Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Flying mermaid]

Correct, but my view is that when people say retail are closed that would mean physical stores; online is of course always going to be available as is mail / courier delivery. Dr FM can feel free to cook me some treats and courier them over

She has been too busy (or was) feeding her flatmate. Or at least she was in between yelling at him when he nearly burnt the apartment down and when he took up smoking.

Got the impression a lot of stores had closed in Melbourne, but maybe the people living there can say.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Collectively, what do we hope to achieve here, apart from a bit of friendly banter and venting?

Are we expecting any Premier/PM to be taking note of the brilliant minds on AFF?

Alleviates the boredom - it’s sort of like the chit chat thread but with a particular theme. I find it interesting.

 

[p--and--t]

I don’t know that all that many people do disagree. The issue that seems to be coming up though, is the government’s inability to say who exactly, is responsible for anything.

And the curfew has become a huge overblown issue it seems almost exclusively due particularly to a couple of reporters from the Murdoch press and ch7 news who daily hammer away to find anything at all they can built a semi legitimate piece that contains one of the key click bait words like chaos disaster scandal et al.

Most people I have come across in GMMA who are generally lawabiding and socially responsible and not DYKWIA or a conspiracy theorist have accepted it and got on with their lives understanding there is a direct relationship between spread of the virus and human movement/interaction.

Then there are the others....

 

[p--and--t]

She has been too busy (or was) feeding her flatmate. Or at least she was in between yelling at him when he nearly burnt the apartment down and when he took up smoking.

Got the impression a lot of stores had closed in Melbourne, but maybe the people living there can say.

Bigw across the road is open every day on slightly reduced hours and you can order anything you like online 24/7 and they text you when ready to come in and pick up. Typically order by 12 pickup after 4.

Some stores felt it was too difficult, some were shut by the gov because they didn't have a covid plan or safe social distancing or too much movement, some collected job keeper and went home, some innovated and carried on. A very wide spectrum.

 

[serfty]

And the curfew has become a huge overblown issue it seems almost exclusively due particularly to a couple of reporters from the Murdoch press and ch7 news who daily hammer away to find anything at all they can built a semi legitimate piece that contains one of the key click bait words like chaos disaster scandal et al.

The issue is consistency and did Dan misinform Victoria.

Dan stated the curfew was introduced based on advice from experts - the implication from the general conversation encapsulating that was the advice came from medical experts.

Since then no medical expert has stated they gave such advice. There is more on this upthread. Furthermore the Police have indicated they gave no such advice either.

 

[p--and--t]

The issue is consistency and did Dan misinform Victoria.

Dan stated the curfew was introduced based on advice from experts - the implication from the general conversation encapsulating that was the advice came from medical experts.

Since then no medical expert has stated they gave such advice. There is more on this upthread. Furthermore the Police have indicated they gave no such advice either.

I'm satisfied on playing back the relevant clip multiple times that he clearly stated he had been advised by various experts if he was to shorten the time to getting the numbers to an acceptable level he had to limit movement "so I decided".

YMMV

[every communication between humans is flawed in some way as the speaker assumes what the listener will understand and the listener makes assumptions about what the speaker was intending to convey]

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

O/T - I don't understand the media frenzy about Dan Andrews deciding on a curfew rather than the CHO. It supports the medical advice to limit movement. (I'm not commenting on whether the curfew is a good idea or not, just who has the power to impose it).

Still off topic, in the specific instance of the curfew, in chatting to friends on the phone, whatsapp, text, I have not so far come across anyone in my circle who didn't think it was a great idea.

I don’t know that all that many people do disagree. The issue that seems to be coming up though, is the government’s inability to say who exactly, is responsible for anything.

Well over at Australian Reports of the Virus Spread I was against the curfew when it was first announced. I really couldn’t be bother digging up my reasoning.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

7 September 2020 St Edmund's College Ipswich morning afternoon
8 September 2020 Hungry Jack's Town Square Redbank Plains Shopping Centre

Added to the Qld contact tracing webpage over the past two days.

I wonder if there have been any transmissions found at any of these points, apart from the Korean restaurant in Sunnybank.

 

[jase05]

AFAIK there was a negotiation with all sizeable industry sectors (by workforce) where that was practicable. The gov introduced broad brush measures (shutdown) on smaller operators like gardeners dog groomers, et al.

