Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

18 new cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in NSW as community transmission increases


Another 18 cases of COVID-19 have been diagnosed in New South Wales overnight. Of those, two are returned travellers in hotel quarantine which means the other 16 are locally acquired.

The news comes after four Sydney schools were forced to close for deep cleaning due to a confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19.

Coronavirus NSW: NSW records 18 new COVID cases

Another 18 cases of COVID-19 have been diagnosed in New South Wales overnight.

www.news.com.au

I was waiting for the details before posting lol

2 related to funerals
4 Thai rock Weatherill park
4 the apollo
2 overseas arrivals quarantine
6 under investigation

not a good day

 

[Pushka]

But in reading, some of the symptoms are so mild it starts to do your head in, wondering "is this is?"

I had a sniffle early morning for about 3 days - is it because I went to the office and the aircon plays havoc with my sinuses, is it because we dont use heat at home and its winter, do I get tested and its a waste of resources? It does your head in.

You get tested. Don’t overthink.

 

[Gremlin]

I was waiting for the details before posting lol

2 related to funerals
4 Thai rock Weatherill park
4 the apollo
2 overseas arrivals quarantine
6 under investigation

not a good day

May have been mentioned before, but there's also a further two Queenslanders attached to the Apollo cluster.

 

[Gremlin]

Only 109 of the 723 are linked to aged care.

Do you have a source for this? Just watched the Andrews presser and I don't recall him mentioning numbers, but the suggestion was that a very large proportion were linked to aged care.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Do you have a source for this? Just watched the Andrews presser and I don't recall him mentioning numbers, but the suggestion was that a very large proportion were linked to aged care.

Covidlive is saying it, but they are not always great. At times they do some hot takes.

Edit: im waiting for the DHHS daily report, which will give the total current active Linked to aged care. from that you can work out the Net gain (ie positives minus any positives that became inactive/deaths)

 

[Lynda2475]

6 under investigation

Presumably one of those is the prison case - unless that is being counted under Victrola total, since he was brought to NSW from Vic.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With the growing number of cases in the area, NSW Health is again asking all people who live in, or have visited, the following areas in the past two weeks to get tested if they have any symptoms of COVID-19 at all, even the mildest of symptoms such as a runny nose or scratchy throat:

• Potts Point area
• Carnes Hill shops
• Prestons
• Bonnyrigg
• Wetherill Park
• Mt Pritchard
• Bankstown City Plaza
• Cabramatta
• Perisher

...

There are now 89 cases associated with Thai Rock Wetherill Park, 57 cases associated with the Crossroads Hotel cluster, eight cases associated with Batemans Bay Soldiers Club, and 20 associated with the funerals. There are eleven cases associated with the Potts Point cluster.

....

NSW Health has recently started a research program to test sewage for traces of COVID-19 across the state. This research supports the public health response to the pandemic. Sampling has commenced at a number of metropolitan and regional locations across NSW. Initial samples collected at the Perisher sewage treatment plant on Wednesday 22 July 2020 returned a positive result for the presence of COVID-19. Further sampling and analysis is required to assess the significance of this initial positive result. The positive sewage result can be due to shedding of the virus by someone who may have previously had the illness, with the virus ‘shedding’ through their system for up to four weeks later.



courtesy of nsw health daily media release....not sure whether Potts Point cluster figure includes 2 reported in Qld today.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Presumably one of those is the prison case - unless that is being counted under Victrola total, since he was brought to NSW from Vic.

The answer is no

My reading of the nsw health daily report indicates this case was picked up today, so not included in the reported figures

This morning a new case has been reported in a prisoner in Parklea Correctional Centre. The case has been in isolation. Contact tracing and environmental cleaning is underway; and the inmate has been asymptomatic throughout.

 

[dajop]

[/amateur epidemiology whilst procastinating] I was just wondering in Melbourne, if the weather is influencing behaviour which in turn is influencing the numbers we're seeing in the Victoria numbers. There was some quite cold weather just over a week ago. If you go back 8&9 days from the day the number is reported, take the average max temp over those two days (in NW Melbourne, Essendon airport) , you get some correlation. Could be a coincidence as there are lies, damned lies and statistics, but nevertheless fun looking at these coincidences. If that's the case, we had a week of quite cold weather, so could be in for a bad week of numbers. [\amateur epidemiology whilst procrastinating]

 

[RAM]

Has anyone else noticed how virtually ALL of the Aged Care deaths appear to have been in place NOT in a hospital?

