Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

Also in Vic everyone in the home could leave for up to 1 hour of exercise a day, whereas in SA its only 1 person.

No exercise at all allowed. The only reason we can leave the home is to do essential shopping, just one person, or medical requirements. Otherwise it's a lockdown.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The early harm in Vic was that people in Hotel Quarantine were allowed out to exercise and that people were allowed to exercise in public without a mask.

You may be blending hotel quarantine with home isolation rules and breaches somewhat there, though each had issues.

You use the word harm. I believe with hotel quarantine, it was more that it was suspected exercise may have caused harm, rather than having been demonstrated as definitely having caused transmission.

There was a lot of speculation in the media about what caused transmission and few facts. ie For a while it was that sex between a security guard and a hotel guest had created the second wave. Whereas we now know that the quarantine guests that the the vast majority of second wave cases came from was a family of four (including children) So sex being the prime reason for transmission would be extremely unlikely.



The biggest suspected issue with home isolation was that people who were meant to be isolating at home were not always doing so. Some were just ignoring it and others may have been using the permitted exercise as a cover for other things such as still working or going out. Even when that rule was rescinded some people still went to work etc. So a raft of measures came in including more physical check ups. and also that people.

With home isolation there are proven cases of transmission from people who were meant to be at home, but were not. The cases I recall were transmission in workplaces, other homes and the like and not from exercise (though that may possibly have been a cover story for some).

Accordingly, hotel detention for international arrivals constitutes a reasonably necessary course of action in the current exceptional circumstances. On current medical evidence, it is also the least restrictive means reasonably available to stem the spread and effect of 2019-nCoV, particularly since less restrictive measures for international arrivals previously proved ineffective, with some persons returning from overseas failing to self-isolate in their homes for 14 days — in clear defiance of previous directions — thereby causing the further spread of the virus.11

Though the non-compliance in the early part of the second wave was not as high as first thought as addresses were wrong.

Mr Ashton elaborated on the compliance checking process in his evidence. He stated that he received daily reports that included instances where people were found not to be at home during compliance checks. He added that in many cases people were isolating, but not at the places the ABF thought they would be. He said that, as a result, Victoria Police had to adjust its records and ‘clean the data a lot on where people actually were’.46

 

[Carrots]

So. Just received the advice from APS. Partners clinical practice as a Psychologist is not considered an essential service in SA and all consults must be done by Telecons. Or cancelled. Dans and other alcohol outlets are regarded as essential services. SA has gone mad.

Same regs for my partners physio clinic, so anything sudden and acute is off to hospital now.

 

[Carrots]

Indeed I'm surprised that Qld didn't change the 100% crowd rules for State of Origin, given the security guard/pizza worker in the SA incident worked within 10km of Adelaide Oval. (Game 2 was 7 days ago in Adelaide)

How many people at Game 3 tonight also attended last week's game.

Game 1 was here 2 weeks ago, the precautionary measures by the NRL to limit contact and interaction was quite in-depth and anyone with field of play access had to wear appropriate face masks and gloves which included all of the security, and strict distancing requirements were in place for those only in the bubble for the day (so to speak).

 

[blackcat20]

The early harm in Vic was that people in Hotel Quarantine were allowed out to exercise and that people were allowed to exercise in public without a mask even at height of the second wave.

As are people in other states; a friend in quarantine in QLD not long ago was allowed our for daily exercise.

 

[Lynda2475]

Of all my 6 friends who did hotel quarantine in Sydney none were not allowed to leave their rooms at all, except one that lucked out and was allowed 15 mins a day to walk laps around the pool deck (which meant never leaving the hotel premises).

I dont think people in iso should be allowed to exercise anywhere they may encounter members of the public.

 

[Toula92122]

I'm in hotel quarantine in Sydney and they are quite explicit that we are not allowed out our room. If we do leave there is no way to get back into our room as we were not given a key. However, I've found that with all the time in the world I have been able to exercise everyday. I did bring some rubber bands, I've done some YT workouts and I've managed to run 7 kms a day in a room that is 10 paces across.

 

[Pushka]

I'm in hotel quarantine in Sydney and they are quite explicit that we are not allowed out our room. If we do leave there is no way to get back into our room as we were not given a key. However, I've found that with all the time in the world I have been able to exercise everyday. I did bring some rubber bands, I've done some YT workouts and I've managed to run 7 kms a day in a room that is 10 paces across.

You came back!!!!!

 

[Toula92122]

You came back!!!!!

Yes, we had no intention of returning but here we are sitting in quarantine in Sydney. After the inaction on CV in the US and the fiasco of the election we decided we were done. Within a week I had packed some boxes for shipping, donated all our furniture and household contents and I was on the plane. I was fortunate in being able to redeem United points for a flight last minute which offset the outrageous cost for my husband's ticket. We have decided we are here to stay and will not be returning to the US on a permanent basis.

