Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Premier has been stating that for a while now.

News to me.

Up until today it had been that they were hopeful of going to Step 2 on the 19th for Metro Melbourne.

Increasingly in recent days they were flagging that it may be more difficult to achieve.

Today was the first time I can recall him saying that it would not occur, and that instead they will bring in some partial relaxations (yet to be determined).

---

Kilmore clusters now 6 including 2 staff, mainly centered around the cafe. So part of next weekends relaxations for Metro Melbourne would most likely not include " limited indoor dining".

 

[Pushka]

Absolutely you can't enforce every road. But you'd think maybe a few of the major A and B roads out of Melbourne might have a few checkpoints and not just the M Highways

Or even just randomly would be a start.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Or even just randomly would be a start.

They do random checks. My 88 year old dad was checked 2 days ago when he was out driving for a valid reason.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

News to me.

Up until today it had been that they were hopeful of going to Step 2 on the 19th for Metro Melbourne.

Increasingly in recent days they were flagging that it may be more difficult to achieve.

Today was the first time I can recall him saying that it would not occur, and that instead they will bring in some partial relaxations (yet to be determined).

It’s been hinted at that there won’t be no relaxation since probably Thursday. You responded to a post of mine which had a link to a Yahoo news article that mentions it.

Remember this article? 'This could fail': Disturbing number of Covid cases in Victoria going undetected

It later states:

Increasingly unlikely trigger points will be met
He had previously hinted Melbourne could transition to Step Three on the roadmap even if the trigger points aren’t met.

The roadmap indicates the city needs a 14-day average of five cases, and no more than five mystery cases during the same period, to further ease restrictions on October 19.

On Friday, the 14-day rolling average sat at 9.4 while there were 12 mystery cases over a 14-day period.

"It is, of course, frustrating to see that slow, even if steady movement, down (in case numbers),” he said.

"We have seen a bit of a plateauing in recent days and I am as frustrated as anyone but the underlying trend will get us there."

On Thursday, Mr Andrews confirmed “some changes” will be made on October 19, however refrained from elaborating whether they’d mostly have an economic or social benefit.


Not expecting you to read and watch everything. But perhaps you have been taking too much of the positive/hopeful side of leaving restrictions, leaving you blinkered when even the Vic Premier has effectively been hinting Step 3 Melbourne won’t be happening on or about 19/10.

The blue words above goes to this Yahoo news article if you were interested.

'There will be changes': Premier promises lockdown relief despite new cases

While it is unlikely Melbourne will reach the trigger points for restrictions to be eased on time, the Premier has assured them there will be some relief.

au.news.yahoo.com

 

[straitman]

News to me.

Up until today it had been that they were hopeful of going to Step 2 on the 19th for Metro Melbourne.

Increasingly in recent days they were flagging that it may be more difficult to achieve.

Today was the first time I can recall him saying that it would not occur, and that instead they will bring in some partial relaxations (yet to be determined).

First stated about 3-4 days ago.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It’s been hinted at that there won’t be no relaxation since probably Thursday. You responded to a post of mine which had a link to a Yahoo news article that mentions it.

Remember this article? 'This could fail': Disturbing number of Covid cases in Victoria going undetected

It later states:

Increasingly unlikely trigger points will be met
He had previously hinted Melbourne could transition to Step Three on the roadmap even if the trigger points aren’t met.

The roadmap indicates the city needs a 14-day average of five cases, and no more than five mystery cases during the same period, to further ease restrictions on October 19.

On Friday, the 14-day rolling average sat at 9.4 while there were 12 mystery cases over a 14-day period.

"It is, of course, frustrating to see that slow, even if steady movement, down (in case numbers),” he said.

"We have seen a bit of a plateauing in recent days and I am as frustrated as anyone but the underlying trend will get us there."

On Thursday, Mr Andrews confirmed “some changes” will be made on October 19, however refrained from elaborating whether they’d mostly have an economic or social benefit.


