Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Victoria not yet getting to the hoped 20s...

Vic has 42 new cases and 8 deaths
Melbourne 49.6 (14-day average) and 81 community transmission over past 14 days
Regional Victoria 3.5 (14 day average) and 1 community transmission over past 14 days.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld has zero cases and 28 active.

 

[Lynda2475]

Qld government taking low blows to keep borders closed by bragging about its death rate:

SMH.com.au reports:

Deputy Premier and Health Minister Steven Miles said the state had recorded “just five cases over the last seven days, which is very promising”.

“While we also see other states, particularly NSW and Victoria, continuing to make progress, sadly more people lost their lives to COVID-19 in Victoria in the last 24 hours than have in the entire year here in Queensland.

“Tragically eight deaths in Victoria in the last 24 hours compared to six in Queensland all up.”

 

[jakeseven7]

Qld government taking low blows to keep borders closed by bragging about its death rate:

SMH.com.au reports:

Deputy Premier and Health Minister Steven Miles said the state had recorded “just five cases over the last seven days, which is very promising”.

“While we also see other states, particularly NSW and Victoria, continuing to make progress, sadly more people lost their lives to COVID-19 in Victoria in the last 24 hours than have in the entire year here in Queensland.

“Tragically eight deaths in Victoria in the last 24 hours compared to six in Queensland all up.”

Absolutely disgusting comment, using the pandemic and leveraging it to get re-elected by trying to scare people.

Please please please ignore anything that comes out of his mouth, he doesn't represent Queenslanders.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Update on Vic Trigger Graphs.


Firstly I will show a new graph of the statewide unknown community spread in the last 14 days.

A point to note that there is actually 48hr lag in the community data to allow for case interviews (and hence contact tracing) to be performed. So the data released to day is not to the 15th, but to the 13th. Whereas new daily case data is to the 15th.

For the Melbourne third step this community spread trigger is the one that is likely to be more difficult trigger to achieve.

The figures today may show a plateauing in unknown community spread and is the first significant flattening for some time (but again any one day's data should always be treated with caution). For the last week the new daily cases have also gone flat (see below).



Graphs on the daily case triggers. Still declining.

While this graph has been flattening, Melbourne's trigger is likely to decline even further tomorrow despite the flattening in numbers over the last week with a larger step down as there was a spike on 3rd Sep, and this will not be in the 14 day average released tomorrow.

However despite this the curve should continue to then flatten due to the last week case figures.






And the raw new cases per day. Disappointingly the cases seem to have plateaued over the last week. However mid-week figures have often spiked up in Melbourne and so hopefully we will from tomorrow we will see a resumption in daily cases declining.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Update on Vic Trigger Graphs.


Firstly I will show a new graph of the statewide unknown community spread in the last 14 days.

A point to note that there is actually 48hr lag in the community data to allow for case interviews (and hence contact tracing) to be performed. So the data released to day is not to the 15th, but to the 13th. Whereas new daily case data is to the 15th.

For the Melbourne third step this community spread trigger is the one that is likely to be more difficult trigger to achieve.

The figures today may show a plateauing in unknown community spread and is the first significant flattening for some time (but again any one day's data should always be treated with caution). For the last week the new daily cases have also gone flat (see below).

View attachment 227477

Graphs on the daily case triggers. Still declining.

While this graph has been flattening, Melbourne's trigger is likely to decline even further tomorrow despite the flattening in numbers over the last week with a larger step down as there was a spike on 3rd Sep, and this will not be in the 14 day average released tomorrow.

However despite this the curve should continue to then flatten due to the last week case figures.


View attachment 227478

View attachment 227479

And the raw new cases per day. Disappointingly the cases seem to have plateaued over the last week. However mid-week figures have often spiked up in Melbourne and so hopefully we will from tomorrow we will see a resumption in daily cases declining.

View attachment 227480

Covid19data states the step 3 goal wrong - Metro goal is less than 5 community transmission state-wide.

Technically regional Victoria’s 0 goal is not relevant as they have decided to open up Step 3 tonight.