Covid-safe practices were stipulated for larger workforces and assessed and that resulted in a drop to sometimes around 25% of original staffing levels if adequate social distancing couldn't be semi-guaranteed. That's one of the reasons I think Australia Post is struggling - due to their way of doing things, they lost quite a few staff when they were at their busiest and haven't moved quickly enough to adapt. Other courier firms are very busy but didn't grind to a halt. Amazon can still deliver in less than 48hrs.

AP is struggling because of demand mainly. One week just before Christmas last year was the busiest week in history and yet this year every week for the last 4 months has been bigger. The backlog is mainly due to the SD requirements in Victoria affecting sorting facilities. This means that a large volume of freight is being shifted to Adelaide and Sydney to be sorted. A stack more staff have put on for deliveries but it’s still past bursting point. AP also have a very large partnership with Amazon and AP deliver large volumes of their freight daily

 

[p--and--t]

AP is struggling because of demand mainly. One week just before Christmas last year was the busiest week in history and yet this year every week for the last 4 months has been bigger. The backlog is mainly due to the SD requirements in Victoria affecting sorting facilities. This means that a large volume of freight is being shifted to Adelaide and Sydney to be sorted. A stack more staff have put on for deliveries but it’s still past bursting point. AP also have a very large partnership with Amazon and AP deliver large volumes of their freight daily

Yep. I understand they are under the pump but so are many others but the others are managing with some slight delays.

Airports handle the sorting of boxes, suitcases and all sorts in the blink of an eyelid at airports and organise to load in a plane in under 20 minutes.

In vision in the media recently AP has parcels lying around on the floor in warehouses and on makeshift trolleys and shelves and manually sorting them.

Inconsistencies abound:
a small envelope "parcel" (nonexpress) 15km across Melbourne 4 weeks (Australia Post)
a small envelope "parcel" (nonexpress) from China to Melbourne CBD 5 days (Courier unknown)
a large box of fragile light fittings (nonexpress) Melb Metro to Country Vic 3 days (Pack&Send)
a large box of fragile light fittings (nonexpress) Country Vic to Melb Metro same day (Courier unknown)
a smallish parcel 4kg (nonexpress) to Melb metro 22hours (Amazon)
a smallish parcel 3kg (nonexpress) to Melb Metro 36hours (Amazon)
a large awkward electric panel heater 3mx1m from Geelong to Melbourne Metro 18 hours (Geelong Couriers)
a shoe box with shoes (nonexpress) from Perth to Melb Metro 3 days (Courier Unknown)

I haven't seen online (which admittedly doesn't mean much) any complaints about extensive delays for Officeworks, Bunnings, Harvey Norman or other companies organising courier deliveries.

I have been made promises from every company I have contacted so far of next day delivery of an oven for which I have been getting quotes.

There are hundreds of electric bike riders in the city all day everyday (and night when no curfew) delivering bespoke orders (parcels) within 15 minutes.

I made a comment a few months back, there are nearly 6,000 taxis and double that in taxi drivers effectively sitting on their backsides since March. Someone has finally realised, I saw a couple of taxis with back seats filled with parcels in the last couple of weeks pulling up at city addresses dropping off parcels of various sizes. No idea who they were working for.

I might be unreasonable, but I expected more out of AP to get their act together given it has been 6 months since the rush started.

 

[jase05]

Yep. I understand they are under the pump but so are many others but the others are managing with some slight delays.

Airports handle the sorting of boxes, suitcases and all sorts in the blink of an eyelid at airports and organise to load in a plane in under 20 minutes.

In vision in the media recently AP has parcels lying around on the floor in warehouses and on makeshift trolleys and shelves and manually sorting them.

Inconsistencies abound:
a small envelope "parcel" (nonexpress) 15km across Melbourne 4 weeks (Australia Post)
a small envelope "parcel" (nonexpress) from China to Melbourne CBD 5 days (Courier unknown)
a large box of fragile light fittings (nonexpress) Melb Metro to Country Vic 3 days (Pack&Send)
a large box of fragile light fittings (nonexpress) Country Vic to Melb Metro same day (Courier unknown)
a smallish parcel 4kg (nonexpress) to Melb metro 22hours (Amazon)
a smallish parcel 3kg (nonexpress) to Melb Metro 36hours (Amazon)
a large awkward electric panel heater 3mx1m from Geelong to Melbourne Metro 18 hours (Geelong Couriers)
a shoe box with shoes (nonexpress) from Perth to Melb Metro 3 days (Courier Unknown)

I haven't seen online (which admittedly doesn't mean much) any complaints about extensive delays for Officeworks, Bunnings, Harvey Norman or other companies organising courier deliveries.

