Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Gremlin]

I wanted to comment on the tone of the NSW press conference today in comparison to what we heard last week. Whilst the language in the media briefing part was no different to what we'd seen previously, there were a couple of times in the Q&A where it felt like the mask slipped from Gladys. One particular comment that struck me in answering a question was that "we still have a chance to get ahead of the virus and control its spread..."

That's a long, long way from the very positive, very definitive and in control Gladys who was fronting the media at the end of last week. "We still have a chance" suggests something that's no longer within the sphere of control. Seriously concerning...

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW going warming their citizens up with masks advice if cannot socially distance....


--------

Coronavirus: Sydney inner city suburbs hit again, Sydneysiders advised to wear masks


Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced another 20 cases of coronavirus for NSW overnight, most from community transmission.

An inner-city Sydney pub and restaurant are the latest venues to be impacted by the growing COVID-19 outbreak, with visitors urged to look out for symptoms.

Paddington’s The Village Inn and Love Supreme have both been visited by a confirmed coronavirus case, according to NSW Health.

Ms Berejiklian told reporters on Monday the increase – the biggest the state has seen in months – had left her “incredibly concerned”. Residents are now being urged to wear masks where they cannot socially distance, and to reconsider going anywhere where there are large crowds.

Dr Chant said a mask would not be a “silver bullet” against coronavirus, but part of an effective tool set to fight the virus, which also includes social distancing and proper hygiene practices.

NSW sees biggest COVID surge in months

Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced another 20 cases of coronavirus for NSW overnight, most from community transmission.

www.news.com.au

 

[SydneySwan]

Coronavirus: Sydney inner city suburbs hit again, Sydneysiders advised to wear masks

Ms Berejiklian told reporters on Monday the increase – the biggest the state has seen in months – had left her “incredibly concerned”. Residents are now being urged to wear masks where they cannot socially distance, and to reconsider going anywhere where there are large crowds.

NSW sees biggest COVID surge in months

Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced another 20 cases of coronavirus for NSW overnight, most from community transmission.

www.news.com.au

My emphasis. We really need a table of degrees of concerned? Gladys used 'very' concerned last week so I assume 'incredibly' concerned is worse. The numbers went from 18 to 20. I know many will disagree but I prefer to know specifically what the plan is? What are the trigger points for further action?

 

[dajop]

Still find it interesting that it seems NSW transmission at this stage seems to be caused by socialising whilst in VIC it seems to be more about transmission in workplaces and private homes.

 

[moa999]

Still find it interesting that it seems NSW transmission at this stage seems to be caused by socialising whilst in VIC it seems to be more about transmission in workplaces and private homes.

Over half the NSW Crossroads cluster never visited the pub, so were mostly home transfer.
As I understand the Vic school cluster is also thought to have been mostly spread at an event.

 

[dajop]

Over half the NSW Crossroads cluster never visited the pub, so were mostly home transfer.
As I understand the Vic school cluster is also thought to have been mostly spread at an event.

OK got it. These sort of messages never get through. Far too complicated for new services or the public.

 

[SydneySwan]

OK got it. These sort of messages never get through. Far too complicated for new services or the public.

One of the worrying aspects of the Crossroads cluster was the speed with which contacts of contacts were testing positive for the virus. NSW health expressed the view that the virus was becoming more virulent and aggressive (can't remember the exact words).

 

[get me outta here]

Well apparently the NBN failed them and they don't have the bandwidth to have a virtual meeting, so they say.

I think the PM needs to put his personal views about border closures aside and get the national cabinet back together to come up with a national solution for border communities. Bottom line is we have a problem in VIC NSW and maybe ACT if Batemans Bay spread happens. Time to flatten the curve again.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

My emphasis. We really need a table of degrees of concerned? Gladys used 'very' concerned last week so I assume 'incredibly' concerned is worse. The numbers went from 18 to 20. I know many will disagree but I prefer to know specifically what the plan is? What are the trigger points for further action?

Unfortunately there is no plan.......

They seemed locked into no lockdown. They were only doing Phases (my term) for hotspot venues - Phase 1 Is name and watch for symptom, Phase 2 when 3 cases (ie transmission likely at the venue) is isolate and test regardless of symptoms and test result, who know what Phase 3 will be.....now the masks recommendation.

