Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[VPS]

When they opened the Covid control centre in Adelaide the mission in big letters on the wall was Flatten the Curve. So although they would like to eliminate it that is not the mission at the moment.

I'm concerned about the number of people who are now saying the risk is very low so going to congregate more and do things instead of giving it another two weeks. I'm still self isolating as much as possible

 

[tgh]

Can I be a bit ... cynical? The blurb is 'flattening the curve'. When I've heard 'elimination' put to the various expert talking heads, I don't think they've said that as an objective, straight out. Until there is a vaccine, maybe the un-revealed anticipation is to have the virus slowly burbling along, not over-whelming the health system? Re-lock-downs announced 'locally' as needs be.


I was responding to Burmans post in terms of escaping the lockdown shackles and was expressing no view about elimination.
Information is power and I opine that we don't have enough info about Covid to plan anything much.
We don't have accurate testing , we know little about post infection immunity, we know little about treatment, we know nothing about prophylactics.
The virus burbling along seems a recipe for an uncontrolled/uncontrollable outbreak as we cannot test reliably.

In the absence of more control over the virus, I opine that having a crack at elimination has to be an option given our brilliant progress to date.
We have already shut the country down at significant cost.. a bit longer offers a significant reward if it works.
Functional elimination means we gain a lot of individual freedom and relative safety and also allows business to get back to normal.
The cost down the track is mainly heavy border controls over ingress and egress and a significant cost and time factor for the process.

 

[drron]

The real problem is the test and false negatives.Various figures quoted but can be up to 30%.
So the problem in Australia is that we seem not to suggest a second test.

Personal example from today.with a person admitted with an unrelated illness.But 4 weeks before had classic symptoms of dry cough,dry nose and extreme fatique.Not tested as partner had those symptoms the week before-tested and was negative.But had worked in the North West mid March.Too late to test now but if it wasn't I am still not allowed to order the test without the Infectious Disease specialist's approval.

These instances after quarantine are becoming too frequent.Unbelievable even if only mild symptoms people aren't tested.But if tested and negative a second test really needs to be done.

But Pushka the app isn't going to help this problem.If someone has a false negative test or wasn't even tested then that person's phone will not be registered so no warning if they are close to you so you might be exposed and think safe as no warning from the app.

 

[DC3]

... they informed me I was still positive .... I received another call from the same person informing me that they had made an error and the result she had informed me about was the result from last week .... They called again around 2 pm and informed me that the result was clear and that I will be released from isolation with an email from NSW Health tomorrow ....

OMG.

 

[SydneySwan]

Today’s figures are out. Total nationally is 7 with TAS 4, NSW 2 and SA 1. Lowest national total for several weeks.

 

[DC3]

Today’s figures are out. Total nationally is 7 with TAS 4, NSW 2 and SA 1. Lowest national total for several weeks.

Great news in QLD.

 

[burmans]

In the absence of more control over the virus, I opine that having a crack at elimination has to be an option given our brilliant progress to date.
We have already shut the country down at significant cost.. a bit longer offers a significant reward if it works.
Functional elimination means we gain a lot of individual freedom and relative safety and also allows business to get back to normal.
The cost down the track is mainly heavy border controls over ingress and egress and a significant cost and time factor for the process.

So I'll be cynical in response to your cynicism. If we can't have confidence in our testing regime how can we possibly have confidence that elimination has worked. How are you suggesting we verify we have eliminated the virus?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So I'll be cynical in response to your cynicism. If we can't have confidence in our testing regime how can we possibly have confidence that elimination has worked. How are you suggesting we verify we have eliminated the virus?

I any one week yes you will not know, but after a month or so you will know.

If we have not eliminated CV19 then hospitalisations and maybe deaths (with very ow numbers there may only be occasional deaths) will show up. With hospitalisation you will have repeated tests. Plus they can follow up with the antibody test.

Plus even if the tests are not 100% accurate most will be, and so you will get positive tests.

So say if in over a month ( ie 2 to 3 incubation cycles) you get no positive tests, no hospitalisations and no deaths you can be pretty sure that CV19 has been eradicated.

 

[Pushka]

So say if in over a month ( ie 2 to 3 incubation cycles) you get no positive tests, no hospitalisations and no deaths you can be pretty sure that CV19 has been eradicated.

