Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[blackcat20]

Interesting how over several situations, (VIC, Tas) after a spike, and then a hard lock-down, the # new cases seem to decline gradually rather than dramatically. In the graph in post 6822, the grey curve decline has virtually the same shape as the upslope, maybe a bit steeper, but not greatly so.

The rise reflects relatively unmanaged transmission, but the fall, in theory, shouldn't be the same shape as its being managed. For instance, if the lockdown was perfect, it would be a very steep falling away of the curve. Degrees of less-than-perfection will lessen the steepness. So I find it interesting (in an academic sort of way) that the present decline in Vic is almost symmetrical with the increase. Here's the equivalent NSW data, showing the same phenomenon without a hard lock-down. There are far fewer cases, so the conclusions are questionable.


View attachment 225870


The NW Tas situation doesn't have enough data points to give a meaningful curve, I think, but may indicate a steeper decline side of the curve (thus arguing against my initial observation). This is raw data, not averages as above.

View attachment 225869

Don't worry, this isn't a criticism or comment on the effectiveness of the Vic lock down (its more a theoretical observation) and I know there are multiple factors that will influence the shape of the curve, including test rates, testing spread, delays in reporting etc etc. But those should be largely similar for the upslope as well as the downslope, or perhaps less of a factor in the downslope time frame, in an emergency situation.

Do our medicos say, @drron , @Princess Fiona have any insight into studies or theories on the shapes of infection curves where hard lockdowns have been applied? Should I stick to my day job?

Even with lockdown it still spreads in households, aged care, health care settings etc. Essential workers are still out and about.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Even with lockdown it still spreads in households, aged care, health care settings etc. Essential workers are still out and about.

Even in lockdown, there is exercise, essential shopping.....I guess lockdown is more trying to get to a point of you know who you are interacting with.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I’m leaning towards moa999 on this, a trend matters less I think on the downward side. The 14 (incubation period) and 28 days (ie active cases) are probably more relevant to Unknown new cases and cases of concern Respectively.

Yes unknown local transmission is one to watch. But I believe trends are important (whether increasing or decreasing) to monitor.

Vic



NSW

 

[Mattg]

Very pleased to hear about the numbers in NSW today (and over the past couple of days).

I'm currently in SA and have been trying to decide whether to return home next week. With the way things are going, I think it may be "safe" enough to do so.

 

[VPS]

Very pleased to hear about the numbers in NSW today (and over the past couple of days).

I'm currently in SA and have been trying to decide whether to return home next week. With the way things are going, I think it may be "safe" enough to do so.

Do you want to get back to the warmer climes of Canberra?

 

[Lynda2475]

I'm currently in SA and have been trying to decide whether to return home next week. With the way things are going, I think it may be "safe" enough to do so.

I dont think it was ever unsafe to transit at SYD (dont recall reading any cases of airport transmission). Are there not direct flights from ADL to CBR?

 

[RooFlyer]

(not a. Medico)
I'd think it's a combination of variable incubation periods (up to 14 days)
And a lot of intra-household transmission (even in a weld the doors shut lockdown).

So even in the strictest lockdown you might have a 28 day tail. Let people out for shopping, exercise etc and it increases.

Yes, thanks, I forgot to mention the lag for the incubation period - post now edited. Both Tas and Vic curves well beyond that lag now. The exceptions for shopping etc and intra-household stuff is what I meant by not-perfect lock down and they are definitely a factor in 'flattening the (down) curve' . Also re @blackcat20 and @HappyFlyerFamily But those types of factor are also present in the pre-lock down up-slope (more so), so I don't think that explains it (not that you meant it did in-toto). Its more the comparative shape of the pre-lock down up slope and the post lock down down slope that I'm looking at and why the down slope shouldn't be steeper than the upslope.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes unknown local transmission is one to watch. But I believe trends are important (whether increasing or decreasing) to monitor.

Vic
View attachment 225876


NSW


View attachment 225877

When you look at both the graphs of active cases and unknown local transmission in Victoria one gets a good feel that contact tracing is now in a much better state relative to new cases occurring than it has been for some time.

