Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

If I were a journalist I would probably ask Brett Sutton, not the Premier, for the reason why they can’t draw on the NSW experience more in relaxing restrictions - as NSW had more active cases than Victoria currently does, for almost a month, and was able to dramatically reduce the numbers (29 July - 26 August). Might be a good question, and I’m pretty sure Prof Sutton would have a good answer (cluster related?).

You are right it is a good question and the reporters there have asked loads of times, the general answer they give is that NSW never got to the level of community transmission (absolute wise) that VIC did.

So they had to take more assertive action to crush the chains of transmission - which has clearly worked very very well, just not to the very ambitious (some may argue near-eradication) targets they set.

 

[TomVexille]

I think the next question is why does the virus seem to spread more in Victoria than NSW or QLD even with more restrictions in place?

 

[Lynda2475]

From SMH:

NSW records seven new local cases as links for mystery cases found

NSW has recorded seven new local coronavirus cases in the latest 24-hour reporting period, after a household believed to provide the missing link for a number of cases previously without a known source tested positive.

Of the seven new cases, two were the Lakemba GPs who were reported in the media yesterday afternoon.

The five other local cases were members of the same household who health authorities believe link nine other cases which were under investigation.

"NSW Health can now also advise the five new cases provide a link between the previously four unlinked cases that include a nurse from St Vincent’s Hospital, and a previously reported cluster of five people in south-western Sydney linked with Liverpool Hospital," NSW Health said.

"This means 14 people reported between 8 October to today are now linked."

One member of this household is a disability worker who worked at three small group homes in south-west Sydney with seven clients. Interviews and contact tracing is under way.

Another member of the household attended the Great Beginnings childcare centre at Oran Park in Sydney's south-west on October 1, 2, 8, and 9 while infectious. The centre has been closed for cleaning and contact tracing is under way.

The state also recorded six new cases in hotel quarantine, bringing the NSW total case total to 4106.


Also from SMH:

Two Sydney GPs latest local cases of COVID-19 as patients urged to get tested

Patients from a GP clinic in south-western Sydney have been directed to self-isolate and get tested after two doctors tested positive for COVID-19.

The doctors were linked to a previously reported case who attended Lakemba Radiology.

The cases, announced on Monday afternoon, were on top of the six cases reported earlier. Those cases included five in overseas travellers and one locally acquired.

As a result of the GPs testing positive, all staff from A2Z Medical Centre in Lakemba were self-isolating and being tested, a NSW Health spokeswoman said.

The department is in the process of contacting all close contacts, who must get tested and self-isolate for 14 days regardless of test results.

"Some people will be managed as close contacts," the spokeswoman said. "NSW Health will contact everyone directly to provide tailored advice depending on their exposure."

Anyone who visited the A2Z Medical Centre between Tuesday, September 29, and Saturday, October 10, is considered a close contact, NSW Health said on Monday night. They must be tested immediately and isolate for 14 days from exposure regardless of the result.

Anyone who went to the medical centre from Friday, September 25, to Monday, September 28, should get tested immediately, but they do not need to isolate if they receive a negative result as two weeks have already passed.

When asked earlier in the day how many staff and patients were affected, the spokeswoman said investigations were ongoing.
It remains unclear whether the cases were linked to the Liverpool private health clinic cluster, which, as of Monday morning, included eight cases.

Also, anyone who attended the Ali Dine Inn and Take Away in Lakemba on Friday, October 9, from 7.30pm to 8.30pm, is considered a close contact, NSW Health said on Monday night. They must be tested immediately and isolate for 14 days from exposure regardless of the result.

In addition, anyone who attended ISRA Medical practice from 6pm on Monday, October 5, to 6am on Tuesday, October 6, is considered a casual contact and must monitor for symptoms and get tested immediately if they develop. They must remain in isolation until a negative test result is received.

People who attended other venues in Lakemba and caught trains at particular times were considered casual contacts and asked to monitor for symptoms.

