Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[SydneySwan]

On the testing volumes, the figures to yesterday had VIC on 2,456,924 and NSW only 10k behind. NSW has been rapidly catching VIC as it was well over 100k behind about 10-12 days ago. NSW had over 40k tests one day recently.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Other states are managing hotel quarantine OK, with a few blips, so Victoria has a template to follow and the current inquiry should make it clear where things went wrong, so I can’t see why planes can’t start landing in Melbourne again

Hotel quarantine still operates in Victoria. Not for currently returning international travellers (though this will eventually be resumed), but for anyone else that needs to be quarantined. This also includes those that are quarantined because they cannot self-isolate at home. ie Nurses etc who may have become infected, or their colleagues did, and whose living arrangements (ie partners and children at home) did not allow self-isolation.

These quarantine facilities are managed by Corrections Victoria and the other staff are in the main stood-down airline staff ( including one friend of mine) who have now been trained for the role rather than the private security guards that most states currently still use.

 

[Pushka]

Hotel quarantine still operates in Victoria. Not for currently returning international travellers (though this will eventually be resumed), but for anyone else that needs to be quarantined. This also includes those that are quarantine because they cannot self-isolate at home. ie Nurses etc who may have become infected, or their colleagues did, and whose living arrangements (ie partners and children at home) did not allow self-isolation.

These quarantine facilities are managed by Corrections Victoria and the other staff are in the main stood-down airline staff ( including one friend of mine) who have now been trained for the role rather than the private security guards that most states currently still use.

Being able to safely quarantine returning overseas travellers is the main key to resuming some kind of normal.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Hotel quarantine still operates in Victoria. Not for currently returning international travellers (though this will eventually be resumed), but for anyone else that needs to be quarantined. This also includes those that are quarantine because they cannot self-isolate at home. ie Nurses etc who may have become infected, or their colleagues did, and whose living arrangements (ie partners and children at home) did not allow self-isolation.

These quarantine facilities are managed by Corrections Victoria and the other staff are in the main stood-down airline staff ( including one friend of mine) who have now been trained for the role rather than the private security guards that most states currently still use.

Oh yes that’s right - I had read about hotels for health workers. Quarantining overseas travellers and interstate seems a lot harder with a % trying to escape or do the wrong thing. Do you know if the same system will be used when flights resume - will they have enough Corrections Victoria staff? Using private security plus defence/police doesn’t seem an issue if it’s properly managed. Although NSW had an issue recently with a security guard.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

On the testing volumes, the figures to yesterday had VIC on 2,456,924 and NSW only 10k behind. NSW has been rapidly catching VIC as it was well over 100k behind about 10-12 days ago. NSW had over 40k tests one day recently.

NSW needs this as:

• in the main its method to control CV19 is via testing and contact tracing.
• there are few controls in place to actually limit transmission, and hence any new cases could rapidly spread.

Whereas in Melbourne the many restrictions mean that the likely transmission rate would be much lower Also that many who do get infected will not pass it on, as simply we have very limited means to do so. This is say different to the recent Colac cluster where a person visited Melbourne, got infected , and then on return was out and about and before it was realised that they were contagious a new cluster that became 25 developed.

 

[jakeseven7]

Anyway baby steps. Let’s get SA, NSW, ACT and NT open to each other,

Don’t forget Tassie

 

[Pushka]

Don’t forget Tassie

As per previous thread on border closures - classic example.

 

[Pushka]

Maybe the medicos can help me understand what is happening in SA. We receive international passengers. Yeaterday one of those tested positive on Day 12 having tested Negative on Day 1. A woman in her twenties and who is otherwise well. She is not regarded as active. Nor infectious. And so not included in the active tally and the reason being that they consider it an old infection. Given the incubation period can be 14 days, why is she not considered active having gone from negative to positive during this time? Has something changed with the criteria?

 

[jakeseven7]

On the testing volumes, the figures to yesterday had VIC on 2,456,924 and NSW only 10k behind. NSW has been rapidly catching VIC as it was well over 100k behind about 10-12 days ago. NSW had over 40k tests one day recently.

Australians living in Vic have been locked away not able to spread anything let alone respiratory illnesses for weeks and weeks.

