Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Between cruise ships, nursing homes, this facility and what is happening in Singapore with worker dormitories it seems "communal" living poses the greatest risk to individuals and to creating clusters, at this point in time.

Anywhere high density increases the risk. ie New York City.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

With the Vic cases too the critical point is that none of the new cases are believed to be community transmissions from unknown sources. It is unkown community transmissions that can have the number of cars spiral out of control again.

So far today there does not seem to have been any unkown community transmissions cases reported anywhere in Australia.

So most of the current cases reported in Australia are good in that it indicates that things are mainly contained and should continue to thus decrease in number (I am ignoring any spikes that may later come due to people arriving from outside of Australia and into quarantine).

 

[Pushka]

And a positive in WA today is linked to a cruise ship where passengers arrived in late March. So potentially another isolation failure.

WA records one new case of COVID-19, linked to cruise ship from Rome

The latest case is linked to passengers from the Costa Luminosa cruise ship, who returned to Perth from Rome in late March.

www.abc.net.au

 

[nutwood]

If we're looking at this being a long term problem, we should be looking at long term solutions.

Long term solutions should be considered on a risk management basis and as soon as you move down this path, you have to consider what is an acceptable failure rate.

If 1 in 10 people are not capable of self isolating correctly and 1 in 10 of people arriving from overseas are carrying the virus, you could combine this with a potential 1 in 5 risk of their isolation transgressions spreading it and you end up with a 1 in 500 chance that an overseas arrival, self isolating, will cause a cluster. Not very good odds, all things considered.

Introduce good policing and follow up checks, it seems reasonable that you could drop that isolation failure to 1 in 50, possibly better. Good scrutiny, testing and discussion with the incoming traveller could easily drop that risk that they're infected to 1 in 100. That brings you back to 1 in 25,000 that they'll spread it.

Generally 1 in 100,000 is considered acceptable in industry, but that's for fatality, not spreading a virus. Last I heard MVA's were at 1 in 14,000 but we still drive. Hence the question; what's acceptable?

Considering it this way may seem pedantic but we're fighting a mathematical situation.

Unfortunately, the worst people to be handling this are politicians. They can do the maths better than most but their sums include a lot of factors that straight public health benefit equations do not!

 

[p--and--t]

We all have different opinions of what coulda shoulda woulda, and have opinions on how our pollies are handling things (thank goodness - that's how a democracy works) but at least we don't have to contend with this...

As Coronavirus Spreads, Poison Hotlines See Rise in Accidents With Cleaning Products (Published 2020)

A new study suggests a link between the increase and recommendations to clean and disinfect.

www.nytimes.com

Trump's COVID-19 Disinfectant Ideas Horrify Health Experts

U.S. President Donald Trump's musings on whether injecting disinfectants might treat COVID-19 horrified medical professionals on Friday and raised fresh concerns that his stream-of-consciousness briefings could push frightened people to poison themselves with untested treatments.

www.nytimes.com

‘Don’t Try This at Home’: Even ‘Fox & Friends’ Balked at Trump’s Advice (Published 2020)

Fox News anchors conceded that injecting disinfectant would be “poisonous.” But Rush Limbaugh and Breitbart defended Trump.

www.nytimes.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And a positive in WA today is linked to a cruise ship where passengers arrived in late March. So potentially another isolation failure.

I note they say

linked to the Costa Luminosa cruise ship

rather than

linked to a Costa Luminosa cruise ship passenger


So that could be anyone who processed the passengers, flew with them, transported them, supervised them at Rottnest Island (if they went there and not the hotel), examined them, tested them...or it could be someone that mixed with one of the passengers. Or it could also be a passenger.

 

[N860CR]

Considering it this way may seem pedantic but we're fighting a mathematical situation.

Spot on. But it’s very hard to do in Australia. As a country, we are usually shielded from major catastrophic events that cause loss of life, so the community as a whole does not really “accept” death. The only number of deaths (so call that infections) people would consider acceptable is 0. We will ignore all the other issues that come up (including many more deaths in the long run) because as soon as the media reports “Coronavirus death” (even if it’s a 99 year old who was already dying of a respiratory condition), we’ll consider it to be the end of the world.

Politicians need to stop reporting death/infection numbers as they will be the only numbers Australians look at. Everything else is irrelevant in their eyes.

 

[moa999]

NSW with 12 cases (highest in a week) including a staff member in a Blue Mountains nursing home.
Worse 6 are unknown sources.

Also while not Aus, appears Covid-19 is causing heart attacks in younger people overseas

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

 

[RooFlyer]

Unfortunately, the worst people to be handling this are politicians. They can do the maths better than most but their sums include a lot of factors that straight public health benefit equations do not!

Yes, and thank goodness for that. A 'straight public health benefit equation' would have everyone locked down, no-one working and national borders closed until the virus is eliminated globally. Hotel quarantine would be there least of our worries.

I'd suggest you stand in the next election to set 'em right, but then you'd become a politician and therefore useless

 

[SydneySwan]

Politicians need to stop reporting death/infection numbers as they will be the only numbers Australians look at. Everything else is irrelevant in their eyes.

