Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

I think its time we started making some real moves towards lifting restrictions to allow more business activity, drive demand and consumption.
Elective surgery cranking back up is a good first step.

I'm sure the government are working on this furiously on the exit strategy, because we are literally cratering the economy now, as we all know.

A vaccine may never come. We need to learn to live with this thing and the longer we are in this lock down the harder it is going to be to come out.

Those vulnerable and at risk need to be sheltered and more careful / face restrictions specific for them - but to ensure this happens we need the economy operating and others being occupied, employed and busy contributing.

If we don't do it soon, people will just begin to ignore restrictions as they wont *Feel* them justified.

 

[N860CR]

A vaccine may never come. We need to learn to live with this thing and the longer we are in this lock down the harder it is going to be to come out.

I find it incredibly irresponsible that a certain premier straight out said “this continues until a vaccine arrives”. It is highly probable we will never have a vaccine for this. People don’t seem to be grasping that concept.

The issue is that the government doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do. Want to eradicate? Well if that’s the plan, then say it is. Last I heard we were meant to be preventing the hospitals from becoming overrun... but we passed that point a long time ago and there seems to be no plan what to do next.

 

[p--and--t]

I find it incredibly irresponsible that a certain premier straight out said “this continues until a vaccine arrives”. It is highly probable we will never have a vaccine for this. People don’t seem to be grasping that concept.

The issue is that the government doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do. Want to eradicate? Well if that’s the plan, then say it is. Last I heard we were meant to be preventing the hospitals from becoming overrun... but we passed that point a long time ago and there seems to be no plan what to do next.

I think the people in power are merely a cross section of society and personalities. Some people are hoping a miracle will occur and they can eradicate it and it won't come back, others want the economy to get going and looking at the dollars.

I think the health minister is sitting in the middle saying nice coo-ing words and issuing cautions long enough for the extra ventilators to arrive and then loosen the restrictions on the basis there will be more deaths but "its manageable if the hospitals aren't overrun and the death rate is less than otherwise.

I don't think anyone has a strategy for the very elderly and exposed other than the economy can't afford to protect them. I don't think any of them are actually going for no more deaths, just something more "acceptable".

 

[jakeseven7]

I find it incredibly irresponsible that a certain premier straight out said “this continues until a vaccine arrives”. It is highly probable we will never have a vaccine for this. People don’t seem to be grasping that concept.

The issue is that the government doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do. Want to eradicate? Well if that’s the plan, then say it is. Last I heard we were meant to be preventing the hospitals from becoming overrun... but we passed that point a long time ago and there seems to be no plan what to do next.

I agree, if I hear one more 'the vaccine is on the way 12-18 months max' I think I will scream. It's an IF not a WHEN. And the efficacy of a vaccine will more than likely not be 100% anyway - it might even be around a flu level 50%! Then what?

I actually think (maybe hope) the government isn't thinking eradication - because the deputy CMO has been coming out and saying EVEN if you achieve eradication - which is highly disputed it can even happen, then what? You have a naive population. While the rest of the world goes on. Its not practical.

I do think the government strategy is just to suppress, build up our tracing, build up our quarantine resources to slam down areas (e.g. NW Tasmania) then quickly chart a course back to some semblance of normal life for most parts of the population.

And that means us all accepting a base level of cases and deaths ongoing, and a protection strategy/restrictions for the vulnerable

 

[Pushka]

I find it incredibly irresponsible that a certain premier straight out said “this continues until a vaccine arrives”. It is highly probable we will never have a vaccine for this. People don’t seem to be grasping that concept.

The issue is that the government doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do. Want to eradicate? Well if that’s the plan, then say it is. Last I heard we were meant to be preventing the hospitals from becoming overrun... but we passed that point a long time ago and there seems to be no plan what to do next.

The Govt has consistently said that elimination is not an option. It has denied when questioned about that.

