Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[amaroo]

At the end of the day, the majority of the population has to either be exposed to the virus or get immunisation from a needle before the next flu season.... otherwise we're all heading back in-doors next year.

 

[p--and--t]

At the end of the day, the majority of the population has to either be exposed to the virus or get immunisation from a needle before the next flu season.... otherwise we're all heading back in-doors next year.

From what I've read I think you are right.

The two provisos are that the herd immunity has to be well over 60% (preferably closer to 80%) and it hasn't yet been proven that a bout of Covid-19 gives a patient long term immunity (in which case the whole theory goes out the window)

 

[drron]

And then we have idiots like this.

Woman coughs, spits on NSW police officer

A woman has allegedly repeatedly coughed and spat upon a police officer in Sydney's southwest amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.news.com.au

Deserves quarantining in a solitary cell.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From what I've read I think you are right.

The two provisos are that the herd immunity has to be well over 60% (preferably closer to 80%) and it hasn't yet been proven that a bout of Covid-19 gives a patient long term immunity (in which case the whole theory goes out the window)

I think the other way of looking at it is that in a second wave (or if you will second year) of spread that the the more people who are immune ( through having already had it it, or having been vaccinated that the less chance there is for that second wave of virus to spiral rapidly as there are simply less people that can act as links in the chain of passing it on.

Now as you have mentioned one limitation is if CV19 can mutate enough in a year so that the immune are no longer immune. ie As with the flu as new strains emerge from time to time that require new vaccines, and where that original immunity gained from the last flu does not help.

 

[I love to travel]

And then we have idiots like this.

Woman coughs, spits on NSW police officer

A woman has allegedly repeatedly coughed and spat upon a police officer in Sydney's southwest amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.news.com.au

Deserves quarantining in a solitary cell.

I think a mandatory minimum 2 year jail term should be in place for deliberately attempting to transmit any type of virus to a person acting in their offical duty.

 

[RooFlyer]

I would be as happy to see the government individuals fined for the stupidity of thinking that any non-enforced measures would be effective....

What you are talking about is third party physical enforcement - ie beyond the requirements of the ordinary laws which require 'self enforcement' by the citizens (ie don't steal, don't speed), else sanctions applied, such as arrest, and if guilty measures like fines or imprisonment.

So, seriously, what level/type of 'enforcement measures' do you think appropriate? How would you apply them?

This post is consistent with others I have made, when people come on and say 'governments doing it all wrong' or 'should have gone harder, earlier' where they don't post what the correct solution is, and don't seem to have posted weeks or months ago what they are advocating should have been done then.

 

[drron]

On the good news side we in Australia appear to have very low numbers of severe disease.The Dept. of Health publishes a weekly report of the breakdown on cases.it gives how many are assessed for ICU treatment,the numbers admitted to ICU and the numbers ventilated.
Here is the summary for the week ending 23.59 last Sunday.

In Australia:
• There have been 1,765 confirmed cases, including seven deaths, reported in Australia as at
23:59 AEDT 22 March 2020. Of confirmed cases, 43% were reported from NSW, 21% from
Qld, 18% from Vic, 8% from SA, 7% from WA, 2% from ACT, 1% from Tas, and 0.2% from
NT;
• Sixty-five percent of the total number of reported cases so far have been during the current
reporting period;
• Hospitalisation status was recorded for 717 cases, of which 26% (n = 190) were reported to
have been hospitalised due to their COVID-19 infection. Of these hospitalised cases, ICU
(Intensive Care Unit) status was recorded for 87 cases, of which 20% (n = 17) were were admitted
to an ICU, with two cases requiring ventilation; and
• Virus genome sequences currently available from Australian cases indicate introductions
from China, Iran, Europe and the USA, reflecting global diversity of SARS-COV-2 and corroborating
field epidemiology.

To access the full report go here and download the weeks report-

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_weekly_epidemiology_reports_australia_2020.htm

So in terms of ICU admissions and ventilation at present not so bad.

 

[RooFlyer]

Hospitalisation status was recorded for 717 cases, of which 26% (n = 190) were reported to
have been hospitalised due to their COVID-19 infection.

Don't understand this bit @drron . If 190 were hospitalised for the virus, what's the significance of the higher number?

 

[flydoc]

.The Dept. of Health publishes a weekly report of the breakdown on cases.
Here is the summary for the week ending 23.59 last Sunday.

Cautiously reassuring, agreed, but caveats (acknowledging there will always be a lag in timeliness of data) include

- confirmed cases are testing dependent (obviously) and so lag actual but unknown cases

- apparent gaps in data. eg only 50% of confirmed cases had data on symptoms. Were the other 50% truly asymptomatic or was data just not captured? Similarly, poor apparent data capture on hospitalisation and ICU admission status.

