Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

but lets be clear, there is no wide spread across Greater Sydney (nor the regional areas Vic added to the restrictions

If we want to be clear then you should say that there has been no wide spread detected. Dr Chant has stated that she does not know.

I agree that it looks like it has not spread widely. But is is not yet known. It could be spread wider. Let's all hope that it has not been.


NSW authorities have acted very well since the first test result, but this strain has had at least one ride up to Queensland and back again and has also been travelling in Sydney in its hosts. That it has not spread wider in terms of new known cases outside of the the northern beaches is mainly a matter of luck.

With that travel there is a clear and unknown risk.

Personally I am very confident that the NSW authorities will squash this outbreak.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[antycbr]

If we want to be clear then you should say that there has been no wide spread detected. Dr Chant has stated that she does not know.

I agree that it looks like it has not spread widely. But is is not yet known. It could be spread wider. Let's all hope that it has not been.


NSW authorities have acted very well since the first test result, but this strain has had at least one ride up to Queensland and back again and has also been travelling in Sydney in its hosts. That it has not spread wider in terms of new known cases outside of the the northern beaches is mainly a matter of luck.

With that travel there is a clear and unknown risk.

Personally I am very confident that the NSW authorities will squash this outbreak.

So once the outbreak is squashed you will see very limited booking by Sydney residents interstate. Given the reaction of the premiers no one can book with any confidence while we take so many international arrivals and there's the possibility of another outbreak.

Tell the state premiers (SA, Tasmania and Queensland primarily) to stop wasting their time advertising the wares of their states on TV.

 

[Lynda2475]

Tell the state premiers (SA, Tasmania and Queensland primarily) to stop wasting their time advertising the wares of their states on TV.

It is quite humourous how heavily Qld and SA have been advertising on Sydney TV (seen ads for both this morning) even though we are again locked out.

My decision to book regional NSW break validated, as has my ensuring any flight and hotel bookings I make are fully refundable, given there is zero certainty that you can enter other states even if they are open when you board the plane.

 

[antycbr]

It is quite humourous how heavily Qld and SA have been advertising on Sydney TV (seen ads for both this morning) even though we are again locked out.

My decision to book regional NSW break validated, as has my ensuring any flight and hotel bookings I make are fully refundable, given there is zero certainty that you can enter other states even if they are open when you board the plane.

Even if you're in their airspace. Good thing our state premiers dont have Air National Guard units like US State Governors do, otherwise you'd see QF and VA flights being intercepted by fighter aircraft.

 

[OZDUCK]

The BBC is reporting that 2 people in Australia have ben detected with the 'new' more infectious variety of Covid-19. Luckily they were both in hotel quarantine and it appears to have been contained. However, it also points out that it is not yet certain that this mutated version is actually as infectious as claimed. Quotes are -

"However, we do not have absolute certainty. New strains can become more common simply by being in the right place at the right time - such as London, which had only tier two restrictions until recently."

&

" But there remain questions about whether it is any more infectious at all.
"The amount of evidence in the public domain is woefully inadequate to draw strong or firm opinions on whether the virus has truly increased transmission," said Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham."

 

[Lynda2475]

Yes Dr Chant was asked about the UK strain this morning and whether we should be refusing arrivals from the UK. She said we had 2 positive cases with that strain in medi hotels but no immediate plans to ban UK arrivals.

Now perhaps the other states could disclose the same info?

 

[antycbr]

Yes Dr Chant was asked about the UK strain this morning and whether we should be refusing arrivals from the UK. She said we had 2 positive cases with that strain in medi hotels but no immediate plans to ban UK arrivals.

Now perhaps the other states could disclose the same info?

Hopefully there are no exemptions.

 

[Pushka]

The BBC is reporting that 2 people in Australia have ben detected with the 'new' more infectious variety of Covid-19. Luckily they were both in hotel quarantine and it appears to have been contained. However, it also points out that it is not yet certain that this mutated version is actually as infectious as claimed. Quotes are -

Curious how they know that and we don't. I thought this latest strain was related to the US anyway and not UK. Unless the BBC is very behind the times and reporting on the cases in SA that were purported to be this strain (and which did come from the UK) And haven't caught up with the latest that it was based on a lie.

