Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The 5 to 11 years will be able yo get vaccines starting from 10 January and it gives a bit of time for parents to vaccinate the children before going back to school.

Not read ATAGI guidelines, but I think I heard that second dose for that age range was like 6 weeks - so even if you were a parent quick off the mark - that's like 21 Feb?!?! Plus 2 weeks for full immunity....are we even sure it helps against Omicron, which seems to bypass 2 doses?!?! Adults going for 3rds

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Hospitals are not under strain due to unvaxxed covid patients in Hospital. Nor indeed with vaxxed covid patients who now make up over 50% in some States.
Here is the data of hospital discharges for 2019/20. Incidentally the numbers were down by 2.8% in Australia compared to 2018/19.

Table 1: Separations(a) with a COVID-19 diagnosis(b), states and territories, Australia, 2019–20
	U07.1 [COVID-19, virus identified]	U07.2 [COVID-19, virus not identified]	Separations with a COVID-19 diagnosis	U06.0, COVID-19, ruled out(c)	Total separations
New South Wales	750	65	815​	32,189	3,062,899
Victoria	267	58	325​	33,163	2,859,387
Queensland	1,008	14	1022​	16,478	2,725,004
Western Australia	146	0	146​	5,908	1,116,312
South Australia	208	9	217​	1,977	783,707
Tasmania	58	1	59​	970	224,948
Australian Capital Territory	15	1	16​	1,316	170,656
Northern Territory	26	2	28​	1,876	195,099
Total	2,478	150	2,628	93,877	11,138,012

Current numbers in hospital with covid today.
NSW -1738 .Does that number compared with 3 million discharges in 2019/20 suggest NSW is overwhelmed by numbers?

Victoria -644 v 2859387 discharges in 2018/19.

Tasmania - 8 v 224948 discharges in 2018/19.

So it is not covid case numbers. The problem as it was pre covid is staffing. I have worked in all States except Victoria. Each State relies on Agency nurses to keep staff levels for nursing reasonable.This was pre covid. In those days a lot of those temporary nurses were from OS and that supply has dried up.
The next problem is staff unavailable due to isolation requirements. Today here there are ~ 40 nurses down due to this. As well 9 junior doctors have been required to isolate in the last 2 days.
None of the nay sayers have come up with any plan to ease this situation. It would not have been helped by increasing vaccinations as there are virtually no HCW that are not fully vaccinated. There are a few with legitimate exemptions.

So around Australia people are waking up to the fact that the Australian Health system has been struggling for years. The simplest but yet the most difficult in practical terms would be to cut the bureaucracy by at least 10% and replace them with frontline HCW. In 2005 the DG of QLD Health admitted under oath that 60% of the Heath Department's budget went on non clinical staff. It almost certainly has got worse since. From my experience QLD is unfortunately not the worst in this respect.

It does lead to a general question - what is the current hospital and ICU occupancy (all patients) % v staffed beds

 

[jakeseven7]

Oh dear. No kids at school means at least one parent needs to be at home (at least for kids say under 10-12)

All the parents in our team are furious

(They were clearly looking forward to THEIR holiday!!)

 

[Quickstatus]

what is the current hospital and ICU occupancy

See some data Here

Though the way the stats are done are not exactly the way your question is posed:

And here is where you look for stats definitions. Always read the fine print…

 

[nutwood]

So around Australia people are waking up to the fact that the Australian Health system has been struggling for years. The simplest but yet the most difficult in practical terms would be to cut the bureaucracy by at least 10% and replace them with frontline HCW. In 2005 the DG of QLD Health admitted under oath that 60% of the Heath Department's budget went on non clinical staff. It almost certainly has got worse since. From my experience QLD is unfortunately not the worst in this respect.

According to Parkinson's Law, admin staff will increase at a rate of between 5.17% and 6.56% every year, "..irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done.".

 

[nutwood]

With regard to vaccinated v non-vaccinated hospital admissions, the figures are hard to interpret without considering the number of vaccinated people walking about. If 92% of the Tasmanian population are vaccinated, that leaves only 8% unvaccinated and as that number gets smaller, behaviour becomes a significant factor. Whether that 8% is formed from determined party animals or a reclusive religious sect starts to become relevant.

 

[drron]

With regard to vaccinated v non-vaccinated hospital admissions, the figures are hard to interpret without considering the number of vaccinated people walking about. If 92% of the Tasmanian population are vaccinated, that leaves only 8% unvaccinated and as that number gets smaller, behaviour becomes a significant factor. Whether that 8% is formed from determined party animals or a reclusive religious sect starts to become relevant.

But todays Tassie data shows that we are up to 96.87 % with one dose. So just 3% completely unvaxxed.

 

[Pushka]

When its happened previously in other States/Territories usually emergency workers get an exemption/exception for their kids.

Yes but if childcare has to close for infection? That takes out several GP’s in just one clinic I know well.

 

[N860CR]

If planning to travel internationally in near term and test positive on RAT, then yes register it so can get a recovery clearance certificate to fly, as you may still test PCR positive. This is a travel benefit not a health benefit.

This creates an interesting situation. PCR tests were verified, however a RAT really cannot be.

