Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

NZ is still processing international travellers in quarantine (and which had a slip up creating the most recent issue I think?) so its reintroduction to a previously virus free country is understandable.

Actually they have been unable to confirm that They were unable to prove it either way. But that’s ok, because nowhere is going to be covid free. If it looks like it you just aren’t testing enough in the right places.

Just have to figure out a way to keep moving with some level of control and ready responses.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NZ is still processing international travellers in quarantine (and which had a slip up creating the most recent issue I think?) so its reintroduction to a previously virus free country is understandable.

NZ in their second wave had 3 known quarantine breaches.

However the patient zero for the majority of second wave cases remains unkown and so also the source of the fourth and earliest breach remains unknown. Genomically they know it was not linked to their first wave.

 

[33kft]

14 cases for Melbourne today pushing the average up. We would now need less than a case per day to get to < 5 by 19 October.

Before the usual response from the usual suspect about unknown cases being the key metric, can we remember that these two metrics are linked (the more cases you have the more you need to identify). Sadly none of this is even slightly good news for Melbourne, other than no deaths which we certainly can appreciate.

 

[TomVexille]

All it takes is a few people to do the wrong thing as we saw with someone spreading the virus out of Melbourne to Kilmore etc.
Getting through the ‘Ring of Steel’ is not difficult for various reasons.
Firstly they cannot block every road or an individual can simply wait until it rains when they don’t man the checkpoints.

Ring of wet paper maybe. I've been regional for work 4 times since the restriction came in and I've had my paperwork checked once. Twice there's been no checkpoint, and most recently they decided the queue was too long so myself and a whole bunch of cars were just waved through after about a 25 minute wait.

 

[Pushka]

Ring of wet paper maybe. I've been regional for work 4 times since the restriction came in and I've had my paperwork checked once. Twice there's been no checkpoint, and most recently they decided the queue was too long so myself and a whole bunch of cars were just waved through after about a 25 minute wait.

And there is the weakest link. Is ADFA not being deployed to bolster numbers?

 

[TomVexille]

And there is the weakest link. Is ADFA not being deployed to bolster numbers?

They are. The time I did get checked it was by an ADF member (ironically was travelling to an ADF facility).

As far as I can tell in my limited experiences only the major highways have checkpoints

 

[lovetravellingoz]

They are. The time I did get checked it was by an ADF member (ironically was travelling to an ADF facility).

As far as I can tell in my limited experiences only the major highways have checkpoints

Given the number of backroads it would be 100% impossible to completely enforce it. They are more relying on that people may be checked and that there is a hefty fine. Plus that most people do the right thing.


However let's not go overboard here, the Kilmore spread was via a person who had a permitted reason to travel and so would have passed through any checking.

They were not symptomatic when they travelled and when they travelled they also did not know that they were a close contact of an infected case, but they used seating dining at a cafe when they should not have. That was the problem.

 

[DC3]

And there is the weakest link. Is ADFA not being deployed to bolster numbers?

There are plenty of ADF personnel who could be utilised without removing ADFA cadets from their training.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Points to remember:

• symptomatic people are very contagious just before they become symptomatic
• symptomatic cases can also be contagious.

So spread can easily occur via people who do not yet know that they are contagious, and who have no reason to suspect that they are contagious. ie The butchers at the Butcher Club, the care giver that drove to Kilmore.

Spread can also occur via people who know that they may be contagious. ie The cleaner who worked for 3 days at The Butcher Club.

Note that one of yesterday's cases was a manager at a bakers at Chadstone who is asymptomatic and who only presented for testing as 1/ they were working at Chadstone and 2/ everyone at Chadstone was encouraged to be tested if they were there on certain days.

 

[TomVexille]

Given the number of backroads it would be 100% impossible to completely enforce it. They are more relying on that people may be checked and that there is a hefty fine. Plus that most people do the right thing.


However let's not go overboard here, the Kilmore spread was via a person who had a permitted reason to travel and so would have passed through any checking.

They were not symptomatic when they travelled and when they travelled they also did not know that they were a close contact of an infected case, but they used seating dining at a cafe when they should not have. That was the problem.

Absolutely you can't enforce every road. But you'd think maybe a few of the major A and B roads out of Melbourne might have a few checkpoints and not just the M Highways

 

[jakeseven7]

Breaking: QLD Health has just reported that they have detected coronavirus in Townsville via waste water sampling despite ‘no cases’ in the area....

EDIT: The caretaker Health minister just confirmed it. And also tried to defend the fact that a very high profile millionaire family with connections to the QLD government got exemption from hotel quarantine services on compassionate grounds, despite denying an identical claim to a normal family a few days ago. Disgusting.

