Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[antycbr]

A national system would be even better as state borders open up....

NZ has this in place already, showing the benefits of a unitary state.

 

[Lynda2475]

A national system would be even better as state borders open up

Agreed, why don't they reprogram covid live to be a QR app and ask people to check in and out everywhere they go (think supermarkets / shopping centres should have codes too, as been some transmission there recently).

When I was in Byron the QR system most restaurants used there required you to check in and out. The QR app most places in Sydney are using only requires you check-in and assumes you leave within 45 mins (which is probably ok for a cafe, but too short for other venues).

 

[jb747]

A national system would be even better as state borders open up....

Like that other app that doesn't work?

 

[RooFlyer]

A Tas study:

A NEW study of North West healthcare staff who tested positive and negative to the coronavirus has revealed interesting results on their immune responses to the disease.

The 262 staff from North West Regional and Private Hospitals undertook blood tests for the public health study.

Results found six respondents who had not been diagnosed with the disease were presenting COVID-19 antibodies in their blood.

Public Health said those six people will not be tacked onto the state tally of confirmed cases, which currently stands at 230.

The decision was made because coronavirus had not been detected among the six participants during an illness.

Conversely, some study respondents who had tested positive to coronavirus did not have antibodies three month after their infections.

The finding is in line with other similar global studies which suggest antibody levels can plummet quickly after infection, leaving some people vulnerable to the disease.

 

[Pushka]

A Tas study:

A NEW study of North West healthcare staff who tested positive and negative to the coronavirus has revealed interesting results on their immune responses to the disease.

The 262 staff from North West Regional and Private Hospitals undertook blood tests for the public health study.

Results found six respondents who had not been diagnosed with the disease were presenting COVID-19 antibodies in their blood.

Public Health said those six people will not be tacked onto the state tally of confirmed cases, which currently stands at 230.

The decision was made because coronavirus had not been detected among the six participants during an illness.

Conversely, some study respondents who had tested positive to coronavirus did not have antibodies three month after their infections.

The finding is in line with other similar global studies which suggest antibody levels can plummet quickly after infection, leaving some people vulnerable to the disease.

My nephew rarely develops antibodies after routine immunisations. He was required to undergo all the usual childhood ones when he entered ADFA as he showed no level of protection from them. He also was the one who developed swine flu back in 2009. He is currently serving Covid assignment in WA once he completes his mandatory 14 day isolation even though he flew from Adelaide.

 

[jakeseven7]

Rolling average drops again.

 

[flyingfan]

It's good it's dropping - I'm really hoping and praying we get single figures next and the double digits end...

 

[moa999]

Agreed, why don't they reprogram covid live to be a QR app and ask people to check in and out everywhere they go (think supermarkets / shopping centres should have codes too,

Would also mean more people are actually using the covid app which would improve the Bluetooth functionality

 

[33kft]

Sadly it's far too shallow of a reduction to result in much real easing on the 19th

 

[jakeseven7]

Sadly it's far too shallow of a reduction to result in much real easing on the 19th

I tend to agree, but the mystery cases is what they are most interested in, not the absolute number - and that has come crashing down, spectacularly actually but will probably not meet the 5 over 2 week target regardless.

 

[jb747]

Would also mean more people are actually using the covid app which would improve the Bluetooth functionality

I still don't understand why they refuse to rewrite the app for the API that is now contained in the Apple and Android systems. If they were actually serious, they'd be using every tool at their disposal.

 

[moa999]

At only 30% download (and that's high versus the rest of the world) it still wouldnt be particularly useful.

But the main reason for not using the G/A API is we thankfully have low enough infection rates that we can still use contact tracing.
The G/A app provides no statistics to government, no ability to follow people up to confirm that they have been tested or are isolating.

And as we've seen unfortunately a lot of people can't be trusted to follow directions.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I tend to agree, but the mystery cases is what they are most interested in, not the absolute number - and that has come crashing down, spectacularly actually but will probably not meet the 5 over 2 week target regardless.

Yes the Vic Gov is probably wishing that they had not mentioned the 19 Oct date now and had just stuck to the original script of late Oct with the chance of earlier if numbers were met.

We got in front of the model, but have of late reverted back more to the original timelines.

However with numbers so low it is easy for things now rapidly change for better or worse due the actions of just a few people.


The CHO was tweeting the mystery cases per day, but has currently stopped.

So we can add a 2 to the sequence below.

Now as today was meant to drop by 3 today on the rolling 14 day period, but has gone down to from 14 to 12. That would seem to suggest that there is 1 new mystery case today.

If so depending on exactly what the 14 day period is for the trigger (remember there is a 48 hr lag) that we are now at 4 o3 mystery cases when the target is less than 5.

Having said that if we stop having mystery cases the trigger is going to rapidly drop. We might still meet it on 19 Oct, though looking at the trend of the last 7 days that would seem unlikely. By end of October it does look likely though.

If no new mystery cases over the next two days the trigger would drop by 5 from 12 to 7.

 

[Lynda2475]

SMH.com.au reports:

NSW has recorded 10 new coronavirus cases in the latest 24-hour reporting period: five in the community and five in hotel quarantine.

Of the five local cases, all have known sources, Premier Gladys Berejiklian said.

Four are linked to the Liverpool private health clinic which connected three of yesterday's cases. This cluster is not yet linked to an existing cluster. The Premier said three of the new cases today were household contacts. She added that these cases were spread across a wide range of Sydney suburbs, indicative of the venue alerts issued by NSW Health yesterday.

The remaining local case is believed to be an "old" case, understood to be connected to the Liverpool Hospital cluster.

"[It] was most likely acquired the virus was circulating in low levels in south-west Sydney around August," Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said.
NSW recorded 12,868 cases in the reporting period, a result Ms Berejiklian said she was pleased about.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

- 5 cases were diagnosed in returned travellers in hotel quarantine
- 5 cases were locally acquired and linked to a known case or cluster

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well in Vic some positive milstones achieved today with:

• Active cases now under 200 (195).
• Aged Care under 50 (45)
• and healthworkers under 20 (19)

 

[jakeseven7]

Great to see VIC active cases below 200, hospital cases so low (almost at NSW levels now).

Good to hear from the CHO that the massive number of contract tracers have all been retained despite such low case numbers and they have just been pivoted to driving community engagement and driving testing while they *wait* for any more cases (that hopefully don't arrive!).

 

[33kft]

I tend to agree, but the mystery cases is what they are most interested in, not the absolute number - and that has come crashing down, spectacularly actually but will probably not meet the 5 over 2 week target regardless.

There's been nothing particularly promising about this indicator for the last week.

 

[jakeseven7]

There's been nothing particularly promising about this indicator for the last week.

View attachment 229823

Sure, suggest you have a listen to the briefing today from the CHO who went into the detail behind the mystery case numbers. It explains his view on them.