Now all they need to do is put in their goal line lol.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think that the other graph worth taking a look at in Victoria is cases under investigation in Victoria.

The reason being of course being that contact tracing became overwhelmed in Victoria and that the contact tracing being overwhelmed is one reason why the restrictions that commenced in August needed to be as strict as they were. So while while new daily cases were ballooning (see below) the ability to investigate them was falling further and further behind. Lack of contact tracing limits the ability to control new cases from becoming large clusters.


We can see that that the cases under investigation is now back under control. The last point on the graph below is 35. Note again that as they allow 48hrs to investigate that there is a delay in releasing the data compared to new daily cases.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Covid19data states the step 3 goal wrong - Metro goal is less than 5 community transmission state-wide.

I was posting the graphs for the data. However the trigger is per graph and the community spread trigger for Melbourne is shown the same as you have quoted.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think that the other graph worth taking a look at in Victoria is cases under investigation in Victoria.

The reason being of course being that contact tracing became overwhelmed in Victoria and that the contact tracing being overwhelmed is one reason why the restrictions that commenced in August needed to be as strict as they were. So while while new daily cases were ballooning (see below) the ability to investigate them was falling further and further behind. Lack of contact tracing limits the ability to control new cases from becoming large clusters.


We can see that that the cases under investigation is now back under control. The last point on the graph below is 35. Note again that as they allow 48hrs to investigate that there is a delay in releasing the data compared to new daily cases.



View attachment 227481


View attachment 227483

The sad thing was the hotspot analysis indicated Vic contact tracing was overwhelmed in late June (thinking 22 June??). Which is a bit lower than now, but obvious without the historical load behind it.

Hopefully all that work on contact tracing improvements is implemented and now fully functional.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The sad thing was the hotspot analysis indicated Vic contact tracing was overwhelmed in late June (thinking 22 June??). Which is a bit lower than now, but obvious without the historical load behind it.

Hopefully all that work on contact tracing improvements is implemented and now fully functional.

Yes late June is when the cough all started to hit the fan. I remember posting then that I was fearful that the controls were coming in a week too late each time.

New cases were in evidence, and were spiralling. Of note then I think is that as genomic testing lags by several cases it will not have been known that the spike in cases was due to new strains and a new and different second eave, rather that the first wave causing the first wave (first wave cases were actually extinguished.

Vic Gov and CHO comments at the time were along the lines of lets wait for another weeks worth of data and then act. So restrictions being brought in kept being a week too late and so cases kept spirally and contact tracing would have become less and less effective.

Since the two new epidemiologists have been appointed the control strategy seems to have changed to more change now and lets see what happens, rather than the June strategy of well lets wait for a weeks data and then act stance. The more proactive strategy may be one reason why they were appointed, or their appointment may have helped to change the philosophy of when to act. We can only speculate.

 

[jb747]

Some people seem to be under the impression that the RAAF just swan around in their aircraft. A bit like an Australia wide aero club. They aren't already paid for, and doing nothing. They have job, and they're doing that.

If you want to move large numbers of people, without the issues of military aircraft clearances, there's a very obvious source of ultra long range aircraft and expertise.

 

[Lynda2475]

Dr Chant just said that 10 cases in NSW today:
* 6 international arrivals
* 4 local acquired all linked to known contacts

From SMH.com.au:

Ten new cases in NSW, all with known sources

NSW has recorded 10 new cases in the latest 24-hour reporting period from more than 20,000 tests, a jump after health authorities expressed concern about declining test numbers.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian told reporters on Wednesday all ten of the cases had known sources: six in hotel quarantine and four from known community clusters. She added that a case reported on Tuesday with no known source had been "ruled out".

"So NSW continues to hold the line, but we do need to be ever vigilant," she said.

Three of the four locally acquired cases were linked to an emergency staff member at Concord Hospital, including a student at Blue Mountains Grammar School reported in the media yesterday and a household contact and close contact of the student.

The school's year 10, 11 and 12 students have moved to online learning for the remainder of term three.

