Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Steady]

Quarantine in Tas is for domestic travel, right?

Yes,

 

[Gremlin]

What is happening in Vic goes against the original science about children and covid spread. .

I'm not an expert here, but I thought the science was that child to child transmission appeared to be very limited. I'm not sure that what's happened in Vic disputes that. My understanding is that most children who are becoming infected are through transmission in the household. The schools are being closed and cleaned as a precaution, rather than necessarily being the source of transmission themselves.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Schools have been remarkably clear of spread even though they've never really closed throughout. A couple were impacted by the Baggage handler issue, and from teachers returning from OS holidays but there havent been spreads within the schools. What is happening in Vic goes against the original science about children and covid spread. .

Though report does not state that there has been transmission between students though. Just that there has been at least one case linked to it. School cases can be teachers and other adults, as well as students.

My guess is with most students that they will have caught the virus outside of school. Though they may have gained it from a teacher.

Al-Taqwa College is the only one where I have read that there has been student to student transmission identified, and that this is believed to have occurred from the students socialising with one another outside of school hours. This has only been as far as I am aware amongst the older (VCE) students who have adult like bodies (Note some students can be 18).

In Israel they have reported the same thing. ie Older students transmitting the virus to each other from socialising outside of school hours.

The science on lack of spread between students is between younger students. The older students are meant to practice social distancing. Younger children are not required to.

The science on children catching Covid 19 is that they are less likely to catch it, but that they still do catch. It is the transmission from young students to others, and especially other young students, that is not common.

 

[dajop]

I noticed that Geelong now has the same number of active cases as Mitchell shire (13) and Colac Otway 12. I wonder how long before the lockdown area is expanded to include Greater Geelong. And when you start seeing taking hold in places like Colac, do they look at locking down the shire (which includes Apollo Bay and the Otways), or just the effected postcodes?

 

[drron]

Well I think NSW is doing the right things.They know where people who test positive are going like the 2 new Paddinton spots.No cases but a warning that someone who was positive was there.So people are warned and like the Thai Rock are then discovered.
The one thing that concerns me is how mobile those who test positive are.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I noticed that Geelong now has the same number of active cases as Mitchell shire (13) and Colac Otway 12. I wonder how long before the lockdown area is expanded to include Greater Geelong. And when you start seeing taking hold in places like Colac, do they look at locking down the shire (which includes Apollo Bay and the Otways), or just the effected postcodes?

I am sure they will be watching Greater Geelong closely. Though of note its population is 6 times that of Mitchell.

Colac Otway has had 12 cases in 3 days = 2, 3 and now 7 and so that will certainly be drawing close attention as its population is only 21,000, which is half of Mitchell's and 1/12 of Greater Geelongs.

So extra control measures may be looming for Colac Otway depending on who the cases actually are.

 

[get me outta here]

ANYONE from CBR who was at the South Coast during this period should now be in self iso until they are proved to be safe. We need to get a little more assertive.

 

[dajop]

I am sure they will be watching Greater Geelong closely. Though of note its population is 6 times that of Mitchell.

Colac Otway has had 12 cases in 3 days = 2, 3 and now 7 and so that will certainly be drawing close attention as its population is only 21,000 half of Mitchell's and 1/12 of Greater Geelongs.

So extra control measures may be looming for Colac Otway depending on who the cases actually are.

Linked to the meatworks (either staff or families) it would seem. TBH, outside metropolitan areas, the government should really look at leveraging community support for voluntary measures. The sense of community is much stronger, the smaller the population.

Local MP makes urgent call for coronavirus data

Nine coronavirus cases linked to clusters.

www.standard.net.au

 

[drron]

An interesting survey on mask wearing.

.

Interesting that less people in Taiwan always wore a mask when they leave the house than the US.Though the US has a higher percentage that never wear a mask.
Another interesting observation is that Scandinavia seems to be against mask wearing.Even less so than Australians.

 

[jakeseven7]

An interesting survey on mask wearing.

View attachment 222886.

Interesting that less people in Taiwan always wore a mask when they leave the house than the US.Though the US has a higher percentage that never wear a mask.
Another interesting observation is that Scandinavia seems to be against mask wearing.Even less so than Australians.

Have the Nordic countries been advised to wear them? Remember in Australia the advice was not started a few days ago in one state...
Statistics mean little without context.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

An interesting survey on mask wearing.

View attachment 222886.

Interesting that less people in Taiwan always wore a mask when they leave the house than the US.Though the US has a higher percentage that never wear a mask.
Another interesting observation is that Scandinavia seems to be against mask wearing.Even less so than Australians.

Interesting indeed.

I wonder which countries have promoted and/ or mandated mask wearing though and when.

Denmark for example only started advocating face masks in early July. The survey was in late June.

