Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jase05]

Because what has arrived in SA via the UK is the new Mutation called D614G which was first reported at the beginning of the month.Both the Victorian and NSW recent clusters were due to a different mutation.Most of Australia's first wave was the initial Wuhan virus which was not as infective as the mutations that have occurred in Europe.this allowed us to be more successful in suppression.

If this new strain got going in South australia it would have been possible for them to get European type numbers reasonably quickly hence the drastic action.It is a replacent of 1 amino acid in the viral RNA.

are you saying this SA cluster is a real new mutation that puts at risk all our current controls and also puts at risk vaccine effectiveness?

 

[drron]

It is indeed a new mutation.Every new mutation does mean there is a question mark re the vaccines though the makers are confident it won't effect their results - but they would say that wouldn't they.

As to controls it means we should aim for perfection rather than very good.however it is a good test.If SA is successful in shutting down this cluster it will make them one of the world's best successes in the Covid fight.Let's hope they are successful.

 

[trevella]

the new Mutation called D614G which was first reported at the beginning of the month

What?

EXPERT COMMENTARY: ‘D614G’ mutation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 - CSIRO

www.csiro.au

In Australia it currently seems to be less frequent than the world average, appearing in only 50 per cent of the surveyed sequences (in 717 high quality isolates out of the total 1300 Australian isolates, 3rd May).

Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified...

www.biorxiv.org

The mutation Spike D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February

 

[andye]

The difference is that as they're not actively testing the volunteers - then the rate of CV infection is likely to be between 4 to 6x (or more) higher. So if more people are getting infected then the efficacy (protecting people from getting infected) is 1/4 to 1/6th of 95% so say between 16 to 25%.

The maths can be confusing here. The important unspoken link is that while there may be 40,000 volunteers - just like in the broader community - not everyone is catching CV.

So the analysis (that is yet to be done or verified) then looks at if the 40,000 are a representative sample of the entire population then after 3 months as the entire population who have tested positive is 0.3% we would expect 120 people would have caught the virus.

However - those 120 could be say 20 symptomatic & 100 asymptomatic.
.....

I think your point only holds water if the vaccine differentially affects a symptomatic presentation (which would actually be a good thing)
Assuming this is not the case, take a trial of 10000 patients
If there are 10 symptomatic tested cases on the vaccine group and 190 symptomatic tested in the placebo group then it is 95% effective.
Even if we are missing a large number of patients because they are not tested (your example of 4x which might be true outside Australia) then there would be 40 actual in the vaccine group and 760 in the placebo group. Still 95% effective.

Admittedly there would be more people running around with Covid in a fully vaccinated population which would make eradication slower

Your concerns on long-term effects of vaccines are of course important considerations

The trial Forest plots of severity, particularly of admissions to hospital, ventilation and death will help give an idea if the vaccines affect the severity rather fully prevent disease

 

[drron]

What?

EXPERT COMMENTARY: ‘D614G’ mutation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 - CSIRO

www.csiro.au

In Australia it currently seems to be less frequent than the world average, appearing in only 50 per cent of the surveyed sequences (in 717 high quality isolates out of the total 1300 Australian isolates, 3rd May).

Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified...

www.biorxiv.org

The mutation Spike D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February

The current D614G mutation is a mutation on the D614G line as the article from Science stated.This particular mutation was first reported on November 2nd.
The original D614G mutation ocurred in Europe and was responsible for most of Europe's first wave.It was more infective than the Wuhan strain.This current mutation is the 5th in the line of mutations of this strain.

Similiar things are seen with the flu.The Spanish Flu was an H1N1 virus.The subsequent mutations of this strain have been responsible for at least 3 subsequent pandemics.In 2018 it was an H1N1 viral strain that was responsible for a large proportion of the flu deaths here that year.Even though it is described as the same strain of the virus as the Spanish Flu it is not genetically identical to the Spanish flu virus.

 

[RAM]

I think your point only holds water if the vaccine differentially affects a symptomatic presentation (which would actually be a good thing)
Assuming this is not the case, take a trial of 10000 patients
If there are 10 symptomatic tested cases on the vaccine group and 190 symptomatic tested in the placebo group then it is 95% effective.
Even if we are missing a large number of patients because they are not tested (your example of 4x which might be true outside Australia) then there would be 40 actual in the vaccine group and 760 in the placebo group. Still 95% effective.

Admittedly there would be more people running around with Covid in a fully vaccinated population which would make eradication slower

Your concerns on long-term effects of vaccines are of course important considerations

The trial Forest plots of severity, particularly of admissions to hospital, ventilation and death will help give an idea if the vaccines affect the severity rather fully prevent disease

I would agree with your analysis bar one issue - you make some assumptions:

1. That the ratio of asymptomatic cases to symptomatic is the same ratio as for symptomatic. Without testing you just don't know. For example instead of just 10 S cases in the V group, and 40 - AS, it could be 840 in the AS group.
2. You also assume a vaccine does not have unexpected consequences - nature does not really like us interfering. It might decrease the severity and turn otherwise symptomatic cases into asymptomatic which then turns many more people into super spreaders (bad outcome), so speeds up community transmission.