Out of interest, where are you seeing the stats/reports on what proportion of residents who have died in the aged care home vs the hospital?

With St Basils:
Relatives told Neos Kosmos that they were told that their parents were at the facility while they were fighting for their lives in hospitals.

I've been following the stats since February as well as getting some other information.

The numbers for Vic showing ICU, & then the subset of those with some type of artificial respiration assistance have been flat. No large increases nor decreases in the recent fortnight - day by day.

Yet there's been massive fluctuations in daily deaths & admitted to hospital. The probability that the number of new serious admissions who live less than 1 day EXACTLY matching the number from the day before is very low. To match for 12 days straight = they have been mostly dying out of hospital at the nursing homes.

Or the officials figures released each day are false.

Typically (using figures out of US & EU) someone put into ICU +/or ventilation either lives for another 17 days before succumbing, longest 97 days, or fully recovers to the point they're out of ICU. So the VIc situation is either a world first, the deaths are virtually all out of hospital or the numbers are falsified.

Iran, as a country, was the first obvious example of this - stage managed numbers.

 

[RAM]

excuses from the security companies involved.

Given the gravity of the situation , closing up shop or receivership must look attractive atm….
Who was the lucky corporate entity ?

Also has the contract for the (reportedly) most used quarantine hotel in Sydney - The Adina.
Luckily (hopefully?) as the police are also involved in Sydney - the same issues MAY not have arisen.

 

[RAM]

I just cannot understand why the various governments keep making exemptions for these overpaid boofheads and their families and then acting surprised when they act like overpaid boofheads.

Perhaps it is because they are one of the largest lobby groups (= votes) & just happen to be one of the largest donor groups.

Have a look at the AEC donor database. That answers so many seemingly illogical decisions.

Hmm, how about awarding a $4m grant before it was applied for.....

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

According to abc Covid live blog (bolding addition is my analysis Of change from yesterday)

Victoria by the numbers: Press conference recap

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has announced the deadliest day in Australia since the pandemic began.

Here is Victoria by the numbers:

• Victoria has recorded 723 new cases of coronavirus
• There have been a further 13 deaths — people in their 70s, 80s and 90s
• The total number of cases now stands at 9,998, 5,385 are active (+546 Net, yesterday was 4839)
• 913 active cases are in aged care facilities (+109 Net, yesterday was 804 plus possibly 13 deaths [note: made inactive unknown], so possibly 122 new cases)
• 255 active cases are in regional Victoria
• There are 312 people in hospital, 34 are in ICU

 

[jakeseven7]

Norman Swan confirms all my observations over the last few weeks (that led to me wearing a mask before this outbreak!) about the terrible complacency and lack of social distancing here in QLD, and now we have had these 3 runaways cruising round down hitting up bars, shops, restaurants for 8 days straight.... blind Freddy can see what is going to happen next over next few weeks...

------------

A health expert has revealed Queensland will inevitably see an imminent surge of coronavirus cases for one major reason.

Queensland is bracing for a coronavirus outbreak "disaster" as it records three new cases today, adding to the three from yesterday, including one of community transmission.

The state is on high alert and ramping up contact tracing and testing, but a health expert warns the “recipe” for a dire situation has been present for weeks.

Dr Norman Swan, the host of ABC Radio National’s Health Hour, said modelling had demonstrated that Queenslanders were “the worst” in Australia for adhering to social distancing guidelines.

Queensland Police say one of the three women locally infected, is not co-operating and they do not know where she has been.

Chaos builds as Queensland border closure looms

One of the three woman who allegedly lied to authorities to get back into Queensland has spoken out from hotel quarantine.

www.news.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

After watching the PM’s press conference, it just dawned on me that the goal of zero community transmission means zero cases where the source is unknown. That they define community transmission to mean the actual transmission from an unknown source - not necessarily the ultimate source (eg Melbourne quarantine), but how did this person actually get the virus? Can we link it to a known case?