The Premier said it was "pleasing" to see the testing numbers back up, after the state recorded figures below 10,000 tests over the past two days. She encouraged people to not delay getting tested on a weekend.


Im pleased that yesterdays unknown was reclassified, and for those taht were panicking yesterdays testing was back up to 20k for the day.

 

[Lynda2475]

SMH.com.au:

Health alerts for Blue Mountains, Sydney's north and west

NSW Health has issued a number of venue alerts for locations in the Blue Mountains and Sydney, after four new locally acquired coronavirus cases were reported on Wednesday.

Two new cases from the Blue Mountains area attended the Springwood Sports Club on Saturday from 1pm to 2pm while infectious. The pair also attended Lawson Oval on Sunday from 10.30am to 12.45pm.

Anyone who was at either of these venues during these times is considered a "casual contact" of a coronavirus case and should monitor carefully for even the mildest coronavirus symptoms and get tested immediately if they develop. People who were at these venues and need to self-isolate immediately are being contacted by NSW Health.

The same directions have also been issued for three Sydney locations. They are:

• Hunters Hill Bowling Club on Tuesday September 8 from 6.50pm to 9pm
• JB Hi-Fi Penrith Plaza on Sunday from 4pm to 4.30pm
• Anytime Fitness at Casula on Friday from 10.15am to 12pm

NSW Health are contacting all people who attended the Hunters Hill Bowling Club during that time to review their exposure and identify if they should, in fact, self-isolate.


There were Lots of dropouts while listening to today's NSW presser but Gladys certainly landed some zingers on Qld and WA, im liking her more and more, we seem to have the premiere with the most realistic outlook.

Berejiklian agreed to new arrivals cap provided other states 'share the load'

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says she has only agreed to increase the number of international arrivals being processed in her state if other states increase their caps.

Addressing the media earlier this morning, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack revealed NSW has agreed to take an extra 500 Australians each week, with South Australia agreeing to take an extra 360 people and an extra 500 for Western Australia.

He urged Queensland to take an extra 500 people into Cairns or the Gold Coast and said talks are ongoing with Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the ACT.

"Essentially I was given an assurance that the other states were going to take that load," Ms Berejiklian said of a conversation she had with Prime Minister Scott Morrison yesterday.

The Premier said she consulted with her police commissioner before concluding the state could increase its cap.

"I've agreed on the basis that the other states double what they're currently taking: so that would mean that Queensland and WA would have to go from around 500 a week to 1000 a week," she said.

"It would still only be about a third of what NSW was doing, but it certainly means that they'd be sharing the load more."

So as i observed yesterday, the key to getting more Aussies home is for the states to take more oversea arrivals, then the commercial airlines will come to the party with more seats / flights. No need to divert military aircraft form their surveillance duties.

 

[dajop]

Some people seem to be under the impression that the RAAF just swan around in their aircraft. A bit like an Australia wide aero club. They aren't already paid for, and doing nothing. They have job, and they're doing that.

If you want to move large numbers of people, without the issues of military aircraft clearances, there's a very obvious source of ultra long range aircraft and expertise.

Yes, I don't know why people are even talking about calling in RAAF. If you want to move large numbers of people into Australia, you don't really need to do anything on the aircraft side of things, not even the local source of ULR aircraft and expertise. There's aircraft without ~3200 seats arriving in Sydney alone today. Of those seats, no more than 350 will be occupied.

 

[p--and--t]

Yes, I don't know why people are even talking about calling in RAAF. If you want to move large numbers of people into Australia, you don't really need to do anything on the aircraft side of things, not even the local source of ULR aircraft and expertise. There's aircraft without ~3200 seats arriving in Sydney alone today. Of those seats, no more than 350 will be occupied.

I was under the impression for many people "stranded" o/s wasn't the number of empty seats, but that they couldn't afford a $10K airfare.

Then again that could be a chicken and the egg scenario. Cap raised, more arrivals, seat price reduces.

I think Albo wasn't referring to the RAAF generally, he was saying the VIP fleet could be used more effectively and less costly to move a bunch of people from obscure origins not on the main flight paths being serviced into AU.