What is clear is that the Federal Government has a consistent message but is loathe/unable to enforce that amongst all states; and some states have gone off on a tangent to the Fed Government directions. SA has consistently taken the lead from the Federal Government with only a degree of tweaking. In SA we pretty much understand everything that’s on the table. We didn’t drop down to 2 people but kept to 10. Schools stayed open. Beaches weren’t closed. We did somewhat close our border. Doing fine. So far.

 

[drron]

International travel will begin before we have a vaccine.People just don't realise the risks that many on here have taken in the past.

back to the flu.If you have had the fluvax but travel to the Northern Hemisphere during say September to March you are not fully protected.The flu virus in the northern hemisphere winter is almost certainly a new mutation and likely not covered by a vaccine to the previous winter's virus.And 600000 people around the world die each year from the flu.
And with the flu it is not just us dinosaurs at high risk but pregnant women,young children,children with neurologic disease and asthmatics.

People at Increased Risk for Flu Complications

Learn more about who is at higher risk of developing potentially serious flu complications.

www.cdc.gov

And having had the relevant vaccine doesn't mean you won't get the flu or die of the flu.It does significantly reduce the chances though.Also for the flu there is good evidence for some antivirals to reduce the severity of the disease if given early.

CDC Newsroom

Press releases, advisories, telebriefings, transcripts and archives.

www.cdc.gov

So risk free travel from the corona virus is almost certainly not going to happen even with a vaccine and effective treatment.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The Govt has consistently said that elimination is not an option. It has denied when questioned about that.

What is clear is that the Federal Government has a consistent message but is loathe/unable to enforce that amongst all states; and some states have gone off on a tangent to the Fed Government directions. SA has consistently taken the lead from the Federal Government with only a degree of tweaking. In SA we pretty much understand everything that’s on the table. We didn’t drop down to 2 people but kept to 10. Schools stayed open. Beaches weren’t closed. We did somewhat close our border. Doing fine. So far.

As of April 20, Tasmania has the highest number of cases per 100,000 residents, followed by NSW, then a fair gap to SA with ACT only just lower, then a gap to WA, VIC, QLD and then way lower than anyone else NT.

SA does has a high rate of testing. But then again testing has shown that there is not a high rate of community spread and there does not seem to be within Australia any correlation between testing rate and case rate.

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Australia passes 10,000 coronavirus deaths

Australia has officially recorded more than 10,000 COVID deaths in total, with 4,000 of those recorded in Victoria. Here's what the latest data shows.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Pushka]

As of April 20, Tasmania has the highest number of cases per 100,000 residents, followed by NSW, then a fair gap to SA with ACT only just lower, then a gap to WA, VIC, QLD and then way lower than anyone else NT.

SA does has a high rate of testing. But then again testing has shown that there is not a high rate of community spread and there does not seem to be within Australia any correlation between testing rate and case rate.

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Australia passes 10,000 coronavirus deaths

Australia has officially recorded more than 10,000 COVID deaths in total, with 4,000 of those recorded in Victoria. Here's what the latest data shows.

www.abc.net.au

It's really good to see that NT is in a strong position on those graphs.
Re elimination - I did read today that one definition of elimination from one of the disease experts was not that the virus is never detected again, but rather, as soon as it is detected then there is a significant effort to stop community spread from that one case.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's really good to see that NT is in a strong position on those graphs.
Re elimination - I did read today that one definition of elimination from one of the disease experts was not that the virus is never detected again, but rather, as soon as it is detected then there is a significant effort to stop community spread from that one case.

Another definition of eradication to be declared is zero new cases (infections) for two incubation periods. So in the case of CV 19 zero cases for a month.

Obviously if it somehow came back (ie say from crew off a air freighter or ship) after that you start again.

 

[Pushka]

Another definition of eradication to be declared is zero new cases (infections) for two incubation periods. So in the case of CV 19 zero cases for a month.

Obviously if it somehow came back (ie say from crew off a air freighter or ship) after that you start again.

I think that definition is set up to fail because as you say, just one new infection and it's like a set back. I'm not sure that socially this is a good thing. The definition I saw earlier is much more palatable to the population.

