Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[RooFlyer]

Robert Gottleibsen noting that the Victorian second wave is Australia's worst industrial accident (under the definition in Victorian law).

Worksafe Victoria should be investigating under laws brought in by Steve Bracks. Worksafe has much greater powers than the hotel inquiry and can bring (or recommend) prosecutions of any person, in government or without).

Under the Bracks act, any citizen can request a prosecution and WorkSafe must either recommend prosecution - or give reasons for not prosecuting. Already four ministers and 16 public servants are on the list where answers must be given. But seven months have passed and if processes gets drawn out into 2021 then my fears of a cover up will grow worse. I emphasise that this may not be the case. And of course if people are prosecuted does not mean they are guilty.

As I noted before, if a private company did something that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people- say, it hired dodgy tradies whose work resulted in poison leaking into a water supply - would anyone think that the CEO or Chief Scientist or those involved in the decisions that resulted in the poison leak would still be in their jobs, and not stood down pending criminal investigation / WorkSafe inquiry? Think about it. If the Board said "Oh, we've hired a retired judge to do an investigation under our terms of reference", would everyone be fine with that? Would there would be a #I stand with Algernon twitter stuff? Would people be saying "Oh, it was the Federal Government's responsibility to oversee the TAFE training of tradies - looky there..."

And now the hotels inquiry is reporting on 21 December. Oh, just before Christmas. That's even better than the "Aged care is a federal responsibility" smokescreen being run.

 

[RAM]

Robert Gottleibsen noting that the Victorian second wave is Australia's worst industrial accident (under the definition in Victorian law).

Worksafe Victoria should be investigating under laws brought in by Steve Bracks. Worksafe has much greater powers than the hotel inquiry and can bring (or recommend) prosecutions of any person, in government or without).

Under the Bracks act, any citizen can request a prosecution and WorkSafe must either recommend prosecution - or give reasons for not prosecuting. Already four ministers and 16 public servants are on the list where answers must be given. But seven months have passed and if processes gets drawn out into 2021 then my fears of a cover up will grow worse. I emphasise that this may not be the case. And of course if people are prosecuted does not mean they are guilty.

As I noted before, if a private company did something that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people- say, it hired dodgy tradies whose work resulted in poison leaking into a water supply - would anyone think that the CEO or Chief Scientist or those involved in the decisions that resulted in the poison leak would still be in their jobs, and not stood down pending criminal investigation / WorkSafe inquiry? Think about it. If the Board said "Oh, we've hired a retired judge to do an investigation under our terms of reference", would everyone be fine with that? Would there would be a #I stand with Algernon twitter stuff? Would people be saying "Oh, it was the Federal Government's responsibility to oversee the TAFE training of tradies - looky there..."

And now the hotels inquiry is reporting on 21 December. Oh, just before Christmas. That's even better than the "Aged care is a federal responsibility" smokescreen being run.

Am I missing something?

The inquiry found based on the genetic testing of the virus from people infected that the initial out break that led to over 90% of all Victorian case had nothing to do with the security guards.

Just to repeat it as so many commentators seem to keep forgetting that it had nothing to do with the security guards.

The outbreak was traced to the full-time (professional) hotel manager who chaperoned the Dept of Health personnel & others to & into the room that was occupied by a mother and 3 children. Some of the occupants had spread human waste over many different sites within the hotel room. The hotel manager became infected with the identical strain as the occupants of that room had and (unknowingly) passed it on to several others...

So it had nothing to do with the security guards.

Meanwhile, to continue the 'dodgy tradie' line - Gladys awarded the majority of the NSW Hotel Quarantine contract to the same private security company mentioned in such disparaging terms (seemingly well deserved due t0 lack of training etc). So it seems that both Gladys & Dan must have the same 'mates' does it not?

 

[RooFlyer]

The inquiry found based on the genetic testing of the virus from people infected that the initial out break that led to over 90% of all Victorian case had nothing to do with the security guards.

Just to repeat it as so many commentators seem to keep forgetting that it had nothing to do with the security guards.

So it had nothing to do with the security guards.

Say again?