Quick everyone slam the border shut to QLD

 

[TomVexille]

Breaking: QLD Health has just reported that they have detected coronavirus in Townsville via waste water sampling.

Quick everyone slam the border shut to QLD

No reopening until they find the source and get their testing numbers up

 

[jakeseven7]

No reopening until they find the source and get their testing numbers up

Please it’s QLD Health we probably just got the paper work wrong and ticked the wrong box

Press conference is live now if anyone wants to watch a comedy show of them trying to defend why millionaires ‘don’t’ get special treatment after this mornings disaster....they are getting grilled....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Absolutely you can't enforce every road. But you'd think maybe a few of the major A and B roads out of Melbourne might have a few checkpoints and not just the M Highways

Well they could deploy vast numbers of staff on quiet roads 24/7, to limit what I believe is currently zero, or close to zero, new extra cases (Kilmore was permitted travel and so would have been waived through) or they could keep focussing where most of the cases are which is Metro Melbourne.

The new cases are frustrating us all but with pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic spread combined with some doing what they should not be doing cases will keep happening for a little while yet.

If one looks at most case case curves they tend to become asymptotic, before at last dropping to zero. We are just unfortunately in that phase. With numbers so low it does not take many transmissions for things to just keep bubbling along for a little while as frustrating as that is.

 

[RAM]

This article is one of the best CV summaries (with appropriate sourcing shown etc) from a reputable source that I've seen. Even better it is right up to date.

Well worth reading (with a cup of tea/coffee or glass of...) through to the end. Covers every conceivable question including why was this not revealed earlier etc.

The coronavirus is airborne -- what that means for you

Aerosols, droplets and microparticles. Here's what you should know about airborne transmission of COVID-19.

www.cnet.com

An issue with flying is that the HEPA filters only get the air after it has travelled across up to 20+ rows (in some planes). So yes they may remove some of the virus (unproven that they remove all airborne CV but not discussed in polite circles) - that only happens after air has travelled across many passengers. When a passenger gets out of their seat to walk to the toilets/kitchen etc - that creates turbulence which then alters the airflow path.

So wearing a mask as much as possible (eating/drinking excepted) AND always wearing some eye protection (clear glasses, sunglasses, or perhaps a face mask as some airlines seem to be requiring) is crucial when flying as a precaution. Doing so when out & about within Australia on the streets is akin to always wearing a seat belt when driving - a sensible precaution that cannot hurt and may well save your life

Post automatically merged: Oct 10, 2020

Please it’s QLD Health we probably just got the paper work wrong and ticked the wrong box

Press conference is live now if anyone wants to watch a comedy show of them trying to defend why millionaires ‘don’t’ get special treatment after this mornings disaster....they are getting grilled....

Isn't Jane one of the new directors-to-be on VA II or has that been totally wiped after she joined Hawaiian's Board?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

14 cases for Melbourne today pushing the average up. We would now need less than a case per day to get to < 5 by 19 October.

Before the usual response from the usual suspect about unknown cases being the key metric, can we remember that these two metrics are linked (the more cases you have the more you need to identify). Sadly none of this is even slightly good news for Melbourne, other than no deaths which we certainly can appreciate.

Victoria Government in a hard place now re: relaxations....... definitely feels like can’t see the end of the tunnel at the moment.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Victoria Government in a hard place now re: relaxations....... definitely feels like can’t see the end of the tunnel at the moment.

I think we can see the end, but just do not know when that will exactly be. With clusters/outbreaks getting less and less it would be hard to predict.

Very much in the test and contact tracing phase now. But pesky pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic spread combined with the occasional person who does the wrong thing will keep it going for an unknown period.

And then one day it will have just stopped. Maybe in a week, maybe in a month. No way to really know.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Dan has just stated that will still announce some relaxations next weekend, but that they will be reduced from what had been planned.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Dan has just stated that will still announce some relaxations next weekend, but that they will be reduced from what had been planned.

Vic Premier has been stating that for a while now.

Edit: apparently today is Vic Premier’s 100th straight daily press conference

 

[straitman]

Well they could deploy vast numbers of staff on quiet roads 24/7, to limit what I believe is currently zero, or close to zero, new extra cases (Kilmore was permitted travel and so would have been waived through) or they could keep focussing where most of the cases are which is Metro Melbourne.

We drove through a checkpoint to the east of Melbourne on Thursday without being checked. They were very polite and waved to us as we went through.