Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Austman]

So the number of reported curfew breaches feels about 100 per day.

Whatever is reported by the police needs a multiplying factor to be actuality. From what I know in my area (inner city Melbourne), that factor is not a small one.

Flaunting of the rules is rife in my area.

The compulsory masks and the curfew rules are at least difficult to flaunt.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I hate all the rules too. All the rules are a form of infringement on personal liberties. There's not too much to like about them. Except for the end goal.

Yes there is all of that and importantly your last sentence. So pick one's end goal, as that then helps to frame what the restrictions need to be.

So given where Vic was at we could get more restrictive, or we could have just gone more "Land of the free-ish" and have accepted the much greater mortality rate which based on relative populations would about 100 Victorians a day as a normal state till if and when a vaccine arrives.

Personally I am ok with being in State of the less free for a while.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Vic Trigger Graphs now updated:
View attachment 227329

View attachment 227330

The more important trigger/review flag is zero community transmission in Regional Vic, but we get a lack of information about that. It seems Wednesday might be somewhere between 12-14 days of no community transmission

 

[p--and--t]

Yes there is all of that and importantly your last sentence. So pick one's end goal, as that then helps to frame what the restrictions need to be.

So given where Vic was at we could get more restrictive, or we could have just gone more "Land of the free-ish" and have accepted the much greater mortality rate which based on relative populations would about 100 Victorians a day as a normal state till if and when a vaccine arrives.

Personally I am ok with being in State of the less free for a while.

An alternate viewpoint is if these restrictions cut the time to reach acceptable number by a factor of 2-3 months then short term pain for long term gain and the sooner people can get jobs, restart their businesses, stop the ecomony bleeding, and reduce long term effects on metal health.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

An alternate viewpoint is if these restrictions cut the time to reach acceptable number by a factor of 2-3 months then short term pain for long term gain and the sooner people can get jobs, restart their businesses, stop the ecomony bleeding, and reduce long term effects on metal health.

Well that to me is what the " State of the less free for a while" is aiming to achieve.

It is also what the various indicators are all showing is being achieved. Cases, mortalities, hospitalisations, are all trending down.

In July the trends in Vic were not at all good.

 

[Flying mermaid]

If other States can manage it, I'm sure Vic can also. The lack of eye candy when out and about is killing me mentally and I'm serious.

Mr FM, Ms FM and I all wear masks when going out (well not on walks where we don’t see anyone, but pretty much everywhere else). We live in Canberra and we haven’t had a case in months but it’s a very simple precaution.

 

[RooFlyer]

This is sort of OT, sorry, but just to complete the loop:

Meanwhile, has anyone an alternative report on this one involving Vic's finest? 'Drags her out of a car by the legs' can't be right.

Natalie Bonett claims she had shown police her licence and a permit while she was stopped at the Wallan checkpoint, about 45 kilometres north of Melbourne, on Saturday when a police officer told her it was illegal to have her mobile phone charging on a windshield mount.

The footage shows the officer asking Ms Bonett to get out of the car, but she refuses.

“No, I don’t feel safe, you’re attempting to get into my vehicle,” she tells the male officer.

He then reaches in to undo her seatbelt and Ms Bonett begins screaming as the officer then drags her out by the legs while she struggles.
...
“They called for backup and had 4 police officers grab me by the legs and pull me out of my car and arrested me. While trying to cuff me they had their knees in my back and couldn’t breathe.”

It seems she didn't produce a licence, refused to identify herself and was arrested on that basis (also having phone mounted on windscreen). But I still dunno about being dragged from the car by her legs. I live a sheltered life.

 

[33kft]

I can only but imagine what is going on the the suburbs that have the high case loads and the utter frustration of the gov and police.

Probably nursing homes and schools rather than "bad people" as has been the tendency of people to assume all along. The number one LGA in Melbourne for coughulative (not active) infections is Wyndham. It's an LGA with a population of 250K that stretches over 550 square kilometers. Lets take a look at what has transpired in Wyndham:

• BaptCare Wyndham Lodge Community in Werribee: 243 cases
• Glendale aged care home in Werribee : 80 cases
• Al-Taqwa College in Truganina: 210 cases

So 40% of the cases are directly attributable to a school and 2 aged care facilities. I stopped here because I find it way too hard to obtain this information, it seems coughulative cases by cause for an LGA is not a detail that's very easily obtainable, but the evidence I found when googling the above suggests there's more of a similar vein for this area so I am pretty happy to put the cause down to the elderly, healthcare workers and schoolkids rather than rebellious ratbags.

