Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

Sydney would have the demographic and to date (prior to today) it appears it has been lucky enough to not to have had the infection in that demographic. After today's reports, their luck might have just run out.

I thought their daily report was fine. Luck? or good management I guess.

 

[Lynda2475]

Sydney would have the demographic and to date (prior to today) it appears it has been lucky enough to not to have had the infection in that demographic. After today's reports, their luck might have just run out.

This isn't entirely true many of the cases in Sydney since the Vic second wave and Crossroads outbreak have been in the same exact same demographic - hence the constant callouts for people in Western Sydney to get tested,

 

[jakeseven7]

This isn't entirely true many of the cases in Sydney since the Vic second wave and Crossroads outbreak have been in the same exact same demographic - hence the constant callouts for people in Western Sydney to get tested,

The seeding event though was picked up almost immediately in NSW, whereas VIC went undetected and had generations to grow unfortunately.

The question is for NSW (and QLD given all their mysterious sewerage testing results) is rooting out where the virus is hiding, because they know it is somewhere, transmitting with minor symptoms / asympotomatically, they just don't know where.

Hopefully it could also mean the strain is weakening?? (This part is a prayer not a clinical opinion lol).

 

[dajop]

This isn't entirely true many of the cases in Sydney since the Vic second wave and Crossroads outbreak have been in the same exact same demographic - hence the constant callouts for people in Western Sydney to get tested,

They are the same demographic (in the broader sense of the word, looking at socioeconomic status etc ), but I'm not sure they were the same "demographic" in the narrow sense of the word, where you had 13 people households, etc. It seems this word has been used as a code presumably to avoid to avoid inflaming tensions or offending anyone. It doesn't take much digging to find out specifically what communities are being referred to.

 

[RooFlyer]

Yeah I don't think so, he is probably the most outspoken of all the CHO's and most independent versus the state government oversights,

You are probably right - because he clearly hasn’t been in the loop on at least some critical decisions : viz his testimony to the hotel inquiry. I’m not sure he enjoys the extent of his ‘independence’.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes, doesn't mean it got into those demographics though. It seems it didn't in Melbourne's first wave which petered out, and it also from genomic testing it seems that the escape from the Stamford hotel quarantine didn't either as it also petered out (although there could also be virulence of the strains at play as well).

With the Stamford Plaza it should also be noted that it had not one, but two transmission leaks.

Some 46 workers from the Stamford Plaza and their close contacts were found to have caught COVID-19 from a man who returned from overseas on 1 June and a couple who returned on 11 June.

Whereas the Rydges Swanton had just the one.

Dr Alpren said the Rydges outbreak started with a family of four returning from overseas on May 9 and moved into the hotel on May 15 after displaying coronavirus symptoms.
By May 18, all four had tested positive.

By mid-June, a total of 17 workers at the hotel and their close contacts had tested positive.

The overwhelming majority cases in the Second Wave are gnomically linked to the Rydges. The Rydges transmission leak did have a head start of say 1 to 3 weeks, but it also infected a much smaller cluster of workers and their close contacts. 17 vs 46.

In terms the strains being of different virulence, from memory when this was discussed it was indicated to be thought to not be materially different.

So why did the Rydges Strain once it got out generate so many new cases, when the other two hotel transmissions did not? This has been pondered on in a number of posts today. In part as discussed it could well be just bad luck that it penetrated into the wrong demographic ( household size, distrust of government, etc). I also tend that a partial reason was that the authorities just though the new cases that were bobbing up were just the last of the second wave petering out, rather than being the tip of an emerging new wave ( a Covid 19 iceberg if you will) in a demographic which had two to three the household numbers and who also were for various reasons less willing to test and isolation. That behaviour again popping up recently in the cleaner from the Frankston Family Cluster who created the Chadstone and Kilmore Clusters.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Part of Today's Vic Media Release

13 October 2020

Victoria has recorded 12 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20305.
The overall total has increased by 10 due to two cases being reclassified.

There has been one new death from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. A man in his 70s. To date, 811 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

Two of today’s 12 new cases are confirmed as linked to known outbreaks and cases - one is linked to the Chadstone outbreak (household contact of a case), one is linked to Estia Keilor aged care facility. Nine cases are provisionally linked to known outbreaks and cases - seven are being investigated for links to a case from the Box Hill Hospital outbreak, including four cases from the same household, one is being investigated for links to a case from the Chadstone Shopping Centre outbreak and one is being investigated for links to Uniting Age Well Preston. One case remains under investigation.

