Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

True, what everyone should do is really a 7 ring process instead of 2-3, for added safety*

*7 degrees of separation is a worldwide lockdown according to the Kevin Bacon theory

Lol...I mentioned Kevin Bacon previously ....It’s actually 6 degrees and I previously suggested it is manifested by border restrictions

 

[Gremlin]

Vic went beyond second ring and locked down the whole state. The second ring imo has yet to prove worthwhile as no cases detected in it but a hell of a lot of people impacted. If its so effective they would have stood by it not gone statewide.

The recent media criticism of Vic contract tracers has been that they have not been contacting 100% of close contacts (1st ring) within 48 hours. Its super important to contact all close contacts asap preferably within 24 hours, as that is where the greatest risk is.

Vic also refused contract tracing help offered by feds (despite exceeding the 48hr window). It looks like in some cases they started in on second ring before talking to all close contacts.

NSW both SMS and call all close contacts of positive cases, and put these into 14 days ISO irrespective of test result.

For causual contacts (people at same venue on same day for a short period) they SMS using service nsw app and direct them to get tested, and isolate until test results received. Anyone getting tested at request of NSW health shows the SMS notification at test centre so can be flagged for priority processing.

Its true NSW dont extend restrictions or tracing further as a rule, however in this case they did contact all NSW residents who had visited MEL airport on the exposure day, and also issued a public health order requiring then to get tested and isolate for period of Vic lockdown. Result was no cases btw.

Plus messaging in NSW has been clear and timely, so many not required to test, voluntarily test if they have symptoms. Test numbers > 20k last few days which is high considering over 2 incubation periods since last community case.

I dont see a need for NSW to do more when they meet the metrics for contacting the close contacts which are the highest risk and there hasnt been any dire consequences from the way we manage things, with the benefit of more certainty less mental angusih.

Gonna make the observation that NSW didn't meet the standards you have asserted they are consistently meeting in December and I didn't get Christmas with my family as a result.

Contact tracing is incredibly, incredibly difficult. NSW didn't get it right at the start of Avalon and my family (and many others) paid a price for that. Melbourne didn't get it right now and people have paid a price for that. I think we'd all wish it'd be right 100% of the time, but every jurisdiction has made mistakes with it because it's an imprecise science.

BTW, as I understand it, one of the three cases today in Victoria were initially identified second ring contacts (who obviously became first ring at some point).

EDIT: I originally said two of the three cases were initially second ring. It was only one. Adult and child were identified as close contacts and spouse of said adult was identified as second ring - I'd originally heard that the child was a second ring contact, but they were a primary contact

 

[Lynda2475]

So were you a close contact of a Avalon positive and not called within 48 hours? Dr Chant consistently quoted as 48 hour metric met for close contacts. Or did your own state restrict your movements?

Except for NNB you could travel into SNB for xmas eve, xmas day and boxing day (SNB couldnt leave NB).

NSW border was open, NSW always stays as open as possible (border only closed once and that was to Vic only after they started exceeding 100 cases a day), it was other states who closed border to whole state or whole of greater Sydney their choice but not NSW contract tracers fault.

Not sure why that makes the post you quoted which was about the latest Vic cluster incorrect? Do you have a source for NSW exceeding 48hrs for close contacts this year? Or that they didnt contract all air arrivals from MEL as zdr Chwnt said?

The automated SMS for casuals is only possible since Service NSW app was mandated.

 

[jakeseven7]

Gonna make the observation that NSW didn't meet the standards you have asserted they are consistently meeting in December and I didn't get Christmas with my family as a result.

Contact tracing is incredibly, incredibly difficult. NSW didn't get it right at the start of Avalon and my family (and many others) paid a price for that. Melbourne didn't get it right now and people have paid a price for that. I think we'd all wish it'd be right 100% of the time, but every jurisdiction has made mistakes with it because it's an imprecise science.

BTW, as I understand it, one of the three cases today in Victoria were initially identified second ring contacts (who obviously became first ring at some point).

EDIT: I originally said two of the three cases were initially second ring. It was only one. Adult and child were identified as close contacts and spouse of said adult was identified as second ring - I'd originally heard that the child was a second ring contact, but they were a primary contact

Sorry that you guys got caught up in the NSW outbreak and mess No state has perfected contact tracing that’s for sure, all have had major misses but suffice to say in Australia at least VIC and NSW have it as much in hand as we could hope for now. We now just need to jab everyone as fast as we possibly can.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Sorry that you guys got caught up in the NSW outbreak and mess No state has perfected contact tracing that’s for sure, all have had major misses but suffice to say in Australia at least VIC and NSW have it as much in hand as we could hope for now. We now just need to jab everyone as fast as we possibly can.

....And keep jabbing boosters every 6 months.

NSW Health weekly surveillance reports indicate all close contacts for Avalon cluster were contacted within 48 hours

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Gonna make the observation that NSW didn't meet the standards you have asserted they are consistently meeting in December and I didn't get Christmas with my family as a result.

