Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[antycbr]

The lack of testing is a real concern, would not be surprised if numbers start ticking upwards in next few weeks. SIgh. I get why people are desperate for things to open up and that may be part of the reason why they choose not to get tested but I just wish they would think about the potential damage they can do to others. Rant over

Two things on this:
- the number of people who are displaying any symptoms is dropping as the weather improves and the continued social distancing drops the rate of common cold transmission.
- the requirement to isolate after a test is still a disincentive. We need to be moving to a positive model for this to encourage people to test - like blood donations. The current approach is still a bit negative in NSW.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on the Step 3 for Melbourne.

RATING VICTORIA’S COVID-19 ROADMAP​

Epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely gives Victoria’s Roadmap out of the COVID-19 restrictions 8 out of 10 – noting there may be scope for easing some restrictions sooner​

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By Professor Tony Blakely, University of Melbourne​

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Rating Victoria’s COVID-19 Roadmap

Victoria’s Roadmap out of the COVID-19 restrictions is good but there are grounds for tweaking it, says University of Melbourne expert Professor Tony Blakely

pursuit.unimelb.edu.au

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Extract (and my bolding):​

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Which only leaves one trigger – moving to Step 3.​

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This is the one we were charged with focusing on in our modelling. It’s also the one everyone is focusing on and using to judge the Roadmap.​

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As pointed out earlier, the trigger proposed in the Roadmap to get to Step 3 is a 14-day average of less than five cases per day, and less than five mystery cases in total over the last 14 days.​

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Ouch – that is tough. By this standard, NSW wouldn’t be at this step.​

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Our modelling suggested that easing too soon from Step 2 (that is from Stage 3-like restrictions) increases the risk of a lockdown by Christmas. But while our model is clever, it’s not so clever that it can incorporate all nuance.​

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For example, mystery versus non-mystery cases, and being able to isolate clusters of highly interconnected cases from more disperse cases.​

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That requires expert judgement.​

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If we can keep mystery cases low and keep clusters isolated, and we are mostly aiming for tight suppression with elimination only as a welcome bonus, then I think we could relax the trigger for getting to Step 3.​

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Moreover, we should recognise the growing expertise of our public health workforce to sledgehammer outbreaks early, and contact trace. And we could evolve to smart mask policy including requiring better fitting masks on public transport and busy indoor environments.​

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These factors should increase our protection from a resurgence.​

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These tweaks – I argue – could see us transition safely to Step 3 at a higher threshold than five cases on average per day, and considerably earlier than the October 26 target, without too much increased risk.​

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So, that is a score of three out of five on Triggers: one point lost for that all important transition to Step 3, and half a point off for each of the next two Triggers due to lack of clarity about mystery cases.​

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A total score of 8 out of 10.​

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Overall, this Roadmap is good. It is transparent. And we can tweak it to become even better as we go.​

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Dan and the Health Officers have stated that they reserve the right to change things, and today we saw that with the Dining Rules (ie moving straight to indoor dining, and not outdoor dining only).

If the five mystery cases in total over the last 14 days. requirement remains then this looks to be the requirement that will determine when Step 3 in Melbourne occurs as we will soon be under the 14 day average of 5 re day requirement. (Note was a typo at 50, changed to 5)

On the 14 day measures mystery cases are about 11 % of 14 day cases. If that % remained it would mean that 14 day cases would need to have dropped to about 55 cases. (Last 14 days is 741 cases).

On the hopeful side daily cases have been dropping steadily. On the negative side cases could flatten off, and indeed over the last five days have flattened off which is more than a tad worrying.

With few restrictions NZ, Qld and NSW ( all with different settings) recent experience shows that if restrictions are few that reducing the case rate is a very slow process and so easing restrictions now in Melbourne to Step 3 would seem to be off the table till at least the daily case rate drops to say 3 - 9 per today.

Hopefully the recent flattening is just an iterative step. But who knows......

Alternatively if unknown cases do plummet that may cause some re-assessment as well. With lower cases per day it should easier to get a quite low unknown number of cases per day.

 

[drron]

And then there are the downsides of lockdown.

'An overwhelming sense of sadness': Alarm raised over jump in Victorian kids self-harming

Prolonged social isolation and a lack of face-to-face services are being blamed for a concerning increase in the number of young people presenting to emergency departments with self-inflicted injuries.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Lynda2475]

The lack of testing is a real concern, would not be surprised if numbers start ticking upwards in next few weeks. SIgh. I get why people are desperate for things to open up and that may be part of the reason why they choose not to get tested but I just wish they would think about the potential damage they can do to others. Rant over

But if people are feeling well (and have been wearing mask when shopping or on PT) and haven't been to a named venue on the NSW watch list (so not a close or casual contact) why unless working in a high risk workplace would you get tested? If there is less seasonal flu and less covid circulating, fewer people will feel unwell and therefore fewer will get tested.

