covid testing for HCW.

That's very surprising to me.

 

[Quickstatus]

admitted to hospital twice in the week after testing positive but neither was anything to do with covid.

Exactly,

How is this new? just because its Omicron-bring-it-on?

I dont have the numbers but even with Delta, significant numbers of people were admitted to hospital with Covid. But the reason for hospital admission was not Covid.

Personally I remember:
3 were to give birth
2 were for fractured hip
3?? or was it 4?? for abdominal surgery

today 1 for fractured pelvis after falling off bike - yes Covid positive via PCR prior to falling off bike.

It is a really simple concept. If you have high blood pressure and you fell and broke your hip, did you come in for high blood pressure or for a broken hip.
Granted the high blood pressure may affect your treatment, but the reason is not the blood pressure - because but for the hip fracture you would not have presented to hospital.

It is not hard to work out who came in with covid and who came in for covid.
Now the Govt (Hazzard) is saying some of the admissions are not for covid? and they did not know before?
They did know. See here and the screenshot of the relevant paragraph

2988 admissions in hospital with covid, but only 372 admissions related to covid.
And only the corrected covid admissions were posted.
This is reflected in the official data - see any of the covid tracking websites - such as covidlive.com.au
Are we to believe that the official data is now incorrectly not eliminating the "with covids" and only including the "for covids"

 

[drron]

But previously big numbers were convenient for scaring people.
Now they are inconvenient for selling the live with covid approach.

 

[RooFlyer]

Assuming there is space to open another ward
Assuming there are nurses to staff those ward.

In general both are no.
all extra capacity generally come from existing resources - would be be a redeployment.

During delta wave, "extra" ICU capacity would have come from the redeployment of nurses and Drs into areas similar to their expertise but not their usual area of expertise.

We have had beds close and surgery postponed due to lack of nurses.
Certainly if a surgeon is sick then those patients can often be slotted into another surgeons workload or postponed but from experience it is no nurses, no beds rather than no drs no treatment

OK, I have no doubt that you have more knowledge on the health/hospital system than me, but in correcting me, taking it away from some fairly specific situations I'm talking about:

* Tasmania, where its very unlikely that patients can be slotted into another surgeon's workload, if that surgeon can't attend at short notice - due to shallow depth of surgeons here, meaning already over-workloaded specialists etc just can't slot in additonal patients;

* Nurses found to staff urgent surgery if, say several of the nurses sheduled to attend theatre are ruled out. I reckon, without specific knowledge, that you could find them more easily than a replacement for the surgeon here.

Anyway, I still mantain that opening borders (which I generally approve of) might, possibly/probably will have severe knock-on effects to the hospital system, not due to covid patients occupying beds/ICU and health professional resources, which is increasingly the measure of 'success' in the health care system coping with covid, but due to depeltion of critical heath care workers, esp the 'top end' and especially here in Tas, where we don't have a significant depth of those in the 'top end' (with due respect to GPs, nurses and the rest ).

That is: "Hooray, only 2 patients in ICU, 25 hospitalised in Tasmania, our hospital system is coping!" might be disguising that the entire hospital system in Tasmania has ground to a halt due to sickness of critical health care workers (due to covid, due to borders being opened and the beginnings of covid endemia). A metric somehow measuring the latter would be handy. Surgery wait-times could be one, although here in Tas I think we already have the worst in the country ... electives in ?most categories measured in many months, so any change will be difficult to discern.

 

[oz_mark]

A) In my opinion no chance he opens the borders on 5th Feb.
B) He will insist on pre-departure PCR tests to fly into WA, and simply put it back to travellers, you don't somehow find a way to get PCR test, you don't come to WA.

Gotta keep WA safe.

The current stated rules on PCR tests pre-travel will change (it's not viable).

 

[Quickstatus]

metric somehow measuring the latter would be handy

Don’t disagree when what you are saying.
But in the main the shortage of “treatment” will be driven by a shortage in nursing.

That metric is know every day.
At my place, the place is quiet as it is holiday mode but I counted 12 nurses unable to come as they are Covid or close contact.

 

[Tiki]

If there is a shortage of nurses locally, can't they recruit from overseas? I know that most hospitals in the Gulf countries are staffed by well qualified nurses and doctors from Asia (Phillippines, India mostly). Maybe these people would prefer to work in Australia if offered the chance?