Without regular actual testing you just do not know & cannot draw any statistically valid conclusions - which is why these are all getting legal cover (in case anything does go wrong) through the emergency approval. A bit like saying on the Titannic they should have taken off all the wooden doors to use as lifeboat floats - as something is better than nothing (ok I admit it - ever since I first saw the original Titannic movie I've always wondered why they didn't use the doors - they had plenty of time to).

Back OT - late this afternoon I saw a statement from either the UK or EU CDC-equivalent saying much more eloquently that they have requested much more of the data & details as what's been released so far does not provide anything that they can begin to validate, thus unlikely to have any vaccine approved for use before January at the earliest.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

The current D614G mutation is a mutation on the D614G line as the article from Science stated.This particular mutation was first reported on November 2nd.

I disagree with your statement.

 

[Pushka]

I have explained it in this post.I now believe your CHO was on the ball.

Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Exactly. We were told in March the initial “lockdowns” were to give the hospital systems time to prepare. I’m really questioning what these states did. It seems that the entire budget went to “slamming borders shut” and zero actual planning took place. It’s almost criminal... yet people keep...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

Thanks for the info. That assists with understanding the situation. And this is what they weren't telling us.

Agreeing now with Anna about risks, I had also believed that it was usual practice for workers in quarantine to be tested regularly as truckies are required to do every 7 days but clearly that has never been policy. I have no issue whatsoever in repatriating Australians but I do wonder how many times we can drop the ball and not suffer dire consequences. Well, more dire than what we've had already.

No news of infections yet. Usually reported around 5pm but suspect it will be earlier than that. There was talk yesterday that we may be permitted to exercise outside the house. Time will tell.

 

[I love to travel]

Will be interesting to see whether Victoria pulls border closure after 48 hours. That might give us an idea of how worried they truly are.

 

[jakeseven7]

Thanks for the info. That assists with understanding the situation.

Agreeing now with Anna about risks, I had also believed that it was usual practice for workers in quarantine to be tested regularly as truckies are required to do every 7 days but clearly that has never been policy. I have no issue whatsoever in repatriating Australians but I do wonder how many times we can drop the ball and not suffer dire consequences. Well, more dire than what we've had already.

No news of infections yet. Usually reported around 5pm but suspect it will be earlier than that. There was talk yesterday that we may be permitted to exercise outside the house. Time will tell.

NSW and WA have had multiple hotel quarantine breaches as well and there is an element of good/bad luck if it does / doesn’t spark an outbreak. NZ as well.

While this system exists there be will be more outbreaks. Probably everywhere.

 

[Pushka]

NSW and WA have had multiple hotel quarantine breaches as well and there is an element of good/bad luck if it does / doesn’t spark an outbreak. NZ as well.

While this system exists there be will be more outbreaks. Probably everywhere.

Sure. Of course. But I'd assumed they would be captured in a 7 day test rather than luck when a symptomless worker passes it on to some vulnerable relative maybe a couple of weeks later.

 

[jase05]

Will be interesting to see whether Victoria pulls border closure after 48 hours. That might give us an idea of how worried they truly are.

Dan stated that after the 48hrs they will go to a permit system and all border crossers will need to apply. Obviously we are trying to find out more information as the company has over 100 crossings a day

 

[andye]

NSW Health has moved from Amber to Green alert
One of the consequences of this is that surgical masks are only mandatory in ED and when treating a patient with respiratory symptoms
Morale has definitely lifted though I can understand some people being twitchy about the change

 

[jase05]

Chatter here is 2 cases today but there is some gossip that Victoria has had a case overnight aswell

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well there is a delay acknowledged by Vic DHHS twitter

 

[I love to travel]

Chatter here is 2 cases today but there is some gossip that Victoria has had a case overnight aswell

And if correct the clock resets for Queenslanders trying to get back to SA for Xmas. Sigh...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Chatter here is 2 cases today but there is some gossip that Victoria has had a case overnight aswell

Well daily update is late.

However in recent times there have been 15 shedding cases that test positive, but are not new cases. So they may have had another of those.

 

[Pushka]

Chatter here is 2 cases today but there is some gossip that Victoria has had a case overnight aswell

Hopefully those two are from that group of 17 there have been concerns about. And that Vic is a shedder.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

SA press conference in an hour’s time 11am Eastern, 10:30am Central

 

[lovetravellingoz]

etc