Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

I note that there is a hypothesis that SA has a super contagious strain with the current outbreak. If this is so, where are all the cases?

If it is super contagious then would transmission not have been extremely high and widespread?

In Vic in the second wave in clusters over similar timespans to this SA cluster there were clusters with much greater case numbers, and this was in settings with substantial restrictions and control measures to limit transmission in place, whereas SA had virtually nil.

Only 22 cases so far, and most are in the one family. And these were all when apart from the hotel workplace were in settings with virtually no control measures were at play. Time frame was say 6-14th November from early infection to first confirmed tests

What has been involved is a large family, and we know from the Vic Second Wave that large families, and crowded workplaces like abattoirs, were the main reason why the Ro of the Second Wave was much higher that for the first wave, and this led to more rapid spread. ie People gathering indoors in close proximity.

When measures were still quite strict in Vic you had one cleaner work for 3 days while infected at the Butcher Club. She was also in a large family (13 cases) and The Butcher Club Outbreak went from 8 cases on day one 1st Oct to 31 cases by 7 October. Containment measures were commenced and it grew to 39 cases by the 20th. So this combined cluster in a similar time frame had about double the cases of the SA clusters, but did so in a setting with substantial restrictions and controls in place to slow down transmission.

Casey Household Cluster: Day one 1 case on 14th Oct. By 17th Oct 34 and by 20th Oct 43 cases.

Dandenong Police Station Cluster: Went to 13 cases in a few days.

Bertochi Smallgoods Cluster in early August went to 196 cases in just over a week!

etc

 

[Pushka]

to

I note that there is a hypothesis that SA has a super contagious strain with the current outbreak. If this is so, where are all the cases?

If it is super contagious then would transmission not have been extremely high and widespread?

In Vic in the second wave in clusters over similar timespans to this SA cluster there were clusters with much greater case numbers, and this was in settings with substantial restrictions and control measures to limit transmission in place, whereas SA had virtually nil.

Only 22 cases so far, and most are in the one family. And these were all when apart from the hotel workplace were in settings with virtually no control measures were at play. Time frame was say 6-14th November from early infection to first confirmed tests

What has been involved is a large family, and we know from the Vic Second Wave that large families, and crowded workplaces like abattoirs, were the main reason why the Ro of the Second Wave was much higher that for the first wave, and this led to more rapid spread. ie People gathering indoors in close proximity.

When measures were still quite strict in Vic you had one cleaner work for 3 days while infected at the Butcher Club. She was also in a large family (13 cases) and The Butcher Club Outbreak went from 8 cases on day one 1st Oct to 31 cases by 7 October. Containment measures were commenced and it grew to 39 cases by the 20th. So this combined cluster in a similar time frame had about double the cases of the SA clusters, but did so in a setting with substantial restrictions and controls in place to slow down transmission.

Casey Household Cluster: Day one 1 case on 14th Oct. By 17th Oct 34 and by 20th Oct 43 cases.

Dandenong Police Station Cluster: Went to 13 cases in a few days.

Bertochi Smallgoods Cluster in early August went to 196 cases in just over a week!

etc

This has now been rebutted. It wasn’t why we went into lockdown. It was because one person lied.

 

[jakeseven7]

This bloke best make himself scarce.

Incredible....... Absolutely incredible......

What on earth was there to gain.... was he illegally employed cash in hand perhaps? Not on the books? They aren't giving any details.....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

to

This has now been rebutted. It wasn’t why we went into lockdown.

So you have bought the spin that the SA authorities reacted the way they did soley based on one person making a lie?

The empirical evidence of actual cases compared to Vic clusters was that a super contagious strain was not at work and there as there was not the case load acceleration as clusters in Vic.

 

[jb747]

Hopefully! We don't want SA to be known as 'The State that ruined Christmas for Australia'

No, I think Queensland has already run off with that title. WA runners up.

This bloke best make himself scarce.

Perhaps they could give him his own personal quarantine, equal to all of the man hours, and quarantine time, of anyone affected by his behaviour. Should be out some time in the next few hundred years.

 

[Pushka]

So you have bought the spin that the SA authorities reacted the way they did soley based on one person making a lie?

The empirical evidence of actual cases compared to Vic clusters was that a super contagious strain was not at work and there as there was not the case load acceleration as clusters in Vic.

Well, don't you always tell us to listen to the authorities and that is exactly what the Police Commissioner just said.

Post automatically merged: Nov 20, 2020

Incredible....... Absolutely incredible......

What on earth was there to gain.... was he illegally employed cash in hand perhaps? Not on the books? They aren't giving any details.....

Maybe. They won't say.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well perfect timing for SA reopening to QLD to be considered next week at our famous monthly border meeting!

I wonder what the QLD evaluation of this slightly cringeworthy / embarrassing / astonishing mini lockdown will be.....

 

[jakeseven7]

No, I think Queensland has already run off with that title. WA runners up.

My apologies yes you are correct, SA can have bronze though for giving us all a shock and with probably the most embarrassing lockdown in the world Oh dear.....

