Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[RAM]

Given the apparent lack of planning in SA - let's hope the planning for the vaccine distribution logistics is more advanced at the State & Federal Govt level.

The Washington Post has a useful piece on how Pfizer is planning to deal with the -70 C requirement. Unusually, due to mass demand, they propose to supply the vaccine in vials containing 5 doses that then needs to be diluted. Hope that the Fed Govt has been buying up single use syringes specifically for the vaccine - about 50 million when the world (developed) will be after 8 billion of them.

Maybe an email to your local Federal Politician to ensure that single use syringes can't be harvested from Australia for a particular country? Of course they wouldn't do that again would they? No, more like refuse to allow any future production to be exported to Australia to balance the refused imports (two coal carriers have been waiting off China for over 5 months now to be 'processed' & China is refusing to allow their crews to be swapped for new ones).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/?arc404=true&utm_campaign=wp_to_your_health&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

Cynic, or pragmatist - I foresee diluted doses and a massive global black market springing up as a result of this dilution. If I dilute it an extra 10% I improve my margin 3 fold, an extra 20%...



Each vial of the Pfizer vaccine holds five doses when diluted. Once thawed, the undiluted vial can be kept in a refrigerator for only five days. A diluted vial can be kept for only six hours before it must be discarded.

Now that the relatively 'good news' is above - there was a very revealing interview on ABC Newsradio between 8am-9am this morning with a vaccine expert. The interview was going along very jovially until near the end the journalist asked;
"So what do the results we've seen with 95% efficacy mean?"

Go online & listen, most new revealing information in months - if correct but sounded like it was. Listen to the tone change.

Paraphrasing - it seems that (unstated in the interests of speed & lowering costs) the volunteers for the various vaccine trials are not being physically tested to see if they are now infected with CV. The 95% figure quoted is not actually the efficacy as you and I may think, in some of the media releases note the use of the term 'observed effective' vs 'tested effective'.

It is the inverse of the relative infection rate for people who are showing up as symptomatic. None of the studies (if the lady is correct) are testing to identify unsymptomatic people. Doing the maths, if your study has 40,000+ volunteers being tested weekly then over the first 90 days that's 520,000 tests to be carried out - if you look at some of the countries the volunteers are in then they would account for a significant proportion of the daily testing. Equally they would be spending hours each week to get a test (in some cases).

So there is an argument to support not testing to see if +CV but unsymptomatic. This then makes me wonder whether the volunteers are tested before they enter the trial to see if they already have had CV?

If this is correct then the 'efficacy' at preventing ANY CV infection would seem to be 1/4 to 1/6th the 95% given that typically the ratio of unsymptomatic to symptomatic is quoted as between 3:1 or 5:1.

Not so good

 

[jase05]

So VIC now shutting the border to us for 48hrs and then operating a permit system after that

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NSW has out tested Vic for the last 2 weeks, despite fact that Vic is doing a blitz and NSW is BAU, nothing to worry about wrt NSW testing rates.

Whether you look at the last week, or last fortnight, on a population basis Vic is still doing more tests than NSW despite having had no new cases for longer.

Over the last fortnight per million people:

• NSW has tested 28,560 people/ million
• Vic has tested 33,090 people/ million

So while yes NSW is now at a good level of testing it is not accurate to state that they have out-tested Victoria in that period.

I would also note that the blitz is only focused on a few select areas where the most recent cases were mainly occurring, and is not a whole of state blitz. If it was whole of state the testing numbers would be higher.

When the targeted blitz concludes and if no new cases are found then yes the testing rate in Vic will no doubt decline.

 

[henleybeach]

This will be a kind of relief for dog owners. Hey @henleybeach - for your pooch. Go do the shopping.

"Police Commissioner Grant Stevens this morning said people could take their dog for a walk – but only if they were going out for an essential service.

“If you’re walking to the shops on your own for essential goods then the answer is yes (you can take your dog),” Mr Stevens said.

“We don’t want people to be smart coughs and manipulate this to do what they want to do.”

Great news, I took the sausage for a walk to get the bread and milk

 

[lovetravellingoz]

What a relief. I thought that they were just testing the system and not the contents.

Well they do test the pipes as well (though not for CV19) as you do not want them leaking (or rather leaking beyond acceptable levels), plus for blockages and with older systems for structural capacity as they do need relining, strengthening or replacement from time to time.

 

[DC3]

Well you have to access the system to test the contents

Testing the right one will help.

 

[DC3]

Well they do test the pipes as well (though not for CV19) as you do not want them leaking (or rather leaking beyond acceptable levels) ...

Well, we hope so. Even if just plugging the leaks.

 

[N860CR]

“We don’t want people to be smart coughs and manipulate this to do what they want to do.”