People who spent more than an hour in the Ingleburn Hotel Bar Room in Ingleburn between 3pm and 6pm on Sunday, October 4, have also been directed to self-isolate for 14 days and get tested, after the venue was visited by confirmed cases.

Earlier on Monday the mayor of Liverpool, the area home to the city's two growing coronavirus clusters, said she was extremely concerned about the spread of the virus in her community after locals were not wearing masks on the weekend.

Wendy Waller told Today her local residents "have been doing their best" to follow guidance from NSW Health, but she believes fatigue has set in.

"Yesterday when I did my shopping locally, I was the only one wearing a mask yet a month ago everybody was wearing a mask," Cr Waller said.

"So I think we have to be careful, even though it's frustrating ... this is a very contagious disease and we have to continue to be preventative in what we're doing."

While more than 2.8 million tests have been done in NSW, on Sunday 7391 were reported, down from 12,823 the day before.

"These testing numbers are much lower than we would like," NSW Deputy Chief Health Officer Dr Jeremy McAnulty said, urging people to come forward for testing if they had even the mildest of symptoms.

"This is important throughout the state but particularly important in the western and south-western Sydney areas," he said.

NSW Health has opened a pop-up testing clinic at Lakemba Uniting Church, which will be open from 10am to 4pm on Tuesday.
The ongoing uncovering of cases in western Sydney came as the Prime Minister accused Queensland's Deputy Premier of treating politics like television over the state's tough border stance.

"And I just see what some politicians like this character [Deputy Premier Steven Miles]. They just treat it like it's some sort of reality television show. It's not. It's really serious: people's lives and livelihoods in the middle of a COVID-19 recession," Scott Morrison told 4BC.
Mr Miles, who is also Queensland's Health Minister, retorted by accusing Mr Morrison of only visiting Queensland this week to continue his "co-ordinated effort" with the Queensland LNP to reopen the interstate border as soon as possible.

Under Queensland's border rules, the state will not reopen to NSW or Victoria unless the states go for 28 days without a locally acquired case of COVID-19 that has an unknown source.

 

[jakeseven7]

From SMH:

NSW records seven new local cases as links for mystery cases found

NSW has recorded seven new local coronavirus cases in the latest 24-hour reporting period, after a household believed to provide the missing link for a number of cases previously without a known source tested positive.

Of the seven new cases, two were the Lakemba GPs who were reported in the media yesterday afternoon.

The five other local cases were members of the same household who health authorities believe link nine other cases which were under investigation.

"NSW Health can now also advise the five new cases provide a link between the previously four unlinked cases that include a nurse from St Vincent’s Hospital, and a previously reported cluster of five people in south-western Sydney linked with Liverpool Hospital," NSW Health said.

"This means 14 people reported between 8 October to today are now linked."

One member of this household is a disability worker who worked at three small group homes in south-west Sydney with seven clients. Interviews and contact tracing is under way.

Another member of the household attended the Great Beginnings childcare centre at Oran Park in Sydney's south-west on October 1, 2, 8, and 9 while infectious. The centre has been closed for cleaning and contact tracing is under way.

The state also recorded six new cases in hotel quarantine, bringing the NSW total case total to 4106.

I wonder if QLD will accept this late linking?

 

[dajop]

I think the next question is why does the virus seem to spread more in Victoria than NSW or QLD even with more restrictions in place?

From previous discussions, basically it got into the wrong demographic and it had been exceedingly difficult to suppress in that demographic. I think Brett Sutton made a remark that the average household size in Victoria was somewhere between 2 and 3, but the average household size they have been dealing with in the pandemic was much higher.

it’s also interesting that it was much easier to control in regional Vic (more akin to NSW) than Melbourne.

Throw in the cold July/August weather where people hang around inside, delayed implementation of lockdown and substandard/swamped contact tracing at the start of the second wave, it is not surprising that it is still proving difficult to suppress.

 

[jakeseven7]

Throw in the cold July/August weather where people hang around inside, delayed implementation of lockdown and substandard/swamped contact tracing at the start of the second wave, it is not surprising that it is still proving difficult to suppress.