I agree. And this is going to sound extremely harsh but the next step is to not focus on the deaths. We are given the person's age, which aged care facility they were living at, which hospital they died at, etc. If we are going to move on we need to treat the deaths in the same way as flu deaths are treated - as a statistic.

One of my uncles died last Sunday in the UK of COVID in an aged care facility. He was 87 and had other health issues so his death was not unexpected. I told my aunt that here we receive a lot of details about each death. This doesn't happen in the UK (given the terrible numbers) and she doesn't even know if my uncle is actually included in the totals.

I am ducking for cover now in case anyone feels like giving me both barrels.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I agree. And this is going to sound extremely harsh but the next step is to not focus on the deaths. We are given the person's age, which aged care facility they were living at, which hospital they died at, etc. If we are going to move on we need to treat the deaths in the same way as flu deaths are treated - as a statistic.

One of my uncles died last Sunday in the UK of COVID in an aged care facility. He was 87 and had other health issues so his death was not unexpected. I told my aunt that here we receive a lot of details about each death. This doesn't happen in the UK (given the terrible numbers) and she doesn't even know if my uncle is actually included in the totals.

I am ducking for cover now in case anyone feels like giving me both barrels.

I can assure you that your uncle who died in the aged care facility is not included in the UK Covid deaths.
They only include in-hospital mortality.
The problem with Australia is that we are actually doing a lot better than we thought we would.
My condolences on the loss of your uncle.
This graph is pretty accurate for us here in Australia right now

 

[Quickstatus]

So far still less than the average 3000 seats pa from influenza..

 

[p--and--t]

I agree. And this is going to sound extremely harsh but the next step is to not focus on the deaths. We are given the person's age, which aged care facility they were living at, which hospital they died at, etc. If we are going to move on we need to treat the deaths in the same way as flu deaths are treated - as a statistic.

One of my uncles died last Sunday in the UK of COVID in an aged care facility. He was 87 and had other health issues so his death was not unexpected. I told my aunt that here we receive a lot of details about each death. This doesn't happen in the UK (given the terrible numbers) and she doesn't even know if my uncle is actually included in the totals.

I am ducking for cover now in case anyone feels like giving me both barrels.

Let's agree to disagree.

I agree eventual death is not preventable by anyone (except on TV). We all will all die that is a certainty.

But for example a heart attack in your sleep is not quite the same as major lung impairment & not being able to breathe in a hospital isolation ward.

Everyone leaves behind someone who grieves for them and in this case dying alone with no familiar support, struggling to be able to breathe. It would, for me, have to be along with perhaps drowning alone in the ocean, the most terrifying and saddening death.

I'm sure medicos can come up with other terrible scenarios besides Covid-19. However we all have our own individual hopes and fears.

I feel even more saddened that some people would be considered expendable to suit another person's financial gain. Eg US

 

[tgh]

So far still less than the average 3000 seats pa from influenza..

Add in covid and we get a minimum of double the deaths pa and fill up our hospitals to overflow trying to save mid level infections

 

[Quickstatus]

My point is that no one batted an eyelid with 3000 pa deaths last year from influenza. Hospitals basically overwhelmed every winter but I don’t recall any concern from anyone.

 

[p--and--t]

My point is that no one batted an eyelid with 3000 pa deaths last year from influenza. Hospitals basically overwhelmed every winter but I don’t recall any concern from anyone.

I would argue at least one to many people would have been greatly saddened by every single one of those 3000 deaths. Just because it wasn't one of your relatives does not translate to no "concern from anyone"

 

[Princess Fiona]

My point is that no one batted an eyelid with 3000 pa deaths last year from influenza. Hospitals basically overwhelmed every winter but I don’t recall any concern from anyone.

Hospitals aren’t overwhelmed every winter.
This is nothing like seasonal Flu.

 

[Pushka]

My point is that no one batted an eyelid with 3000 pa deaths last year from influenza. Hospitals basically overwhelmed every winter but I don’t recall any concern from anyone.

Just maybe flu is preventable through immunisation so there is a sense of having done everything possible to combat it. And we have to live with it, just like the road toll.

 

[Quickstatus]

Correct. It’s an unknown but highly infectious virus - more than influenza.
However it seems that 3000 influenza per year is OK

I would say that hospitals are overwhelmed in winter when emergency waiting lists balloon to over 8 hours, surgeries get postponed due to lack of ICU, and lack of blood because donors drop off because they are sick.

....

Just maybe flu is preventable through immunisation

Not preventable for the 3000 who die every year. They also tend to be the vulnerable and elderly. No one cared then. A bit hypocritical when Covid hits closer to home?

 

[Quickstatus]

I would argue at least one to many people

Not really at a community level or government level.
Imagine how many of the 3000 would have been saved had there been better public health measures like current measures.

My guess is that this year the flu season may be the best ever. Makes us feel better I’m sure but, if true, doesn’t say something about the lack of action re last year’s influenza mortality?