Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

I was changing channels and as I was going past 9 saw this on a Current Affair.
Any Queenslander watching that story who still believes the QLD CHO knows what she is doing and is a compassionate person are themselves not compassionate people.Told his brain cancer was inoperable in QLD so got an operation in Sydney.Won't cure him but with chemotherapy may well give him longer and a better quality of life.To force him into hotel quarantine then tell him to arrange an Uber to take himself to chemotherapy with the Uber windows down plus no way could he meet his wife.That is cruelty.

Now Tasmania has had a worse border policy than QLD but when they give a compassionate exemption it really is compassionate.Back before June people would have to go into hotel quarantine but every day escorted to hospital for an hour at a time.
Now they are allowed to isolate in a family home.Today reached a new level when a fellow from Melbourne has been granted permission to come and isolate in his mother's home.she is 98 and dying and lived by herself.She desperately wanted to die at home so now has been granted her wish.That is how it should be done.

So thankfully there is a good news update on this decision made by QLD Health / Dr Young.

Due to public pressure they have been forced to change their decision and this poor guy and his partner will be allowed to isolate at home

How this sloppy first 'NO' decision was made (again....) in the first place is really concerning, given they claimed they had fixed all the errors that Dr Young was making in respect to her process for not approving these compassionate claims in a timely and compassionate manner. Back to the drawing board clearly for that process....

Maybe she should be spending less time on her border wars with NSW and more time on processing these claims with more care...

So @drron some QLD's can be compassionate

----

Brain cancer patient now allowed home to Queensland after case exposed, public push

A man who underwent a brain cancer operation in NSW will now be permitted to quarantine at his home in Brisbane, instead of a medical hotel, after the Queensland chief health officer Jeannette Young was forced into organising another assessment with a senior doctor overnight

Gary Ralph and his wife Wendy Child travelled to Sydney for the operation, but when they returned, Queensland Health denied him an exemption to isolate at home and instead required the couple to stay in a medi-hotel.

Their plight drew heavy criticism from politicians, as have other cases in Queensland's controversial border requirements.

POLL CALL: No new taxes promise as border stoush rubbished

Labor and the LNP are both in Townsville to start day four of the campaign, while it is D-Day for NSW contact tracers to find the source of recent cases to enable a border reopening.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

 

[33kft]

Sure, suggest you have a listen to the briefing today from the CHO who went into the detail behind the mystery case numbers. It explains his view on them.

Thanks for the advice

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There's been nothing particularly promising about this indicator for the last week.

View attachment 229823

As per my post earlier today the 14 rolling figure over the next two days will drop by 5 minus any new cases announced over the next 2 days (ie the 48 hrs lagged mystery cases per day.

So = 12 -5+ X (Mystery cases announced for the next 2 days)

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes the Vic Gov is probably wishing that they had not mentioned the 19 Oct date now and had just stuck to the original script of late Oct with the chance of earlier if numbers were met.

We got in front of the model, but have of late reverted back more to the original timelines.

However with numbers so low it is easy for things now rapidly change for better or worse due the actions of just a few people.


The CHO was tweeting the mystery cases per day, but has currently stopped.

So we can add a 2 to the sequence below.

Now as today was meant to drop by 3 today on the rolling 14 day period, but has gone down to from 14 to 12. That would seem to suggest that there is 1 new mystery case today.

If so depending on exactly what the 14 day period is for the trigger (remember there is a 48 hr lag) that we are now at 4 o3 mystery cases when the target is less than 5.

Having said that if we stop having mystery cases the trigger is going to rapidly drop. We might still meet it on 19 Oct, though looking at the trend of the last 7 days that would seem unlikely. By end of October it does look likely though.

If no new mystery cases over the next two days the trigger would drop by 5 from 12 to 7.

View attachment 229812


View attachment 229813

The daily report on mystery cases is now out. Well not quite daily as had not been reported for 2 days

As predicted there was one Mystery Case in the figures announced today. As also mention cases will reduce by 5 (3, 2) over the next two days if there are no new mystery cases..
.
So if trigger period is 4th-17th inclusive for decision on the 19th on the Sunday then we stand at 3 mystery cases. Needs to be less than 5. If they decide on the Sunday then we stand at 4.

 

[jakeseven7]

Great news
---
Mildura case confirmed as a false positive

A COVID-19 case in regional Victoria's north-west has been confirmed as a false positive by health authorities.