What would stop one from claiming a “positive” RAT, chilling for 7 days then getting their recovery certificate? Totally removes the stress of a PCR test 72 hours prior to departure.

That assumes we continue with this pointless need for PCR testing prior to travel.

 

[jakeseven7]

This creates an interesting situation. PCR tests were verified, however a RAT really cannot be.

What would stop one from claiming a “positive” RAT, chilling for 7 days then getting their recovery certificate? Totally removes the stress of a PCR test 72 hours prior to departure.

That assumes we continue with this pointless need for PCR testing prior to travel.

I would never do this, but the thought had definitely crossed my mind - gets you out of testing for 3 months and also isolating!

 

[MARTINE]

I find one of the worst recent medicopolitical decisions that exacerbated health care delivery of an already stretched system (all my family work in healthcare at all levels and backgrounds so I concur with @drron that it was under stress preCovid - although others may dispute this) was leisure PCR testing.

..to waste limited highly skilled staff to perform tests (many of which were never even looked at) is a disgrace and only possible in a country as rich as this. There was no public health utility -and - I would argue more public health detriment; by which I mean eroding safety system trust, National unity and expecting people to accept surgery cancellations

 

[Lynda2475]

Anna is not sending kids back to school in the middle of a Omicron outbreak and will look to delay the start of school term date

Seems an odd call, especially for highschool. Grade 8 (and half of grade 7) and above are all over 12 so have had months to get fully vaxed as have all teachers.

1st Grade to 7th grade (and about 60% of Kindergartern/Prep) are all over 5 so shoud have had first dose before school starts and seconf dose before end of term 1.

Surely only imuno compromised students should be kept at home.

This decision will just create more staff shortages is essential workplaces are parents of primary age kids need to saty home to mind kids who could safely be at school.

 

[Lynda2475]

This creates an interesting situation. PCR tests were verified, however a RAT really cannot be.

What would stop one from claiming a “positive” RAT, chilling for 7 days then getting their recovery certificate? Totally removes the stress of a PCR test 72 hours prior to departure.

That assumes we continue with this pointless need for PCR testing prior to travel.

That thought had occured to me.

 

[OZDUCK]

In WA the mask mandate will be loosened at 6 pm tonight.

"Masks will now only be mandatory in vulnerable locations such as hospitals, public transport, taxis, and rideshare vehicles."

 

[burmans]

Am wondering when those British/Irish nurses we have traditionally relied on will start returning. Surely summer in Oz is starting to look attractive again?

 

[drron]

Am wondering when those British/Irish nurses we have traditionally relied on will start returning. Surely summer in Oz is starting to look attractive again?

Not only nurses.Every year I have worked with several UK/Irish junior doctors usually at Registrar level.Particularly common here in Tasmania. i have even worked with 3 this year in Tasmania as they were too slow off the mark to get home before the borders closed. One went home in February and the other 2 at the beginning of November.

 

[andye]

Am wondering when those British/Irish nurses we have traditionally relied on will start returning. Surely summer in Oz is starting to look attractive again?

Will be interesting to see whether confidence is affected. I had a small sample of opinions on my recent UK trip but the British perception seems to be that Australia is very restrictive in the face of Covid. Borders aside, this isn't the reality IMO (maybe Melbourne excepted). However, the removal of the idea that you are only a 24h plane flight from home may blunt recruitment.

 

[antycbr]

Will be interesting to see whether confidence is affected. I had a small sample of opinions on my recent UK trip but the British perception seems to be that Australia is very restrictive in the face of Covid. Borders aside, this isn't the reality IMO (maybe Melbourne excepted). However, the removal of the idea that you are only a 24h plane flight from home may blunt recruitment.

Exhibit 1: Western Australia, who is only one step removed from HKG in terms of entry restrictions.

 

[oz_mark]

In WA the mask mandate will be loosened at 6 pm tonight.

"Masks will now only be mandatory in vulnerable locations such as hospitals, public transport, taxis, and rideshare vehicles."

Interestingly, it is moving into line with what they were proposing for Feb 5. Which makes me wonder if they will remove the remaining requirements at all.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

Anecdotally, I have spent some time back in hospital this week, admitted to the cardiac ward of a private Sydney hospital through their emergency department. For what it's worth, based on everything I observed and overheard I would guess that every second person arriving to emergency was COVID positive, with around half of these presenting with non-COVID symptoms (e.g. broken leg) and the other half presenting with COVID-like symptoms (e.g. difficulty breathing).

The emergency department felt somewhat busy/chaotic, but at least appeared organised (from my medically untrained perspective). Presenting with my ongoing cardiac issues, I was taken straight to a bed in emergency, so I assume no major issues in finding beds when needed. After this, the team ran their tests and determined that I was in a stable condition. Based on this, the team politely explained that there would be some delays in coming up with a treatment plan and ultimately in finding and transferring me to a bed in the cardiac ward. I was, of course, completely understanding of this.

Funnily enough, I overheard one of the nurses (jokingly) saying she wished she would catch the virus so that she could have some time off work

In my view, those with major, but non-urgent health issues are being majorly impacted by the pandemic. And this isn't just with respect to elective surgery being postponed.