Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Regional Trigger Graph including today's data is now out.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld reports 3 linked to known case/cluster
NSW reports 6, including 5 linked to known case cluster + 1 in quarantine

So with Vic being 37, we are looking at below 50 nationally for 3rd time since 1 July

 

[Lynda2475]

Six new cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed in the 24 hours to 8:00pm last night, bringing the total number of cases in NSW to 3,968.

Of the six new cases:
* One is a returned overseas traveller in hotel quarantine
* Five are locally acquired and linked to a known case or cluster

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Regional Victoria note

The Echuca mystery case was a false positive, so Regional Victoria still on track to take 2 steps by the middle of next week (I guess that means Wednesday 16 September). So hopefully Regional Victoria takes:
Step 2 on Monday 14/9 (locked in at technically 1159pm Sunday 13/9)
Step 3 on Wednesday/Thursday.

 

[RooFlyer]

I would love Tassie but I don’t think First Secretary Gutwein wants us

Fixed that for you.

And now, the latest from Premier Andrews:

Victorian Premier and his chief health officer have backed away from modelling used to justify the state’s roadmap out of coronavirus lockdown after The Australian published criticism from numerous Melbourne University health experts who say the targets for easing restrictions are excessive.

It comes despite the Premier last Sunday saying “you can’t argue with science” while citing the “supercomputer” modelling to justify extending lockdown measures potentially into November unless daily cases dropped below five.

CHO Professor Brett Sutton told reporters today that the modelling used was from several sources.

“That modelling was really significant and a core input into decision-making for policy decisions, but it was by no means the only one,’’ he said.
...
Melbourne University’s dean and assistant Vice Chancellor of Health coughij Kapur and colleague James McCaw, a professor of mathematical biology, in The Weekend Australian questioned the Victorian government’s suppression target of less than five new cases over a two-week period by October 26. While it wasn’t impossible, it would be a target not yet achieved in any comparable country, they said.

“No major city in Europe has attempted to suppress transmission to this extent — not London, nor Paris or Berlin. Nor have New York or LA or Chicago; and certainly not Sao Paulo, Mexico City or Mumbai,” they said.

“Even the Asian cities lauded for their public health systems and compliant populations — Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo or Seoul — have not managed to achieve this strict threshold. Ironically the only major city that has achieved this is Wuhan. A city of 11 million that endured thousands of cases but then imposed perhaps the harshest of lockdowns, barring practically all movement and work.”

The professors said the models had not justified the political decisions the government had made.

 

[p--and--t]

“No major city in Europe has attempted to suppress transmission to this extent — not London, nor Paris or Berlin. Nor have New York or LA or Chicago; and certainly not Sao Paulo, Mexico City or Mumbai,” they said.

I don't see a comparable city on that list? Not by size, population or starting point.

have not managed to achieve this strict threshold. Ironically the only major city that has achieved this is Wuhan. A city of 11 million that endured thousands of cases but then imposed perhaps the harshest of lockdowns, barring practically all movement and work.”

So they are saying lockdowns work to achieve low levels and if Vic meets the low level, then Vic has proved that can also meet that level without the draconian measures used in Wuhan?

 

[Flashback]

Currently Victoria is in pretty much lockdown. The figures should be going down in that situation regardless of what is done on the medical scene. So the elephant in the room is what happens when things start to ease back to normal, which they must do. Which gets back to my question of a couple of days ago, will anything actually change as far as preventive processes and tracing goes? Have the lessons really been learnt?

People are still allowed to go to work aren't they, not just essential workers? Not really able to understand that one. Unless I've misunderstood the exclusion?

 

[Flying mermaid]

People are still allowed to go to work aren't they, not just essential workers? Not really able to understand that one. Unless I've misunderstood the exclusion?

Not under the current lockdown - they were under stage 3 but stage 4 is much stricter. They even stopped things like gardeners and landscapers and you can’t get a tradie unless it’s for emergency repairs. So a very tough lockdown and it’s been quite devastating. However on the positive side they are beating the virus and I think by the end of September something like 100,000 extra people will be allowed to work.

 

[drron]

But could it have all been very different?
The advantages of the NSW health system aside, Professor MacIntyre said this was no time to be patting anyone on the back.

She said NSW had kept up with contact tracing because it had a small daily number of cases for the past few months. But if that number spiked, the system wouldn't hold up.

"It's all about the volume of cases you've got to trace … not even the best resourced system will be able to keep up with contact tracing by writing contacts on a whiteboard and doing it manually, which is essentially what's been done everywhere, including NSW," she said.

Professor MacIntyre, who recently gave evidence at the COVID-19 Senate inquiry, said if NSW also had an infection surge like Victoria, authorities wouldn't necessarily be better placed to curb it.