Not expecting you to read and watch everything. But perhaps you have been taking too much of the positive/hopeful side of leaving restrictions, leaving you blinkered when even the Vic Premier has effectively been hinting Step 3 Melbourne won’t be happening on or about 19/10.

The blue words above goes to this Yahoo news article if you were interested.

'There will be changes': Premier promises lockdown relief despite new cases

While it is unlikely Melbourne will reach the trigger points for restrictions to be eased on time, the Premier has assured them there will be some relief.

au.news.yahoo.com

Thank you.

I have not watched all of the the pressers of late and missed that line.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW

#COVID19 cases recorded in NSW in the 24 hours to 8pm last night: - 1 case was diagnosed in a returned traveller in hotel quarantine - 2 cases were locally acquired and under investigation

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW mystery case watch

After the ‘disaster‘ outbreak recently, thought to wait and see and it’s not promising:

Today’s reports indicate:
- 5 in the past 7 days
- 1 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 30 older than 28 days but since Crossroads emerging.

PS new venues and some more dates and time to existing named venues as per tonight’s public health alerts.

NSW mystery case watch

As expected 48 hour deadline rule of Qld border restriction is not met, but some ‘improvement’

Today’s reports indicate:
- 3 in the past 7 days
- 1 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 29 older than 28 days but since Crossroads emerging.

I hope all this NSW/Vic data (maybe even NZ data) is used to create a more robust definition of hotspot because seemingly what has been proposed to date is unlikely to be workable.

 

[straitman]

And there is the weakest link. Is ADFA not being deployed to bolster numbers?

I am assuming from this and your later post you meant front line ADF and not ADFA. They are either teaching staff or students at ADFA.

 

[Pushka]

I am assuming from this and your later post you meant front line ADF and not ADFA. They are either teaching staff or students at ADFA.

That’s funny. . I was trying to work out what the extra A was. Of course. He was at ADFA now an Engineer with ADF. Air Force. He was supposed to start his next assignment in Canberra in early January but the call to be assigned in WA put the kybosh on that.

 

[RAM]

Amazing what can happen when you're a political donor & employ ex-politicians such as ex-Premiers (Barry O'Farrell).

Cannot have primary school sports days but can have 11,000 semi-alcohol affected people at race days with the majority of whom being the largest group for CV transmission (ex-hotel quarantines) since April.

Now NSW could be lucky and there will not be one person attending who is CV+. Is it worth the gamble though? I suspect Qld tourist related businesses will not be happy when they hear about this.

The start of the article says it all: "A deal...."

Everest Carnival 2020: COVID crowd limits lifted for Sydney racing festival

A deal has been struck to allow thousands more racegoers trackside for The Everest with a special easing of restrictions for the world’s richest turf race to boost the state’s economy.

Health orders were signed late Friday to create a special exemption so 11,000 racegoers can attend Royal Randwick next Saturday for the signature event — more than double the current arrangements.

The public health order formalises a limited exemption on COVID restrictions for three race days, including the Golden Eagle at Rosehill, to boost events in the state.

Racing boss Peter V’landys, who has led the state in ensuring the survival of major events through the pandemic, continues to urge the government to examine greater capacity options when the strong data on NSW COVID infection rates warrants it.

Jobs Minister Stuart Ayres secured the exemptions for the race days with a series of COVID-safe plans developed by the Australian Turf Club approved by NSW Health.

______________________________________________​

No NSW racecourse had quadrupled the number of toilets for females in the last decade let alone since CV began. Just one potential bottleneck/transmission point that springs to mind.

 

[drron]

The Townsville wastewater positive finding may be related to this story.

Show must go on but Victorian ride workers fined, 'escorted off premises'

Mackay has had its first COVID-19 scare after months of having zero cases in the region.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

The TV news said they were heading to Townsville and possibly some may have gone ahead.Showmen often don't divulge everything they know.The ones in Mackay tested negative but that doesn't rule out past infection but still getting rid of virus particles.

 

[TheRealTMA]

If everything is so completely locked down with very limited family Contact and very restricted movement, how on earth is it still spreading?