Contact tracing is incredibly, incredibly difficult. NSW didn't get it right at the start of Avalon and my family (and many others) paid a price for that. Melbourne didn't get it right now and people have paid a price for that. I think we'd all wish it'd be right 100% of the time, but every jurisdiction has made mistakes with it because it's an imprecise science.

BTW, as I understand it, one of the three cases today in Victoria were initially identified second ring contacts (who obviously became first ring at some point).

EDIT: I originally said two of the three cases were initially second ring. It was only one. Adult and child were identified as close contacts and spouse of said adult was identified as second ring - I'd originally heard that the child was a second ring contact, but they were a primary contact

Of the recent outbreaks in NSW and Vic, only NSW has had unknown transmission chains out in the community beyond the first case. And indeed with the cluster in Vic it is known who patient zero is. The Blackrock Outbreak also was contained well.

In the current cluster in Vic after the initial quarantine workers all remaining cases have been found by directing people to be tested. This is very important as it greatly minimises., or even totally removes the time that an infected person is out in the community. NSW had numerous cases found by people presenting to be tested, some remained unlinked and some were linked after the test.

Contact tracing that directs people to get tested and then discovers the positive cases is clearly working better than contact tracing that finds links after positive results have walked in off the street.

Now NSW Health is doing a good job, but in recent times it would seem to be not delivering as well on the metric of identifying cases before the person fronts up as they have symptoms. Not to mention the asymptomatic spreaders who never went to get tested as they were quite simply never found by the contact tracers. That means more people are out an about while infectious for longer periods. So if one is happy with what NSW Health is achieving, then why when the bottom line is limiting transmission in the community would one not be ok with what contact tracing has actually delivered in Victoria from October on?

I just do not get the logic of saying that the contact tracing is better if it is not finding as many as cases as a proportion before they are infectious.

 

[Lynda2475]

When did Vic find patient zero for black rock? Never been published that ive seen, only genomically to NSW (but not directly to an individual). All the NSW cases were also genomically linked to either the transport driver (who infected his colleague who stopped at BWS Berala) or the mystery patient zero.

I also dispute your claim NSW hasnt detected any cases before they were infectious. NSW health has directly sent close contacts (family members and work colleagues) to be tested, and found positives quickly, to assert otherwise is just wrong. They also issued health orders to all 7000 who returned from Vic on day of MEL exposure (and followed up to ensure they were tested), now none were positive but had any of them been they would have been detected.

Beyond that when you can get 70k people to get tested voluntarily on one day at xmas based on a media request you understand there is more than one way to find cases.

I get that you love the 2nd ring even though Vic didnt actually trust it in current case and proceeded to lock down the entire state. But its been proven they failed to contact all the close contacts (those at highest risk) in 48 hours, a whole state locked down to find 1 case outside first ring, which by your logic they would have found anyway without causing a $1B economic damage, had they stuck with the lauded 2nd ring process.

Thankfully NSW favours pragmatism and balances the needs of the many above 1 case. NsW has also continued to take international arrivals, even during our largest cluster.

Statewide lockdowns and closing to international arrivals for a handful of linked cases is not a sustainble nor proportionate response.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Statewide lockdowns and closing to international arrivals for a handful of linked cases is not a sustainble nor proportionate response.

And in just a few weeks time when front-line and vulnerable people are vaccinated, hopefully we'll see less of a need for those measures. I don't think much will change until that initial round of vaccinations is complete.

 

[dajop]

Can we stop with this interstate stuff? And leave that to the political hacks and/or attention grabbing media.

Just get a grip and see what is happening in the rest of the world. The human suffering and economic damage in all but a handful of countries is worse than in Australia, even after considering what happened in Victoria between July and October.

Whether we agree or disagree with the approach of Dan or Gladys since April (GB) and September (DA) the governments over which they preside have done a great job compared to what’s happened in most places.

 

[Lynda2475]

And in just a few weeks time when front-line and vulnerable people are vaccinated, hopefully we'll see less of a need for those measures. I don't think much will change until that initial round of vaccinations is complete

If that is Andrew's plan he would have agreed to criteria for accepting arrivals again instead of actively campaigning via the media to want the whole country to discriminate against Aussie citizens based on his definition of who is deserving, a guy who seems largely incapable of showing compassion.

I think you are being overly optimistic if you expect Andrews to start accepting *any* risk (unless its a sports person). Also going to be much longer than a couple of weeks to vaccinate all the HQ workers, frontline medical workers and vulnerable people. In current plan only aged or immuno compromised people in facilities (not those living independently) are in phase 1.

 

[Lynda2475]

Just get a grip and see what is happening in the rest of the world

Precisely the reason not to over react and lock people down as if what is happening overseas is happening here. Australia would have to fling open the international borders and disband quarantine on arrival altogether to justify the fear mongering that is going on.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

And in just a few weeks time when front-line and vulnerable people are vaccinated, hopefully we'll see less of a need for those measures. I don't think much will change until that initial round of vaccinations is complete.

