Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

There's also the possibility that other states 'got away with it'. Statistically, not every lapse in security is going to let the virus out....

Agree, and that’s the only flaw in the Vic review.

They will be comparing against the ideal, perfection, policy, etc. not other quarantine settings as far as I’m aware based on reporting.

They are on a hiding to nothing.

 

[serfty]

VIC:

Well it is only 3 days of data, but it is at least 3 days in a row now where both the number of new cases, and the positivity rate have declined significantly.

So hopefully both trends will continue.

Yes, hopefully "the Curve" has been flattened.

Sadly, another 300 cases could mean up to three more deaths in the next weeks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes, hopefully "the Curve" has been flattened.

Sadly, another 300 cases can mean up to three more deaths.

Hopefully.

The wider restrictions basically started on the 9th (11.59PM on 8th) and so hopefully these are now stating to have an effect.

Today's results are actually tests from yesterday and upto say 5 day prior to that. So will all have been with a 14 day period of of the 9th.

Hopefully the facemask measure added this week this will have an additional effect as well.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The other aspect that will hopefully have an effect now is that there were clearly many workplaces who were not operating in Covid 19 appropriate ways in early July.

As such they were all just Covid 19 firecrackers just waiting to be lit. And the degree of community spread that was out and about lit those fuses.

Hopefully the number of such workplace firecrackers has been radically reduced. The mandatory wearing of facemasks will assist in this, but workplaces need to not just rely on facemasks working and need all the other measures.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sadly, another 300 cases can mean up to three more deaths.

Even more sad, it could be a lot higher depending on in particular the age profile of who these new cases are.

The publically available age data has not been updated since 15 July. That showed that cases in older people was surging. Recent reports have shown spread in many age care and some large numbers in some of these (50/50 staff to patients).

 

[drron]

Yes, hopefully "the Curve" has been flattened.

Sadly, another 300 cases can mean up to three more deaths.

May mean several more deaths depending on the age profile.Mortality rate if over 80-14.8%.
70-79-8%
60-69-3.6%.

These are world figures and Australia is probably a fair bit better but as of yesterday Victoria had 605 cases above 70 years of age and 49 deaths total.Assuming 32 of those deaths were in over 70s that would mean a mortality rate of 5% for them.It is almost certainly higher.

 

[Pushka]

Never thought I’d be pleased with “only 300”. Grim though for nursing homes.

 

[serfty]

May mean several more deaths depending on the age profile.Mortality rate if over 80-14.8%.
70-79-8%
60-69-3.6%.

These are world figures and Australia is probably a fair bit better but as of yesterday Victoria had 605 cases above 70 years of age and 49 deaths total.Assuming 32 of those deaths were in over 70s that would mean a mortality rate of 5% for them.It is almost certainly higher.

... not to mention the ongoing health complications which are often life changing for many who "recover".

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I hate talking about elimination v suppression because of the ensuing (in my view futile) debate but interestingly it means no community transmission

From ABC Covid live blog reporting on PM press conference post National Cabinet

Scott Morrison says National Cabinet reaffirmed commitment to supression strategy

Despite some calls for Australia to adopt an "elimination" strategy, more akin to New Zealand, the Prime Minister says the National Cabinet today recommitted to supression as its lead strategy.

A couple of other points that were agreed on today was an affirmation of the suppression strategy that we've been working to nationally now for many, many months from the outset.

The goal of that is obviously, and has always been no community transmission. There will always be cases that come because Australia has not completely shut itself off from the world. To do so would be reckless.

my bolding

edit: I personally would have said minimising or reducing community transmission - with most strategies imposing movement and distancing restrictions reducing/minimising community transmission.

 

[jakeseven7]

I hate talking about elimination v suppression because of the ensuing (in my view futile) debate but interestingly it means no community transmission

From ABC Covid live blog reporting on PM press conference post National Cabinet

Scott Morrison says National Cabinet reaffirmed commitment to supression strategy

Despite some calls for Australia to adopt an "elimination" strategy, more akin to New Zealand, the Prime Minister says the National Cabinet today recommitted to supression as its lead strategy.



my bolding

Yes so now we know.... we are technically on an elimination strategy - zero community transmission is as good as elimination but as they plan to re-open borders, there will be cases in controlled quarantine instances.

At least someone has come out and actually said it now.

I personally don't believe its achievable at all - but sure thing ,whatever - at least we know what they are trying to do.

 

[Pushka]

I hate talking about elimination v suppression because of the ensuing (in my view futile) debate but interestingly it means no community transmission

From ABC Covid live blog reporting on PM press conference post National Cabinet

Scott Morrison says National Cabinet reaffirmed commitment to supression strategy

Despite some calls for Australia to adopt an "elimination" strategy, more akin to New Zealand, the Prime Minister says the National Cabinet today recommitted to supression as its lead strategy.



my bolding

It’s an overarching goal but in reality not likely achievable. But it’s the best option now.