She believes Australia needed to "get with the picture" and invest in digital contact tracing technologies to avoid overwhelming the "old-fashioned" manual system.

Professor Bennett agrees that NSW could easily be living under stage four lockdown restrictions like Victoria right now.

"But NSW had a heads up and could get ahead."

NSW had the ingredients for a second wave, but two key differences changed everything

NSW has been described as the "gold standard" of living with coronavirus. This is how authorities have managed to keep business open, and infections low in Australia's most populous state.

www.abc.net.au

Does the Professor realise that NSW along with SA and WA has been using a digital contact tracing system since April?
They use a commercial Customer management system who have developed a Contact tracing App based on their system.It was offered to all States towards the end of March.Victoria turned it down.
NSW now uses a digital system that they have developed themselves.
As usual QLD will not tell anyone what system if any they are using for contact tracing.As there are now 3 States using the Salesforce system I presume Tasmania must be using it.

Contact tracing is not just a Victorian failure

What if there is no vaccine? Or a slow vaccine? Australia will need a very good contact-tracing structure for a long time – and states will need to talk to each other.

www.smh.com.au

Also note in that report Colac Didn't trust the Government system and set up their own contact tracing unit.

And about Salesforce.

What Is Work.Com? Salesforce Workplace Operations Solutions

Work.com is a whole new Salesforce offering – comprising of applications, resources and content – that have all been created and bought together with tremendous speed and agility by the Salesforce product development teams.

www.salesforceben.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

People are still allowed to go to work aren't they, not just essential workers? Not really able to understand that one. Unless I've misunderstood the exclusion?

Go to work = no, not for the vast majority. Most retail is closed apart from food related businesses and those supplying essential works and construction industries.

Work from home = yes. Which allows many to work.

There are a number of businesses that are allowed to work but at much reduced levels. ie Construction 25% for major projects. Domestic buildings sites 5 people per site

There are also some manufacturing still occurring if related to essential services or construction. ie BIL at a heater manufacturer is going to work 3 days per week.

Essential work = yes. What is essential can be surprising. ie The Media.

Delivery workers are working. Auspost is working, but the receiving depots all have reduced numbers onsite.

Anyone still going to work has to be at a workplace with specific Covidsafe working plans. Normally this will be with reduced numbers.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

People are still allowed to go to work aren't they, not just essential workers? Not really able to understand that one. Unless I've misunderstood the exclusion?

There are minimal work changes at Step 2.

I think more childcare and more schools open.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Victoria

What you need to know about COVID-19 in Victoria.

www.vic.gov.au

 

[Pushka]

People are still allowed to go to work aren't they, not just essential workers? Not really able to understand that one. Unless I've misunderstood the exclusion?

As others have posted, it has been a full on lockdown. WFH mandatory unless essential worker at place of work. So it cant be like that for much longer. And my concern is that when it is less restricted, then the patterns of management may not have changed. Hope I'm wrong. I am usually a pollyanna but some of the things I've learnt in recent weeks about Covid management in Victoria have pretty much destroyed that.

 

[Flashback]

There are minimal work changes at Step 2.

I think more childcare and more schools open.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Victoria

What you need to know about COVID-19 in Victoria.

www.vic.gov.au

So some schools are currently open? That URL is a bit confusing, listed the steps but not saying which one is currently active.

Post automatically merged: Sep 12, 2020

As others have posted, it has been a full on lockdown. WFH mandatory unless essential worker at place of work. So it cant be like that for much longer. And my concern is that when it is less restricted, then the patterns of management may not have changed. Hope I'm wrong. I am usually a pollyanna but some of the things I've learnt in recent weeks about Covid management in Victoria have pretty much destroyed that.

If the UK is anything to go by, everything will be almost back to normal. I've not seen any social distancing for example going on at food venues, workplaces, etc.

 

[p--and--t]

Most retails is closed

As others have posted, it has been a full on lockdown. WFH mandatory unless essential worker at place of work. So it cant be like that for much longer. And my concern is that when it is less restricted, then the patterns of management may not have changed. Hope I'm wrong. I am usually a pollyanna but some of the things I've learnt in recent weeks about Covid management in Victoria have pretty much destroyed that.

Not quite correct, walk-in retail and anyone who didn't go on-line yes. Otherwise mainly no.

Under stage 4, I can reach discuss get advice pay and order and have delivered almost anything I want, from food to furniture shoes to clothes to a watch, some coat hangers, some kitchen storage containers, to a phone cover, to a microwave to a new oven in the last 3 weeks. BigW, Bunnings, Harvey Norman, The Good Guys and hundreds of others have click and collect or contactless delivery, I get daily emails for sportsware and a myriad other shops that have temporarily moved online.

