Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

Growing very weary of this constant panic about Covid traces. If it is in the community, and we pretty much assume it is, then we seem to be dealing with it. People arent needing to seek medical advice for symptoms and so not resulting in actual positive cases being reported, hospital admissions high but for non covid issues and death rates in nursing homes way down. Death rates in Nursing homes also seem confounded by someone with Covid dying, but death is always going to happen to people in their eighties through to 100+

On ABC this am one epidemiologist suggested the virus may already be mutating into weaker less severe strains. Let’s hope so!

But could help explain why it is sitting under the surface bubbling away everywhere without raising its head much, given the estimates of asymptomatic (no symptoms or symptoms so mild and brief you don’t even connect the dots) are ranging up to 40-50% of cases.

 

[jakeseven7]

. Death rates in Nursing homes also seem confounded by someone with Covid dying, but death is always going to happen to people in their eighties through to 100+

And even more confounding is that Aussie aged care home deaths are down significantly year on year, even with COVID included...

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld contact tracing added new locations from 29 August at West Ipswich, Booval, Springwood, Doolandella, Russell Island, and the Russell Island - Redland Bay passenger ferry.

Phase 1 watch for symptoms

Contact tracing (exposure sites) — coronavirus (COVID-19)

Information about the current COVID-19 public contact tracing alerts in Queensland.

www.qld.gov.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

On ABC this am one epidemiologist suggested the virus may already be mutating into weaker less severe strains. Let’s hope so!

But could help explain why it is sitting under the surface bubbling away everywhere without raising its head much, given the estimates of asymptomatic (no symptoms or symptoms so mild and brief you don’t even connect the dots) are ranging up to 40-50% of cases.

If I remember correctly, only 6 asymptomatic were found from the blankettesting done in the Melb postcode hotspots. So I feel it’s less than 40%.....

 

[Pushka]

And even more confounding is that Aussie aged care home deaths are down significantly year on year, even with COVID included...

Flu I'd suggest. It hasnt hit.

 

[jakeseven7]

If I remember correctly, only 6 asymptomatic were found from the blankettesting done in the Melb postcode hotspots. So I feel it’s less than 40%.....

I think some of those ‘hot spots’ were not hot spots at all. One post code they locked down had 6 cases period....

Anyway I leave the big numbers to the scientists to inform us.

Post automatically merged: Sep 6, 2020

Flu I'd suggest. It hasnt hit.

Yes they said it’s because they achieved a good vaccination rate as one of the contributors to the decline in aged care deaths... which begs they question why that just couldn’t be done before of course....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

New cases per day in Victoria based on a 7 day average (data to 6 Sept) are still declining though the rate of decline has flattened over the last week.

(Note graph has a typo as it says that it is updated on the 7th!)



Cases per day over the last 14 days.

 

[I love to travel]

No Queensland figures yet. Lots of coverage re Russell Island, so wonder whether that is the reason for the delay.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

63 new cases with 5 deaths in Victoria but possibility of Stage 4 remaining until mid October with concerns of a third wave

https://twitter.com/x/status/1302332832438599680

I note that they are using 14 averages.

Based purely on the current 7 average rate of decline, if that continued then from today's number of cases with the current restrictions it would take another 18 days to be approaching zero. However it is likely that the case rate/day from today would probably slow (flatten off) even with the current restrictions and so take longer again.

The earlier they ease restrictions the longer it will take. as the article demonstrates.

So my guess would be no substantive easing from 14 days from today, but that they may from next Sunday have some easings that would have minimal or no effect on the transmission rate. ie Longer exercise times. Outdoor activities such as golf resuming. Allowing single person households to nominate another single person household to interact with. Some minimal work changes, such as major construction going from 25 to 50%.

They will have had 5 weeks of data to under the current restrictions to base decisions on where easings are more likely to have minimal effect, and conversely where easings would be more likely to have more negative effects.