Weather always comes up and will be interesting now Melbourne is starting to really warm up what happens.... They do have scorching summers as well.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Given the provisional linking of NSW cases, today’s NSW mystery case watch will not be posted. Perhaps tomorrow lol.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

If I were a journalist I would probably ask Brett Sutton, not the Premier, for the reason why they can’t draw on the NSW experience more in relaxing restrictions - as NSW had more active cases than Victoria currently does, for almost a month, and was able to dramatically reduce the numbers (29 July - 26 August). Might be a good question, and I’m pretty sure Prof Sutton would have a good answer (cluster related?).

Sutton was essentially asked and answered that question today (not quite but he was responding to a question on the differences). You can see/hear his full response if you watch a replay of the press conference.
Tune in at 27 minutes 45 seconds.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315796658441969664

Allen Cheng has also spoken on this at previous pressers.

A key factor has been the number of large households that have been characteristic of this second wave in Vic. Sutton indicated today that NSW average household size was about 2.5 whereas Vic Second Wave has been two to three times that.

ie Frankston Family outbreak total cases to date =13) and Casey community outbreak (total cases: 45. From memory at 5 family related households and so that is an average of 9 infected people per household). This factor is a reason why the transmission rate from a single new case has often been quite high. This also means that the threat of new cases taking off is more. It also means that contacts for contact tracing can balloon more quickly.

Then add other factors like degree of unknown community spread, coming from seven hundred cases per day (ie NSW never had a massive backlog jamming things up) and other factors.

Coming off a large number of cases is relevant compared to NSW, and other states, as due to asymptomatic spread it is likely that there are more unknown cases than the tests reveal (I think Sutton estimated 30% not long back).

 

[Pushka]

Drama Queen at the Vic Presser strikes again stating that NSW has more cases than Vic today with 13 cases.

But of course does not mention 6 are in hotel quarantine and so local cases are in fact 7 and not 13. Hence NSW is not more than Vic.

Post automatically merged: Oct 13, 2020

View attachment 230330

They keep on doing that. Damn Annoying if Qld buys into the stupidity - more than they already have.

Post automatically merged: Oct 13, 2020

I think the next question is why does the virus seem to spread more in Victoria than NSW or QLD even with more restrictions in place?

Agree totally. Surely Vic has no more Covidiots than NSW.

 

[p--and--t]

Agree totally. Surely Vic has no more Covidiots than NSW.

This has been answered multiple times with respect to the long stubborn tail. The families involved have nine or more people in them. A very specific demographic so a single infection can turn into 10 or more very quickly when they are all living under the same roof and also onto extended families at separate premises while they were asymptomatic/untested & sharing child minding duties. Also some of them were/are in occupations where they moved site to site.

 

[N860CR]

This has been answered multiple times with respect to the long stubborn tail. The families involved have nine or more people in them. A very specific demographic so a single infection can turn into 10 or more very quickly when they are all living under the same roof and also onto extended families at separate premises while they were asymptomatic/untested & sharing child minding duties. Also some of them were/are in occupations where they moved site to site.

Correct. And given there has been a Lakemba GP practice infected, there are likely to be big numbers coming out of that. Similar to the results in certain Melbourne suburbs. For some reason, it’s perceived as racist (who knows why) to point this out so it’s a fact that often gets lost

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think the next question is why does the virus seem to spread more in Victoria than NSW or QLD even with more restrictions in place?

See my reply to dajpop on what Sutton said today. And Cheng has said similar in the past. So a key reason has been indicated to be that size of households have been 2 to 3 times larger in Vic in the second wave. So that makes it spread quicker. I mean what family/household socially distances, or wears, masks at home?

Add to that higher degree of unknown local transmission.

And rules not always followed, but perhaps luck plays a part: If that one cleaner does not go to work then even ignoring cases in that family (13) you then do not get the next 40 odd cases (Chadstone and Kilmore).

Purely speculation. There also seems to have been quite a number of cases within a short drive of Chadstone, an so maybe they were linked via an uknown asymptomatic links. So maybe coincidental, and maybe not.