I have been made promises from every company I have contacted so far of next day delivery of an oven for which I have been getting quotes.

There are hundreds of electric bike riders in the city all day everyday (and night when no curfew) delivering bespoke orders (parcels) within 15 minutes.

I made a comment a few months back, there are nearly 6,000 taxis and double that in taxi drivers effectively sitting on their backsides since March. Someone has finally realised, I saw a couple of taxis with back seats filled with parcels in the last couple of weeks pulling up at city addresses dropping off parcels of various sizes. No idea who they were working for.

I might be unreasonable, but I expected more out of AP to get their act together given it has been 6 months since the rush started.

I agree it’s not ideal but none of the other companies have anywhere near the volume of the AP network. They definitely should have tried to fix it earlier before they got too far behind and they are trying to sort it out and have put on a stack of extra staff. AP does a heap of Officeworks, Harvey Norman, Bunnings deliveries aswell.

 

[Hvr]

I might be unreasonable, but I expected more out of AP to get their act together given it has been 6 months since the rush started.

Totally agree. The CEO is paid millions and has failed dismally, yet she and her senior executive team are still getting massive bonuses. If she was a fair dinkum CEO she would have understood the opportunities for ramping up the business quickly and getting a stronghold in the parcel home delivery business.

Even without COVID-19 the parcel side of the business was growing but amazingly there don't seem to have been plans to capture that market. And every year there is the Christmas rush. Surely those plans could have been implemented to step up and fulfil delivery timelines.

Especially with thousands of people looking for work with checkable backgrounds etc.

 

[jase05]

Totally agree. The CEO is paid millions and has failed dismally, yet she and her senior executive team are still getting massive bonuses. If she was a fair dinkum CEO she would have understood the opportunities for ramping up the business quickly and getting a stronghold in the parcel home delivery business.

Even without COVID-19 the parcel side of the business was growing but amazingly there don't seem to have been plans to capture that market. And every year there is the Christmas rush. Surely those plans could have been implemented to step up and fulfil delivery timelines.

Especially with thousands of people looking for work with checkable backgrounds etc.

Absolutely there have been mistakes but I don’t
think anyone could have predicted the increase in freight volume would be as big as it has been across the whole APG. In Christmas peak times AP has had the luxury of integrating excess parcels into other arms of the group but they are currently experiencing record volumes that are far in excess of any Previous Christmas periods. Most of the current issues are due to delays in processing the parcels not delivery delays and in fact delivery times are still very good once the freight arrives in the various PDC’s. Hopefully the execs are still looking at ways to improve and they have some huge infrastructure projects in the works but most of these projects are several years in the making such as the new ADL facility which is finally going ahead

 

[lovetravellingoz]

While it was made known some time back that almost all the Second Wave cases in Victoria came via Hotel Quarantine at two hotels (so hence all second wave aged care cases are ultimately via hotel quarantine as the original source),

ie Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Tracking coronavirus in Victoria​

• More recent data indicates that for the 1,589 cases sequenced from cases with symptom onset from 14 July to 14 August, all but 12 were linked to Rydges. The other 12 cases are linked to the Stamford Hotel cluster. It is likely that 99% of current cases of Covid-19 in Victoria have arisen from the Rydges or Stamford Plaza hotels.

this article in The Age today talks about a link between a security guard and an aged careworker at one aged care facility:

First link made between hotel quarantine outbreak and aged care
A security guard who shared a house with an aged care worker has been identified as the first formal link made between Victoria’s calamitous hotel quarantine program and the spread of coronavirus to an aged care home.

First link made between hotel quarantine outbreak and aged care


In the article the link via the guard, seems to have been to Embracia's Reservoir home, where the virus had been swiftly contained.

A report tendered last week to the inquiry investigating how the virus moved into the community found a case went from the Rydges hotel in Carlton to Embracia Aged Care.

