Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Flying mermaid]

You know what? If there is no vaccine then this awful cycle is going to repeated again and again unless the virus does a Swine Flu and just goes pffft. I'm not convinced we can stem the tide whatever we do once we return to any kind of normal.

NSW, ACT and QLD have done a pretty good job of keeping it controlled without going through what Vic has. Whether Vic has the ability remains to be seen....

 

[Pushka]

NSW, ACT and QLD have done a pretty good job of keeping it controlled without going through what Vic has. Whether Vic has the ability remains to be seen....

Agree with that but life is still restricted although in SA, not so much in daily routines. But there is no travel. NSW had a very poor start but as you say have maintained control of it. Tracing and testing seems to be the key once there is a flare.

 

[Flashback]

In the UK it is just a week after turning positive.

Yes, 7 days for the infected and 14 days for anyone living with them who then might get it.

 

[p--and--t]

With everything closed anyway, and no visiting etc, it is not like the curfew is of any real inconvenience to those of us following the rules. It does make life a lot easier of the police at present and moreso given all the extra CV19 related duties.

Absolutely. If the only reasons for leaving home is supermarket chemist work or caregiving and you are following the rules (supermarket and chemists are closed) the curfew has almost zero effect on law abiding citizens. But gives great powers to the police for those who think they are above the law.

 

[RooFlyer]

I guess I can add cowardice to other descriptions of Premier Palaszczuk.

Annastacia Palaszczuk has admitted that everyone who saw images of young woman Sarah Caisip, dressed in full PPE to see her father’s body, was “heartbroken” including her.

“Everyone who has seen those images is heartbroken,” she said.

But she said it was not her decision about whether Ms Caisip and other people could have exemptions from hotel quarantine.

“I don’t make those decisions … under the Act, it’s her (Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young) decision,” she said.

Dr Young is absent today, taking a long weekend off.


In news from the Victorian inquiry, we find that CMO Sutton was actually blocked from leading the pandemic response:

Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy offered Australian Defence Force troops to his Victorian counterpart, Brett Sutton, to be used in the state’s bungled hotel quarantine program instead of security guards, an inquiry has heard.

The probe into the fiasco heard Professor Sutton, as Victoria’s top public health official, wanted to lead the state’s response to the pandemic but was denied by the Department of Health and Human Services.

In the statement of DHHS deputy secretary Melissa Skilbeck, she said she discussed “alternative options” for private security in the hotel quarantine program — which included expanding the role of the ADF — in a phone call with DHHS secretary Kym Peake on June 23.

“Ultimately, the Victorian government made the decision to utilise Corrections Victoria personnel, supported by Victoria Police, in delivery of security functions for hotel quarantine operations,” she said.
...
When Mr Ihle asked Ms Skilbeck if Professor Sutton was against the decision to appoint someone other than him, she said: “Yes, he was.”

and ...

The inquiry was shown a review into the apparent suicide of a hotel quarantine guest in April that found at least five phone calls to him went unanswered before his body was found.

“Due to a lack of formal system for documenting these unanswered calls, the review team could not be certain if there were more unanswered calls,” the Safer Care Victoria review said.

“There was a delay of more than 24 hours from the time (redacted) last answered a COVID-19 assessment symptom screening call (approximately 16.00 on 10/04/2020, as per police witness statement) to when the AO, nurse and security guard forced entry to his room at approximately 17.30 on 11/04/2020.”

The inquiry heard travel agency Helloworld assisted in making welfare check calls.

 

[jakeseven7]

I guess I can add cowardice to other descriptions of Premier Palaszczuk.

“I don’t make those decisions … under the Act, it’s her (Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young) decision,” she said.

Mmmm hmmmm sure thing.

Dr Young is absent today, taking a long weekend off.

.... to consider her future? Or is she doing an ‘Anna’! Maybe Anna taught her! Do whatever you like but just bail on the next day to avoid the hard questions.

So anyway the ABC analyst did a presentation on tonight’s news and modelled VIC could be at an active case load equal to NSW in about 2 -3 weeks if the new additions keep dropping. Fingers crossed....

 

[Flying mermaid]

Agree with that but life is still restricted although in SA, not so much in daily routines. But there is no travel. NSW had a very poor start but as you say have maintained control of it. Tracing and testing seems to be the key once there is a flare.

I think we will be seeing travel within a few months - maybe not to Vic though. If they can just prove they can control flare ups like the others are doing then there is no reason why they can’t be included, but jury still out on that.

I agree we will continue to see cases pop up, but they don’t need to turn into new waves. Of course QLD, WA and Tas will have to be prepared to risk opening borders.....

SA looks like opening to NSW and ACT quite soon and if that is successful maybe QLD will follow. Of course if VIC has a third wave then I don’t see any hope

 

[straitman]

I think we will be seeing travel within a few months - maybe not to Vic though. If they can just prove they can control flare ups like the others are doing then there is no reason why they can’t be included, but jury still out on that.

I agree we will continue to see cases pop up, but they don’t need to turn into new waves. Of course QLD, WA and Tas will have to be prepared to risk opening borders.....

SA looks like opening to NSW and ACT quite soon and if that is successful maybe QLD will follow. Of course if VIC has a third wave then I don’t see any hope

Remember that Melbourne is the problem and not Victoria as a whole. Many areas in Vic have had no cases for weeks/months.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Remember that Melbourne is the problem and not Victoria as a whole. Many areas in Vic have had no cases for weeks/months.

Sorry yes! I do know regional Victoria is doing really well. It’s sort of easier to put Vic than Melbourne, but I will change that in future,

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sorry yes! I do know regional Victoria is doing really well. It’s sort of easier to put Vic than Melbourne, but I will change that in future,

If you go granular by postcode you can see where the active CV19 locations (active cases/100,000 residents) are both within the Melbourne GMMA and in Regional Vic. The map is increasingly going white (Zero active cases), including my own suburb.