- as 2/3 of Australian cases were confirmed in the week ending 22/3/20 and there is a progression from infection to symptoms to (in a minority) decompensation, the hospitalisation and ICU admission rates won’t have peaked yet, although daily numbers of new confirmed cases currently appear to be dropping as noted graphically a few posts above

 

[DC3]

... Deserves quarantining in a solitary cell.

Unfortunately, probably minimal sanctions applied for such individuals.

Edited

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Is this a better result? I'm not sure Im interpreting it correctly.

Yes.

We do not want new cases to grow exponentially.

To decrease is best. But even with some new cases if the growth is limited means that our heath system does not become overwhelmed.

CV19 cases need to be on ventilators longer than for many other illnesses. So the number of people who need a ventilator, combined with the staff who can care for such patients, is one of the main limiting factors.

With two thousand odd ICU beds that crudely put allows for about 20,000 cases (However note that cases is not a really good measure as in Australia our widespread testing probably means this figure is pessimistic as our infection rate is low. In Italy the testing is mainly of people who are seeking hospitalisation). More ICU and ventilators are coming on stream too.

 

[Pushka]

I'm waiting for the secondary impact of all the Ruby Princess people to hit.

 

[drron]

Sure the data isn't totally accurate but you would expect for it to be skewed to the more serious cases as those with more severe symptoms would be more likely to seek medical attention.
The number mentioned as having hospitalisation status noted just means that is the number they know went to a hospital or they asked about going to hospital.As a lot of these tests probably were on asymptomatic patients who had been OS or contacts of them I don't see that as a major failing

 

[Bundy Bear]

One worry I have is the % of people needing some oxygen/ventilation assistance, and that may not happen for a few weeks, you catch the virus, it lodges in your throat and then 20% of patients then need to go to hospital.
Hopefully some sort of treatment is found so that in the likely event of getting sick a drug will be able to help 99.5% of people, and whether something like temperature testing is a good enough indicator of being sick.

 

[Pushka]

One worry I have is the % of people needing some oxygen/ventilation assistance, and that may not happen for a few weeks, you catch the virus, it lodges in your throat and then 20% of patients then need to go to hospital.
Hopefully some sort of treatment is found so that in the likely event of getting sick a drug will be able to help 99.5% of people, and whether something like temperature testing is a good enough indicator of being sick.

It is exactly for that reason that the aim is to flatten the curve so that all who need access to hospital support will have access when needed.

 

[flydoc]

Sure the data isn't totally accurate but you would expect for it to be skewed to the more serious cases as those with more severe symptoms would be more likely to seek medical attention.

Agreed. Just noting the limitations

The number mentioned as having hospitalisation status noted just means that is the number they know went to a hospital or they asked about going to hospital.As a lot of these tests probably were on asymptomatic patients who had been OS or contacts of them I don't see that as a major failing

The term hospitalisation status may not be the best descriptor for those patients then. It isn’t defined in the report but to me a fair interpretation of the term is ‘were they admitted to hospital or not?’. And that we don’t know for around half the cases for the period. Not trying to be pedantic but I think it is more than semantics.

 

[TheRealTMA]

A good article debunking many myths.

Dangerous cures and viral hoaxes: common coronavirus myths busted

With so much misinformation about Covid-19 circulating online, we’ve factchecked some of the more common fallacies

www.theguardian.com

 

[drron]

Only problem with that article is a couple of their claims are false.Now been admitted by 2 Chinese companies that they sent their workers out to procure medical supplies.The second company said they shipped 82 tonnes of medical supplies back to China.
And it isn't Clive Palmer and Donald Trump that first promoted the use of Chloroquine and hydroxy chloroquine but doctors in China then it has been used basically around the world in trials and off label use.
Also not quite true that they are unproven-yes not definite for Covid yet but it has been shown before that they do have antiviral properties.they are also cheap which almost certainly is why the Chinese tried them.
Yes the side effects can also be severe but not common and thousands around the world are using Hydroxychloroquine for genuine medical reasons.And we also have simple tests for some of those effects-annual eye check for the visual problems and an ECG looking for a prolonged QT interval which may predict the heart problems.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Agreed. Just noting the limitations



The term hospitalisation status may not be the best descriptor for those patients then. It isn’t defined in the report but to me a fair interpretation of the term is ‘were they admitted to hospital or not?’. And that we don’t know for around half the cases for the period. Not trying to be pedantic but I think it is more than semantics.

I think a better measure would be critical patients who need either oxygen or ventilators. The second category being the more important in terms of ability to look after. Mortality rates spike if a country cannot service these needs.

 

[Antoallison]

@drron is there any information about the doses that would be required to treat Covid-19 ? Massive doses for critically ill patients with CV and ARDS, then taper dosage.

Also I am presuming ..based on no information, just a wild guess - that it would be a short term regime for weeks or months, rather than years - so no need for annual eye tests etc