Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

PS. With Victoria's' last 3 mystery cases even if they remain mystery cases all 3 had very low virus levels at time of testing and were most likely not contagious at that time, nor for a period prior to there swab. This is good news.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

PSS

The daily DHHS report is now out and this had a little more detail on the latest mystery case. I note that it has been classified as a mystery case but that this classification is pending further testing (possibly genomic sequencing).

There is one new mystery case in Victoria in the postcode 3023, the suburbs of Deer Park, Caroline Springs, Cairnlea, Burnside, Burnside Heights and Ravenhall.​

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This case was notified on 30 October and has been under investigation by the Department. All close contacts have been identified, isolated and have tested negative. There are 22 people currently isolating who are linked to this case.​

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This case is being managed as a new infection pending further testing. The addition of this new mystery case does not materially change the risk of further COVID spread in Victoria.​

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[dajop]

The Victorian CHO tweeted today warning Victorians to not be complacent comparing Switzerland a few months ago (single digit cases) to now (many thousands). Many tweets replying to this were challenging him based on the weather (with Victoria now moving into summer and Switzerland the other way of course). My favourite reply was this from someone who was based in Melbourne (if from Mildura, I would have cut them some slack):



The only thing consistent about Melbourne summers are the inconsistency It could be 15 or it could be 45 , or anywhere in between. But it does show how people distort reality to support their worldview.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The Victorian CHO tweeted today warning Victorians to not be complacent comparing Switzerland a few months ago (single digit cases) to now (many thousands).

Yes saw that. For those that did not:

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The Victorian CHO tweeted today warning Victorians to not be complacent comparing Switzerland a few months ago (single digit cases) to now (many thousands). Many tweets replying to this were challenging him based on the weather (with Victoria now moving into summer and Switzerland the other way of course). My favourite reply was this from someone who was based in Melbourne (if from Mildura, I would have cut them some slack):

View attachment 232488

The only thing consistent about Melbourne summers are the inconsistency It could be 15 or it could be 45 , or anywhere in between. But it does show how people distort reality to support their worldview.

Yes saw that. For those that did not:

View attachment 232511

Would another difference be closed Australian international borders v Switzerland not (I guess)??

 

[TomVexille]

I would like to point out that the state of Florida was having 10K+ new cases a day back in July where their average temps are over 30.

 

[jakeseven7]

I would like to point out that the state of Florida was having 10K+ new cases a day back in July where their average temps are over 30.

Yes good point - but......Florida deployed basically no effort trying to control anything covid related whatsoever, they allowed huge mass gatherings of strangers and also entered their summer with case numbers that would make any state of Australia lock down for 20 years

Also if you’ve been to Florida you will know a lot of them hide indoors, together with aircon, especially the older folk and it’s a very old state. Australia is much more outdoorsy, despite the heat.

Summer is going to help Australia big time I feel but only because we are in a good position to begin with and ongoing controls.

 

[TomVexille]

Yes good point - but......Florida deployed basically no effort trying to control anything covid related whatsoever, they allowed huge mass gatherings of strangers and also entered their summer with case numbers that would make any state of Australia lock down for 20 years

Also if you’ve been to Florida you will know a lot of them hide indoors, together with aircon, especially the older folk and it’s a very old state. Australia is much more outdoorsy, despite the heat.

Summer is going to help Australia big time I feel but only because we are in a good position to begin with and ongoing controls.

Your last sentence is the key. As you could probably tell, I'm pointing out that you can't just assume that summer will kill the virus.

 

[dajop]

I would like to point out that the state of Florida was having 10K+ new cases a day back in July where their average temps are over 30.

Yes indeed. As has been Texas. And nearly all of India for most of the last 6 months. And Indonesia. And Philippines. Summer alone does not equal virus control. But referring back to my original post:

But it does show how people distort reality to support their worldview.

Reading some of the comments on twitter, these summer examples are part of the broad push now for Victoria to stop with compulsory masks, further relax restrictions etc., and there's a perception that Europe lull between waves was due to summer.

 

[jb747]

My favourite reply was this from someone who was based in Melbourne (if from Mildura, I would have cut them some slack):

View attachment 232488

He’s asking a question. Why should he need an slack. The answer could be that there is no advantage at all.

The only thing consistent about Melbourne summers are the inconsistency It could be 15 or it could be 45 , or anywhere in between. But it does show how people distort reality to support their worldview.

I wonder if your own world view isn’t viewing all of Victoria based on Melbourne’s weather. The top half is consistently pretty hot....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Also I think yesterday was the day that a lot of the remaining people who were in isolation had their second (day 11 ) swabs.

 

[Gremlin]

Also I think yesterday was the day that a lot of the remaining people who were in isolation had their second (day 11 ) swabs.

Does that mean those results are in here? Or they will be processed and in tomorrow's results?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Does that mean those results are in here? Or they will be processed and in tomorrow's results?

If they were swabbed yesterday will have been in today's results.

From memory they said that with test results now that one third are back within 12 hrs and 96% within 24 hrs. So you would imagine people in isolation would be with the 12 hrs group.

 

[RAM]

Yes good point - but......Florida deployed basically no effort trying to control anything covid related whatsoever, they allowed huge mass gatherings of strangers and also entered their summer with case numbers that would make any state of Australia lock down for 20 years

Also if you’ve been to Florida you will know a lot of them hide indoors, together with aircon, especially the older folk and it’s a very old state. Australia is much more outdoorsy, despite the heat.

Summer is going to help Australia big time I feel but only because we are in a good position to begin with and ongoing controls.

Florida is much more like Qld than people think.

For example, the summer surge into Florida numbers millions (which can be tracked quite easily by the CV age break-ups in the following weeks for the avg age) saw the normal College students equivalent to schoolies - except this can go on for 5 or 6 weeks.

If you think back the pictures that came out of Florida for July 4th showed teens, 20s & 30 yr olds predominantly in the pool, beach & bar parties. The CV spread throughout Florida went exponential and as the College students & wannabes went back to their home states - the CV cases across the US shot up.

Hopefully yesterday's Melb stories of the beaches etc continuing through to this morning (St Kilda etc) do not led to a resurgence given the starting point of CV in the community appears to be significantly lower than in the US on Juy 4th.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Test levels still very high in Vic. 17,358 today.

Active cases now down to only 30.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nsw 3 local case linked to known case/cluster, 6 from international quarantine

 

[moa999]

And importantly all 3 have been in isolation.

I do wonder whether in Syd/Mel we should have some form of Green/Orange/Red zones around outbreaks.

Eg. In a red zone - restaurants, gyms, indoor play centres close for 2wks, and masks compulsory.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I do wonder whether in Syd/Mel we should have some form of Green/Orange/Red zones around outbreaks.

Eg. In a red zone - restaurants, gyms, indoor play centres close for 2wks, and masks compulsory.

In Vic is currently third ring around all new cases till cleared by testing. This is the current strategy and has worked well with all new outbreaks.
I think it makes a lot more sense to isolate those who may have had contact, over just closing businesses near where they a positive contacts lives, and so expect this strategy to now be maintained.

If one of the businesses falls within third ring contact then yes those who were there have to isolate.

In Vic to mask wearing is still compulsory, and some businesses like gyms are not yet open

PS: The current two mystery cases in Vic probably really are not true mystery cases anyway.