The case in Mildura which was reported on Thursday has now been confirmed as a false positive, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

The case will be removed from regional cases totals tomorrow, leaving just four active cases across regional Victoria, all of which are in Mitchell Shire.

As it happened: Victoria records 11 new COVID-19 cases as Berejiklian, Palaszczuk trade barbs over Qld border closure; Australian death toll stands at 897

The World Health Organisation has reported a record one-day increase in global coronavirus cases on Thursday, with infections rising by 338,779 in 24 hours. Follow our live coverage here.

www.smh.com.au

 

[dajop]

Great news
---
Mildura case confirmed as a false positive

Excellent news! So cases still confined to Melbourne + Kilmore (which is only 30km or so from the edge of Melbourne metro area).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The daily report on mystery cases is now out. Well not quite daily as had not been reported for 2 days

As predicted there was one Mystery Case in the figures announced today. As also mention cases will reduce by 5 (3, 2) over the next two days if there are no new mystery cases..
.
So if trigger period is 4th-17th inclusive for decision on the 19th on the Sunday then we stand at 3 mystery cases. Needs to be less than 5. If they decide on the Sunday then we stand at 4.

View attachment 229853

Just a small matter to raise

Today is the 9/10 and the mystery cases are 21/9-6/10

Then the two possible decision dates are
18/10 covering the mystery case period 2/10-15/10 which already has 5
19/10 covering the mystery case period 3/10-16/10 which already has 4.

Also likewise for new cases (less than 70 over 14 days):
18/10 will cover cases from 4/10 which is currently 44 (minus 1 for Mildura) with 9 days to go.
19/10 will cover cases from 5/10 which is 36 (-1) with 10 days to go.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW mystery case watch

After the ‘disaster‘ outbreak recently, thought to wait and see and it’s not promising:

Today’s reports indicate:
- 5 in the past 7 days
- 1 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 30 older than 28 days but since Crossroads emerging.

PS new venues and some more dates and time to existing named venues as per tonight’s public health alerts.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

'This could fail': Disturbing number of Covid cases in Victoria going undetected

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has warned the state's public health response 'could fail' if residents become complacent.

au.yahoo.com

Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has said about 30 per cent of the state’s coronavirus cases could be going undetected.

The state recorded 11 new cases on Friday, the same total as Thursday, providing further frustration for health authorities as the tail end of the second wave continues to prove difficult to quash.

Professor Sutton once again faced tough questioning from reporters over how effective the state’s stringent lockdown measures and contact tracing system are.

While he said he had confidence in the public health response, Prof Sutton said he feared cases were continuing to go undetected.

CHO Brett Sutton says about 30 per cent of cases in Victoria could be going undetected. Source: AAP
While he said it was “hard to know” exactly how many, he feared nearly one third of all cases were missed daily.

“But we do know that when we have got an increased testing volume, so instead of 9000 we have got 16,000 or 20,000, that more confirmed cases are identified,” he said.

“That to me tells me that there are probably 30 per cent or thereabouts that we are not finding on any one day.”

—-

Using info from covidlive (not saying figure are 100% accurate), it seems the positive rate is about 0.07%- 0.08% since 30/9 (which is my estimate of the reports relevant to Step 2 Melbourne being taken)

Daily Positive Test Rate - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Victoria

covidlive.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just a small matter to raise

Today is the 9/10 and the mystery cases are 21/9-6/10

Then the two possible decision dates are
18/10 covering the mystery case period 2/10-15/10 which already has 5
19/10 covering the mystery case period 3/10-16/10 which already has 4.

Also likewise for new cases (less than 70 over 14 days):
18/10 will cover cases from 4/10 which is currently 44 (minus 1 for Mildura) with 9 days to go.
19/10 will cover cases from 5/10 which is 36 (-1) with 10 days to go.

In essence you are agreeing with me, and that the target is unlikely as I stated . However the scenario you have perhaps not thought about is that when the decision date is due depending on what the cases are and if they have been zero, or at least all classified, that they may know what the extra day or twos mystery cases will be zero and so the full 48rs may not be required..

But that is basically academic as stated previously I doubt that they will now reach the target then and rather that the original modelled date is more likely.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

'This could fail': Disturbing number of Covid cases in Victoria going undetected

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has warned the state's public health response 'could fail' if residents become complacent.

au.yahoo.com

Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has said about 30 per cent of the state’s coronavirus cases could be going undetected.

