Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Updated Trigger Graphs:

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I prefer to call them people failures. This is 100% about human behaviour in response (or lack of response) to the virus.

That was part of it. But contact tracing etc were also not up to scratch and so also system failures. Not enough workplaces had adopted CV19 measures. And in Aged Care the CV19 guidelines were not being followed at many facilities leaving them vulnerable. So again system failures.

Also part of it was probably being caught unawares that a second wave had started due to new strains having emerged.

As genomic testing lags positive tests by several weeks that part was less surprising, but it probably in part led to the "new" cases just being considered as first wave cases that had popped up rather than the tip of an entirely new CV19 iceberg.

ie They probably thought they were stamping out embers, when in fact an entirely new bushfire had started.

The timing of the second wave starting at exactly the same time as the first wave was being extinguished was most unfortunate. I suspect that if it had been say a month later then there would have been a better response.

 

[p--and--t]

That was part of it. But contact tracing etc were also not up to scratch and so also system failures. Not enough workplaces had adopted CV19 measures. And in Aged Care the CV19 guidelines were not being followed at many facilities leaving them vulnerable. So again system failures.

Also part of it was probably being caught unawares that a second wave had started due to new strains having emerged.

As genomic testing lags positive tests by several weeks that part was less surprising, but it probably in part led to the "new" cases just being considered as first wave cases that had popped up rather than the tip of an entirely new CV19 iceberg.

ie They probably thought they were stamping out embers, when in fact an entirely new bushfire had started.

The timing of the second wave starting at exactly the same time as the first wave was being extinguished was most unfortunate. I suspect that if it had been say a month later then there would have been a better response.

Sure.

But, its a bit chicken and the egg. If people didn't get infected we wouldn't need a contact trace team.

When restrictions were put in place if everybody followed the directions 100%, then its unlikely we would be where we are.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Only one new community case in NSW. So good news.





NSW Health
@NSWHealth
Four new cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed in the 24 hours to 8pm last night, bringing the total number of cases in NSW to 3,981.

Of the four new cases:
• Three are returned overseas travellers in hotel quarantine
• One is locally acquired and linked to a known case or cluster



11:03 AM · Sep 14, 2020

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW down to one community transmission (unknown source/mystery case) every second day, both over two weeks and four weeks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NSW down to one community transmission (unknown source/mystery case) every second day, both over two weeks and four weeks.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think Vic community transmission (unknown source/mystery case) is up net 6 today.

As Melbourne gets to below 50 for the 14-day average,it will be interesting to what ‘not a day longer than necessary’ means, since there is a date and a target range. In the event it is say 29.9 before 28 September, you would hope Vic Premier/CHO pull the trigger early.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

View attachment 227387


View attachment 227388

They might be correct as at day of reporting but cases get resolved/unresolved over time. Right now it’s:
- 3 this week,
- 4 last week (ie 8-14 days)
- 7 more in the period 15-28 days,

So still the average is down to one every second day. It was averaging at 1 per day for a period of time earlier this month.

 

[MelMel]

I think Vic community transmission (unknown source/mystery case) is up net 6 today.

As Melbourne gets to below 50 for the 14-day average,it will be interesting to what ‘not a day longer than necessary’ means, since there is a date and a target range. In the event it is say 29.9 before 28 September, you would hope Vic Premier/CHO pull the trigger early.

I could be mistaken but I think I read that the 28th September was a hard date and 26th October was flexible

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I could be mistaken but I think I read that the 28th September was a hard date and 26th October was flexible

Yes that’s my understanding too (it’s a hard date), but it would be a great move to actually do something surprising when you are below the target range early despite the hard date.

 

[dajop]

Interesting this morning some discussion of transmission within a specific community in SE Melbourne. I hope they can achieve a better outcome, and have learnt good lessons, and we don't see a repeat of last time when the disease got into a socioeconomically disadvantaged community.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think Vic community transmission (unknown source/mystery case) is up net 6 today.

There is so much correcting of Victorian data going on at present , together with cases under investigation, that it is a but difficult to actually know what the true unknown/mystery cases on an given day actually is.

Also it is quite normal that what might be a mystery case, will not stay that after investigation.