That Vic was not able to keep up with contact tracing with the growing surge of new cases, and that it was about to have gotten even worse, would have been an important reason why Vic went in Stage 4 restrictions.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Maybe not this National Cabinet, but hopefully in the one of the next two, they (and AHPPC) do a proper review of all COVID measures, eg quarantine (perhaps mandatory testing every 7 days of all workers at international borders - quarantine, airport, ports), mandatory testing of high risk settings (eg staff at aged care, hospitals, police, defence reserve), and perhaps buy more tests. Perhaps follow NSW contact tracing system. When to make masks mandatory? What is the baseline for a lockdown? There’s quite a few things to learn from this second wave.

 

[Lynda2475]

On ABC last week (cant remember if it was 7:30, 4 Corners or The Drum) they were stressing that Victoria's contract tracing systems were very paper based and not nearly as modernised as those used in other states.

 

[dajop]

Another observation from a benevolent dictatorship's version of hotel quarantine (i.e. Singapore), not a security guard in sight! We went for COVID testing yesterday on another floor of the hotel, and we were free to go to the service lift by ourselves, and on return to our room, once we got out of the lift, we were left to ourselves to return to our rooms. No escorts!

It always puzzled me why security guards are needed on each floor (elevating risk of community spread, as the more security needed, the more likely escape is ), as there usually only very limited egress points in most hotels I've stayed in - two or three emergency exit points + lifts. Lock out the lifts and guard the emergency exit doors, and you have the whole place under guard. I guess, the unruly banging on doors etc, untrustworthiness, and lack of teeth in penalties for breach is part of the reason.

 

[jakeseven7]

Oh ok.

I recalled that for a long while you were of the view repeatedly that NSW needed a lockdown......it looks like NSW can see the light at the end of the tunnel without the need for a second lockdown. Fingers crossed.

Edit: in terms of the National goal, it’s probably more accurate to say zero community transmission is the goal/ideal. That means when a community transmission case appears, action is needed.

Yup - personally I think the zero community transmission goal/ideal is impossible regardless of what method you employ.

My previous comments around NSW locking down was more around if they really wanted to try and go for national elimination (I also think impossible too) they would need NSW and probably SE QLD to lock down too, which clearly will not happen.

Soon the population will start learning to live with the numbers and want their freedoms back, tide is already turning.

 

[jase05]

Not sure it’s a wise move from the QLD government to agitate the Feds

Coronavirus: Deputy Premier hits back at Peter Dutton for personally bringing COVID-19 into Queensland

 

[drron]

Thanks @HappyFlyerFamily for pointing me back to the NSW stats.I haven't looked at them for a while but they always seem to be doing the right thing.

The thing that leapt out at me was this-
Returned travellers in hotel quarantine to date

Since 29 March 2020	Count
Symptomatic travellers tested	4,585​
Found positive	121​

Since 30 June 2020	Count
Asymptomatic travellers screened at a day 2	15,091​
Found positive	83​

Since 15 May 2020	Count
Asymptomatic travellers screened at a day 10	28,470​
Found positive	119​

So even though as a proportion of positives to test done in asymptomatic returned travellers was lower than symptomatic people they actually found more positive cases in asymptomatic carriers.So those states who were not doing any testing on their returned travellers were taking a mighty big risk.Who knows if the Victorian cases just walked out though the evidence is pretty strong that the security guards had something to do with the outbreak.

So I praised SA before as they did test everyone in quarantine and it looks like NSW did the same.

As well the NSW site is pretty explicit in what people should do.

To help stop the spread of COVID-19:
If you are unwell, stay in, get tested and isolate.

• Wash your hands regularly. Take hand sanitiser with you when you go out.
• Keep your distance. Leave 1.5 metres between yourself and others.
• Wear a mask in situations where you cannot physically distance.

I

 

[Mattg]

Do you want to get back to the warmer climes of Canberra?

Not particularly, but I’ve been away for almost a month now and done everything I wanted to do. And finances aren't unlimited. The only reason not to go back to CBR at this point would be if the situation there was unstable/case numbers were increasing like was happening in Victoria in July. That doesn’t seem to be the case now, although once I go back I realise that I won’t be able to travel to any other states except NSW.

I dont think it was ever unsafe to transit at SYD (dont recall reading any cases of airport transmission). Are there not direct flights from ADL to CBR?

The SA government would disagree with you

I think there are still a few direct ADL-CBR flights each week, but I'm not actually planning to fly. Instead, I'm going to catch a bus to Broken Hill and take the train home from there.