If unknown community transmission case numbers were high youd expect lots of testing, but as they become rare fewer people would meet criteria to get tested.

Note that even at a low of 8k / day in NSW this is a lot compared to the tiny numbers being tested everywhere else except for Vic which still has material community spread. QLd has only had a handful of testing days > 8k, and i dont think Tas, SA, ACT, NT or WA ever tested that many on one day.

 

[Lynda2475]

- 1 is locally acquired and under investigation

From SMH:

NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant says the case with no known source in today's numbers was a man in his 50s from south-eastern Sydney.

"We're still doing some further diagnostic testing to confirm some elements of that diagnosis, but we are taking precautionary public health action," Dr Chant said.

 

[RooFlyer]

COVID means university tea-rooms aren’t what they used to be! The room has a designated capacity of one

 

[blackcat20]

COVID means university tea-rooms aren’t what they used to be! The room has a designated capacity of one

View attachment 227458
View attachment 227459

We're allowed 9 in ours, but Ive had to cable tie the cupboards shut because "dont use this" doesnt seem to mean much.

 

[drron]

But if people are feeling well (and have been wearing mask when shopping or on PT) and haven't been to a named venue on the NSW watch list (so not a close or casual contact) why unless working in a high risk workplace would you get tested? If there is less seasonal flu and less covid circulating, fewer people will feel unwell and therefore fewer will get tested.

If unknown community transmission case numbers were high youd expect lots of testing, but as they become rare fewer people would meet criteria to get tested.

Note that even at a low of 8k / day in NSW this is a lot compared to the tiny numbers being tested everywhere else except for Vic which still has material community spread. QLd has only had a handful of testing days > 8k, and i dont think Tas, SA, ACT, NT or WA ever tested that many on one day.

But if Tasmania had tested that many per day since the pandemic started they would have tested every Tasmanian 3 times over that period.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Note that even at a low of 8k / day in NSW this is a lot compared to the tiny numbers being tested everywhere else except for Vic which still has material community spread. QLd has only had a handful of testing days > 8k, and i dont think Tas, SA, ACT, NT or WA ever tested that many on one day.

You have to do it per head of population not raw numbers. Our tests today of 435 is pretty comparable to NSW’s 8800 when you compare a population of 400,000 to 8 million. I think the ratios hold pretty true even when NSW had high numbers of tests ACT was doing around 1,300. I agree it’s hard to keep test numbers up if people don’t have symptoms. It’s been 2 months since we had a case in Canberra and with the nicer weather people just aren’t going to have symptoms that worry them to go and get tested.

 

[Lynda2475]

But if Tasmania had tested that many per day since the pandemic started they would have tested every Tasmanian 3 times over that period.

Maybe so, but Queensland's population isnt that much smaller than Victoria's yet much lower numbers (half the test rate). WA has lowest testing rate per head of population.

WA = 384k Tests / 2.639M population = 14%
NT = 41k tests / 244k population = 16%
Tas = 95.5k tets / 537k population = 17%
Qld = 1.025M tests / 5.13M population = 19%
ACT = 87k Test / 427k population = 20%
SA = 424k tests / 1.759M population = 24%
NSW = 2.490k tests / 8.129M population = 30%
Vic = 2.497M tests / 6.651M population = 37%

im not sure how the % tested compares internationally

 

[Flying mermaid]

Now that ACT, NT and SA are in a travel bubble, maybe TAS would like to join us?

 

[Lynda2475]

i notice WA Premier is whinging about burden of hotel quarantine and wanting Commonwealth to open their facilities to take some.

But WA only accepts 525 arrivals per week compared with 2,450 a week in NSW. They have 8 hotels doing quarantine, surely they could secure more, I mean its not like there are any tourist using the hotels and I know there are more than 8 hotels in Perth.

Queensland also needs to lift its game, 500 per week is low, although they prefer to only take AFL and Celebrities.

Interesting that NT, ACT and TAS arent taking any? NZ flights could go to Tas, and Asia flights to NT easily.

 

[dajop]

Interesting that NT, ACT and TAS arent taking any? NZ flights could go to Tas, and Asia flights to NT easily.

NZ flights could instead be managed by a test on arrival and 2 weeks of self isolation. At the very least for arrivals from South Island. We should be focussing the resources on where the risk is the greatest and not applying these broad brush blanket rules to everything.