My feeling is NSW is now at over 20 sites in total with about 7 ‘Phase 2’ sites....

NSW being the biggest part of the National economy will need to chat with the PM because of the financial implications of going to even Stage 3 restrictions (ie stay at home except essential activity) - so quite a bit at play.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Over half the NSW Crossroads cluster never visited the pub, so were mostly home transfer.
As I understand the Vic school cluster is also thought to have been mostly spread at an event.

OK got it. These sort of messages never get through. Far too complicated for new services or the public.

The initial message from Vic was it was families, but in the last little while (I feel really only the last few days) they’ve come out and said it’s workplaces (I read an article saying 80%)

For NSW It feels like about 1/2 seems to be at venues - if I remember correctly the Crossroad seeding event got 14 people on 3/7. Every Phase 2 hotspot venue (eg Thai Rock, Gym at Casula, Batemans Bay Club, Crossroads on 5/7) that is under 14 day isolation regardless of test result or symptoms, there has been a likely transmission at the venue.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

One of the worrying aspects of the Crossroads cluster was the speed with which contacts of contacts were testing positive for the virus. NSW health expressed the view that the virus was becoming more virulent and aggressive (can't remember the exact words).

I feel the speed is because this strain is about 24 hours from exposure to infectious, of course it could be longer.....and picking up results has taken a week (noticing symptoms, getting tested, getting result, doing initial contact tracing).

So NSW is well on defence and reactive - playing a big catch up game - with evidence of up to 4 cycles/generations between exposure and publicising the venue risk.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As I understand the Vic school cluster is also thought to have been mostly spread at an event.

It depends which school.

There was one school where it was mainly from a social event that adults attended and then rippled out including to the kids. Many pf he same adults had kids at the same school.

There was a number of schools that arose from a family gathering to celebrate Ramadan ending. But there were also many independant catholic schools showing up at the same time.

Other schools it was mainly the adults catching it from various sources, but then infecting their kids who then attended school. There has been commentary suggesting parent to parent contact.

Al-Taqwa College is the odd one out as it had student to transmission amongst the older (VCE) students who in effect have more adult like bodies. However the commentary I heard on this was that the actual transmission between these students was thought to have occurred by those students socialising with each other. And there are parents and whole families now infected. I have not seen any specific commentary on what caused patient zero at this college.

The commentary has suggested that many of the early clusters in this second wave were genomically linked to the security guards and later cases and clusters mainly, if not totally have that same genomic trail.

 

[Gremlin]

Unfortunately there is no plan.......

They seemed locked into no lockdown. They were only doing Phases (my term) for hotspot venues - Phase 1 Is name and watch for symptom, Phase 2 when 3 cases (ie transmission likely at the venue) is isolate and test regardless of symptoms and test result, who know what Phase 3 will be.....now the masks recommendation.

My feeling is NSW is now at over 20 sites in total with about 7 ‘Phase 2’ sites....

NSW being the biggest part of the National economy will need to chat with the PM because of the financial implications of going to even Stage 3 restrictions (ie stay at home except essential activity) - so quite a bit at play.

Politically it's a big decision too. As I mentioned earlier, the Vic outbreak came from a blindspot, but what's happened in NSW is exactly the scenario that "Test and Trace" was meant to quash quickly and easily. A small scale outbreak at The Crossroads is almost the archetypal example of where "Test and Trace" should, in theory, work. And there's every chance it's failing at its first real test.

Both Gladys and ScoMo have banked pretty heavily on the "Test and Trace" model. Suppression, as a strategy for economic recovery, relies on it working every single time in situations exactly like this. If it fails here then both are likely to have to acknowledge through either actions or words that their baby is ugly and no politician likes to do that. Moreover, it would also drive a major rethink as to what 'living with the virus' actually looks like in Australia - no point having a suppression strategy if you can't demonstrably suppress the virus.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic DHHS Daily Report:

My bolding.

You will note that in today's report that there are a lot of new schools with cases.


Media release
20 July 2020

Victoria has recorded 275 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 5942.
The overall total has increased by 246, after 29 cases were reclassified – largely due to duplication.