There are no winners right now. I am hoping that the Feds might consider reviewing their stance on the vaccines for Australia so that it can be initiated well before March otherwise come our next winter we are so far behind where we should be. We no longer can luxuriate and sit back and say we are fine when this latest cluster and the border closures and confusion proves we simply are not.

Post automatically merged: Dec 21, 2020

Yes Dr Chant was asked about the UK strain this morning and whether we should be refusing arrivals from the UK. She said we had 2 positive cases with that strain in medi hotels but no immediate plans to ban UK arrivals.

Now perhaps the other states could disclose the same info?

SA did and that was why we got completely shut down last month. And it was a true shut down and we weren't allowed out our homes except for pure necessity. No exercise allowed.

 

[Lynda2475]

She did state that NSW based aircrew who self quarantine at home have to be tested on arrival, and if they refuse they cant quarantine at home.

Hope there are no other exemptions, but there have been a scary number of consular staff allowed to self drive from SYD (and other airports) to Canberra to self isolate. no proven cases from these yet, but could just as easily be the link as anything else.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But is this what Victoria intends to do for the next 5 years?

3-6 months I would estimate. That would see front-line staff and vulnerable groups having had, or shortly be due for, vaccinations.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So once the outbreak is squashed you will see very limited booking by Sydney residents interstate. Given the reaction of the premiers no one can book with any confidence while we take so many international arrivals and there's the possibility of another outbreak.

Tell the state premiers (SA, Tasmania and Queensland primarily) to stop wasting their time advertising the wares of their states on TV.

I understand your point better than most.

My business is dependant on free interstate travel.

It was decimated from mid-March till about a month ago. While much reduced, it was building again which was most welcome. The Avalon outbreak has turned the tap off yet again. Hard.


However despite the very quantifiable personal devastation I do support public health measures and a key problem with Avalon is that the source is not known, transmission path is not known and how long it has been out is not known. This means that there is a real risk that it may be much bigger than it is.

It also means that the public health response needs to be greater than it would be if the source and method of initial transmission was known. This is also why NSW Health has rolled out greater and more decisive restrictions than they ever have done before as well. Even Glady's has stated that if she was in the shoes of some of the other Premiers that she would have acted in similar ways.

 

[Lynda2475]

Curious how they know that and we don't.

We do know, they got the information from Dr Chant at the NSW presser this morning. Same time that Australia did.

SA did and that was why we got completely shut down last month. And it was a true shut down and we weren't allowed out our homes except for pure necessity. No exercise allowed.

No that was a different situation, SA Health assumed it was a more virulent strain based on a lie told to them by the pizza guy and then locked down.

Dr Chant was asked whether the strain that is currently circulating in the UK (and is suspected to be more contagious) has been detected in recent UK arrivals here in NSW. She said we had detected 2 cases of that strain so far. Dr Chant confrmed the strain, she did not comment on whether it was indeed more contagious which is still being challenged in the UK given they have had few restrictions.

Why should Greater Sydney or NSW lock down like SA did, because there are two cases of a suspected strain in hotel quarantine. Lets be clear the Avalon cluster is not that UK strain.

I asked whether the other states would disclose if they have any of the UK strain in their quarantine hotels. To my knowledge none have doen this so far including SA.

 

[antycbr]

I understand your point better than most.

My business is dependant on free interstate travel.

It was decimated from mid-March till about a month ago. While much reduced, it was building again which was most welcome. The Avalon outbreak has turned the tap off yet again. Hard.


However despite the very quantifiable personal devastation I do support public health measures and a key problem with Avalon is that the source is not known, transmission path is not known and how long it has been out is not known. This means that there is a real risk that it may be much bigger than it is.