 

[p--and--t]

Another observation from a benevolent dictatorship's version of hotel quarantine (i.e. Singapore), not a security guard in sight! We went for COVID testing yesterday on another floor of the hotel, and we were free to go to the service lift by ourselves, and on return to our room, once we got out of the lift, we were left to ourselves to return to our rooms. No escorts!

It always puzzled me why security guards are needed on each floor (elevating risk of community spread, as the more security needed, the more likely escape is ), as there usually only very limited egress points in most hotels I've stayed in - two or three emergency exit points + lifts. Lock out the lifts and guard the emergency exit doors, and you have the whole place under guard. I guess, the unruly banging on doors etc, untrustworthiness, and lack of teeth in penalties for breach is part of the reason.

...and perhaps people meeting on social media and going from room to room without guards on the ground floor knowing about it? GPS error rate is often 30-60m, coarse enough to be in another room on the same floor on a floor above or below. Hotel rooms are usually furnished the same and painted the same. A face time call would not reveal where you were with accuracy.

 

[dajop]

...and perhaps people meeting on social media and going from room to room without guards on the ground floor knowing about it? GPS error rate is often 30-60m, course enough to be in another room on the same floor on a floor above or below. Hotel rooms are usually furnished the same and painted the same. A face time call would not reveal where you were with accuracy.

The other thing I noticed lots of CCTV cameras So remote monitoring I am sure.

 

[Lynda2475]

SMH.com.au reports, what I alluded to earlier:

Murphy praises NSW response to COVID-19
By Dana McCauley

Federal health department secretary Brendan Murphy has praised the NSW government for its COVID-19 response, saying the state's health authorities had "effectively stamped out an outbreak of a similar size to that in Victoria".

"This virus is incredibly infectious and unfortunately the Victorian public health response was unable to control the outbreaks in the way that NSW has done," Professor Murphy told the COVID-19 Senate Committee hearing on Friday.

He said while Victoria's contact tracers had been "overwhelmed" by the rapid spread of the state's second wave, the NSW health department had a more advanced system for tracing and isolating new cases, with public health teams "in every local health district."

NSW also had a better public health system than other states, including Victoria, he said, with a "decentralised structure", better IT systems and training and "really strong, critical leadership from public health physicians."

Professor Murphy said the NSW response should serve as "the model for the rest of the country" as premiers and chief ministers grappled with the pandemic's ongoing threat.

He said while the Victorian government had done "everything they could", the virus had "got the better of them."

"The one thing that we can do to protect elderly Australians is to have not another outbreak of this magnitude," he told the hearing.

"The primary driver of the whole national response has been to stop widespread community transmission, because everywhere in the world it has disastrous consequences.

"Every state and territory needs to go back and check to see they have all of those systems and processes to make sure they can do that."

 

[jakeseven7]

SW and W Sydney testing rates and undetected community transmission clearly keeping them up at night.

Won't pass Anna's test either to go and see family in QLD either at this rate

----

NSW Health declares six new hot spots; calls on more to get tested, as unknown cases continue to stump contact tracers

“With a growing number of cases, if you live in or have visited the following new local government areas (LGAs) or suburbs in the past two weeks, get tested even if you have mild COVID-19 symptoms such as a runny nose or scratchy throat,” NSW Health warned.

All of Newcastle, the Woollahra area – including Point Piper and Double Bay, The Hills LGA in northwest Sydney and the Hornsby LGA have been declared hot spots. The suburbs of Guildford and Merrylands in Sydney’s southwest were also added to the list of twenty one already published

The testing call out comes after authorities issued warnings about likely undetected community transmission circulating in the community, with western and south-western Sydney called out as the areas of concern.

"We are seeing continual community transmission, particularly in south-western Sydney, but also popping up in western Sydney from time to time.

"It's critical that we improve testing rates in these areas'

Live NSW COVID-19 updates: One new case of coronavirus

<p>NSW Health has put another six areas under "increased surveillance", calling on thousands of people to get tested for coronavirus.</p>

www.news.com.au

 

[p--and--t]

The other thing I noticed lots of CCTV cameras So remote monitoring I am sure.

Yes, some hotels everywhere. The variability across hotels is wide. Some of them multiple cameras per floor and in lifts, others none visible except near the reception cash/currency desk, of course there could also be concealed ones.

If they were installed, perhaps not monitored very well in Perth and Melbourne where "inmates" have absconded. In Cairns the occupants got around that by climbing from balcony to balcony to hold in room parties.