Of today’s 12 new cases, four are in Banyule, two are in Hume and there are single cases in Casey, Darebin, Greater Dandenong, Manningham, Melbourne and Greater Geelong.

There has been one new case linked to the outbreak at the Chadstone Shopping Centre, taking the total to 35, and no new cases linked to the Oddfellows Café in Kilmore. The additional case at Chadstone attended the shopping centre during their acquisition period.
Testing is continuing in response to both of these outbreaks.

......


Non-aged care outbreaks with the highest number of active cases include:

• 17 active cases are currently linked to the Chadstone Shopping Centre outbreak (total cases: 35)
• 14 active cases are currently linked to the Box Hill Hospital outbreak (total cases: 14)
• 8 cases are linked to the south-eastern community outbreak (total cases: 8)
• 7 active cases are currently linked to the Frankston Family outbreak (total cases: 13)
• 5 active cases are currently linked to the Oddfellows Café in Kilmore (total cases: 6)

Health.vic

At the Department of Health, we're focused on supporting Victorians to be as healthy as they can by delivering a world-class health system that focuses on improving patient outcomes and experiences.

www.dhhs.vic.gov.au

 

[dajop]

So the Geelong case is confirmed as being a true positive and not a false positive? Or still waiting further confirmation?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This isn't entirely true many of the cases in Sydney since the Vic second wave and Crossroads outbreak have been in the same exact same demographic - hence the constant callouts for people in Western Sydney to get tested,

So Crossroads commonly had large households in crowded living conditions infected?

ie Casey cluster is 45 infections in 5 households. That is an average of 11 per dwelling.

Now that may have been one of the larger ones but reading about household cases of 7 or more has not been at all rare.

From the hints given I doubt that many of the large family clusters in Vic are of the behaviours to be regular users of venues like Crossroads (not that our pubs have been open anyway!). So for these two reasons I would doubt that they are the exact same demographic.

PS. I should also add that the demographic in Vic does also seem to be hardworking and very family oriented. Normally great behaviours, but ones that Covid19 takes advantage of.

Post automatically merged: Oct 13, 2020

So the Geelong case is confirmed as being a true positive and not a false positive? Or still waiting further confirmation?

I have not seen an update. I would imagine that they retested, and so may not be known till tomorrow.

 

[p--and--t]

I thought their daily report was fine. Luck? or good management I guess.

What I am referring to is there is a warning in today's report for a doctor's surgery in Lakemba for the last 2 weeks up to 10Oct. Drs surgeries are usually high traffic.

Covid loves environments where people gather together under the one roof for more than 15min, are not socially distancing and not wearing masks., whether it is a restaurant or hospital or nursing home or large family home or doctors surgery etc. It also tends to bubble away for too long and spreads to multiple people before being picked up if the infected are asymptomatic (often younger cohort).

The demographic for that suburb is mainly families (60%), mainly young (average age 20-39), many large family units. English is also the prime language in less then 20% of households in that locale. Perfect circumstances for the virus to bubble away in younger mobile working people and then explode.

These circumstances are very similar to the basis of recent Victorian stubborn outbreaks. Anecdotally similar is happening in the UK at the moment where it is being spread among the younger more mobile cohort.

If covid gets in there (not as yet evident) and not detected very quickly the numbers will inevitably rise.

 

[p--and--t]

Crossroads outbreak have been in the same exact same demographic

We will have to agree to disagree.

 

[blackcat20]

We get temperature screened at work every day and one of the new questions they've added is to check that you arent working at any other sites. Clearly targeting those that work at multiple locations and seem to be more likely to spread COVID.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Where Melbourne's Mystery Cases have been in the last two weeks (remember the 48 hr lag though).