Health authorities had previously deemed the wearing of face masks in public spaces unnecessary but changed their recommendation following advice from the World Health Organization (WHO) in late June.​

​

"Masks can be used to protect others in certain situations, when other tools to prevent the spread are not enough," deputy director of the Danish Health Authority Helene Probst, said in a statement.​

​

Situations in which the wearing of face masks is now recommended include hospital visits for virus testing, transport from a risk area to an airport and when caring for relatives with COVID-19.​

Denmark recommends wearing face masks to curb virus

Denmark announced Thursday that it was now recommending that people wear face masks in certain circumstances due to the novel coronavirus pandemic.

medicalxpress.com

The USA is in the middle and in the USA some states have strongly advocated and even at time mandated mask wearing, whereas other states have often not been in favour. POTUS also being resstant.

In Australia, it is only this week that Vic is mandating them and only recently recommended that many wear them . Again post-survey.

Taiwan is on the low side for an asian country, who in recent years tend to often wear masks, but they have only had 455 cases and 7 deaths and got it under control very early.


Phillipines is very high despite a lowish death rate.

Mexico was having a huge surge and death toll when the survey was done.


The UK is really the one that stands out most to me as they have had a horrific death toll,but yet are so resistant to mask wearing.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The Hotel Quarantine Enquiry was told today that EVERY case in the second wave in Victoria could be traced back to the hotel quarantine guards.

As just reported on CH10 news

 

[Lynda2475]

Well I think NSW is doing the right things.They know where people who test positive are going like the 2 new Paddinton spots.No cases but a warning that someone who was positive was there.So people are warned and like the Thai Rock are then discovered.
The one thing that concerns me is how mobile those who test positive are.

Me too. Its almost like some people are willing the Victorian failings to apply in NSW.

The Vic problem goes back to the Hotel quarantine situation, then close contacts of those ignoring guidelines (family gatherings and going to work with a known diagnosis), and now rampant community spread.

NSW numbers are much better, and the track and trace is being very open. We dont have any unknows in the lastest 20, all were tied to known outbreaks, so doing much better than Vic on that front.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

those ignoring guidelines (family gatherings

Most of the family gathering clusters were not actually in breach of the numbers applicable at the time of the cluster forming.

In terms of family gathering outbreaks guidelines, I am only aware of one cluster that was said to have breached the then limits on family gatherings numbers in Victoria.

There was one large family gathering that I am aware of that was held before the limit was increased and so was in breach of the rules applicable at the time. This infected 8 family units.

A key problem was that when the rules on the numbers allowed at family gatherings was relaxed that it was not known that at that same time that a new second wave was forming. So families were gathering and passing on infections, but where not breaching the guidelines on numbers. Part of the reason that the second wave was not known was as the genomic source was entirely new that there were not links at all with all of the previous contact tracing and known cases. Also note that genomic sequencing which is done on every case in Victoria takes 2 or more weeks to become known. Which was part of the problem together with most likely the hotel security guards hiding their and their families being infected initially.

Not helpful either was people breaching rules on isolating when either known to be positive, or when meant to isolating awaiting a test result. People have done similar throughout Australia.

The perfect storm was completed by the second wave striking in households living in more and more crowded households, who also often were very family centric with much mixing of other related family units. This was quite different than in the first wave.

I think what has concerned some in NSW is that with family gatherings, and gatherings and large numbers allowed in many settings such as pubs that there is the potential for rapid community spread.

 

[Pushka]

The Hotel Quarantine Enquiry was told today that EVERY case in the second wave in Victoria could be traced back to the hotel quarantine guards.

As just reported on CH10 news

Thus it was so so preventable. Unforgivable.

 

[DC3]

Most of the family gathering clusters were not actually in breach of the numbers applicable at the time of the cluster forming....

.... I think what has concerned some in NSW is that with family gatherings, and gatherings and large numbers allowed in many settings such as pubs that there is the potential for rapid community spread.

Not to mention the (lack of) distancing within the groups at these knees-ups.

 

[dajop]

Thus it was so so preventable. Unforgivable.

This is no time for change in leadership, but ultimately once the dust settles, Dan Andrews will be replaced, probably before the next election. He ultimately has to take accountability for the mess, no matter what other good or bad he is doing. Seems to be a common view, even amongst some who are big fans of his work.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Thus it was so so preventable. Unforgivable.

Indeed.

Pure greed being probably the biggest reason, then incompetence, lust, and then ignorance and being willing to turn a blind eye.

 

[DC3]

This is no time for change in leadership, but ultimately once the dust settles, Dan Andrews will be replaced, probably before the next election. He is ultimately has to take accountability for the mess, no matter what other good or bad he is doing.

Be careful what you wish for (if you start wishing).

 

[Princess Fiona]

Excellent study from South Korea on contact tracing done well.
Many lessons for Victoria here. This is nearly 6000 PCR Postive cases and 60K known contacts.
Contract Tracing South Korea CDC


More likely to contract COVID-19 as a household contact.
Interestingly more likely to spread it amongst your household if you are a tween/ teen.
HCW and household contacts of a confirmed case were tested and non-household contacts not tested unless symptomatic but asked to self isolate for 14 days with twice daily checks by health authorities.