 

[Pushka]

Sewerage traces seems to be the current buzz phrase in the media of the last couple of days. Victoria too has found covid traces in sewerage. Go figure. The thouand or so current covid positive people use the toilet. Surely this wont be used as one of the lock down decision making tools for easing restrictions? Good grief. Give me strength.

 

[Lynda2475]

10 in NSW today:
* 4 international arrivals in hotel quarantine
* 4 linked to known cases
* 2 under investigation

 

[TheRealTMA]

Flu I'd suggest. It hasnt hit.

I remember a doctor from some years ago who used to say “pneumonia is the old man’s friend” .

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld two new cases linked to current outbreak

 

[RooFlyer]

Surely this wont be used as one of the lock down decision making tools for easing restrictions? Good grief. Give me strength.

Well, the PDR Tasmania CMO, when questioned about how he got the 'people are frightened' bit that he said he factored into his advice to extend travel restrictions until at least 1 December replied 'social media and talk-back radio'. I am not kidding. When then asked how he quantified it, he said there were some small polls but yes, they should define the issue more. No mention at all of the fear people have of losing their business, not seeing children/family etc etc. He's seeing and counting what he wants to.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

melb Step 3 - 6-7 weeks away probably

Here's what will happen from October 26 under Step Three
This is subject to public health advice at the time, the Premier says.

If the daily average of cases over the previous 14 days is less than five new cases at this time, then the curfew will no longer apply.

• Leaving home there will be restrictions on reasons or distances travelled
• Public gatherings will increase to 10 people outdoors
• You will be able to have up to five visitors at home, there will be a household bubbble
• More information will be shared on schools for those in years three to 10
• Retail and hairdressing will reopen
• Hospitality will recommence, predominantly outdoor seated service
• There will be a staged return of outdoor noncontact adult sport

....courtesy of ABC Covid live blog

Edit: Step 1 and 2 are below.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

One more week of current stage 4, then some minor improvements

Metro Melbourne's stage four restrictions extended for two weeks
"We cannot open at this time," the Victorian Premier says.

But there are some changes to the two-week extension of stage four until September 28.

• From Sunday, the curfew will be eased and it will be expanded to 9:00pm
• Exercise will be increased to two hours per day
• Singles will be able to partner up with someone else and visit each other. The five kilometre rule will not apply, but the curfew will
• Playgrounds will reopen
• Public outdoor gatherings of two people will be allowed or a household for up to two hours, not the one hour of exercise

"So it is exercise and or spending time outside, whether it be visiting the park and so on and so forth," the Premier says.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Step 2 for Melbourne if they get below average of 50 per day for 14 days...

Step Two from September 28

From September 28, these measures will be taken if the health advice says it can.

This means average new cases over the previous 14 days would've been between 30-50.

• Public gatherings will be increased to five people from two household
• Gradual returns to school for Prep-Year 2. VCE and VCAL and specialist schools will be open for term four
• Childcare will re-open
• Outdoor pools will open
• outdoor training for two people with a personal trainer will be allowed
• outdoor religious gatherings with one faith leader will be allowed

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Despite ABC‘s heading this seems like Step 4.

Here is what stage 4 could look like

Mr Andrews has told Victorians today he wants a Christmas as normal as possible.

If the health advice allows it, on November 23:

• You can have gatherings of 50 people outdoors
• You can have up to 20 people at your home
• All retail will be open
• Real estate will open with safety measures
• In hospitality, indoor groups with a limit of 20 people with seated service, a 50 can be served more broadly
• Weddings and funerals will be back to normal

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Regional Vic will be Step 2, but Geelong corridor is under close watch and may need to be placed into Melbourne restrictions.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

When will Melburnians be able to travel to regional Victoria?
Victoria's Chief Health Officer says he expects Melburnians will be able to travel to regional Victoria when we can get to that average of five cases per day for a 14-day period and there are no cases of unknown acquisition.

He says: "I think that is a natural point.

"There is no risk of importing cases to regional Victoria anymore than it is from regional Victoria."