Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

If other States can manage it, I'm sure Vic can also. The lack of eye candy when out and about is killing me mentally and I'm serious.

One might also observe that NSW is going sideways with cases. Perhaps better mask wearing there would see them drop to zero cases?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Was talking to some less emotional Melburnians and they don’t see the big deal with the curfew. Maybe it’s even a little storm in a teacup distraction for everyone to focus on. If anything it maybe could have been a bit later. But after all, in “normal times” what are people doing out in evenings/nights ?

1) eating out in restaurants ....not allowed
2( going to pubs/bars etc .... not allowed
3( going shopping for food .... shops shut (maybe would have stayed open a little later)
4) picking up takeaway (yes 9pm would have been more reasonable)
5) visiting friends, going to parties .... not allowed
6) going for a drive .... not allowed
7). Going to or from work ... allowed
8) going to or from hospital ... allowed

The main reason that could be allowed that isn’t because of the curfew is exercise. Well gyms and pools are closed. So it’s all those people who go jogging in the park after dark that are the ones most affected by the curfew.

It probably should be extended to at least 10pm though if it’s not gone by daylight savings time.

So if it’s already not allowed then Vic doesn’t need another rule of the curfew to enforce the current restrictions.

Supermarkets only closed because of the curfew. I’m guessing most restaurants felt that the curfew plus the 5km rule killed takeaway as an option, especially as delivery modes charge something like 33% of the menu prices and eat into earnings.

To me, it seems the curfew is a evidence that not enough Victorians followed the restrictions to that point. It was imposed to help police with enforcement (police deny asking for it) and/or pure signalling to get better compliance to the other restrictions by Victorians.

If you say there was compliance, then it means the Vic Government put in the wrong restrictions at Stage 3 to get the intended control over Covid numbers. I do wonder what was the difference between Vic Stage 3 and the national first lockdown to produce different outcomes.

I’m not quite on board with the civil liberties point of RooFlyer hence my hesitation of liking or agreeing. Civil liberties (rights?.?) previously allowed positives to exercise outside the home while in isolation just because they lived in a unit.

Is that a roundabout way of saying something was wrong in Victoria???

 

[p--and--t]

Yes we will agree to disagree but it’s healthy debate. No other operator sees anywhere near the freight volume of the APG and peak is over by Feb so everything was running normal. AP had everything pretty much under control until the MEL restrictions kicked in.

Planning for surge capacity?

[Disclosure: used to work there many years ago]

Basic functions. Accept mail/parcels. Find where it needs to go. Route it. Deliver it. No different to airport luggage except geographics.

Decades ago they had the solutions to sort envelopes quickly and efficiently and economically and right up there on top of their game.

They haven't evolved to handle parcels properly. Just look at the airport automated luggage receiving terminals.

If they are the largest operator they should have the best processes ahead of the minnows.

Parcels shouldnt be lying on the floor with people wandering around manually sorting them.

Anyway this is not the right thread and I've had my say. Over to the topic at hand.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Is that a roundabout way of saying something was wrong in Victoria???

Yes it was called a high level of unknown community spread, and with new cases having overwhelmed what contact tracing could have coped with.



EDIT. I just added:
The vast majority of Victorians were following the rules. However too easy for some to use exercise or shopping for cover stories to breaking the rules.

The 5km rule and the curfew made it much easier for police to enforce the rules, and to also remove the shades of grey that some were applying.

ie Early in the pandemic we had one "stargazer" on this forum interpreting the exercise rule to mean that he could drive long distances to any beach.

Not long before the 5km rule a family from a hostpot suburb were found 70km away supposedly exercising.

 

[dajop]

Yes it was called a high level of unknown community spread, and with new cases having overwhelmed what contact tracing could have coped with.

And the demographic element.

There’s probably various reasons why south of the Yarra (except Dandenong/Casey) that Wave 2 cases are but 1/4 or less of NW Melbourne. Even in the NW look at 3038 with just 4 active cases now - this is an older established area that was developed around 30 years ago vs the adjacent 3037 - much of it developed in the last decade - still with 59 active cases.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes it was called a high level of unknown community spread, and with new cases having overwhelmed what contact tracing could have coped with.

Fair point, which has been confirmed subsequently by the hotspot discussion paper/analysis.

So Melbourne gets a curfew (on top of more Stage 4 restrictions that should have worked) because it’s contact tracing could not cope with cases.

It doesn’t feel like the right answer but it is what it is.

