Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[p--and--t]

Just for balance, shouldn't Gladys also express her exasperation at him?

I know the impact of Qld border closure is more than SA's, but fair is fair.

Didn't Dan cover that off a couple of months ago in a statement about SA?

[ Jumping into a bunker awaiting a bombing run from other AFFers]

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW community transmission watch

- 0 in the last 7 days
- 4 in the period 8-14 days
- 9 in the period 15-28 days.

So I guess 7 days more to meet the requirement of nil community transmission (mystery case) for border openings (excluding Qld which stated today (I think) they review at the end of the month)

 

[jakeseven7]

From SMH.com.au (my bolding):

Berejiklian outlines problems with Queensland's 'impossible' benchmark

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has expressed her exasperation with the Queensland border closure, saying if her northern counterpart moves to a 14-day no community transmission threshold for reopening the roads she will just have replaced an "impossible" benchmark with a "highly unlikely" one.

"At this point in time, NSW doesn't have any hotspots," Ms Berejiklian said.

"We have cases which are concerning [and] we have unknown cases in the past that we're trying to chase as well. But if you look at the overall picture and what we're up to, there wouldn't be a reason why those borders should still be in place."

She said the Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's "no community transmission" model was flawed because often – as happened today – a previous case with no known source is found to be a false positive or linked to a cluster days after it is reported. "You don't really want to make decisions based on one case or two cases because often it takes a few days to test the genomics," she said.

The Premier's comments came as she described why she believed Qantas should remain based in NSW, rather than move to Queensland (as has been placed on the table) saying NSW has demonstrated a "culture" of pushing for domestic travel and economic growth. "I hope we've also demonstrated it's not just about what we offer [Qantas], I hope we've also demonstrated by our attitude in dealing with the pandemic that we want no borders; we want open travel between states."

Slap, slap, slap ouch!

 

[Lynda2475]

Just for balance, shouldn't Gladys also express her exasperation at him?

Well the question asked was specifically about Queensland, I was listening to the full presser. But Queensland border closure has much bigger impact to economy as much more movement betwenn NSW and Qld than NSW and SA. Gladys has said no state borders should be closed to NSW.

I suspect once the national hotspot definition is agreed SA will fall into line before Queensland does, given they have taken a first step to reopening to ACT direct flights. Not sure why SA is now wanting to use the Queensland definition, when the previous criteria was different. ALso it wont be up to the SA Police to decide but the SA premier.

Politics aside slamming borders shut when there is one case, without waiting to see if that case is a false positive or linked to known cluster is no way to run a state/country - we will be living with this virus for years, we need to work on workable definitions, which give businesses and individuals some certainty to plan, and allow Aussies to see their interstate family members when management of cases is being effective.

Vic border was only domestic border that needed to close and they shouldn't have to get to zero for it to reopen, which is why NSW is relaxing more regional border bubbles with Vic now that their numbers have improved.

NSW will be the first to reopen to Vic as a whole of that I am sure.

Gladys' language around international arrivals this morning was careful to talk about Australians and how NSW taking lions share was helping reunite Australians from all states,. Unlike AP who believes Queensland is its own country. The most effective way to force other states to take their fair share and open borders to NSW would be for NSW to stop accepting international arrivals into SYD of non NSW residents - but Gladys is not heartless, she sees a bigger picture than WA, Qld, SA, NT and Tas do atm.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well the question asked was specifically about Queensland, I was listening to the full presser. But Queensland border closure has much bigger impact to economy as much more movement betwenn NSW and Qld than NSW and SA. Gladys has said no state borders should be closed to NSW.

I suspect once the national hotspot definition is agreed SA will fall into line before Queensland does, given they have taken a first step to reopening to ACT direct flights. Not sure why SA is now wanting to use the Queensland definition, when the previous criteria was different. ALso it wont be up to the SA Police to decide but the SA premier.

Politics aside slamming borders shut when there is one case, without waiting to see if that case is a false positive or linked to known cluster is no way to run a state/country - we will be living with this virus for years, we need to work on workable definitions, which give businesses and individuals some certainty to plan, and allow Aussies to see their interstate family members when management of cases is being effective.

Vic border was only domestic border that needed to close and they shouldn't have to get to zero for it to reopen, which is why NSW is relaxing more regional border bubbles with Vic now that their numbers have improved.

NSW will be the first to reopen to Vic as a whole of that I am sure.