Hardly surprising, NSWs testing rates should be much higher with VIC in line with their strategy right now.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Oh yes that’s right - I had read about hotels for health workers. Quarantining overseas travellers and interstate seems a lot harder with a % trying to escape or do the wrong thing. Do you know if the same system will be used when flights resume - will they have enough Corrections Victoria staff?

I believe so as when this was set up international quarantine was still operating.

Remember that their (Corrections Victoria) role is managing and supervising it, and not fully staffing it. Other dedicated workers have been hired to perform the role that security staff are performing in other states and that is their sole full time job. It is well paid, and they are not pulling shift at non-quarantine locations such as occurs in other states.

Wheres in NSW you hada guard who became infected who was working at multiple locations, some quarantine locations and some such as shopping centres were Joe-public was being mixed with (so hardly a good system).

Using private security plus defence/police doesn’t seem an issue if it’s properly managed. Although NSW had an issue recently with a security guard.

Well if you look at it as hotel quarantine still being required for 1 to 2 years is it really appropriate to tie up ADF staff for such a purpose for so long?

Or does it make more sense to have it managed by a group of people whose job it is to be always managing people in confinement?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Dan indicating that Regional Vic is currently on track to take a double step by mid next week.

Not guaranteed though. But is looking likely.

The recent feared positive unknown community spread case in Regional Vic turned out to be a false-positive.

 

[p--and--t]

So those figures took into account covid marked deaths, and the rate is still lower?

Yes. I have read where experts have said what is important is comparing total deaths compared to total death year to year for cohorts as the only way to be sure the figures are realistic. The figure, IIRC was quoted on AFF in one of the multitude of covid threads, showed overall deaths in nursing homes has dropped markedly.

The supposition is significant increase in flu vaccine administration and increase in hygiene practices.

Allegedly a large percentage of deaths in a normal year in the very elderly is "chest infections".

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Update on Vic Targets.






Regional graph not yet updated.....but with my crude drawing in red (previous low was 4.5) it should be something like:

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The good news both in terms of minimising serious CV19 symptoms as well as mortality is that all of hospitalisations, those in ICU and those on ventilators are ver much on the decline.




Sadly while new cases in Aged Care are on the decline, they are still occurring in this most vulnerable group.



Tables are from covidlive.com.au

 

[Flying mermaid]

Don’t forget Tassie

I would love Tassie but I don’t think they want us

 

[Flying mermaid]

I believe so as when this was set up international quarantine was still operating.

Remember that their (Corrections Victoria) role is managing and supervising it, and not fully staffing it. Other dedicated workers have been hired to perform the role that security staff are performing in other states and that is their sole full time job. It is well paid, and they are not pulling shift at non-quarantine locations such as occurs in other states.

Wheres in NSW you hada guard who became infected who was working at multiple locations, some quarantine locations and some such as shopping centres were Joe-public was being mixed with (so hardly a good system).



Well if you look at it as hotel quarantine still being required for 1 to 2 years is it really appropriate to tie up ADF staff for such a purpose for so long?

Or does it make more sense to have it managed by a group of people whose job it is to be always managing people in confinement?

To be honest I don’t care what system is used as long as it works....What Victoria had before seems (going on the inquiry) to have been a disaster, so if they now have a good system - great, as we clearly need to be able to bring more flights into Australia. (Declaration of self interest - I have a daughter who needs to return in February ).

The contact tracing also appears to have been less than adequate, but Sutton said today that they have made a lot of improvements. So all in all Victoria has done the hard yards and looking good to get back to normal and be able to do the same suppression strategy that the others have done. So maybe Australia (apart from WA and maybe Tas), open for Christmas.

 

[Pushka]

To be honest I don’t care what system is used as long as it works....What Victoria had before seems (going on the inquiry) to have been a disaster, so if they now have a good system - great, as we clearly need to be able to bring more flights into Australia. (Declaration of self interest - I have a daughter who needs to return in February ).

Currently Victoria is in pretty much lockdown. The figures should be going down in that situation regardless of what is done on the medical scene. So the elephant in the room is what happens when things start to ease back to normal, which they must do. Which gets back to my question of a couple of days ago, will anything actually change as far as preventive processes and tracing goes? Have the lessons really been learnt?

 

[Flying mermaid]

Currently Victoria is in pretty much lockdown. The figures should be going down in that situation regardless of what is done on the medical scene. So the elephant in the room is what happens when things start to ease back to normal, which they must do. Which gets back to my question of a couple of days ago, will anything actually change as far as preventive processes and tracing goes? Have the lessons really been learnt?