 

[drron]

Well Annastacia has called out the big guns for any Victorians that think they can sneek into QLD.

Annastacia Gives The Katter Boys Permission To Shoot The 185 Quarantine Escapees On Sight

"The Adler's sitting on my lap as we speak, and we are moments away from sighting our first target."

www.betootaadvocate.com

 

[kyle]

Death is not a comfortable topic for a lot of people. But are people leaning towards 1) no death is worth it, or 2) the elderly have had a good life in their past 80 or so years, so it's unfortunate that the virus got to them (i.e. they have to sacrifice)? Curious what the general consensus is, and if religion plays a part in your thinking.

 

[blackcat20]

Well in late 2017 she was in Ivanhoe, as it was reported:

Comedian Peter Helliar and wife Bridget have just settled on a $2.55 million Federation home, moving 15km closer to Melbourne from Plenty and landing in Ivanhoe. Ivanhoe is the same suburb where co-panellist Carrie Bickmore and her partner Chris Walker paid $1.59 million for their home in 2013.

Ivanhoe is not a key hotspot area.

Neither is our area. Six days is too long regardless.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Death is not a comfortable topic for a lot of people. But are people leaning towards 1) no death is worth it, or 2) the elderly have had a good life in their past 80 or so years, so it's unfortunate that the virus got to them (i.e. they have to sacrifice)? Curious what the general consensus is, and if religion plays a part in your thinking.

Not really religious. Given I am getting towards being elderly I would hate to think I am disposable.....

Death is one of those inevitable things and certainly I find the death of a young person sadder than someone in their 90s.

Some years ago my mother-in-law had one of the valves in her heart go. She was 88 and any sort of operation to fix it wasn’t possible. We went racing up to Brisbane to say goodbye. I can still remember sitting next to her in hospital and her pulling off her oxygen mask and saying she wasn’t ready to die. That just because you were old people thought you should die and she wasn’t ready to. She was such a lovely lady and such a character and I wish she could have lived another 10 years.

How do you value one life vs another? Within reason I think we should protect as many people as possible, although clearly the economy matters as well.

 

[jase05]

SA has put further restrictions on border crossings

https://amp.adelaidenow.com.au/travel/travel-news/new-restrictions-on-weddings-gatherings-and-borders-for-sa/news-story/160e3ee1914b4a374a905a38cb7e8771

 

[Pushka]

SA has put further restrictions on border crossings

https://amp.adelaidenow.com.au/travel/travel-news/new-restrictions-on-weddings-gatherings-and-borders-for-sa/news-story/160e3ee1914b4a374a905a38cb7e8771

My interpretation is that they are stopping South Aussies returning home if from Victoria; however the issue is that even just being in transit at the airport is considered as visiting Victoria. How is this even legal?.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

My interpretation is that they are stopping South Aussies returning home if from Victoria; however the issue is that even just being in transit at the airport is considered as visiting Victoria. How is this even legal?.

I read a summary elsewhere and not the previous link.

Not sure how it’s legal, but all SA residents are now on notice to return by Monday, unless you qualify for a case-by-case exemption.

It does put closing the borders to a new level - closed to even residents outside the jurisdiction. I am surprised there is no way to return offered Eg quarantine in a safe state.

Edit: i guess there will be a lot of trips via NT/Qld now, or NSW/ACT if you can endure the 14 day isolation/quarantine And somehow pass the NSW/Vic border.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Tas closed to other EasternStates And Territories (Vic, NSW, ACT and Qld)

from ABC Covid live blog

Tasmania is going to open their borders ... but only to NT, SA and WA

From August 7, travellers from South Australia, the Northern Territory and Western Australia will be able to enter the Apple Isle using its Good To Go travel registration system.

There will be mandatory health checks for all passenger arrivals, and anyone with symptoms will have to take a mandatory COVID-19 test at the airport or sea port or entry.

Refusal of a test will mean mandatory hotel quarantine for 14 days or travellers will be sent home on the next flight.

From July 31 there will also be mandatory testing of essential workers entering the state.

Premier Peter Gutwein said: "Tasmania overall appears to be cautiously confident in terms of where we stand at the moment."

He also said he couldn't see the border opening with Victoria "anytime soon".

On Queensland, NSW and the ACT, Mr Gutwein was taking a "position of caution".


....also confirming no AFL

 

[Pushka]

I read a summary elsewhere and not the previous link.

Not sure how it’s legal, but all SA residents are now on notice to return by Monday, unless you qualify for a case-by-case exemption.

It does put closing the borders to a new level - closed to even residents outside the jurisdiction. I am surprised there is no way to return offered Eg quarantine in a safe state.

Edit: i guess there will be a lot of trips via NT/Qld now, or NSW/ACT if you can endure the 14 day isolation/quarantine And somehow pass the NSW/Vic border.

Well there is the thing. We have booked a direct flight from Brisbane to Adelaide in August but if that gets re routed into Melbourne then we cannot get home!