It also means that the public health response need to be greater than it would be if the source and method of initial transmission was known. This is also why NSW Health has rolled out greater and more decisive restrictions than they ever have done before as well. Even Glady's has stated if she was in the shoes of some of the other Premiers that she would have acted in similar ways.

The response to the Northern Beaches was justified as it met the definition of a hotspot. The response to Metro Sydney, and including the south coast, central coast and blue mountains, let alone the entire state of NSW in some cases, is out of proportion.

 

[Pushka]

We do know, they got the infor from Dr Chant at the NSW presser this morning.


No that was a different situation, SA Health assumed it was a more virulent strain based on a lie told to them by the pizza guy.

Dr Chant was asked whether the strain that is currently circulating in the UK (and is suspected ot be more contagious) has been detected in recent UK arrivals here in NSW. She said we had detected 2 cases of that strain. Dr Chnat confrmed the strain, she did not comment on whether it was indeed more contagious which is still being challenged in the UK given they have had few restrictions.

Why should Greater Sydney or NSW lock down like SA did, because there are two cases of a suspected strain in hotel quarantine. Lets be clear the Avalon cluster is not that UK strain.

No, they thought it had a very fast spread rate of a day. It certainly wasn't more virulent as just two people were put into hospital and that was because they were in their eighties. The main comment was that very few showed any symptoms.

The SA issue? When we were locked down it was limited to a very small part of Northern Adelaide. And largely in just one family. The whole state was locked down.

I see It has been noted in news.com.au that an infected person worked in the CBD when contagious.

 

[Lynda2475]

and how long it has been out is not known

Although how long it has been in Avalon is known from Sweage testing, as no traces on 10th Dec, and the spread event was on the 11th. So we know infections in Northern Beaches started on 11th Dec.

 

[Must...Fly!]

" But there remain questions about whether it is any more infectious at all.
"The amount of evidence in the public domain is woefully inadequate to draw strong or firm opinions on whether the virus has truly increased transmission," said Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham."

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck....you can't be sure it's a duck, but blow me down if it isn't a great way to extend the deadline on brexit negotiations

 

[Lynda2475]

No, they thought it had a very fast spread rate of a day.

Totally irrelevant to the question re the UK strain which has never been detected in the community in NSW only in quatantine.

So the UK strain presence in hotel quarntine should have zero bearing on what is happening with the Avlon cluster or any decision re Sydney hot spot status, unless it somehow gets into the community.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes Dr Chant was asked about the UK strain this morning and whether we should be refusing arrivals from the UK. She said we had 2 positive cases with that strain in medi hotels but no immediate plans to ban UK arrivals.

Now perhaps the other states could disclose the same info?

They already do.

All the CHO's freely make available the genomic results to each other. Indeed I think they there is now a national database that they all access. The sequencing matches to all know strains. The problem is that some countries like the USA do not sequence a high proportion of their cases.

When asked at the pressers the various CHO's (not sure the WA one is allowed to speak often though!), just like Chant answer questions on the source of strains. It was asked and replied to in the recent SA outbreak. Certainly I have heard the CHO's from SA, Vic, Qld and NSW speak on it...plus the NS one too.

The Doherty Institute has also pumped out various reports on it the genomic sequencing and source of strains, including the one on Victoria's second wave with 4 main strains (one being dominant, one being notable and the other two insignificant).

 

[SydneySwan]

So once the outbreak is squashed you will see very limited booking by Sydney residents interstate. Given the reaction of the premiers no one can book with any confidence while we take so many international arrivals and there's the possibility of another outbreak.

Tell the state premiers (SA, Tasmania and Queensland primarily) to stop wasting their time advertising the wares of their states on TV.

Indeed. At Mrs SS prompting I had been busy planning / booking a road trip along the Great Ocean Road in Victoria for first week of Feb. Ever cautious I had only made fully refundable bookings which of course I have now cancelled. We are now planning a trip around Western NSW instead. Fortunately NSW is quite a big state so plenty of places we haven't been to yet.