• 3015 (Newport, South Kingsville, Spotswood)
• 3019 (Braybrook, Robinson)
• 3024 (Mambourin, Manor Lakes, Mount Cottrell, Wyndham Vale)
• 3025 (Altona East, Altona Gate, Altona North)
• 3027 (Williams Landing)
• 3037 (Calder Park, Delahey, Hillside, Sydenham, Taylors Hill)
• 3046 (Glenroy, Hadfield, Oak Park)
• 3073 (Reservoir)
• 3130 (Blackburn, Blackburn North, Blackburn South, Laburnum)
• 3147 (Ashburton, Ashwood)
• 3175 (Bangholme, Dandenong, Dandenong East, Dandenong North, Dandenong South, Dunearn)
• 3184 (Brighton Road, Elwood)

And active cases:

Where have Melbourne's recent 'mystery' COVID-19 cases been found?

Victoria's Health Department has released a list of the 12 Melbourne postcodes where mystery coronavirus cases have been confirmed in the past fortnight.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Flying mermaid]

What I am referring to is there is a warning in today's report for a doctor's surgery in Lakemba for the last 2 weeks up to 10Oct. Drs surgeries are usually high traffic.

Covid loves environments where people gather together under the one roof for more than 15min, are not socially distancing and not wearing masks., whether it is a restaurant or hospital or nursing home or large family home or doctors surgery etc. It also tends to bubble away for too long and spreads to multiple people before being picked up if the infected are asymptomatic (often younger cohort).

The demographic for that suburb is mainly families (60%), mainly young (average age 20-39), many large family units. English is also the prime language in less then 20% of households in that locale. Perfect circumstances for the virus to bubble away in younger mobile working people and then explode.

These circumstances are very similar to the basis of recent Victorian stubborn outbreaks. Anecdotally similar is happening in the UK at the moment where it is being spread among the younger more mobile cohort.

If covid gets in there (not as yet evident) and not detected very quickly the numbers will inevitably rise.

I would agree Lakemba is much closer to the Melbourne demographic where it spread rapidly. While the west can be a more challenged socioeconomic region, it does have a big cross section of people living there. E.g. my doctor daughter lived very close to the Crossroads hotel for a couple of years.

Dr FM told me in April when England was going through its first wave that a large number of the cases and deaths were due to multi generational families living in fairly crowded conditions. It was very hard to control spread and also as the grand parents became sick a large % died - particularly then when so little was known.

 

[Lynda2475]

So Crossroads commonly had large households in crowded living conditions infected?

I said since the Vic second wave and Crossroads seeding events, you taken the above out of context in which it was written.

In NSW most local transmission has been within households and household contacts of a person at the seed event. Only 20 out of 114 cases linked to Thai Rock actually visited Thai Rock. This 20 then went home and infected family/housemates who then went to their workplaces, school infected more who took it home again and infected their families.



The security guard who worked at a quarantine hotel and then at Paddy's market was part of the community which no one wants to name. Most infections in Western Sydney (particularly Parramatta, Lakemba), and a good portion of those in South West Sydney (Bankstown, Liverpool and Campbelltown) are likewise in low income recent immigrant families. Its just that high rise housing commission blocks are few and far between in NSW and we haven't had a second lock down so people are more mobile, and the cases spread over a wider geographic area. When you look at the city cases, you also see they are often accompanied by warning for train rides going back into Western and South West Sydney.

Demographics and weather isn't the whole story, leadership and government actions is an equally big part.

Vic had poor communications into its non English speaking communities after the hotel breaches, whereas NSW leveraged community leaders and had decentralised health teams who know how best to communicate in their regions.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I said since the Vic second wave and Crossroads seeding events, you taken the above out of context in which it was written.

In NSW most local transmission has been within households and household contacts of a person at the seed event. Only 20 out of 114 cases linked to Thai Rock actually visited Thai Rock. This 20 then went home and infected family/housemates who then went to their workplaces, school infected more who took it home again and infected their families.

View attachment 230355

The security guard who worked at a quarantine hotel and then at Paddy's market was part of the community which no one wants to name. Most infections in Western Sydney (particularly Parramatta, Lakemba), and a good portion of those in South West Sydney (Bankstown, Liverpool and Campbelltown) are likewise in low income recent immigrant families. Its just that high rise housing commission blocks are few and far between in NSW and we haven't had a second lock down so people are more mobile, and the cases spread over a wider geographic area. When you look at the city cases, you also see they are often accompanied by warning for train rides going back into Western and South West Sydney.

