Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

But the one non hotel quarantine case yesterday was a historic case i.e. the person had antibodies showing infection 8 weeks ago, and is no longer contagious. Genomic testing takes longer than 48 hours so they wont be able to link it by tomorrow, but since its an old case added tgo reporting and not some new mystery case acquired within the last incubation period, it shouldn't be a trigger for setting the counter. We should be currently at 6 days.

Why are you trying to argue QLD's logic? Don't bother. It changes constantly.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

But the one non hotel quarantine case yesterday was a historic case i.e. the person had antibodies showing infection 8 weeks ago, and is no longer contagious. Genomic testing takes longer than 48 hours so they wont be able to link it by tomorrow, but since its an old case added tgo reporting and not some new mystery case acquired within the last incubation period, it shouldn't be a trigger for setting the counter. We should be currently at 6 days.

Qld will open the Qld/NSW border on 1/11, provided 28 day of no mystery cases. 28 days prior starts tomorrow.

Qld CHO claims there is a nationally agreed principle of 48 hours to link a case to a known case or cluster. First I heard of it was yesterday or the day before, hence my calling it the silent rule - it’s not stated as part of the 28 days of no mystery cases (but probably exists as part of the measure).

So they have practically resetted the clock - the last 6 days of no mystery cases no longer matter.

 

[antycbr]

Qld will open the Qld/NSW border on 1/11, provided 28 day of no mystery cases. 28 days prior starts tomorrow.

Qld CHO claims there is a nationally agreed principle of 48 hours to link a case to a known source or cluster. First I heard of it was yesterday or the day before, hence my calling it the silent rule - it’s not stated as part of the 28 days of no mystery cases (but probably exists as part of the measure)

Would be nice if this "principle" document was published?

Perhaps someone at The Australian or similar can FOI the whole lot around the country.

They truly are making it up as they go along.

I expect one of the first actions of an elected Queensland LNP will be the "retirement" of Dr Young.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well they were very clear that there was no way that step 3 would happen before the 19th as they wanted a full 3 weeks after the easing that was announced on Sunday. They felt that was the minimum needed to fully assess the impact,

The caveat of "At least a three-week gap between changes " I think is a prudent one as:

I think it is not just to fully assess the impact of changes (ie have they allowed cases to jump by allowing more possible transmission opportunities) but also in case there is another as yet unknown outbreak brewing.

• It recognises the 14 day incubation period,
• Includes a buffer just in case a new outbreak is started with asymptomatic spreaders

the question is more whether they will ease even if the 14 day rolling average is above 5 and I will believe they will as long as mystery cases are around the 5. The rolling day average, if you take out the cases in care, is already under 5 so we are just waiting on mystery cases to come down and then the 19th will see step 3.

While true, recent case history would suggest that an average of 5 new cases per day (= 70 in 14 days) is not a tight a measure as the mystery cases as that has been around 10% (For the most recent 14 day trigger period it was 9%). So for mystery cases to be less than 5 (which would mean 4 or less) new cases in a week would be around 40 (ie an average of about 3 per day).

Now take those numbers with a huge grain of salt (ie witness today's large 5 day drop in mystery case trigger), as with the lower numbers things can easily bounce around. And remember too that at present there will be more infected people than the actual cases die to some people being asymptomatic, and others potentially not getting tested (or at least getting tested as quickly as they should).

 

[jakeseven7]

Qld will open the Qld/NSW border on 1/11, provided 28 day of no mystery cases. 28 days prior starts tomorrow.

Qld CHO claims there is a nationally agreed principle of 48 hours to link a case to a known case or cluster. First I heard of it was yesterday or the day before, hence my calling it the silent rule - it’s not stated as part of the 28 days of no mystery cases (but probably exists as part of the measure).

So they have practically resetted the clock - the last 6 days of no mystery cases no longer matter.

Yes which is the whole issue, they have now reset their clock with new rules that no one knew about - twice.

So actually, NSW if you have any mystery cases quickly get them in right now because your NEW border clock is actually only operational from tomorrow! Any cases up until tomorrow don't even matter.

What a joke.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Would be nice if this "principle" document was published?

Perhaps someone at The Australian or similar can FOI the whole lot around the country.

They truly are making it up as they go along.

I expect one of the first actions of an elected Queensland LNP will be the "retirement" of Dr Young.

I guess this principle was within the hotspot definition somewhere, but given it’s not even agreed and was to do with all locally acquired cases and not just mystery cases......who know? It’s a good question if AHPPC working papers and/or National Cabinet decisions are FOI-able.

 

[antycbr]

I guess this principle was within the hotspot definition somewhere, but given it’s not even agreed and was to do with all locally acquired cases and not just mystery cases......who know? It’s a good question if AHPPC working papers and/or National Cabinet decisions are FOI-able.