Within Victoria, 28 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 247 are under investigation.
One new death has been reported since yesterday a woman in her 80s. To date, 39 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.
In Victoria at the current time:

• 1060 cases may indicate community transmission
• 2913 cases are currently active in Victoria
• 147 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 31 in intensive care
• 2933 people have recovered from the virus
• Of the total cases, 5456 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 348 are from regional Victoria
• Total cases include 3082 men and 2830 women
• More than 1,331,000 tests have been processed
• Total number of healthcare workers: 429, active cases: 164 (of which the vast majority were acquired in the community)

Cases currently linked to public housing in North Melbourne, Flemington and Carlton are as follows:

• 287 cases are residents of various public housing towers in North Melbourne and Flemington. Investigations are continuing into how these cases are linked.
• 54 cases are residents of various public housing towers in Carlton. Investigations are continuing into if and/or how these cases are linked.

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:

• 173 cases have been linked to Al-Taqwa College
• 57 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham
• 36 cases have been linked to JBS in Brooklyn
• 4 cases have been linked to Nestle Campbellfield
• 12 cases have been linked to Australian Lamb Company in Colac
• 5 cases have been linked to Australian Pharmaceutical Industries in Dandenong South
• 13 cases have been linked to Goodman Fielder Pampas in West Footscray
• 13 cases have been linked to St Basil’s Homes for the Aged in Fawkner
• 40 cases have been linked to Estia Health in Ardeer
• 28 cases have been linked to Glendale Aged Care facility in Werribee
• 18 cases have been linked to the Royal Melbourne Hospital Royal Park campus
• 20 cases have been linked to LaManna Supermarket in Essendon Fields
• 14 cases have been linked to Embracia Aged Care Moonee Valley in Avondale Heights
• 5 cases have been linked to Japara Central Park Aged Care Home in Windsor

The following schools have closed for cleaning and further investigation following notification of a case.

• Charles La Trobe College
• Roxburgh College
• Overport Primary School
• Drysdale Primary School
• Toorak Primary School
• Princes Hill Secondary College
• Pascoe Vale Girls Secondary College
• Grovedale West Primary School
• Victorian College of the Arts Secondary School
• Trinity College Colac
• Parkville College - Malmsbury Campus
• Leibler Yavneh College

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Details of today’s NSW case total of 20:

The 20 new cases include:

• Three people who were contacts of cases linked to the Crossroads Hotel cluster
• Eight people associated with the Thai Rock Restaurant in Stockland Mall Wetherill Park, including four who attended the restaurant and four close contacts
• Four people associated with the Bateman’s Bay Soldiers Club, including two diners, one staff member and a contact of the previously reported cases
• Four overseas travellers in hotel quarantine
• One person who was infected while in Victoria who entered NSW before the border restrictions were in place.

One piece of good news is none from today are under investigation

 

[Steady]

There is a suspected case in Southern Tas at a quarantine hotel

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Politically it's a big decision too. As I mentioned earlier, the Vic outbreak came from a blindspot, but what's happened in NSW is exactly the scenario that "Test and Trace" was meant to quash quickly and easily. A small scale outbreak at The Crossroads is almost the archetypal example of where "Test and Trace" should, in theory, work. And there's every chance it's failing at its first real test.

Both Gladys and ScoMo have banked pretty heavily on the "Test and Trace" model. Suppression, as a strategy for economic recovery, relies on it working every single time in situations exactly like this. If it fails here then both are likely to have to acknowledge through either actions or words that their baby is ugly and no politician likes to do that. Moreover, it would also drive a major rethink as to what 'living with the virus' actually looks like in Australia - no point having a suppression strategy if you can't demonstrably suppress the virus.

Agree with what you say.

A complicating factor is that the virus was not initially that quick from exposure to infectious...I read elsewhere randomly 5 days, then later 3 days. Now we have 1 at 24 hours essentially.

It also didn’t help that Crossroads had 14 alone on 3/7 compared to the ‘normal’ replication rate of 2.5

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

There is a suspected case in Southern Tas at a quarantine hotel

Quarantine in Tas is for domestic travel, right?

 

[Pushka]

Vic DHHS Daily Report:

My bolding.