 

[moa999]

think that definition is set up to fail because as you say, just one new infection and it's like a set back.

With proper tracing though presumably you could do it on a by suburb basis for example in the bigger cities.

 

[Pushka]

With proper tracing though presumably you could do it on a by suburb basis for example in the bigger cities.

Yes, they will do that of course but I think right now terminology to Joe Public is important. To say we've eradicated it then (and we will) get another few positives then that might disillusion too much.

No positives today in SA. 90% are recovered, just 4 in hospital and 2 in ICU. Rest at home in isolation.

The twenty something who had travelled overseas a few weeks ago, stayed well, but then felt unwell said it was her loss of taste and smell that was most noticeable. This loss seems quite common amongst the young people who don't become very unwell.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

With proper tracing though presumably you could do it on a by suburb basis for example in the bigger cities.

Exactly. with cases so low now already the government already has the resources to blitz if required an location where there is any new case (infection ) showing up.

ie

• More testing in that area
• Contact tracing...including the new ap, but not relying on it
• Even cautionarly expansion of self-isolation in that area/workplace

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think that definition is set up to fail because

Not really as the virus is only in its contagious phase for a period of time. It has to be passed on within that period of time, or it dies out. Once all carriers are out of the incubation period (plus a few days to allow for any virus on hard surfaces) without passing it on then it is gone. It is eradicated.

It cannot just reappear by itself as it does not lie dormant. It has to be in a host and be passed from host to host. No baton change = no virus.

It can only come back then by being re-introduced from carriers outside of the zone. It has already been eradicated in Greenland. Someone may fly in with it and start it again, but that does not alter the fact that it was eradicated in the first place.

The double period is probably due to there being some asymptomatic carriers and/or mild cases who do not seek treatment. Make it three to be cautious.

Plus now they having the testing capacity to test all those with flu like symptoms. Early on this group of people were only asked to self-isolate and so human nature be in what it is not all would have been diligent.

 

[nutwood]

As of April 20, Tasmania has the highest number of cases per 100,000 residents, followed by NSW, then a fair gap to SA with ACT only just lower, then a gap to WA, VIC, QLD and then way lower than anyone else NT.

SA does has a high rate of testing. But then again testing has shown that there is not a high rate of community spread and there does not seem to be within Australia any correlation between testing rate and case rate.

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Australia passes 10,000 coronavirus deaths

Australia has officially recorded more than 10,000 COVID deaths in total, with 4,000 of those recorded in Victoria. Here's what the latest data shows.

www.abc.net.au

Tasmania had/has very low testing rates. Could it be conjectured that very low testing rates result in nasty surprises? Tassie was doing very well until the NW cluster happened.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Tasmania had/has very low testing rates. Could it be conjectured that very low testing rates result in nasty surprises? Tassie was doing very well until the NW cluster happened.

I think it is more that a cluster of that size has skewed the results in a small population state.

 

[jakeseven7]

I think it is more that a cluster of that size has skewed the results in a small population state.

And the ability of the government to isolate and quarantine a part of a state has been really well demonstrated with NW Tasmania.

This is important as they will need to do this as the start easing restrictions to get the economy moving again in 3 weeks.

 

[Pushka]

So in effect, Australia is in a good place to deal with this now we have shut down. And can manage outbreaks that occur.

 

[nutwood]

And the ability of the government to isolate and quarantine a part of a state has been really well demonstrated with NW Tasmania.

This is important as they will need to do this as the start easing restrictions to get the economy moving again in 3 weeks.

Australia as a country is very well positioned to do this. Some areas are obviously more tricky than others but we have a lot of towns surrounded by essentially empty country.

 

[RooFlyer]

Tasmania had/has very low testing rates.

At least until the past 4 days or so, where the rate was greatly accelerated and the per capita rate approached the national average. Vast majority of the tests in NW Tas.


Source: ABC

I always wondered why the testing numbers were so low in Tas. Surely the pool of testing kits is national, not state-limited?