I think some premiers are struggling with the fact that even with a vaccine at some point in the future, we are going to have unknown cases, spread of the virus in Australia and yes unfortunately ongoing fatalities because the vaccine will not be 100% effective. What are they going to do then? Wait for a 100% effective vaccine?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well the question asked was specifically about Queensland, I was listening to the full presser. But Queensland border closure has much bigger impact to economy as much more movement betwenn NSW and Qld than NSW and SA. Gladys has said no state borders should be closed to NSW.

I suspect once the national hotspot definition is agreed SA will fall into line before Queensland does, given they have taken a first step to reopening to ACT direct flights. Not sure why SA is now wanting to use the Queensland definition, when the previous criteria was different. ALso it wont be up to the SA Police to decide but the SA premier.

Politics aside slamming borders shut when there is one case, without waiting to see if that case is a false positive or linked to known cluster is no way to run a state/country - we will be living with this virus for years, we need to work on workable definitions, which give businesses and individuals some certainty to plan, and allow Aussies to see their interstate family members when management of cases is being effective.

Vic border was only domestic border that needed to close and they shouldn't have to get to zero for it to reopen, which is why NSW is relaxing more regional border bubbles with Vic now that their numbers have improved.

NSW will be the first to reopen to Vic as a whole of that I am sure.

Apparently, the SA Police Commissioner was the decision maker yesterday to keep quarantine requirements for the SA-NSW border.

Also mathematically using historical information, the hotspot rule (metro 30 new cases in 3 days) may only give two days notice.

 

[jakeseven7]

Apparently, the SA Police Commissioner was the decision maker yesterday to keep quarantine requirements for the SA-NSW border.

That makes sense, which university did he get his medical/scientific degree from again?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

That makes sense, which university did he get his medical/scientific degree from again?

Apparently the school of emergency management....

 

[Pushka]

Apparently, the SA Police Commissioner was the decision maker yesterday to keep quarantine requirements for the SA-NSW border.

Indeed. He is running the state not the Premier . His advice should be heeded but he shouldn’t get to make the decision.

 

[ajw373]

NSW community transmission watch

- 0 in the last 7 days
- 4 in the period 8-14 days
- 9 in the period 15-28 days.

So I guess 7 days more to meet the requirement of nil community transmission (mystery case) for border openings (excluding Qld which stated today (I think) they review at the end of the month)

I thought the definition of community transmission also included transmission from known sources. So basically anything that isn't 'imported' from interstate or from overseas.

 

[oznflfan]

Apparently, the SA Police Commissioner was the decision maker yesterday to keep quarantine requirements for the SA-NSW border.

Also mathematically using historical information, the hotspot rule (metro 30 new cases in 3 days) may only give two days notice.

My maths is different, if I get on a plane in for example Adelaide and fly to Melbourne, trip maybe 1.5 hours?? Could be Dan Andrews press conference whilst I am in the air announcing 31 cases and Melbourne now a hotspot. I could get off the plane in said Melbourne, buy a new ticket immediately at the airport on the next available flight say 1 hour later, then upon landing back in Adelaide be herded into a 14 day government imposed quarantine on arrival back home with a $3,000 fee?

How can anyone, at all, ever, fly interstate on visit/work/holiday without threat of possible immediate home state detention?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I thought the definition of community transmission also included transmission from known sources. So basically anything that isn't 'imported' from interstate or from overseas.

Community transmission is the unknown source cases or as the Vic Premier first coined ‘mystery cases’

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

My maths is different, if I get on a plane in for example Adelaide and fly to Melbourne, trip maybe 1.5 hours?? Could be Dan Andrews press conference whilst I am in the air announcing 31 cases and Melbourne now a hotspot. I could get off the plane in said Melbourne, buy a new ticket immediately at the airport on the next available flight say 1 hour later, then upon landing back in Adelaide be herded into a 14 day government imposed quarantine on arrival back home with a $3,000 fee?

How can anyone, at all, ever, fly interstate on visit/work/holiday without threat of possible immediate home state detention?

Theoretically possible, but historically no outbreak in Australia so far has occurred with 31 cases on the first day.

Yes, it’s a dog’s breakfast. Hopefully your home state is not SA or WA, which have had instances of not allowing residents back.

 

[dajop]

Community transmission is the unknown source cases or as the Vic Premier first coined ‘mystery cases’

Mystery cases is a much clearer descriptor. If you go back to basic English, "community transmission" seems at best to have a degree of ambiguity, at worst be more encompassing, after all if there is transmission between Jack and Jill whilst they are climbing the hill together, is that transmission not occuring within the community?