You will note that in today's report that there are a lot of new schools with cases.


Media release
20 July 2020

Victoria has recorded 275 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 5942.
The overall total has increased by 246, after 29 cases were reclassified – largely due to duplication.

Within Victoria, 28 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 247 are under investigation.
One new death has been reported since yesterday a woman in her 80s. To date, 39 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.
In Victoria at the current time:

• 1060 cases may indicate community transmission
• 2913 cases are currently active in Victoria
• 147 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 31 in intensive care
• 2933 people have recovered from the virus
• Of the total cases, 5456 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 348 are from regional Victoria
• Total cases include 3082 men and 2830 women
• More than 1,331,000 tests have been processed
• Total number of healthcare workers: 429, active cases: 164 (of which the vast majority were acquired in the community)

Cases currently linked to public housing in North Melbourne, Flemington and Carlton are as follows:

• 287 cases are residents of various public housing towers in North Melbourne and Flemington. Investigations are continuing into how these cases are linked.
• 54 cases are residents of various public housing towers in Carlton. Investigations are continuing into if and/or how these cases are linked.

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:

• 173 cases have been linked to Al-Taqwa College
• 57 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham
• 36 cases have been linked to JBS in Brooklyn
• 4 cases have been linked to Nestle Campbellfield
• 12 cases have been linked to Australian Lamb Company in Colac
• 5 cases have been linked to Australian Pharmaceutical Industries in Dandenong South
• 13 cases have been linked to Goodman Fielder Pampas in West Footscray
• 13 cases have been linked to St Basil’s Homes for the Aged in Fawkner
• 40 cases have been linked to Estia Health in Ardeer
• 28 cases have been linked to Glendale Aged Care facility in Werribee
• 18 cases have been linked to the Royal Melbourne Hospital Royal Park campus
• 20 cases have been linked to LaManna Supermarket in Essendon Fields
• 14 cases have been linked to Embracia Aged Care Moonee Valley in Avondale Heights
• 5 cases have been linked to Japara Central Park Aged Care Home in Windsor

The following schools have closed for cleaning and further investigation following notification of a case.

• Charles La Trobe College
• Roxburgh College
• Overport Primary School
• Drysdale Primary School
• Toorak Primary School
• Princes Hill Secondary College
• Pascoe Vale Girls Secondary College
• Grovedale West Primary School
• Victorian College of the Arts Secondary School
• Trinity College Colac
• Parkville College - Malmsbury Campus
• Leibler Yavneh College

Schools have been remarkably clear of spread even though they've never really closed throughout. A couple were impacted by the Baggage handler issue, and from teachers returning from OS holidays but there havent been spreads within the schools. What is happening in Vic goes against the original science about children and covid spread. .

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The initial message from Vic was it was families, but in the last little while (I feel really only the last few days) they’ve come out and said it’s workplaces (I read an article saying 80%)

In the second wave many infections have started in workplaces, and then that person spread it to their family and friends, and also family gatherings spread it further. ie the Dr who caught from a patient, who then attended a large family gathering with then 8 family units all being infected.

And the security guards most likely caught in the worplace, but also by socialising and carpooling with each other. Some may have also lived with one another. I will leave it to you to decide if the hotel rooms of the quarantine were "workplaces" or "socialising".

When restrictions came in the spread of one family to another family largely got chopped off.

ie

From 11.59pm, Wednesday 8 July 2020 if you live in metropolitan Melbourne or the Shire of Mitchell, Stage 3 Stay at Home restrictions apply.​

​

• you can no longer have visitors to your home
  • you can only gather in public places with one other person or members of your household
  • you cannot make social visits to friends and family.

There are only four reasons to be out. Otherwise, you must stay home.​

Yesterday it was stated that the source of 80% of new cases was via the workplace. Not that surprising as private/family/ friends social gatherings are not meant to happen now.

The exception to this has been at major hospitals that the healthcare workers tend to be infected outside of the workplace. This is probably due to staff wearing PPE at work, and at least some, if not all of, the major hospitals they moved to tighter protocols before the government announced restrictions. ie PPE to be worn at all times and to treat everyone including co-workers as being possibly infected.