Yeah... “manipulate” it so their dogs coughs on grass and not on the carpet. How dare these people

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I've also heard a whisper that sewage (edited) testing in VIC has found no sign of Covid.

Vic reported today that wastewater testing (which in Vic is what we call sewage testing) has detected Covid 19 shedding in Benalla and Portland and that it was not there last week. Note that is is part of the ingoing wastewater CV19 surveillance program.

It is though to be old recovered cases who have moved into the two regions. ie Visitors, workers, people relocating, return travellers etc.

Note that since Monday last week intrastate travel restrictions have been removed and a lot of Melbourne people have been visiting regional Vic.

As an abundance of caution conventional testing will occur in these two locations just in case there is an active infection.








More on the Vic Wastewater Monitoring Program is at Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Wastewater monitoring - coronavirus (COVID-19)

 

[Lynda2475]

Hope apartment dwelling dogs in SA are trained to only need to poop and pee once per day, since you only allowed to leave your home once a day to go supermarket for maximum of 1 hour, and only way to walk a dog is enroute to get essentials.

Most responsible dog owners who live in apartments, take their dogs out for a short walk to find some grass for their business 2-3 times a day. Its near impossible to train older dogs to use a pet grass potty, something they generally need to learn as a puppy.

I dont see the harm in letting masked people walk a dog a few hundred meters to find some grass to do their business. SA officials clearly arent dog people.

 

[NZflygirl]

Weren't the football players getting tested twice a week, and they were in their own bubble.

If you work in an people returning from overseas they should be getting tested.

It was my understanding that they were proposing to use saliva tests not the nasal swab for rapid arrival tests for visitors and work places. If that is case, could test daily.

NBA were testing daily although I don’t know what type of test. I’ve only had the swabs and had no issue with the throat one, but the nose I think can be unpleasant. I suspect a saliva test is more pleasant and would be a better compromise with any increased frequency of testing even if it’s not quite as accurate.

Then this needs to change nationally, no excuse not to test everyone, it only takes a minute to do a swab when you have already collected all their details for admission.

Earlier on I think the reagent for the test was sourced from overseas. Not sure if that’s still the case but a limitation of resources would be one reason not to test everyone. When other states helped with VIC testing that surely would have added time to obtaining results as well, although SA have said they’re fine with lab capacity for now.

The SA CHO mentioned using credit card information to contact trace...

I still would like to know what kind of legislative authority they are using to enforce that no one leave their homes - for ANY reason - other than essential workers?! Bizarre to not allow people out for exercise. Totally lost the plot in this country, even in the UK now with the numbers they have - exercise, fine - with one person from one other household if you wish - with mask on.

....

Is it because people exercising requires more policing because there are more people moving around? Aren’t police doing checks on those quarantining as well? A number I expect will increase but hopefully only in the short term. It’s also only 6 days. I’m very doubtful the limit on exercise will exist beyond the 6 days along with others.

Also I think Xmas coming up where lots of mingling occurs is playing a part in these decisions IMO.

Our ACT Health QR code is great and more businesses seem to be using it. Any time I go to a business without the offical ACT code I make a little bit of a fuss - I refuse to use the company ones as there is a cloud over the security/sale of information. If they don't have the ACT one I insist on writing my contact details down. And point out the advantages of the ACT system.

Weirdly that app failed me every time (3). The other QR codes were ok except Big W but I have an issue with it in QLD also. Somewhat concerning at 2 places in the ACT I was told not to bother about signing in. One was manual. I signed in when I paid and left. The other place said “we make people sign in on the weekends when it’s more crowded”.

What stunned me more what that the SA CHO stated on 7:30 tonight the issue with testing capacity wasnt pathology/test processing but having enough qualified staff to adminster the tests! In the event of an outbreak you know you need to stand up extra pop testing centres, and test everyone who needs to be tested.

.....

What might be difficult is predicting how many extra people you need? They know they need more but how many more?
Those people may well have other jobs too apart from public health testing that they can’t just drop at a moments notice.

Well ive used non govt systems since May and have not had a single marketing email nor scam call on the details used. As stated before it is easy to set up a new email address specifically for this purpose. Better than every customer being able to get your name and number.

QR sign is mandatory from Monday in NSW if you refuse to use it here then you will be refused service.

The only issue with this is shopkeepers now have to deal with conflict that arises or checking that people actually scan.
It’s one thing to say it’s mandatory but enforcement is another issue. Some people also don’t own smart phones.

Weirdly, the face mask thing is a strong recommendation and not mandatory in public.

I think they said because not everyone has one but they’re recommending people start looking into getting one.

(Wow this thread takes off if you haven’t looked at it for a while!)

 

[DC3]

Great news, I took the sausage for a walk to get the bread and milk

Can you go out to take the dog for a walk, and along the way buy bread and milk? Is that the same, or does that conjure up something nefarious in Adelaide? So, that would be doing the “wrong thing”?