 

[Flying mermaid]

This is sort of OT, sorry, but just to complete the loop:



It seems she didn't produce a licence, refused to identify herself and was arrested on that basis (also having phone mounted on windscreen). But I still dunno about being dragged from the car by her legs. I live a sheltered life.

She was asked politely numerous times and she refused to cooperate. So what are police supposed to do? Let her drive on and post her video showing her beating the police? What was the piece of paper in her hand - another script stating she was a sovereign citizen?

It was an ugly scene but I am just not sure how else you handle someone not obeying direct orders...

 

[p--and--t]

Probably nursing homes and schools rather than "bad people" as has been the tendency of people to assume all along. The number one LGA in Melbourne for coughulative (not active) infections is Wyndham. It's an LGA with a population of 250K that stretches over 550 square kilometers. Lets take a look at what has transpired in Wyndham:

• BaptCare Wyndham Lodge Community in Werribee: 243 cases
• Glendale aged care home in Werribee : 80 cases
• Al-Taqwa College in Truganina: 210 cases

So 40% of the cases are directly attributable to a school and 2 aged care facilities. I stopped here because I find it way too hard to obtain this information, it seems coughulative cases by cause for an LGA is not a detail that's very easily obtainable, but the evidence I found when googling the above suggests there's more of a similar vein for this area so I am pretty happy to put the cause down to the elderly, healthcare workers and schoolkids rather than rebellious ratbags.

Thanks for that.

Anecdotally from various statements from Sutton & way back in the rising tide the cluster around the school; it wasnt the school or transmission at the school but the community around the school; parents of the students were all friends and mixed socially in largish groups outside the heath guidence.

I have no access to data, I don't live there, I haven't seen any recent analysis, so I cannot contribute in a constructive of factual way to your analysis (which was informative).

 

[33kft]

Anecdotally from various statements from Sutton & way back in the rising tide the cluster around the school; it wasnt the school or transmission at the school but the community around the school; parents of the students were all friends and mixed socially in largish groups outside the heath guidence.

It would be easier to believe this if all of the other causes that have been put forward actually turned out to have been the case, like:

• Security Guards having sex with returnees (no evidence this ever happened)
• BLM protesters
• Ethnic/Religious groups doing the wrong thing

And so on and so forth. What happens is that:

• Cityfolk blame suburbia
• Regional blame metro
• Other states blame victorians

Yet people all over the world are catching this because it's infectious and despite what we might think, just because we're locked down doesn't mean supermarket staff, medical staff, transport staff, utilities workers, construction workers and so on and so forth are also.

The nursing homes are a great example. The virus got into them, a few residents caught it, staff caught it, they went home and their partners and children caught it, and so on and so forth. Why do the numbers continue so stubbornly despite Stage 4 lockdown? Because people can't necessarily isolate themselves entirely from all other people regardless of the current stage of restrictions, and what one person catches one day can easily spread to others in a household/facility/office building/residential high rise building the next day.

 

[p--and--t]

It would be easier to believe this if all of the other causes that have been put forward actually turned out to have been the case, like:

• Security Guards having sex with returnees (no evidence this ever happened)
• BLM protesters
• Ethnic/Religious groups doing the wrong thing

And so on and so forth. What happens is that:

• Cityfolk blame suburbia
• Regional blame metro
• Other states blame victorians

Yet people all over the world are catching this because it's infectious and despite what we might think, just because we're locked down doesn't mean supermarket staff, medical staff, transport staff, utilities workers, construction workers and so on and so forth are also.

The nursing homes are a great example. The virus got into them, a few residents caught it, staff caught it, they went home and their partners and children caught it, and so on and so forth. Why do the numbers continue so stubbornly despite Stage 4 lockdown? Because people can't necessarily isolate themselves entirely from all other people regardless of the current stage of restrictions, and what one person catches one day can easily spread to others in a household/facility/office building/residential high rise building the next day.