I'm not sure what exactly has or hasn't "to do with the security guards" in the sense you mention (3 times). Were they alleged to be carriers? But I have heard that some hundreds of people died as a result of the Corona Virus escaping from hotel quarantine organised by the Victorian government and supervised (or not) by some security guards.

More seriously, I reckon for the sake of the hundreds of dead and their families, the whole incident need to be investigated thoroughly and properly and not by some inquiry appointed by and with terms of reference given by the same government whose members and officers is the one primarily the object of investigation, and who sorta forgot to ask for phone records until a journalist goaded them into it (and who was and still is being vilified for her trouble). For the same reason I'm dismayed by the "look at the aged care sector .. Federal responsibility" smokescreens being laid all over the place.

Hopefully I don't need to repeat all that two more times, bolded, for emphasis.

 

[tgh]

Must say I am enjoying Roof_lyers inquisition .. keep up the good work ...

 

[drron]

Am I missing something?

The inquiry found based on the genetic testing of the virus from people infected that the initial out break that led to over 90% of all Victorian case had nothing to do with the security guards.

Just to repeat it as so many commentators seem to keep forgetting that it had nothing to do with the security guards.

The outbreak was traced to the full-time (professional) hotel manager who chaperoned the Dept of Health personnel & others to & into the room that was occupied by a mother and 3 children. Some of the occupants had spread human waste over many different sites within the hotel room. The hotel manager became infected with the identical strain as the occupants of that room had and (unknowingly) passed it on to several others...

So it had nothing to do with the security guards.

Meanwhile, to continue the 'dodgy tradie' line - Gladys awarded the majority of the NSW Hotel Quarantine contract to the same private security company mentioned in such disparaging terms (seemingly well deserved due t0 lack of training etc). So it seems that both Gladys & Dan must have the same 'mates' does it not?

No they didn't find the security guards had nothing to do with the outbreak.They found that the Rydges manager may have been the index case because he was the first to test positive.They did not find that he was the one that introduced it to the community.The CHO has said it was due to the large families involved and often with English as a second language.That sounds to me more like the security guards than the Rydges manager.Many of the security guards at Rydges tested positive to Covid in Late May.

You also left out a vital piece of information as to NSW's use of private security.
"Private security companies, including Unified, were also used in NSW hotel quarantine, but private security guards in Sydney were overseen by police or Border Force officials in each hotel. In Victoria, the government decided against using police or defence force personnel, and there remains considerable confusion in public service ranks and security companies about which department had ultimate responsibility. "

Hiring security guards 'an attempt at social inclusion'

A Department of Jobs official has been removed as another describes the "crazy weekend" setting up hotel quarantine.

www.theage.com.au

And no workers at Sydney hotels had tested positive to Covid

"In NSW for example, the state government deployed ADF personnel to run hotel quarantine and no workers at quarantine hotels in NSW have tested positive to COVID-19.

Other states have deployed troops and police in their hotel quarantine, sometimes alongside security."

Victorian government gambled on private contractors, says expert

When it came to a critical decision that has ultimately plunged Victoria into a coronavirus nightmare, the State Government should have seen the writing on the wall.

www.news.com.au

 

[Austman]

Other states have deployed troops and police in their hotel quarantine, sometimes alongside security

But drron, would that have made a difference? Could you kindly explain it?

It seems, to me at least, that the main reasons for the for failure of Victorian hotel quarantine program were for medical reasons. Not security reasons. There was poor medical supervision, poor medical basic training, poor medical equipment (PPE) etc. Or is that incorrect also?

I do know that security guard carpooling and possibly having second jobs has been mentioned. But the last time I noticed, the defence force and police tended to use shared transport too. Would using defence force and police to provide security have made the difference without the medical supervision, training and equipment requirements?

 

[Princess Fiona]

No they didn't find the security guards had nothing to do with the outbreak.They found that the Rydges manager may have been the index case because he was the first to test positive.They did not find that he was the one that introduced it to the community.The CHO has said it was due to the large families involved and often with English as a second language.That sounds to me more like the security guards than the Rydges manager.Many of the security guards at Rydges tested positive to Covid in Late May.