As Melbourne gets to below 50 for the 14-day average,it will be interesting to what ‘not a day longer than necessary’ means, since there is a date and a target range. In the event it is say 29.9 before 28 September, you would hope Vic Premier/CHO pull the trigger early.

Yes we can hope.

They look to be taking several days longer with Regional Vic on a smaller target of 5 to move to the less restrictive step, so with a higher target of 50 (which means more community spread) combined with much greater population spread and mixing (ie at workplaces) my guess is that they will act slower for Melbourne than Regional Vic.

Mind you the next step for Melbourne is not a lot different from the current level anyway. We really need Step 3 to have an appreciable difference including many more back to work.


However the rate new cases per day is dropping is most promising.

 

[jakeseven7]

Interesting this morning some discussion of transmission within a specific community in SE Melbourne. I hope they can achieve a better outcome, and have learnt good lessons, and we don't see a repeat of last time when the disease got into a socioeconomically disadvantaged community.

Yes and interesting that Syd and Mel are experiencing and reporting exactly same thing today - lower testing numbers than they would both like and also they think there are geographic areas where more people need to be tested (Syd again called out W and SW Syd)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

There is so much correcting of Victorian data going on at present , together with cases under investigation, that it is a but difficult to actually know what the true unknown/mystery cases on an given day actually is.

Also it is quite normal that what might be a mystery case, will not stay that after investigation.


View attachment 227390

Yes we can hope.

They look to be taking several days longer with Regional Vic on a smaller target of 5 to move to the less restrictive step, so with a higher target of 50 (which means more community spread) combined with much greater population spread and mixing (ie at workplaces) my guess is that they will act slower for Melbourne than Regional Vic.

Mind you the next step for Melbourne is not a lot different from the current level anyway. We really need Step 3 to have an appreciable difference including many more back to work.


However the rate new cases per day is dropping is most promising.

For Regional Victoria, they haven’t reached the other trigger of 0 mystery cases over 14 days

I’ve only heard 8 cases over 14 days about 5-7 days ago now and Vic Premier indicating middle of this week, so perhaps Wednesday is the 12-14th day since a mystery case occurred.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Interesting this morning some discussion of transmission within a specific community in SE Melbourne. I hope they can achieve a better outcome, and have learnt good lessons, and we don't see a repeat of last time when the disease got into a socioeconomically disadvantaged community.

These spots in the SE were some of the first areas that took off after the Northern Suburbs, and have continued. In big LGA.today's presser they saud Casey which is a

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes and interesting that Syd and Mel are experiencing and reporting exactly same thing today - lower testing numbers than they would both like and also they think there are geographic areas where more people need to be tested (Syd again called out W and SW Syd)

Obviously I’m not an epidemiologist but I think those Sydney regions are a bit old news. They’ve been asked for over month now. If they were going to catch the community transmission the moment has long passed.

 

[dajop]

Yes and interesting that Syd and Mel are experiencing and reporting exactly same thing today - lower testing numbers than they would both like and also they think there are geographic areas where more people need to be tested (Syd again called out W and SW Syd)

It was actually encouraging to see the government did not dance around the issue and specifically called out the Afghan community in SE Melbourne as needing support to tackle the virus.

 

[p--and--t]

I'm guessing the ratio of changes will increase as the volume decreases and tracing improved until we reach a position of low single digit increases and residual total infected drops markedly over the next 14-28 days.

 

[RooFlyer]

She was asked politely numerous times and she refused to cooperate. So what are police supposed to do? Let her drive on and post her video showing her beating the police? What was the piece of paper in her hand - another script stating she was a sovereign citizen?

It was an ugly scene but I am just not sure how else you handle someone not obeying direct orders...

Oh, I agree with you. Once she refused to do this and that, All bets were off ( and that’s why I posted the clarification. It was only the ‘dragged out by the legs’ I was left wondering about.

 

[Himeno]

IIRC the ACT has had the most liberal attitude (least Restrictions) to trading for a very long time. I seem to recall from vague imprecise memories several decades ago you could buy groceries & booze almost anytime anywhere and adult products on sale not available anywhere else in the country.

and some of the candidates for the upcoming ACT election want to bring back fireworks sales for Queens Birthday weekend after they were banded for general sale almost 10 years ago.