Every statement spot on. There are the other reasons as well that can't be ignored, just as yours can't be.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

She was asked politely numerous times and she refused to cooperate. So what are police supposed to do? Let her drive on and post her video showing her beating the police? What was the piece of paper in her hand - another script stating she was a sovereign citizen?

It was an ugly scene but I am just not sure how else you handle someone not obeying direct orders...

Agree on both counts. But if she had acted reasonably there would have not been any drama.


People complained that the police did not arrest the BLM protesters (though they did charge the the organisers) and that the Vic Gov should have been tougher.

Now at a time when cases are higher and there is more unkown community spread, where they have clarified the rules etc they now seemingly want the police to not act.

Ever since Eve Black it should be crystal clear what people need to do if pulled over by the police. When Eve tried it a second time the police quite rightly broke here window.


So if I am say a drug dealer with a boot full I crack, can I just refuse to state my name and comply with lawful police directions so that I can just drive on by?

 

[TheRealTMA]

She was asked politely numerous times and she refused to cooperate. So what are police supposed to do? Let her drive on and post her video showing her beating the police? What was the piece of paper in her hand - another script stating she was a sovereign citizen?

It was an ugly scene but I am just not sure how else you handle someone not obeying direct orders...

Looks like she deliberately set it up for the covidiot video.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Our Police have a very difficult job.

Is there a special reason why supposedly if you are female that you have a special set of rights, that evidently are meant to apply as long as they are filming at the time, to not comply with police directions?

And evidently if you get abusive that you even more entitled to not obey reasonable directions from police?

Is the behaviour of Natalie, Bunnings Karen and Eve Black really deemed by some to be appropriate and acceptable?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well those that are interested in data may find these three inter-active graphics of all clusters (10 or more cases) in Victoria from May on interesting.

If so, I recommend clicking through so that you can click on each cluster. Click Clusters and outbreaks | Covid-19 data in Australia | covid19data.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The reports keep coming...

Parliament House in Melbourne shut after worker infected

Parliament House in Melbourne has been shut down for emergency deep cleaning after a security guard tested positive to COVID-19.

www.news.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With other jurisdictions reporting nil, the national new cases is 50 today.

With 33% reduction week on week as the current trend, hoping to get some 30s and 20s in the new few days.

 

[p--and--t]

Well that to me is what the " State of the less free for a while" is aiming to achieve.

It is also what the various indicators are all showing is being achieved. Cases, mortalities, hospitalisations, are all trending down.

In July the trends in Vic were not at all good.

I had a thought and a bit of a giggle this afternoon when I was on my walk about some of the commentary about the draconian curfew forcing major supermarkets to close in Victoria during the middle of a second wave of a pandemic at 8pm at night in lieu of their permitted 24/7 trading.

Tomorrow night and beyond I will be able to go and do my shopping at Coles and Woollies until 9pm under gov regulations.

Lets have a google around the country where the major stores are permitted to open after six pm every day of the week 363 days of the year anytime pandemic or not.

Which state allows you to go to KMart (in normal times) and buy sheets and towels or anything else at 3am? Or maybe go to Officeworks and stock up at 11:30 at night?

 

[dajop]

Probably nursing homes and schools rather than "bad people" as has been the tendency of people to assume all along. The number one LGA in Melbourne for coughulative (not active) infections is Wyndham. It's an LGA with a population of 250K that stretches over 550 square kilometers. Lets take a look at what has transpired in Wyndham:

• BaptCare Wyndham Lodge Community in Werribee: 243 cases
• Glendale aged care home in Werribee : 80 cases
• Al-Taqwa College in Truganina: 210 cases

So 40% of the cases are directly attributable to a school and 2 aged care facilities.

The only observation is that not all of the cases linked to Al-Taqwa would have been listed as in the Wyndham LGA. It was mentioned that some of the cases in the towers were linked to the college, as several tower families had students at the college. I guess, most, but perhaps not all cases linked to the homes would have in the same LGA.