You also left out a vital piece of information as to NSW's use of private security.
"Private security companies, including Unified, were also used in NSW hotel quarantine, but private security guards in Sydney were overseen by police or Border Force officials in each hotel. In Victoria, the government decided against using police or defence force personnel, and there remains considerable confusion in public service ranks and security companies about which department had ultimate responsibility. "

Hiring security guards 'an attempt at social inclusion'

A Department of Jobs official has been removed as another describes the "crazy weekend" setting up hotel quarantine.

www.theage.com.au

And no workers at Sydney hotels had tested positive to Covid

"In NSW for example, the state government deployed ADF personnel to run hotel quarantine and no workers at quarantine hotels in NSW have tested positive to COVID-19.

Other states have deployed troops and police in their hotel quarantine, sometimes alongside security."

Victorian government gambled on private contractors, says expert

When it came to a critical decision that has ultimately plunged Victoria into a coronavirus nightmare, the State Government should have seen the writing on the wall.

www.news.com.au

I concur with what you are saying but just to clarify one point.
A hotel security guard in Sydney did contract Covid-19.
AFAIK this did not cause a cluster.
NSW Health August 2020

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I concur with what you are saying but just to clarify one point.
A hotel security guard in Sydney did contract Covid-19.
AFAIK this did not cause a cluster.
NSW Health August 2020

yes and that Security Guard then worked while positive at other locations including a shopping centre.

Plus I think interstate that even the police were in one case shown to have done the wrong thing. And an ADF Member while quarantining had a female guest stay overnight.

NZ has had multiple breaches.

Plus in Vic.

• 3 quarantine leaks
• 1 virtually no cases
• 1 a small number of cases
• 1 was the source of most of the second wave (Index case may have been the night manager and not security guards).
  • One reason why this was much larger than the other two was that a super-spreader was involved early on
  • Another reason was that unlike the first wave it was into quite different demographics than before -Many of these clusters were then linked to large families living in crowded conditions =much larger R0.
  • Compounding this was that many were also in low paid jobs with no paid sick leave and / or more distrust in authorities. So less people present for testing, or if tested actually isolate.
  • Then with growing cases contact tracing got overwhelmed. Was not up to scratch, but even good systems cannot handled that many cases per day (ie Think about the number of people involved for third ring around 700 new daily caes).

In addition as I posted a while back while many are concerned with the hiring of security guards, they have worked in all jurisdictions, the bigger problem for mine was that no one person/organisation seemed to be managing and was responsible for the whole hotel quarantine process. Without that central responsibility/management things fall through the cracks such as infection control, PPE training etc etc.

That is not to say that the way the Security Contracts were not done poorly as they were badly done in multiple ways, but rather it was only one of a number of issues some of which were chance. Some were bad management by the Vic Gov. Some was the public not doing the right thing for a number of reasons (and pleasingly there are now many responses in place to mitigate such behaviours).

 

[jakeseven7]

Another 0 day for Victoria.

And very good testing rates for the Monday ‘long weekend’ almost 13k

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Melbourne acquired another mystery case??

 

[jakeseven7]

Melbourne acquired another mystery case??

No - already known it is a historic case reported and discussed yesterday, in today’s number and CHO says very low risk to spread.

‘There are no 'red flags' with these cases, with all close contacts testing negative and two of the cases possibly historical or resolved. Will probably add to our mystery cases but doesn't materially change risk’

 

[lovetravellingoz]

No - already known it is a historic case reported and discussed yesterday, in today’s number and CHO says very low risk to spread.

‘There are no 'red flags' with these cases, with all close contacts testing negative and two of the cases possibly historical or resolved. Will probably add to our mystery cases but doesn't materially change risk’

Yes, that was tweeted by Sutton yesterday.

From the data tables the "new" unknown case has been assigned to the 29th Oct.




It will have been one of these two cases:


One is a man who tested positive in August. An Expert Review Panel is reviewing this case to determine whether this is a new infection or shedding of old non-infectious virus.

One is a man whose partner tested positive in August. Investigations are under way into whether this is a new infection or whether the man contracted coronavirus from his partner many weeks ago, and his positive test represents shedding of old non-infectious virus.