I got the feeling listening to the SA Medical spokesperson today that they mentioned that we will just need to learn to manage the virus and keep infection and hospitalisation rates as low as possible especially as we start to release restrictions. SA schools going back on Monday - they never closed, just many parents previously stopped sending the children to school.

Interestingly the Teachers Union is ignoring the Science and don't want the kids to return to school. Comment was made that the science is correct in their advocacy of climate change protests however.

 

[tgh]

#2 son works in the education industry and grumbled a bit about teacher expendability.
He backed the thought up with a long attributional summary of teenage kids.
Social , carefree and bulletproof , the perfect vehicle for community viral transmission.
They don't believe Covid is a high risk for them and act accordingly

 

[Pushka]

#2 son works in the education industry and grumbled a bit about teacher expendability.
He backed the thought up with a long attributional summary of teenage kids.
Social , carefree and bulletproof , the perfect vehicle for community viral transmission.
They don't believe Covid is a high risk for them and act accordingly

I think there is a divide and those who don't give a rats don't give one about anything. Those kids are already out and about in the community now. The others are very respectful and will do the correct thing. In SA community spread is less than 4.

 

[SydneySwan]

Interestingly the Teachers Union is ignoring the Science and don't want the kids to return to school. Comment was made that the science is correct in their advocacy of climate change protests however.

Just taking a leaf out of the Prime Minister's book only in reverse.

 

[Pushka]

Just taking a leaf out of the Prime Minister's book only in reverse.

Yep. Just goes to show when the shoe is on the other foot Science is first out the door. Slam. Convenient.

 

[tgh]

Pushka.. He works at a (very expensive) private school, these kids don't come from….er….there….
IIrc.. he opined that they try to get it.. but they are just so young and full of life that the message doesn't stick.

 

[Pushka]

Pushka.. He works at a (very expensive) private school, these kids don't come from….er….there….
IIrc.. he opined that they try to get it.. but they are just so young and full of life that the message doesn't stick.

Being wealthy doesn't bring a sense of responsibility. Look at those college jerks in Florida spring break.

To be honest I think this Virus is a hard concept for the younger folk to understand. They are giving up so much of what makes life important for them at their age. Likely none of them has had any first hand experience of what this virus does for their old relatives. And just maybe Australia has been too successful to terrify these kids enough.

 

[dajop]

#2 son works in the education industry and grumbled a bit about teacher expendability.
He backed the thought up with a long attributional summary of teenage kids.
Social , carefree and bulletproof , the perfect vehicle for community viral transmission.
They don't believe Covid is a high risk for them and act accordingly

With these comments in mind (specifically about teenagers) has there been any discussion of primary vs secondary schools or is it all just “schools” ? (which I’ve only seen, but haven’t followed closely). I would have thought there should at least be some discussion/debate about the merits of reopening one and not the other.

 

[Pushka]

With these comments in mind (specifically about teenagers) has there been any discussion of primary vs secondary schools or is it all just “schools” ? (which I’ve only seen, but haven’t followed closely). I would have thought there should at least be some discussion/debate about the merits of reopening one and not the other.

Not sure about other states but in SA our public schools never closed. They are about to return from April holidays on Monday.

 

[dajop]

Not sure about other states but in SA our public schools never closed. They are about to return from April holidays on Monday.

Victorian schools are "open" but parents have been asked only to send children to schools if absolutely necessary. Children attending are being supervised, but all instruction is online. 4 of my school age nieces and nephews are at school, 4 at home. For the four at school, both parents are working, and we are keeping them away from my mother (high risk group), who would normally look after them, so little choice.

 

[Pushka]

Victorian schools are "open" but parents have been asked only to send children to schools if absolutely necessary. Children attending are being supervised, but all instruction is online. 4 of my school age nieces and nephews are at school, 4 at home. For the four at school, both parents are working, and we are keeping them away from my mother (high risk group), who would normally look after them, so little choice.

Interesting way of doing it. It is the opposite here. People are being told to send their children to school.

 

[JohnM]

Interesting way of doing it. It is the opposite here. People are being told to send their children to school.

Same in WA - except that Catholic and other private schools are bucking the government advice.

Disunity within a state and between states on the school issue is, I dare say, indicative of other elements of disagreement - and perhaps looming disintegration - on the ongoing form of covid-19 management.