 

[jase05]

Planning for surge capacity?

[Disclosure: used to work there many years ago]

Basic functions. Accept mail/parcels. Find where it needs to go. Route it. Deliver it. No different to airport luggage except geographics.

Decades ago they had the solutions to sort envelopes quickly and efficiently and economically and right up there on top of their game.

They haven't evolved to handle parcels properly. Just look at the airport automated luggage receiving terminals.

Parcels shouldnt be lying on the floor with people wandering around manually sorting them.

Anyway this is not the right thread and I've had my say. Over to the topic at hand.

Yes and I’m in a low to middle management role with one arm of them currently so know full well what is going on behind the scenes. I’ve constantly said there have been mistakes and things aren’t perfect. I’ve seen the millions on millions spent on parcel sorting facilities and equipment but unfortunately there is still plenty more that needs to be spent and is currently being rolled out. Unfortunately not every PDC has the technology currently due to new/temporary centres being set up for the overflow. Anyway yes I’ll refrain from posting on this subject on this thread

 

[p--and--t]

Fair point, which has been confirmed subsequently by the hotspot discussion paper/analysis.

So Melbourne gets a curfew (on top of more Stage 4 restrictions that should have worked) because it’s contact tracing could not cope with cases.

It doesn’t feel like the right answer but it is what it is.

IMHO The curfew was necessary to deal with a percentage of the population who felt the other measures didn't apply to them because they know better.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Fair point, which has been confirmed subsequently by the hotspot discussion paper/analysis.

So Melbourne gets a curfew (on top of more Stage 4 restrictions that should have worked) because it’s contact tracing could not cope with cases.

It doesn’t feel like the right answer but it is what it is.

That plus the rule breakers. Too easy for some to try and sneak out to visit a friend, or family member, and if pulled up to just say out exercising etc. 5km rule and curfew helps to greatly reduce that. Plus makes enforcement much easier.

CV19 relies on population mixing to spread. Reduce the mixing and you reduce the spread.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

IMHO The curfew was necessary to deal with a percentage of the population who felt the other measures didn't apply to them because they know better.

Calling Eve Black (who was also driving to regional Victoria locations as well as around Melbourne) and Bunnings Karen

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

IMHO The curfew was necessary to deal with a percentage of the population who felt the other measures didn't apply to them because they know better.

That plus the rule breakers. Too easy for some to try and sneak out to visit a friend, or family member, and if pulled up to just say out exercising etc. 5km rule and curfew helps to greatly reduce that. Plus makes enforcement much easier.

CV19 relies on population mixing to spread. Reduce the mixing and you reduce the spread.

So the number of reported curfew breaches feels about 100 per day.

It doesn’t feel right to have a curfew on 5million people for the sake of say 4200 breaches over 6 weeks that may or may not have been detected without the curfew.

 

[dajop]

So the number of reported curfew breaches feels about 100 per day.

It doesn’t feel right to have a curfew on 5million people for the sake of say 4200 breaches over 6 weeks that may or may not have been detected without the curfew.

A good point. But then, again what is the cause and effect? How many "breaches" (i.e. people moving about, mixing and spreading the disease), would there have been without the curfew? A bit like the argument "Oh, look what's the big fuss about, there's only been 700 COVID deaths, so why did we need any restrictions?".

 

[Pushka]

Perhaps it's all this time cooped up that increases people's sensitivities but quite honestly blaming Melbournians for allowing this to happen

I don't think Melbournians are in any way to blame. However I can understand many doing what is considered 'the wrong thing' once the virus escaped from Quarantine (and therein lies another story) because the messaging wasn't clear to them, not in a language they could relate to, and even to those who understood English very well, there was confusion and very much mixed messaging. Victoria didn't stand a chance when known Covid positive people were still legally allowed to walk amongst the public for exercise. They could touch a handrail, use a public toilet etc and there is the spread.

If there was community spread in SA right now I would be wearing a mask. The curfew - it is understandable why it was done. I'm surprised it wasnt a Police suggestion. The issue is that the announcement was made under "health advisement" when clearly it was Andrews idea so why didn't he just say that. Hmmm. I can think of a few reasons. Nonetheless I agree with the concept. Just the message the message sent irks me.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So the number of reported curfew breaches feels about 100 per day.

It doesn’t feel right to have a curfew on 5million people for the sake of say 4200 breaches over 6 weeks that may or may not have been detected without the curfew.