 

[woodborer]

I thought the definition of community transmission also included transmission from known sources. So basically anything that isn't 'imported' from interstate or from overseas.

That's 'locally acquired'.

Locally acquired: cases that were acquired in Australia

Local Transmission: cases where the source of infections was in the reporting area (i.e local and known)
Community transmission: cases that were acquired in Australia and the source of the infection hasn't been found

Post automatically merged: Sep 16, 2020

Mystery cases is a much clearer descriptor. If you go back to basic English, "community transmission" seems at best to have a degree of ambiguity, at worst be more encompassing, after all if there is transmission between Jack and Jill whilst they are climbing the hill together, is that transmission not occuring within the community?

Like a lot of things in a lot of industries, the terms have quite specific meanings.

 

[jase05]

Indeed. He is running the state not the Premier . His advice should be heeded but he shouldn’t get to make the decision.

Unfortunately under the State of Emergency Act the Police Commissioner overrides the Premier and I cant see that changing anytime soon.
It’s set to expire on the Sept 19th but I’d expect it be extended again.
Marshall is fed up with it but he is stuck in the middle currently. Hopefully he applies the blowtorch to Stevens

 

[dajop]

Like a lot of things in a lot of industries, the terms have quite specific meanings.

Yes, but when communicating to the masses, it's best to avoid jargon that could be interpreted ambiguously. That's why I think phrases like "mystery cases" are good - it's less ambiguous.

 

[Lynda2475]

ndeed. He is running the state not the Premier

The differences between the way states of emergency work in different states is astounding. Queensland claim its the CHO call, SA allowing the police to make the key decisions, NSW it is the premier (based on health advice), WA premier (admitting against his CHO health advice) to name a few difference.

 

[Seat0B]

My maths is different, if I get on a plane in for example Adelaide and fly to Melbourne, trip maybe 1.5 hours?? Could be Dan Andrews press conference whilst I am in the air announcing 31 cases and Melbourne now a hotspot. I could get off the plane in said Melbourne, buy a new ticket immediately at the airport on the next available flight say 1 hour later, then upon landing back in Adelaide be herded into a 14 day government imposed quarantine on arrival back home with a $3,000 fee?

How can anyone, at all, ever, fly interstate on visit/work/holiday without threat of possible immediate home state detention?

This type of thing actually happened to my sister en route from ACT to Darwin via Brisbane a while ago. it has certainly scared me off making any travel plans, including for work as the cost of quarantine is a massive disincentive - as is the quarantine itself, but to a lesser degree than teh cost. If I went interstate for work, and I do have a keen client in SA, and ended up having to pay for quarantine on return due to a sudden outbreak, then I would make a net loss on the trip. Not sustainable. Not enticing. Not happening.

 

[Lynda2475]

Brisbane Times is reporting:

In a letter sent to all premiers and chief ministers, seen by Brisbane Times, the nation's health panel has outlined its proposed definition for a COVID-19 hotspot ahead of national cabinet on Friday.

The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, a panel made up of all state and territory chief health officers and chaired by the national Chief Medical Officer, will have the power to declare hotspots.

The panel has set out three proposed definitions for COVID-free, controlled and community transmission zones.

A COVID-free zone would be an “area that has no locally acquired cases that pose a risk to the community in the previous 28 days”.

A controlled zone is an area with locally acquired cases in the previous 28 days, but where authorities have been able to trace how someone contracted the virus.

A community transmission zone, known as a hotspot, will be determined by the AHPPC rather than individual states. “It is an area where the disease is spreading in the community and cases are acquired locally but the source of infection for a proportion of cases in the previous 28 days is not clear.” The committee made it clear that its declaration of a hotspot would not “trigger or preclude specific actions for state and territories to take”.

It has not specified if an "area" would constitute a postcode, local government area or an entire state or territory.

The release of the definition comes after Brisbane Times revealed Queensland was considering relaxing the rule from 28 days down to 14 days. That move would have had to be agreed to by health officers in other states and territories.

The problem I see is that 1 mystery case would trigger the "community transmission zone / hotspot" declaration which then may trigger premiers to close borders but it may be change to controlled zone 24 hours later as contract tracing takes 24-48 hours. There would have to be a mandatory lag of 48-72 hours from a community transmission case to declaration to allow contract tracing to play our or people will be stranded or unable to plan.