Senator Rex Patrick is trying to get National Cabinet papers right now and is being told NO pretty consistently.

National cabinet has been a grave mistake.

Queensland also refused to sign up to the hotspot definition if I recall correctly, they have also refused the agriculture code.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

For the seventh day in a row, NSW has not reported a single recent case of locally transmitted #COVID19. Four cases of returned travellers in hotel quarantine were diagnosed in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. Three were acquired overseas, and one in Victoria.

courtesy NSW Health Twitter

 

[DC3]

... National cabinet has been a grave mistake ...

Well, we can agree on that.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW mystery case watch......

weirdly a new case appeared today

- 2 in the last 14 days
- 2 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since Crossroads.

hopefully just the Victorian case or some typo or a case that was linked is now unlinked???

 

[jakeseven7]

I expect one of the first actions of an elected Queensland LNP will be the "retirement" of Dr Young.

Good luck to them, the department has apparently been trying for years to get rid of her is the talk amongst the medical community up here.
Its not even a political thing....

 

[DC3]

... I expect one of the first actions of an elected Queensland LNP will be the "retirement" of Dr Young.

Yes, but who wants to wait for 20 years, or more?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Test numbers at a good level again.

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW mystery case watch......

weirdly a new case appeared today

- 2 in the last 14 days
- 2 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since Crossroads.

hopefully just the Victorian case or some typo or a case that was linked is now unlinked???

Doesn't matter for the purposes of QLD border opening to let NSW in - border clock is not operational today its out of range

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Doesn't matter for the purposes of QLD border opening to let NSW in - border clock is not operational today its out of range

Yes I realise....I’m getting practice in.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Let 2 October 2020 (2/10/202) be known as practice day....for meeting requirements relating to removing the Qld/NSW border restriction and getting to Step 3 Melbourne metrics.......feels like that kind of day.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Like I've said a number of times here - that's the virtue of getting your media from a variety of sources and perspectives. For instance, (speaking generally) a diet of the ABC, the Guardian and Nine (formerly Fairfax) media will usually skew one's perspective.

Fully agree. My 11th Form Physics Teacher drove home the importance of checking facts. And more so when one looks at any USA news there as the media is so clearly focussed on its demographic.

Normally if I see a story that interest me I will google and see what others are also reporting. If "facts" are mentioned or alluded to I will often fact check them.

With these recent stories i the first batch, the initial most salient point for me as I said earlier is was there an infection link between the workers and those in quarantine? As sufficient time had elapsed for genomic sequencing to have occurred I said then that I presumed their was no genomic link based on the statements from officials in the reports that staff had been infected outside of the workplace . Many journalists were more taking the tack that it was a quarantine leak, just because they worked there. This all being at the height of the second wave when many workplaces including hospitals had staff infected.

Today's presser has clarified with much greater detail that the infection links, including genomic sequencing, have all been found to not be linked to any guests and to have been linked to non-guests in all cases where a link was achievable.


With the second batch of articles the salient point for me was concerns over PPE adherence, and other practices, and that casual CSO staff were still being used. This remains a concern to me. The positive however is that an intervention was made immediately when a complaint was received (irrespective of whether that complaint was valid or not).

 

[dajop]

Many journalists were more taking the tack that it was a quarantine leak, just because they worked there. This all being at the height of the second wave when many workplaces including hospitals had staff infected.

Many of the journalists seem to go down rabbit holes. A good point was made that these "hotel quarantines" are operating more like hospitals (for the well), so operating much more like a health care facility than the returned travellers hotel quarantine. Yet no-one seems to be probing the hospital lapses quite to the same extent.

(Another example on the weekend after Jenny Mikakos resigned, they went down the rabbit hole of grilling the Premier on whether he had spoken to her before she resigned. Maybe I've watched too much political satire, such as Yes Prime Minister etc, but I would have thought the obvious answer would be no - any conversation would have taken place via advisor-advisor or party whips or the like).

 

[DC3]

A good point was made that these "hotel quarantines" are operating more like hospitals (for the well) ...

Yes. A gaol hospital.

 

[Lynda2475]

weirdly a new case appeared today

We know about both these cases, although as stated earlier the 2nd one should not be a trigger to reset the clock with Queensland

One was the case from last week which has been linked to Liverpool Hospital cluster by genomic testing and fact that person had attended Liverpool Hospital - although they haven't identified the exact person he came into contact with.

The second was yesterdays historic case, where another male in his 50s also from south west Sydney was shown to have covid-19 antibodies at a level to suggest infection approx 8 weeks ago. No longer infectious, but counted in yesterdays stats. Im sure they are contact tracing but since he is well past the infectious stage and it was so long ago doubtful they will easily find the direct chain of transmission (or if there is value in looking, given he was active in a LGA with active community transmission 2 months ago).