If the vaccine increases spread, we might have a numbers issue. Asymptomatic vaccinated quarantine worker gives to asymptomatic unvaccinated family/household who in turn give to unvaccinated unrelated community members causing some symptoms. Not saying it will definitely happen but it’s not been ruled out yet. We don’t know the effect of vaccines on spread.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If the vaccine increases spread, we might have a numbers issue. Asymptomatic vaccinated quarantine worker gives to asymptomatic unvaccinated family/household who in turn give to unvaccinated unrelated community members causing some symptoms. Not saying it will definitely happen but it’s not been ruled out yet. We don’t know the effect of vaccines on spread.

Maybe. But will that matter?

If asymptomatic vaccinated worker gives it to unvaccinated family who then gives it to:

(a) vaccinated vulnerable person = no severe disease
(b) fit and healthy unvaccinated person = small chance of severe disease, but will probably pull through ok.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Can we stop with this interstate stuff? And leave that to the political hacks and/or attention grabbing media.

Just get a grip and see what is happening in the rest of the world. The human suffering and economic damage in all but a handful of countries is worse than in Australia, even after considering what happened in Victoria between July and October.

Whether we agree or disagree with the approach of Dan or Gladys since April (GB) and September (DA) the governments over which they preside have done a great job compared to what’s happened in most places.

The Andrews government has not done a great job. Most of the protection we have is due to the closed international border. At the state level, comparison with other states is the only relevant metric

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Maybe. But will that matter?

If asymptomatic vaccinated worker gives it to unvaccinated family who then gives it to:

(a) vaccinated vulnerable person = no severe disease
(b) fit and healthy unvaccinated person = small chance of severe disease, but will probably pull through ok.

Yes, it will matter, but hopefully only for the short term

Phase 1a is scheduled for 6 weeks. Phase 1b also contains vulnerable - say 4 weeks.

The 12 weeks for 2nd dose. Then say 3 weeks to get full effect.

Total of 25 weeks of borders restrictions / lockdowns coming and going.

Not to mention if a new more dangerous variant comes along in 3-6 months.

Then the vulnerable will need boosters, etc

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Whether we agree or disagree with the approach of Dan or Gladys since April (GB) and September (DA) the governments over which they preside have done a great job compared to what’s happened in most places.

Very true!

Looking at the stats from today, 19 Feb, the number of deaths from covid per million population ranges from 1900 in Belgium to 1400 in Moldova. 1500 deaths per million is about average.

For Australia that would have meant some 37,000 deaths. In one year.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Yes, it will matter, but hopefully only for the short term

Phase 1a is scheduled for 6 weeks. Phase 1b also contains vulnerable - say 4 weeks.

The 12 weeks for 2nd dose. Then say 3 weeks to get full effect.

Total of 25 weeks of borders restrictions / lockdowns coming and going.

Not to mention if a new more dangerous variant comes along in 3-6 months.

Then the vulnerable will need boosters, etc

Some promising news out of Israel: COVID-19: New study reveals how effective Pfizer's vaccine is after the first dose

 

[lovetravellingoz]

When did Vic find patient zero for black rock?

Who are you referring to?

Not one of my comments.

I also dispute your claim NSW hasnt detected any cases before they were infectious.

You are disputing a claim that I actually did not make.

What I said was NSW had numerous cases found by people presenting to be tested, some remained unlinked and some were linked after the test.

ie The couple that presented to the emergency department: a man in his 40s who presented at Mount Druitt Hospital on Saturday with respiratory illness, along with one of his household contacts.

They were not found through contact tracing. They were found by being tested. Both the Berala and Avalon Clusters had community cases who were not in quarantine/isolation and were discovered only by the people presenting for testing, or being tested when they presented for care.



PS: Again I personally am of the view that none of Vic, Qld, WA or SA should have locked down in their latest outbreaks and said so at the time. Some lockdown measures were warranted with NSW as they had multiple unknown community transmission chains, seeded Victoria and had positive case arrive into Qld but who fortunately failed to infect anyone.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Maybe. But will that matter?

If asymptomatic vaccinated worker gives it to unvaccinated family who then gives it to:

(a) vaccinated vulnerable person = no severe disease
(b) fit and healthy unvaccinated person = small chance of severe disease, but will probably pull through ok.

I guess one factor will be how many people will choose to not be vaccinated, and also that some people will not be able to be vaccinated and in both of these groups there will be people vulnerable to CV19.

Now some may choose not to be vaccinated and bare the risk. But others will be prevented from taking the vaccine and will be vulnerable.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Whether we agree or disagree with the approach of Dan or Gladys since April (GB) and September (DA) the governments over which they preside have done a great job compared to what’s happened in most places.

That more succinctly than I put, was my point.



The virus is going to leak out of quarantine or come in via air or sea crews. We have seen this in both NZ and Australia in multiple jurisdictions. And hopefully as more and more is learnt and practices evolve and get tightened, it will continue to be less and less likely. But it will keep happening,

What matters is that once it does leak, that it does it then get controlled. Since October in Australia it has been. And NZ too has squashed all of their outbreaks.