Perhaps they could give him his own personal quarantine, equal to all of the man hours, and quarantine time, of anyone affected by his behaviour. Should be out some time in the next few hundred years.

If he plays football the QLD CHO will wave his quarantine at he can stay in our footy party pad up here.

But seriously, people will know who he is, it will start leaking, he would be best to exit the state as soon as the borders come down....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well, don't you always tell us to listen to the authorities and that is exactly what the Police Commissioner just said.
.

No. I am more look at the data type of guy and then test it for reasonableness against what the authorities are doing/saying.

I just find it unbelievable that they are trying to justify the hugely strict lockdown on just one person lying.

What about the other contact tracing. What about the actual cases found. What about comparing the case rate to other outbreaks?

 

[Pushka]

No. I am more look at the data type of guy and then test it for reasonableness against what the authorities are doing/saying.

I just find it unbelievable that they are trying to pin this decision on just one person lying.

What about the other contact tracing. What about the actual cases found. What about comparing the case rate to other outbreaks?

The reporters have picked up on that and have said that meant the employers of the pizza bar have also lied to the tracers. Police have been asked if they needed to give them protection.

The lie was that he bought a pizza and contracted Covid. So a very quick exposure and he got it. It turned out he worked there and was also a close contact of another positive case.

The new cases - still have a significant number of close contacts. 3 new cases but they were family members of known contacts and they were in the 17 known group and all in quarantine. They expect to see a rise in cases as they quarantined people early and we shouldn't be alarmed.

 

[jakeseven7]

No. I am more look at the data type of guy and then test it for reasonableness against what the authorities are doing/saying.

I just find it unbelievable that they are trying to pin this decision on just one person lying.

What about the other contact tracing. What about the actual cases found. What about comparing the case rate to other outbreaks?

My gut is this:

- Now they've had time with VIC and WA's contact tracing assisting SA Health believe they have it in control
- They perhaps realised that they overreacted
- One person told a reasonably big lie as well (and others at this pizza place clearly also lied too...)
= Dodgy pizza people are a great lightning rod for everything being heaped on them and the government doesn't look like a hysterical teenager....

If they didn't have this group of dodgy pizza people, the spin would have been 'We kept South Australians safe'**

** And sent a cake to QLD for licencing this line

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So 3 new local cases today in SA. All in quarantine already.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think you'll find that under the SA laws, it's the police who make the decisions in this sort of 'state of emergency'. I expect the politicians like it that way, as it provides plausible distance from any failed or flawed decision making.

Thanks, yes. I think I misunderstood Pushka's post that the Commissioner was questioning the health grounds for the lockdown. But I think I got that wrong.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

My gut is this:

- Now they've had time with VIC and WA's contact tracing assisting SA Health believe they have it in control
- They perhaps realised that they overreacted
- One person told a reasonably big lie as well (and others at this pizza place clearly also lied too...)
= Dodgy pizza people are a great lightning rod for everything being heaped on them and the government doesn't look like a hysterical teenager....

If they didn't have this group of dodgy pizza people, the spin would have been 'We kept South Australians safe so shoot us from being cautious'**

** And sent a cake to QLD for licencing this line

People lying is hardly new, and has occurred in all states throughout the pandemic. SA stating that such a strict lockdown was purely due to that person's lies is implausible.

Cautious is good, rapid action is good, but the lockdown measures were way stricter than in any other jurisdiction which implied a smoking gun. That there was not hard evidence apart from contact tracing interviews puts into question as to why the immediate jump to such draconian measures.


Spurrier is now saying that it was also that one family became almost 100% positive. Well this is just what was seen in Vic.

She is also vaguely talking on it being a new strain (hardly surprising for a hotel quarantine breach).

In the end stated nothing about the genomics that make it special.

 

[VPS]

Some of the questions the journalists were asking makes me wonder where they got their degrees

 

[Pushka]

Thanks, yes. I think I misunderstood Pushka's post that the Commissioner was questioning the health grounds for the lockdown. But I think I got that wrong.

Actually I believe he did in the beginning because his sons wedding was supposed to be this Saturday, and it had to be cancelled. Apparently now, in vain. I bet he is secretly fuming.

Post automatically merged: Nov 20, 2020

Some of the questions the journalists were asking makes me wonder where they got their degrees

To be fair, what has happened to SA and what we found out today is quite staggering.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

To be fair, what has happened to SA and what we found out today is quite staggering.

On that we can all agree.

 

[VPS]

Actually I believe he did in the beginning because his sons wedding was supposed to be this Saturday, and it had to be cancelled. Apparently now, in vain. I bet he is secretly fuming.

Post automatically merged: Nov 20, 2020

To be fair, what has happened to SA and what we found out today is quite staggering.

but they were asking the same questions again and again - Stevens clearly said there is no provision for penalties under the Emergency Management act to charge the guy who lied with anything.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Absolutely speechless.

My true and sincere thoughts with business owners who face thousands in losses due to this astounding revelation.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well, don't you always tell us to listen to the authorities and that is exactly what the Police Commissioner just said.

Don’t worry Vic Premier/Minister/CHO also made a move on this lie so they must have thought there was a possibility it was true.