 

[Lynda2475]

From SMH.com.au (my bolding):

Berejiklian outlines problems with Queensland's 'impossible' benchmark

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has expressed her exasperation with the Queensland border closure, saying if her northern counterpart moves to a 14-day no community transmission threshold for reopening the roads she will just have replaced an "impossible" benchmark with a "highly unlikely" one.

"At this point in time, NSW doesn't have any hotspots," Ms Berejiklian said.

"We have cases which are concerning [and] we have unknown cases in the past that we're trying to chase as well. But if you look at the overall picture and what we're up to, there wouldn't be a reason why those borders should still be in place."

She said the Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's "no community transmission" model was flawed because often – as happened today – a previous case with no known source is found to be a false positive or linked to a cluster days after it is reported. "You don't really want to make decisions based on one case or two cases because often it takes a few days to test the genomics," she said.

The Premier's comments came as she described why she believed Qantas should remain based in NSW, rather than move to Queensland (as has been placed on the table) saying NSW has demonstrated a "culture" of pushing for domestic travel and economic growth. "I hope we've also demonstrated it's not just about what we offer [Qantas], I hope we've also demonstrated by our attitude in dealing with the pandemic that we want no borders; we want open travel between states."

 

[Lynda2475]

I was under the impression for many people "stranded" o/s wasn't the number of empty seats, but that they couldn't afford a $10K airfare. Then again that could be a chicken and the egg scenario. Cap raised, more arrivals, seat price reduces.

This is exactly the the scenario. Because of the low arrivals caps, airlines can generally only sell 30 - 40 seats on their flights, so they are prioritising the premium seats as they need to cover costs and make some money. So if they can sell more seats per flight then they can afford for more of those seats to be economy and therefore more affordable.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes, I don't know why people are even talking about calling in RAAF. If you want to move large numbers of people into Australia, you don't really need to do anything on the aircraft side of things, not even the local source of ULR aircraft and expertise. There's aircraft without ~3200 seats arriving in Sydney alone today. Of those seats, no more than 350 will be occupied.

You can thank the Federal Opposition Leader for the suggestion.

 

[Pete98765432]

From SMH.com.au (my bolding):

Berejiklian outlines problems with Queensland's 'impossible' benchmark

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has expressed her exasperation with the Queensland border closure, saying if her northern counterpart moves to a 14-day no community transmission threshold for reopening the roads she will just have replaced an "impossible" benchmark with a "highly unlikely" one.

"At this point in time, NSW doesn't have any hotspots," Ms Berejiklian said.

"We have cases which are concerning [and] we have unknown cases in the past that we're trying to chase as well. But if you look at the overall picture and what we're up to, there wouldn't be a reason why those borders should still be in place."

She said the Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's "no community transmission" model was flawed because often – as happened today – a previous case with no known source is found to be a false positive or linked to a cluster days after it is reported. "You don't really want to make decisions based on one case or two cases because often it takes a few days to test the genomics," she said.

The Premier's comments came as she described why she believed Qantas should remain based in NSW, rather than move to Queensland (as has been placed on the table) saying NSW has demonstrated a "culture" of pushing for domestic travel and economic growth. "I hope we've also demonstrated it's not just about what we offer [Qantas], I hope we've also demonstrated by our attitude in dealing with the pandemic that we want no borders; we want open travel between states."

The SA Police Commissioner said yesterday:

there would ideally need to be no community transmission in NSW for at least 14 days for SA to relax border restrictions with that state.

Just for balance, shouldn't Gladys also express her exasperation at him?

I know the impact of Qld border closure is more than SA's, but fair is fair.

 

[dajop]

I was under the impression for many people "stranded" o/s wasn't the number of empty seats, but that they couldn't afford a $10K airfare.

Then again that could be a chicken and the egg scenario. Cap raised, more arrivals, seat price reduces.

Could be? Of course, it's just the laws of supply and demand. You cut supply of seats into SYD to just 10 Saab's a day, of course prices are going to go up.