 

[RooFlyer]

If I were a journalist I would probably ask Brett Sutton, not the Premier, for the reason why they can’t draw on the NSW experience more in relaxing restrictions -

It would be a good question, but remember Sutton has less authority/influence than in other states. So he may be restrained in what he might say, as his actual opinion may conflict with the situation he works under.

Correct. And given there has been a Lakemba GP practice infected, there are likely to be big numbers coming out of that. Similar to the results in certain Melbourne suburbs. For some reason, it’s perceived as racist (who knows why) to point this out so it’s a fact that often gets lost

Yes, we have to dance around the political correctness.

Meanwhile, from Tas Premier Gutwein's press conference today:

* Decision on arrivals from NSW (ie non-quarantine from Oct 26 along with ACT, SA, WA, NT, QLD) to be made next week

* Discussions re travel from NZ continuing (ie Border Force situation) - I's take that with a grain of salt

Tasmania on track to open border to 'low-risk' states and territories by end of October

Tasmania is due to open its border to "low-risk jurisdictions" before the end of the month, but will not decide whether or not to accept travellers from NSW until next Monday, the Premier says.

www.abc.net.au

There is a new travel app Tas-E travel, but no details that I can find. From paywalled Mercury:

The government’s Safe Borders plan states:

“People travelling from these (low-risk) jurisdictions will be required to register their travel a maximum of three days prior to arrival.

“Quarantine requirements will not be in place for people travelling from these jurisdictions provided they have not spent time in an Affected Region or Premises in the 14 days before arriving in Tasmania.

“Based on current public health advice, people travelling from low-risk jurisdictions from October 26 will be able to continue to transit directly though Victoria (only stopping for fuel) to Melbourne Airport or the Spirit of Tasmania terminal and not be subject to quarantine requirements that apply to that jurisdiction.”

The registration process will be available on the government’s coronavirus website from October 23.

 

[dajop]

This has been answered multiple times with respect to the long stubborn tail. The families involved have nine or more people in them. A very specific demographic so a single infection can turn into 10 or more very quickly when they are all living under the same roof and also onto extended families at separate premises while they were asymptomatic/untested & sharing child minding duties. Also some of them were/are in occupations where they moved site to site.

Yes. It would also seem that Victoria had good success with cases that didn't get into that demographic, specifically the first wave of spread from imported cases and the Stamford spread which seemed to peter out (vs the Rydges spread).

 

[dajop]

It would be a good question, but remember Sutton has less authority/influence than in other states. So he may be restrained in what he might say, as his actual opinion may conflict with the situation he works under.

I suspected he would (and from lovetravellingoz's post) he has provided a good explanation. Sutton has not been all that restrained in the past (eg. he admitted it wasn't upon his advice to impose the curfew).

 

[jakeseven7]

It would be a good question, but remember Sutton has less authority/influence than in other states. So he may be restrained in what he might say, as his actual opinion may conflict with the situation he works under.

Yeah I don't think so, he is probably the most outspoken of all the CHO's and most independent versus the state government oversights,

 

[Pushka]

This has been answered multiple times with respect to the long stubborn tail. The families involved have nine or more people in them. A very specific demographic so a single infection can turn into 10 or more very quickly when they are all living under the same roof and also onto extended families at separate premises while they were asymptomatic/untested & sharing child minding duties. Also some of them were/are in occupations where they moved site to site.

I'd have expected parts of Sydney to have exactly the same demographics. Brisbane not so much.

 

[dajop]

I'd have expected parts of Sydney to have exactly the same demographics.

Yes, doesn't mean it got into those demographics though. It seems it didn't in Melbourne's first wave which petered out, and it also from genomic testing it seems that the escape from the Stamford hotel quarantine didn't either as it also petered out (although there could also be virulence of the strains at play as well).

 

[p--and--t]

I'd have expected parts of Sydney to have exactly the same demographics. Brisbane not so much.

Sydney would have the demographic and to date (prior to today) it appears it has been lucky enough to not to have had the infection in that demographic. After today's reports, their luck might have just run out.