Health.vic

At the Department of Health, we’re focused on supporting Victorians to be as healthy as they can by delivering a world-class health system that focuses on improving patient outcomes and experiences.

www.dhhs.vic.gov.au

 

[Pushka]

maybe not to Vic though. If they can just prove they can control flare ups like the others are doing then there is no reason why they can’t be included, but jury still out on that.

And that is indeed the 64 million dollar question. Have lessons been learnt or has this whole thing with the States and borders and controls and tracing become a matter of beligerance to continue with old and unsafe ways or ultimate in protectionism. And when can it be proven that proper decisions are made with quarantine processes so that returning travellers can come to Victoria again and keep Australia safe in the process and open up opportunities. Australia is being a bit renegade in this at the moment.

 

[Pushka]

Seems the professionals who developed the modelling used for the Victorian lock down are less than happy with the implementation process and end goals which they feel are not achievable.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Interesting opinion piece by Joe Hildebrand

Why Dan Andrews is ‘punishing’ Victorians

COMMENT

www.news.com.au

 

[straitman]

37 cases and 6 deaths in Victoria

Testing is also down though.

 

[Pushka]

37 cases and 6 deaths in Victoria

testing is also down though.

We were discussing the death rate a moment ago. In particular in Nursing Homes. The sad reality is that Nursing Homes are obviously the final stages of life. Confounding that is that a death of a person positive for covid is a covid death regardless of whether the person died of that (witness the recent possibility of the drug overdose being put as covid death). So is there any data on whether the death rate in Nursing Homes is actually any different than previous averages?

 

[jakeseven7]

37 cases and 6 deaths in Victoria

Testing is also down though.

There was a huge piece on testing rates this morning on ABC news radio.

The discussion was around the fact most Melburnians have been in lock down for so long, public interactions so low, that any disease generating any similar COVID like symptom (prompting the person to get tested) and of course COVID itself has really been squashed hard by lack of movement and interaction.

It also discussed that now it’s warmer in Melbourne that it’s the start of the usual decline in respiratory type illnesses even if there was movement of people because people are outdoors more, less confined inside where they are closer etc etc - the usual.

So the epidemiologist on there was saying that with all of this, they may have to move to asymptomatic testing to get the rates up again - BUT that has proved hugely inefficient in both VIC and NSW at finding the virus unless you are confirmed and known ‘very close contact’.

 

[p--and--t]

We were discussing the death rate a moment ago. In particular in Nursing Homes. The sad reality is that Nursing Homes are obviously the final stages of life. Confounding that is that a death of a person positive for covid is a covid death regardless of whether the person died of that (witness the recent possibility of the drug overdose being put as covid death). So is there any data on whether the death rate in Nursing Homes is actually any different than previous averages?

That was reported a week or so ago. The death rates for nursing homes is significantly down overall (not just normal variance).

I don't recall whether the figures being quoted were for Vic or AU.

 

[Pushka]

That was reported a week or so ago. The death rates for nursing homes is significantly down overall (not just normal variance).

I don't recall whether the figures being quoted were for Vic or AU.

So those figures took into account covid marked deaths, and the rate is still lower?

Post automatically merged: Sep 12, 2020

So the epidemiologist on there was saying that with all of this, they may have to move to asymptomatic testing to get the rates up again - BUT that has proved hugely inefficient in both VIC and NSW at finding the virus unless you are confirmed and known ‘very close contact’.

So in a sense we have gone full circle with testing protocols? I know the Covid testing stations in Adelaide are deserted these days.

On the three plane flights we took a couple of weeks ago, there were none of the normal coughs and sneezes you usually hear on flights.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

On the lower testing volumes:

I think that there will be a massive difference between Melbourne (and to a lower extent Regional Vic) and the rest of Australia at present as the strict control measures will be reducing spread of the various things that cause the list of symptoms that have people then present for a CV19 test (as in the main that only the symptomatic get tested) will all be being squashed, whereas elsewhere the common cold etc will with no or few controls all be on the rise.

Symptomatic cases then leads to the asymptomatic cases being either identified, or if not identified , sent into self-isolation as a close contact.

When the large number of CV19 cases occurring what was really knocking the hospitals around were all the close contacts in their workforces that had to go into isolation.


With cases continuing to drop contact tracing will continue to improve in effectiveness. One could imagine that more targeted asymptomatic testing may also then be done. It cannot be widespread asymptomatic testing as that just clogs the testing up and slows down finding the infected when they are all at their most infectious.

ie Say a supermarket case is found, you would imagine that they may ask everyone who was at the store at a given time range may be asked to be tested whether symptomatic or not.

 

[Flying mermaid]

And that is indeed the 64 million dollar question. Have lessons been learnt or has this whole thing with the States and borders and controls and tracing become a matter of beligerance to continue with old and unsafe ways or ultimate in protectionism. And when can it be proven that proper decisions are made with quarantine processes so that returning travellers can come to Victoria again and keep Australia safe in the process and open up opportunities. Australia is being a bit renegade in this at the moment.

Well I guess we will see. Other states are managing hotel quarantine OK, with a few blips, so Victoria has a template to follow and the current inquiry should make it clear where things went wrong, so I can’t see why planes can’t start landing in Melbourne again. Doubt it will be before next year though. All their efforts are concentrated on opening up Melbourne.

Anyway baby steps. Let’s get SA, NSW, ACT and NT open to each other, demonstrate people can move around and any flare ups quickly suppressed and then maybe more states can be added. Once the QLD election is out the way that should help.