 

[Pushka]

They have now removed one of the positives from the original cluster that caused the lockdown. We keep asking ourselves - what aren’t they telling us to react like this?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

They have now removed one of the positives from the original cluster that caused the lockdown. We keep asking ourselves - what aren’t they telling us to react like this?

Good question. I was thinking the extreme measures are linked to this particular strain of the virus, which was claimed to be super easy to spread?

 

[jase05]

They have now removed one of the positives from the original cluster that caused the lockdown. We keep asking ourselves - what aren’t they telling us to react like this?

I think the shear number of contacts at the Woodville Pizza bar and the possibility of Uber eats/Menulog being involved has put the fear into them.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As are people in other states; a friend in quarantine in QLD not long ago was allowed our for daily exercise.

In the NT you see them all swimming together in the pool include the infamous Karen from Toorak.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

They have now removed one of the positives from the original cluster that caused the lockdown. We keep asking ourselves - what aren’t they telling us to react like this?

My guess is that they know that they cannot risk overwhelming their contract tracing as the numbers it can handle is very low. With doing two rings of contacts around the infected it would soon lag as numbers get very large very quick with such measures.

This was probably why with the Thebarton Cluster they went the way they did. Also testing there went over 48hrs.

WA and Vic both helping now with contact tracing.

 

[RAM]

I don't see an issue as particpants are randomly and blindly allocated to vaccine v placebo. It shouldn't change the ratio-
Unless the vaccine protects less well against asymptomatic disease which I cant see is inherently likely.

The difference is that as they're not actively testing the volunteers - then the rate of CV infection is likely to be between 4 to 6x (or more) higher. So if more people are getting infected then the efficacy (protecting people from getting infected) is 1/4 to 1/6th of 95% so say between 16 to 25%.

The maths can be confusing here. The important unspoken link is that while there may be 40,000 volunteers - just like in the broader community - not everyone is catching CV.

So the analysis (that is yet to be done or verified) then looks at if the 40,000 are a representative sample of the entire population then after 3 months as the entire population who have tested positive is 0.3% we would expect 120 people would have caught the virus.

However - those 120 could be say 20 symptomatic & 100 asymptomatic.

So reporting that 'observed' symptomatic are X does not tell anywhere near the full story. For example, perhaps the vaccine lessens the impact of CV but you can still catch it & spread it as you are asympomatic. Thats why these trials normally take much much longer to come to the ultimate result.

However, due to the severity of CV etc etc, certain protocols are being waved through. For example? How long does the vaccine last for? Do people who were vaccinated develop any long term issues? With the speeding up - this part is being bypassed in the interests of getting it out.

Historically all previously created CV vaccines produced too many adverse long term side effects & were dropped as the risks far out-weighed the benefit. Luckily, so far the worst side-effect does not appear to have shown itself - making the patient more likely to die.

Hopefully none of them will but there have been too many 'wonder drugs' that went through the lengthy processes that turned out not so well. Thalidomyde for example.

 

[Matt_01]

They have now removed one of the positives from the original cluster that caused the lockdown. We keep asking ourselves - what aren’t they telling us to react like this?

Maybe a little OT but who cares if we are to be locked up for 6 days then a review to ease restrictions for a further 8 days and then most likely another 7 day review period (SA is the nanny state) so in all 3 weeks. It is a far better situation than a 100 plus days of lockdown that the Victorian folk have gone through.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The difference is that as they're not actively testing the volunteers ...

Is that any different from the flu vaccine? Do they test people who don't have the flu to see if the vaccine works each year? (I dunno, genuine question.)

 

[drron]

They have now removed one of the positives from the original cluster that caused the lockdown. We keep asking ourselves - what aren’t they telling us to react like this?

I have explained it in this post.I now believe your CHO was on the ball.

Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Exactly. We were told in March the initial “lockdowns” were to give the hospital systems time to prepare. I’m really questioning what these states did. It seems that the entire budget went to “slamming borders shut” and zero actual planning took place. It’s almost criminal... yet people keep...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I have explained it in this post.I now believe your CHO was on the ball.

Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Exactly. We were told in March the initial “lockdowns” were to give the hospital systems time to prepare. I’m really questioning what these states did. It seems that the entire budget went to “slamming borders shut” and zero actual planning took place. It’s almost criminal... yet people keep...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

I read your other post but what is unclear to me is what is the difference between the NSW variation and the Danish variation that make the Danish variation more dangerous?

 

[drron]

I read your other post but what is unclear to me is what is the difference between the NSW variation and the Danish variation that make the Danish variation more dangerous?

Because what has arrived in SA via the UK is the new Mutation called D614G which was first reported at the beginning of the month.Both the Victorian and NSW recent clusters were due to a different mutation.Most of Australia's first wave was the initial Wuhan virus which was not as infective as the mutations that have occurred in Europe.this allowed us to be more successful in suppression.

If this new strain got going in South australia it would have been possible for them to get European type numbers reasonably quickly hence the drastic action.It is a replacent of 1 amino acid in the viral RNA.