 

[Pushka]

Can you go out to take the dog for a walk, and along the way buy bread and milk? Is that the same, or does that conjure up something nefarious in Adelaide? So, that would be doing the “wrong thing”?

Police Commissioner as quoted earlier has said as long as you are doing an essential activity, like the once a day shopping, then taking the dog is fine.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Police Commissioner as quoted earlier has said as long as you are doing an essential activity, like the once a day shopping, then taking the dog is fine.

Dog's can get walk fatigue pretty quickly. Particularly if in a larger household with many people who want to walk them.

 

[Pushka]

Dog's can get walk fatigue pretty quickly. Particularly if in a larger household with many people who want to walk them.

They have that covered. Maybe they were thinking of the dogs! Just one person in the household a day unless of course it's a medical emergency. But I'm thinking only the dog would know if that wasn't applied properly.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I dont see the harm in letting masked people walk a dog a few hundred meters to find some grass to do their business. SA officials clearly arent dog people.

Even in Victoria 'a few hundred metres' was not permitted. Outside your one hour of exercise a day, you were only permitted to take pooch to the immediate environs of your apartment block. So like the closest fire hydrant! Not a local park or anything.

Half the trouble was people 'not seeing the harm'... we had that argument for all sorts of things in Victoria and it sort of starts the slippery slope

 

[Pushka]

Even in Victoria 'a few hundred metres' was not permitted. Outside your one hour of exercise a day, you were only permitted to take pooch to the immediate environs of your apartment block. So like the closest fire hydrant! Not a local park or anything.

Half the trouble was people 'not seeing the harm'... we had that argument for all sorts of things in Victoria and it sort of starts the slippery slope

No outside hour of exercise allowed here. Just as well of the beach would be packed.

 

[Lynda2475]

The early harm in Vic was that people in Hotel Quarantine were allowed out to exercise and that people were allowed to exercise in public without a mask even at height of the second wave.

Many high rise apartment buildings in our main cities have no grass on premises and you need to walk up to 2 blocks to find a park or nature strip for the dog to go. 2-3 masked trips to nearest piece of grass and back per day (10 mins each max) is a lot less risky than allowing others to jog/run unmasked up to 5kms from their home expelling droplets everywhere.

Also in Vic everyone in the home could leave for up to 1 hour of exercise a day, whereas in SA its only 1 person. So in Melbourne the dog could go out for a piddle as many times as there were people in thre home.

Some common sense is needed, like only fine people if there is grassed area closer to your home than where you are found with your dog. Dogs need to do their business, much more essential than leaving the Bottlo open. Policy clearly set by people who are priviledged enough to have a yard, most people living in inner city do not have this luxury.

 

[Lynda2475]

So first major theatre production since theatres went dark in March opens on Tuesday night - Pippin at the Lyric.

I have tickets for that night and just received the Covid guidelines, seem to be quite thorough:





Full covid plan is here: COVID Safety Plan

Its good that if anyone is feelign unwell and cant attend you cant change date of performance without penalty.

 

[andye]

Now that the relatively 'good news' is above - there was a very revealing interview on ABC Newsradio between 8am-9am this morning with a vaccine expert. The interview was going along very jovially until near the end the journalist asked;
"So what do the results we've seen with 95% efficacy mean?"

Go online & listen, most new revealing information in months - if correct but sounded like it was. Listen to the tone change.

Paraphrasing - it seems that (unstated in the interests of speed & lowering costs) the volunteers for the various vaccine trials are not being physically tested to see if they are now infected with CV. The 95% figure quoted is not actually the efficacy as you and I may think, in some of the media releases note the use of the term 'observed effective' vs 'tested effective'.

It is the inverse of the relative infection rate for people who are showing up as symptomatic. None of the studies (if the lady is correct) are testing to identify unsymptomatic people. Doing the maths, if your study has 40,000+ volunteers being tested weekly then over the first 90 days that's 520,000 tests to be carried out - if you look at some of the countries the volunteers are in then they would account for a significant proportion of the daily testing. Equally they would be spending hours each week to get a test (in some cases).

So there is an argument to support not testing to see if +CV but unsymptomatic. This then makes me wonder whether the volunteers are tested before they enter the trial to see if they already have had CV?

If this is correct then the 'efficacy' at preventing ANY CV infection would seem to be 1/4 to 1/6th the 95% given that typically the ratio of unsymptomatic to symptomatic is quoted as between 3:1 or 5:1.

Not so good

I don't see an issue as particpants are randomly and blindly allocated to vaccine v placebo. It shouldn't change the ratio-
Unless the vaccine protects less well against asymptomatic disease which I cant see is inherently likely.