“Preliminary information from [the] Microbiological Diagnostic Unit linking the case associated with Embracia Aged Care genomically to cases from Rydges on Swanston Street outbreak,” said the timeline in a Department of Health and Human Services report.

Embracia managing director Sarah McKenzie said: “Our staff member lived with a female security guard who had worked across these quarantine hotels.”

Embracia operates two Melbourne homes. Its Avondale Heights home has had a major outbreak involving five deaths and 32 residents and staff, as well as another 14 people connected to the centre. The group’s other home is in Reservoir, where there have been just two cases.

Ms McKenzie said the staff member linked to the Rydges guard had worked in Embracia's Reservoir home, where the virus had been swiftly contained. They did not work in the Avondale Heights centre, known as Embracia Moonee Valley, where five residents have died.





It does not discuss how the security guard became infected. A previous article by The Age stated:

The Age newspaper has reported that "patient zero" in Victoria's second wave of coronavirus was a night duty manager at Melbourne's Rydges on Swanston hotel, which was being used as a quarantine hotel for returned overseas travellers.

The genomic sequencing released identified:

See those four orange dots in mid to late May? That is the virus breaking out of quarantine. That is a family of four who returned from overseas on May 9 and subsequently tested positive for the virus.




So if The Age's various articles are correct:

Family of 4 in quarantine > Night Duty Manager > Security Guard > Aged Care Worker > Embracia's Reservoir home (which was reported to have been contained).

How transmission occurred between the first 3 above is not specified, and there may or may not have been other people in between.

And I am not sure there is any reporting of how the other security guards became infected and any transmission chains from them.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Updated graphs ( as of Last updated: 12 September, 4:30pm) for the Melbourne and Regional Victoria Triggers based on the corrected DHHS Data.

Note that the new cases released each invariably end up being reduced later as corrections are made for things like false positives, duplication etc. Corrections are announced each day, but these corrections can be from more than just the a last 24 hours.

The Roadmap Triggers are set on the corrected data, and not the first released new cases for each day. The two graphs below now show the 14 day average for most of the second wave including the peak average cases for each trigger.

 

[kyle]

Still off topic, in the specific instance of the curfew, in chatting to friends on the phone, whatsapp, text, I have not so far come across anyone in my circle who didn't think it was a great idea. Some are impacted, not many, but support the measure all the way and don't care who made it, if it gets us to lower figures months quicker than otherwise.

And the people I associate with are mostly critical of DA and the measures.

I think people tend to make friends or associates with similar thinking, values and background.

 

[SydneySwan]

Vic improvement continues - 41 / 7 today.

 

[jb747]

It would be nice to hear if Gladys has any plans re opening the border, at least to local residents.....

 

[jakeseven7]

It would be nice to hear if Gladys has any plans re opening the border, at least to local residents.....

Can’t be far off now

 

[RooFlyer]

Its become obvious, due to questioning by the evil Murdoch press, that the Vic curfew was imposed by Premier Andrews unilaterally to help police control & keep tabs on people, NOT to help control the spread of disease for its own sake - else the CHO would have recommended it, wouldn't he? So much for 'following the science'. Not that the police asked for the curfew either - they only found out about it a few hours before it was to commence.

For those in Victoria who think its a good idea/don't mind and arbitrary curfew, good luck to them. Your state, your issue, your liberty being curbed (although in terms of my family, I might say 'our state ...'). When the Premier calls for mandatory GPS phone tracking of everyone 'to help police' will that be OK too? It would definitely help in stopping breaches of social distance / gathering rules and that's what we want, isn't it?

Meanwhile, has anyone an alternative report on this one involving Vic's finest? 'Drags her out of a car by the legs' can't be right.

Natalie Bonett claims she had shown police her licence and a permit while she was stopped at the Wallan checkpoint, about 45 kilometres north of Melbourne, on Saturday when a police officer told her it was illegal to have her mobile phone charging on a windshield mount.

The footage shows the officer asking Ms Bonett to get out of the car, but she refuses.

“No, I don’t feel safe, you’re attempting to get into my vehicle,” she tells the male officer.

He then reaches in to undo her seatbelt and Ms Bonett begins screaming as the officer then drags her out by the legs while she struggles.
...
“They called for backup and had 4 police officers grab me by the legs and pull me out of my car and arrested me. While trying to cuff me they had their knees in my back and couldn’t breathe.”