 

[dajop]

i notice WA Premier is whinging about burden of hotel quarantine and wanting Commonwealth to open their facilities to take some.

But WA only accepts 525 arrivals per week compared with 2,450 a week in NSW. They have 8 hotels doing quarantine, surely they could secure more, I mean its not like there are any tourist using the hotels and I know there are more than 8 hotels in Perth.

It's a bit rich the complaining from WA premier. In The Age, it was indicated that:

West Australian Premier Mark McGowan has called on the federal government to open some of its defence and immigration facilities as nearly 2000 people quarantine in Perth hotels. The state government is due to open another Perth hotel later this week to accommodate the growing numbers of people arriving in WA.

So if they're taking 525 arrivals a week from overseas, that's only 1050 due to international quarantine requirements. The remaining 950 and "the growing numbers" therefore must be due to interstate travellers. Now who controls that number?

 

[Lynda2475]

NZ flights could instead be managed by a test on arrival and 2 weeks of self isolation. At the very least for arrivals from South Island. We should be focussing the resources on where the risk is the greatest and not applying these broad brush blanket rules to everything.

A lot of the passengers arriving from Auckland have just transited the airport there, having flown in from USA, South America or Asia then connecting to a Aus flight - so its not just about New Zealanders. Im not sure there are even flights from south island even operating into Australia at the moment.

 

[dajop]

A lot of the passengers arriving from Auckland have just transited the airport there, having flown in from USA, South America or Asia then connecting to a Aus flight - so its not just about New Zealanders. Im not sure there are even flights from south island even operating into Australia at the moment.

I am sure if restrictions were relaxed, and even the 14 day rule removed, it would be NZ's commercial interest to run dedicated flights without transit pax. Or a great opportunity for JQ or QF, who don't need connecting pax \

Regardless, it needs a more nuanced approach. The current approach can't go on forever.

 

[Lynda2475]

So if they're taking 525 arrivals a week from overseas, that's only 1050 due to international quarantine requirements. The remaining 950 and "the growing numbers" therefore must be due to interstate travellers. Now who controls that number?

They do of course, and they cant justify that for direct flight arrivals from Tas, SA, NT or ACT where there are no community cases.

I laughed when he was emphasizing that WA take the second largest number when it is 1/5 of what NSW take (and NSW also have Victorian arrivals in hotel quarantine), he just wants to reduce costs and deflect attention away from his hard border decision impacting the economy. Im sure all those other empty hotels would be glad of some extra revenue.

Post automatically merged: Sep 15, 2020

Regardless, it needs a more nuanced approach. The current approach can't go on forever.

Agreed - but we need t get our domestic borders open ahead of international. I doubt NZ will enact a bubble until Victorians can travel interstate here.

 

[antycbr]

They do of course, and they cant justify that for direct flight arrivals from Tas, SA, NT or ACT where there are no community cases.

I laughed when he was emphasizing that WA take the second largest number when it is 1/5 of what NSW take (and NSW also have Victorian arrivals in hotel quarantine), he just wants to reduce costs and deflect attention away from his hard border decision impacting the economy. Im sure all those other empty hotels would be glad of some extra revenue.

Post automatically merged: Sep 15, 2020

Agreed - but we need t get our domestic borders open ahead of international. I doubt NZ will enact a bubble until Victorians can travel interstate here.

Absolutely.

If I was the NZ PM I would not wish to negotiate with state governments who will either change their mind or politicise your comments. NZ should focus on agreements with north Asian countries until such time as Australia is behaving as one country again.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Absolutely.

If I was the NZ PM I would not wish to negotiate with state governments who will either change their mind or politicise your comments. NZ should focus on agreements with north Asian countries until such time as Australia is behaving as one country again.

While I understand what you are saying, and why you are saying it, the other issue is that there is a very large "shared" population between Australia and NZ.

There is something like 0.6 million Kiwis in Oz (which is a lot when the population of NZ is 4.9 million) and about 70,000 Aussies in NZ. Add to that Kiwis who have Aussie partners in both countries. So even without travel for leisure and business there is a large number of people that would like to travel between the two countries.

So while it would be useful for New Zealanders to fly elsewhere, it does not assist with that strong Australia-NZ connection and need for interchange.

 

[DC3]

... There is something like 0.6 million Kiwis in Oz (which is a lot when the population of NZ is 4.9 million) and about 70,000 Aussies in NZ. Add to that Kiwis who have Aussie partners in both countries....

And the city with the largest number of Kiwis, outside of Auckland would be Sydney.