Demographics and weather isn't the whole story, leadership and government actions is an equally big part.

Vic had poor communications into its non English speaking communities after the hotel breaches, whereas NSW leveraged community leaders and had decentralised health teams who know how best to communicate in their regions.

The discussion was on size of households, and cases per household. I can't see anything there on household size, and nothing on Crossroads Hotel?

No one said that households were not involved interstate and indeed the discussion was on comparing cases per household in different jurisdictions, and in Victoria's case also between the first and second waves.

Sutton indicated today that household size elsewhere had been 2.5 persons per household, but that Vic Second Wave had been 2 to 3 times that. Cheng said similar things a little while back.

As you have acknowledged "most local transmission has been within households and household contacts" Does it not make sense then if larger households gain an infection that cases are then going to be more per household?

We have seen this in the Melbourne reports. I have not followed NSW closely but I don't recall large household numbers showing up like they have in Vic in the Second Wave. We did not see this that much in the First Wave in Vic.

 

[Lynda2475]

I've not talked about Crossroads because I am explicitly talking about the period since Crossroads, you keep trying to have a conversation about Crossroads and I'm talking about cases that came after the Crossroads.

I never disputed exposing a large family to a case wouldn't result in more cases, but we also know it wasn't all in the home and many of those family members were breaking the rules by going to work (work places have been a much bigger % of infections in Vic than in any other state by a significant factor) and visiting extended family who they didn't live with.

You cant blame the mess that Vic is in solely on large households - they are problematic for sure - but the problems started with letting Covid get into the community and take a foothold by being slow to share details with the public, then not effectively resourcing contact tracing until the problem became so big they couldn't contract trace at all. There were a series of bad decisions, poor leadership and not enough listening to their CHO.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I've not talked about Crossroads because I am explicitly talking about the period since Crossroads, you keep trying to have a conversation about Crossroads and I'm talking about cases that came after the Crossroads.

I never disputed exposing a large family to a case wouldn't result in more cases, but we also know it wasn't all in the home and many of those family members were breaking the rules by going to work (work places have been a much bigger % of infections in Vic than in any other state by a significant factor) and visiting extended family who they didn't live with.

You cant blame the mess that Vic is in solely on large households - they are problematic for sure - but the problems started with letting Covid get into the community and take a foothold by being slow to share details with the public, then not effectively resourcing contact tracing until the problem became so big they couldn't contract trace at all. There were a series of bad decisions, poor leadership and not enough listening to their CHO.

I think everyone has acknowledged that there was a range of problems, and obviously contact tracing. But many of us were discussing dajpops question today and Sutton's reply, a key part of which was the demographic of very large households.

If I were a journalist I would probably ask Brett Sutton, not the Premier, for the reason why they can’t draw on the NSW experience more in relaxing restrictions - as NSW had more active cases than Victoria currently does, for almost a month, and was able to dramatically reduce the numbers (29 July - 26 August). Might be a good question, and I’m pretty sure Prof Sutton would have a good answer (cluster related?). ​

However things have moved on with contact tracing and communications and are now quite different in Vic than they were including decentralised contact tracing. Large multi-generational households have still been prominent in Vic Cases of late though and that what was Sutton was flagging as being a key reason why approaches in Vic and NSW would remain different for the time being.

 

[Lynda2475]

And i replied to your statement which was incorrect in claiming the demographics were completely different in Sydney.

Many of the people who have contracted Covid-19 in Western and South Western Sydney since the Crossroads cluster have the same ethnic, cultural/religious background and economic circumstances as those in the largest clusters in Melbourne (outside aged care).

Your primary evidence for disputing my claim is that the menu at Crossroads is too expensive for the Melbourne cluster you are talking about and you know of non disadvantage people who live in the area, and the number of family members infected.

Yet today alone there were 5 from the same home, and they are the common link to the 14 mystery cases.

I was talking with a friend who is a very senior nurse at Concord Hospital last night, she goes to the daily briefings (Concord was pulled into the Liverpool Hospital Cluster by a Staff Member who worked at both), she knows people doing testing in South West and Western Sydney and Im more inclined take her word wrt to who they are seeing coming forward and testing positive.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Getting there: Mystery cases per day in Victoria.