So hence Sutton's comment "doesn't materially change risk’"

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think NSW had a similar situation at least once before. It might have been better (in both States) not to recorded it as a mystery case these two weeks, but more than4 weeks ago if that’s what they thought. Am I right in recalling that Vic already don’t record some old/low readings as new cases for the purposes of the 14-day rolling average?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW 1 local case linked to existing case/cluster, 2 from international quarantine

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 1 in the past 7 days
- 0 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the period 15-28 days
- 33 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

Not sure what is happening because there were 3 cases that still should be in the 15-28 day period.

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 1 in the past 7 days
- 0 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the period 15-28 days
- 33 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So no change over the past 3 days - since Saturday.

 

[dajop]

Am I right in recalling that Vic already don’t record some old/low readings as new cases for the purposes of the 14-day rolling average?

They do record them initially, but IIRC are reviewed by an expert panel and may be removed if deemed to be low levels from an infection acquired much earlier.

 

[dajop]

It looks like the number of active cases in Victoria is now the lowest since they started recording active cases on March 19, and first time since February that 4 days in a row have been recorded without a new case*

Active COVID-19 cases in Victoria are now the lowest since pandemic began

Victoria has again recorded no new cases or deaths from coronavirus, earning praise from the state's Chief Health Officer on Cup Day: "This is the quaddie we want."

www.theage.com.au

* I would add the proviso that records up to end of March don't break up imported cases, so probably it's safe to actually conclude first time since some time in March that there has been 4 days in a row without a new locally transmitted case.

 

[Lynda2475]

From SMH.com.au:




Over the past fortnight, there have been 27 locally acquired coronavirus cases confirmed in Victoria (resulting in a 14-day average of 1.9) and 13 locally acquired cases confirmed in New South Wales (meaning the 14-day average is 0.9).

At the start of last month, Victoria had a 14-day average of about 16, now its 14-day average is 1.9, which is roughly where New South Wales was at one week ago.

There have been two mystery cases (infections that cannot be traced to a known outbreak) confirmed in Victoria over the past fortnight, compared with one in New South Wales.

While New South Wales has recorded more cases overall, the bulk of them have been overseas travellers in hotel quarantine:

 

[RooFlyer]

Tasmania confirmes border with NSW opening this Friday Nov. 6. That is, entry without quarantine .

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Am I right in recalling that Vic already don’t record some old/low readings as new cases for the purposes of the 14-day rolling average?

Ok as best I understand how cases are reported in ViC:

• .All new daily cases are reported each day and these going into the rolling 14 day average calculation.
• Some will be retested and will have been false positives and the cases will reclassified cases total is amended. ie Today was zero daily cases but cases went down by one (ie minus one) due to a reclassification. Sometimes a negative will become a positive, and the case total will increase.
• Some may not be classified till 48hrs.
  • So while they may be in the daily case figures they are not in the mystery case totals.
  • If by 48 hours they are not classified as known, they become classified as unknown (mystery cases). They may later be reclassified as known, and one certainly sees that in the data.
  • There is a further category of cases that have very low virus levels and where the person has previously had Covid 19. These are not necessarily classified at 48 hours and often seem to take an extra two days (ie 96 hours) to be classified, They are referred to an expert committee for review and presumably they are also delayed as they await genomic sequencing to see if they (the test samples) are from the same strain for each "infection". They are also retested in cases it was false positive, as are all mystery cases. Note that swabs cannot also grow viruses to allow genomic sequencing to occur. If they are not certain it is a re-infection they will go with the cautious approach and deem it to be a mystery case even if they have good reasons to suspect it has not been.

With the last two mystery cases in Victoria from what I have read so far (today's report final not yet out) they most likely are reinfections and are not true mystery cases. So community risk is extremely low. There most likely has not been a "true" mystery cases in Victoria for over two weeks now.

The last mystery case outside the rolling 14 day period was on 19th October and I note in today's data that mystery case has now been reclassified (ie is now a known).

It was said of that case at the time

Of today’s four new cases, one is a case who previously tested positive in July and further investigation is under way.​

So this is similar in description to the current two mystery cases in the current rolling 14 day period.




So looking back further the last "true" mystery cases probably was on the 15th October nineteen days ago..