Covidiots.

 

[nickykim]

There is still low level spread in Melbourne because people just don’t think about anybody except themselves and chose not to follow the rules - someone was diagnosed in the western suburbs who had spent 4 hours Friday last week (i.e. not yesterday) on the beach and pier at Altona without wearing a mask. If you legitimately can’t wear a mask for health reasons, why would you then chose to go to a beach area on a warm day for exercise instead of finding somewhere less crowded. Some people are just selfish and have no ethics.

 

[33kft]

So many epidemiologists on AFF. Don't see many of them from VIC though. Perhaps your skills in coming to conclusions on the cause of spread from newspaper headlines are what we're missing down here. Want to volunteer your services?

 

[DC3]

So many epidemiologists on AFF. Don't see many of them from VIC though. Perhaps your skills in coming to conclusions on the cause of spread from newspaper headlines are what we're missing down here ....

If it’s good enough for the POTUS, then .......

 

[DC3]

The Townsville wastewater positive finding may be related to this story.

Show must go on but Victorian ride workers fined, 'escorted off premises'

Mackay has had its first COVID-19 scare after months of having zero cases in the region.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

The TV news said they were heading to Townsville and possibly some may have gone ahead.Showmen often don't divulge everything they know.The ones in Mackay tested negative but that doesn't rule out past infection but still getting rid of virus particles.

Ah. Gate-crashing carnies no less.

 

[33kft]

Ah. Gate-crashing carnies no less.

I tell you what, those gate crashing carnies need to buy themselves a lottery ticket, because it seems based on this theory that they just happen to be one of the current active cases (where 192 are known) out of 6.689 million Victorians (they are not necessarily Melbournians) which means they just happen to be one of the 0.0028% of Victorians who are infected, or will become part of this count after their positive test that doesn't seem to have materialised yet after a day or two of this being reported on.

Now what are the odds that one of those people also happens to be one of the people nabbed for having the wrong kind of border pass?

It couldn't possibly be someone who has the right border pass could it, because the right border pass renders the virus benign. Hence why they aren't stopped, tested and sent back.

Ipso facto, only Victorians with invalid or no border passes present a risk of community spread. It can't be someone from another state because their spread is under control. There can't possibly be community spread in QLD at the moment after 28 days of no positive tests in the community (at a rate of ~5,000 tests per day vs 16,000 in VIC and 15,000 in NSW). And given these people were heading towards the region where there was virus detected, it was probably their downstream viral load making its way into the catchment area, assuming it even runs in that direction and rate, or assumes that they were leaving the place they stated they were heading to and for some reason that was vitally important for them to conceal (perhaps they knew they'd set off the water tests and wanted to throw everyone off their scent). Case closed ladies and gentlemen.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ah. Gate-crashing carnies no less.

That would seem to be a very long bow to link them to the Townsville Sewer Samples as no positive tests from them, or in Mackay in the general populace where they were, nor in the Mackay Sewer Samples.

The scope of this program includes south east Queensland and a limited number of other sites, based on major population centres and tourism hubs. The program commenced mid-July and will run for 13 weeks. Current locations are listed below, but may change:

• Brisbane
• Ipswich
• Logan
• Gold Coast
• Sunshine Coast
• Hervey Bay
• Mackay
• Cannonvale-Airlie Beach
• Townsville
• Cairns

 

[drron]

Except that people may shed virus for some weeks after having corona virus.
"Infected people's stools may contain viral fragments, and shedding can extend for several weeks beyond the person's infectious period. "

COVID-19 traces found at Newcastle sewage treatment plant

A viral fragment of COVID-19 is detected at the Burwood Beach sewage treatment plant near Newcastle.

www.abc.net.au

So it doesn't mean there is someone in the area that is infectious now.It is of concern that if repeated testing showing increasing amounts of viral pieces.
As there have been many more Victorians who have been infected makes it a possibility that a previously infected Victorian may have visited Townsville.