You are right - we don’t know until they open up. Being my usual Pollyanna self I am hopeful they will have. There has been a huge light shone on the various processes and it’s not like they don’t want to do the right thing. No doubt there has been some vested interests and “ownership” of various processes among the bureaucrats but with the constant focus on it you would think there have been significant changes by now. Sutton did say that today - improvements in It systems etc.

 

[Pushka]

You are right - we don’t know until they open up. Being my usual Pollyanna self I am hopeful they will have. There has been a huge light shone on the various processes and it’s not like they don’t want to do the right thing. No doubt there has been some vested interests and “ownership” of various processes among the bureaucrats but with the constant focus on it you would think there have been significant changes by now. Sutton did say that today - improvements in It systems etc.

We need a icon.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

To be honest I don’t care what system is used as long as it works....What Victoria had before seems (going on the inquiry) to have been a disaster, so if they now have a good system - great, as we clearly need to be able to bring more flights into Australia. (Declaration of self interest - I have a daughter who needs to return in February ).

The contact tracing also appears to have been less than adequate, but Sutton said today that they have made a lot of improvements. So all in all Victoria has done the hard yards and looking good to get back to normal and be able to do the same suppression strategy that the others have done. So maybe Australia (apart from WA and maybe Tas), open for Christmas.

Things have from reports changed in many ways.

Importantly too this includes not just contact tracing but work practices and requirements in more vulnerable businesses like abattoirs. As well as access to payments for those having to isolate who do not have access to sickleave. In aged care facilities it is the Federal Government that sets the standards and protocols and who is meant to monitoring if these are being achieved or not. Hopefully they doing what they should be doing.


However knowing what I know now what really seems to have allowed the Second Wave to really build momentum was it getting out into a community sector who for a variety of reasons (economic, more crowded housing, inter-generational living, lack of sickleave, mistrust in authorities/government, religious mixing etc) 1/ had close mixing conditions and 2/ often did not present for testing, and if they did often did not isolate including in some cases Contact tracing and isolation relies on individuals to be compliant and when this is not so, problems arise. In NZ their second wave seems to be trickling along due to a particular religious group of people and their behaviours. I also tend to believe that as the Second Wave in Vic was from new genomic strains that it also caught the contact tracers unawares as they were entirely new outbreaks being grown. They were busy put out the last embers of the First Wave strains, not realising that an entirely new set of strains had taken root. As genomic testing lags the initial test by some weeks it also delayed when it was known that a new wave had begun.

While NSW also had the Second Wave, they also very much knew it was coming and so were looking for it. However despite having a reportedly excellent contract tracing system, CV19 cases continue to happen. But yes importantly they are not growing out of control.

It may be that in Vic that better contract tracing would have reduced the second wave to just a ripple. However as the areas in Melbourne and Victoria that did not have the factors described in 1/ and 2/ above had in general much lower case rates I would tend to think that the Second Wave was not just due to the ability of contact tracing (which agreed was not adequate) which we all know did become overwhelmed, but also very much due to how some individuals chose to act



But could it have all been very different?
The advantages of the NSW health system aside, Professor MacIntyre said this was no time to be patting anyone on the back.

She said NSW had kept up with contact tracing because it had a small daily number of cases for the past few months. But if that number spiked, the system wouldn't hold up.

"It's all about the volume of cases you've got to trace … not even the best resourced system will be able to keep up with contact tracing by writing contacts on a whiteboard and doing it manually, which is essentially what's been done everywhere, including NSW," she said.

Professor MacIntyre, who recently gave evidence at the COVID-19 Senate inquiry, said if NSW also had an infection surge like Victoria, authorities wouldn't necessarily be better placed to curb it.

"They'd be in the same boat and contacts wouldn't be hearing from anyone for over a week."

She believes Australia needed to "get with the picture" and invest in digital contact tracing technologies to avoid overwhelming the "old-fashioned" manual system.

Professor Bennett agrees that NSW could easily be living under stage four lockdown restrictions like Victoria right now.

"But NSW had a heads up and could get ahead."

NSW had the ingredients for a second wave, but two key differences changed everything

NSW has been described as the "gold standard" of living with coronavirus. This is how authorities have managed to keep business open, and infections low in Australia's most populous state.

www.abc.net.au