I think the headline is a bit dramatic though as is not so much "disturbing" (as in not expected), but is just the reality what occurs with Covid 19 as we have always known that throughout the world that you have many infected people who are asymptomatic, and as such will not present for testing, and in turn be found. Some asymptomatic may be detected due to be close contacts. Some asymptomatic close contacts also will just be part of a household in isolation and may never be recoded as a case. It is also what many jurisdictions look to have two incubation periods after the last case in case there are still asymptomatic spreaders that have been missed.

Add to that hefty % of asymptomatic people, the symptomatic who fail to get tested. Some of whom may have only very mild symptoms, and other who for various reason just choose to not be tested.

What is relied on is that those asymptomatic people will if contagious sooner or later create symptomatic infections who then will seek testing, and that contact tracing might then also reveal, or at least isolate, asymptomatic people.

In NZ their second wave was well established bore fore the first case was detected, and may have gad many generations since it was started by whomever patient zero was.

 

[Pushka]

If everything is so completely locked down with very limited family Contact and very restricted movement, how on earth is it still spreading?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

If everything is so completely locked down with very limited family Contact and very restricted movement, how on earth is it still spreading?

You have been told several times now that Vic is not completely locked down.

If you look at many of the recent cases you may note spread is often at workplaces.

Ie Butchers, baker, hospital.....

Also the Frankston family did not do what they should have. If they had of there would have been over forty odd less recent cases.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So unkown down 2 case. So that means I new mystery case today. So rolling trigger will not be met.

 

[Pushka]

You have been told several times now that Vic is not completely locked down.

If you look at many of the recent cases you may note spread is often at workplaces.

Ie Butchers, baker, hospital.....

Also the Frankston family did not do what they should have. If they had of there would have been over forty odd less recent cases.

Oh. Thankyou. I have been told! Doesn't explain it though, does it!

 

[straitman]

Oh. Thankyou. I have been told! Doesn't explain it though, does it!

All it takes is a few people to do the wrong thing as we saw with someone spreading the virus out of Melbourne to Kilmore etc.
Getting through the ‘Ring of Steel’ is not difficult for various reasons.
Firstly they cannot block every road or an individual can simply wait until it rains when they don’t man the checkpoints.

 

[jakeseven7]

If everything is so completely locked down with very limited family Contact and very restricted movement, how on earth is it still spreading?

Supermarkets, pharmacies still open. All restaurants and cafes open and doing takeaway. All retail doing click and collect. Healthcare services open. Delivery services open. Construction open. All of Victoria’s distribution centres that service the rest of Australia being our engine room port city - open.

List goes on and on, it was never a NZ style lock down in VIC as Australia has never been going for eradication.

Plenty of chances for a pesky virus to spread

As NZ found out, even if you think you have gotten rid of it, you haven’t.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Oh. Thankyou. I have been told! Doesn't explain it though, does it!

Virus is highly transmissible.

Infected cleaner who knew their family members were positive goes to work for 3 days. Infects other workers. They then infect other workers and customers as well as their family members. This includes workers at nearby businesses such as the bsker.

One close contact then drives to Kilmore to provide care. Illegally visits cafe and infects person.

Etc.

 

[Pushka]

Supermarkets, pharmacies still open. All restaurants and cafes open and doing takeaway. All retail doing click and collect. Healthcare services open. Delivery services open. Construction open. All of Victoria’s distribution centres that service the rest of Australia being our engine room port city - open.

List goes on and on, it was never a NZ style lock down in VIC as Australia has never been going for eradication.

Plenty of chances for a pesky virus to spread

As NZ found out, even if you think you have gotten rid of it, you haven’t.

NZ is still processing international travellers in quarantine (and which had a slip up creating the most recent issue I think?) so its reintroduction to a previously virus free country is understandable.

It does suggest that the benchmarks for the reduction of restrictions are almost impossible to achieve for a long time. So maybe at last Australia will just come to terms with how to manage cases moving forward.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Virus is highly transmissible.

Infected cleaner who knew their family members were positive goes to work for 3 days. Infects other workers. They then infect other workers and customers as well as their family members. This includes workers at nearby businesses such as the bsker.

One close contact then drives to Kilmore to provide care. Illegally visits cafe and infects person.

Etc.

All it takes is a few people to do the wrong thing as we saw with someone spreading the virus out of Melbourne to Kilmore etc.
Getting through the ‘Ring of Steel’ is not difficult for various reasons.
Firstly they cannot block every road or an individual can simply wait until it rains when they don’t man the checkpoints.

The Kilmore case was spread by someone who had a permitted reason for travel. They were as a Melbourne resident not allowed to use sit down dining facilities at a cafe but did.