So goal of suppression with zero community transmission means that actual transmission from known cases is ok (because it’s being tracked and traced), but unknown is not achieving the goal.

As such Melbourne is at 50 per day (say for a month) and Sydney is at a handful (even though the PM said today ‘none’) most worryingly the cause of the Potts Point cluster - which many guess is intra-Thai Rock, but no one has come out to confirm it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well at present my daughter feels safer in her workplace despite it having Covid 19 patients, than in many other places.

This is because of her faith in her PPE including face shield, her colleagues (ie them also all wearing their PPE correctly, washing hands etc...), her hospital's protocols and her lack of faith in not all of the general public at all times doing the right thing at say the supermarket etc.

After watching the PM’s press conference, it just dawned on me that the goal of zero community transmission means zero cases where the source is unknown. That they define community transmission to mean the actual transmission from an unknown source - not necessarily the ultimate source (eg Melbourne quarantine), but how did this person actually get the virus? Can we link it to a known case?

Yes that is why it is titled that way:
COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION
Source Local - Unknown Contact


It is the unknown contacts that are the biggest threat as they can keep spreading, and even worse that spread can give birth to whole new transmission chains.

 

[jakeseven7]

After watching the PM’s press conference, it just dawned on me that the goal of zero community transmission means zero cases where the source is unknown. That they define community transmission to mean the actual transmission from an unknown source - not necessarily the ultimate source (eg Melbourne quarantine), but how did this person actually get the virus? Can we link it to a known case?

So goal of suppression with zero community transmission means that actual transmission from known cases is ok (because it’s being tracked and traced), but unknown is not achieving the goal.

As such Melbourne is at 50 per day (say for a month) and Sydney is at a handful (even though the PM said today ‘none’) most worryingly the cause of the Potts Point cluster - which many guess is intra-Thai Rock, but no one has come out to confirm it.

It is my opinion that this is simply never going to happen, not without a full coordinated lock down across Melbourne, Sydney and now probably Brisbane.

There are just too many asymptomatic / very mild cases. It will always be spreading now.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes that is why it is titled that way:
COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION
Source Local - Unknown Contact


It is the unknown contacts that are the biggest threat as they can keep spreading, and even worse that spread can give birth to whole new transmission chains.

I learnt something today lol

i never realised because Vic Press Conferences dont usually talk much about community transmission or emphasize the meaning of community transmission and NSW in the reports don’t specify it as such

eg

By likely source of infection	Count
Overseas	2,025
Interstate acquired	77
Locally acquired – contact of a confirmed case and/or in a known cluster	1,073
Locally acquired – contact not identified	370
Under investigation	2
Total	3,547

So I guess I assumed community transmission meant infection via community (eg local -known source) not that it meant unknown person in community......sigh

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It is my opinion that this is simply never going to happen, not without a full coordinated lock down across Melbourne, Sydney and now probably Brisbane.

There are just too many asymptomatic / very mild cases. It will always be spreading now.

I think it’s possible without a full scale lockdown while community transmission is less than 5 say and less than 4 days behind - assuming 24 hour virus (acquired to infectious)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So just by way of update:

Using the NSW Health daily update of 10 July (the report before Crossroads Hotel was first recorded)

Confirmed cases to date

By likely source of infection	Count
Overseas	1,964​
Interstate acquired	70​
Locally acquired – contact of a confirmed case and/or in a known cluster	883​
Locally acquired – contact not identified	361​
Under investigation	0​
Total	3,278​

Counts reported for a particular day may vary over time with ongoing enhanced surveillance activities.

And comparing with today’s daily update

Confirmed cases to date

By likely source of infection	Count
Overseas	2,025​
Interstate acquired	77​
Locally acquired – contact of a confirmed case and/or in a known cluster	1,073​
Locally acquired – contact not identified	370​
Under investigation	2​
Total	3,547​

Counts reported for a particular day may vary over time with ongoing enhanced surveillance activities.


Today’s total NSW’s community transmission (unknown source + under investigation) number is 11 (370 + 2 under investigation - 361).

There were 269 more positives during that period.