Warehouses are open delivery services are running overtime, salespeople are still reachable, call centres have moved WFH

Coffee shops and cafes are open around the city selling takeaway, you have to be careful not to be run down by a silent electric bike food delivery rider. The central market is open for fresh food meat fish and veges.

I just can't touch before I buy and can't wander around a shop and I can't click and collect more than 5km away.

Things are not as draconian as people make out, and nothing like the previous impositions on NZers or Wuhan or Italy etc etc.

 

[Flashback]

Not quite correct, walk-in retail and anyone who didn't go on-line yes. Otherwise no.

Under stage 4, I can reach discuss get advice pay and order and have delivered almost anything I want, from food to furniture shoes to clothes to a watch, some coat hangers, some kitchen storage containers, to a phone cover, to a microwave to a new oven in the last 3 weeks. BigW, Bunnings, Harvey Norman, The Good Guys and hundreds of others have click and collect or contactless delivery, I get daily emails for sportsware and a myriad other shops that have temporarily moved online.

I just can't touch before I buy and can't wander around a shop and I can't click and collect more than 5km away.

Things are not as draconian as people make out, and nothing like the previous impositions on NZers or Wuhan or Italy etc etc.

Or the UK for that matter, when the only thing open for months was the supermarket.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Not quite correct, walk-in retail and anyone who didn't go on-line yes. Otherwise no.

Under stage 4, I can reach discuss get advice pay and order and have delivered almost anything I want, from food to furniture shoes to clothes to a watch, some coat hangers, some kitchen storage containers, to a phone cover, to a microwave to a new oven in the last 3 weeks. BigW, Bunnings, Harvey Norman, The Good Guys and hundreds of others have click and collect or contactless delivery, I get daily emails for sportsware and a myriad other shops that have temporarily moved online.

Warehouses are open delivery services are running overtime, salespeople are still reachable, call centres have moved WFH

Coffee shops and cafes are open around the city selling takeaway, you have to be careful not to be run down by a silent electric bike food delivery rider. The central market is open for fresh food meat fish and veges.

I just can't touch before I buy and can't wander around a shop and I can't click and collect more than 5km away.

Things are not as draconian as people make out, and nothing like the previous impositions on NZers or Wuhan or Italy etc etc.

Depends on your circumstances doesn’t it? If you were running a little landscaping business you might have a different viewpoint. While it may not be as strict as some others have been a large number of small businesses have been severely impacted

 

[p--and--t]

Depends on your circumstances doesn’t it? If you were running a little landscaping business you might have a different viewpoint. While it may not be as strict as some others have been a large number of small businesses have been severely impacted

Not denying 10,000's workers are sitting at home desperate to get back to work. However, lets get the facts out. Its bad, the economy is shocking but it is not what is is being painted to be by some, especially those who don't live here.

There is construction going on all around me every day, cement mixers queuing up in the street. Construction workers blocking the footpath having their lunch from nearby cafes. Not nearly as many as before, But we are definitely not shut down and nowhere near as much as many other citys overseas were.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Or the UK for that matter, when the only thing open for months was the supermarket.

You could still buy things online in the UK during the lockdown and get them delivered? Dr FM bought a number of things, including a mixer and blender, so she could alleviate her boredom by cooking

 

[Pushka]

Not quite correct, walk-in retail and anyone who didn't go on-line yes. Otherwise mainly no.

Under stage 4, I can reach discuss get advice pay and order and have delivered almost anything I want, from food to furniture shoes to clothes to a watch, some coat hangers, some kitchen storage containers, to a phone cover, to a microwave to a new oven in the last 3 weeks. BigW, Bunnings, Harvey Norman, The Good Guys and hundreds of others have click and collect or contactless delivery, I get daily emails for sportsware and a myriad other shops that have temporarily moved online.

Warehouses are open delivery services are running overtime, salespeople are still reachable, call centres have moved WFH

Coffee shops and cafes are open around the city selling takeaway, you have to be careful not to be run down by a silent electric bike food delivery rider. The central market is open for fresh food meat fish and veges.

I just can't touch before I buy and can't wander around a shop and I can't click and collect more than 5km away.

Things are not as draconian as people make out, and nothing like the previous impositions on NZers or Wuhan or Italy etc etc.

How about maunfacturing? Retail is pretty much as normal in SA but the issue for larger items is that they are made in Victoria. We have had one item on order for a while now but knew there would be delays.

 

[RooFlyer]

Does the Professor realise that NSW along with SA and WA has been using a digital contact tracing system since April?

Victoria used digital contacting technology as well : fax machines