Point being with everything closed that for 4.95 million people it makes no difference as we cannot do anything outside the home then anyway (well except may for a night time jog).

It is only the 0.05 million that wanted to do things that they should not be doing who were/are inconvenienced.

Also note that for anyone booked, there would be others not caught.

The curfew and 5km rule are simple and easy rules to follow.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A good point. But then, again what is the cause and effect? How many "breaches" (i.e. people moving about, mixing and spreading the disease), would there have been without the curfew? A bit like the argument "Oh, look what's the big fuss about, there's only been 700 COVID deaths, so why did we need any restrictions?".

Haha, well wasn’t that a similar point you had previously? Just ‘lock up’ or isolate the positive cases rather than restrict movement, quarantine all travellerS, State borders, etc of everyone. The net effect might be people reluctant to get tested.

I can’t put my finger on the reporting of non-curfew breaches but perhaps double the 100 outside curfew hours might be an indication.

 

[p--and--t]

So the number of reported curfew breaches feels about 100 per day.

It doesn’t feel right to have a curfew on 5million people for the sake of say 4200 breaches over 6 weeks that may or may not have been detected without the curfew.

It doesn't feel right to have any restrictions because the actions of a few

As a teen I used to love putting my foot on the pedal down to the floor on an empty country road and feeling the buzz. However I understand the need for road rules.

It not fair that any over us are undergoing this because of a virus people brought here from overseas.

It's not fair there wasn't adequate supervision of contractors

It's not fair private enterprise sought to rip the gov off and not honour their contracts.

It's not fair I'm locked up because 50 or so teenagers think it is ok to have a drunken party at midnight at McDonalds carpark in the middle of a pandemic.

It's not fair hundreds of people decided to ignore the health advise and hold huge dinner parties for religious festivals.

It's not fair my taxes are so high for police to catch criminals, if only there weren't any criminals

It's not fair that councils have to have all these inspectors going around because some restaurants think it's ok to have unsanitary conditions where they serve food.

It's unfair that tax payers have to fund the fair work commission because employers.rip off their employees.

It's not fair people make mistakes. It's not fair people break the law. It's not fair other people suffer.

Lots of things in life dont seem fair but we are where we are and we need a reliable & effective way out taking into account all the Richard Craniums.

We are where we are. We didnt want to be here. We don't want to be here. But here we are.

Rant over.

 

[Austman]

From inner city Melbourne, I saw rule breaches over the past months all the time.

People even admitted them to me. Some boasted even. Police were not very helpful. They would/could not investigate incidents even caught on CCTV. They apparently had to be on-the-spot incidents with the police present. That's at least what they told me.

Those who think that 99% of Melburnians were abiding by the rules are really living in a fantasy bubble. It simply wasn't the case where I live and still isn't the case even today.

The compulsory wearing of face masks and the curfew at least made it harder for the some of the rules to be so easily flaunted.

The curfew didn't make things much more difficult for most. Things were largely closed anyway. It probably should have been brought in months ago.

I hate all the rules too. All the rules are a form of infringement on personal liberties. There's not too much to like about them. Except for the end goal.

 

[p--and--t]

And the people I associate with are mostly critical of DA and the measures.

I think people tend to make friends or associates with similar thinking, values and background.

As with any subject, there will be a wide diversity of views and humans as almost universally more comfortable being in the company of those with similar views.

You may note from my post the concensus amongst my "tribe" was not happiness about the restrictions but acceptance of the need and getting on with life without wasting energy or emotions on railing against the unchangeable.

 

[p--and--t]

From inner city Melbourne, I saw rule breaches over the past months all the time.

People even admitted them to me. Some boasted even. Police were not very helpful. They would/could not investigate incidents even caught on CCTV. They apparently had to be on-the-spot incidents with the police present.

Those who think that 99% of Melburnians were abiding by the rules are really living in a fantasy bubble. It simply wasn't the case where I live and still isn't the case even today.

The compulsory wearing of face masks and the curfew at least made it harder for the some of the rules to be so easily flaunted.

The curfew didn't make things much more difficult for most. Things were largely closed anyway. It probably should have been brought in months ago.

I hate all the rules too. All the rules are a form of infringement on personal liberties. There's not too much to like about them.

We must be somewhere in the same vicinity. I hear them most nights wandering the streets in groups, often drunk, going into each others buildings, zero social distancing, breaking almost every health direction in play. I can only but imagine what is going on the the suburbs that have the high case loads and the utter frustration of the gov and police.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Trigger Graphs now updated: