Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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If the vaccine increases spread, we might have a numbers issue. Asymptomatic vaccinated quarantine worker gives to asymptomatic unvaccinated family/household who in turn give to unvaccinated unrelated community members causing some symptoms. Not saying it will definitely happen but it’s not been ruled out yet. We don’t know the effect of vaccines on spread.
But the Oxford vaccine reduces transmission (spread ) after the first shot.
 
But the Oxford vaccine reduces transmission (spread ) after the first shot.

Which is similar to the initial pfizer results from Israel? Excerpt from link I posted above:

The workers each received their first dose in January and the research team observed an 85% reduction of clinical (symptomatic) COVID-19 between 15 and 28 days after the jab.​

But critically, they also observed efficacy in asymptomatic patients.​
The study found that all infections, including asymptomatic, were reduced by 75% after the first dose.​
 
What I said was NSW had numerous cases found by people presenting to be tested, some remained unlinked and some were linked after the test.

NSW had few of these wheras Vic had hundreds of such cases. You like to keep measuring from October to ignore the basket case that Vic was, then nitpick on NSW for finding cases by testing rather than predicting every single case, again ignoring fact that the worker who seeded a lot of the current cases did so at a function after workplace test results were read wrong and told they were negative.

You bring up NSW seeding Black Rock (no serious consequences) forgetting Vic seeded Crossways, Batemans Bay and Thai Rock, the last death in NSW was due to Vic seeding. Yes an unknowingly positive NB NSW case went to QLD, but you neglect to mention she acted immediately on NSW health advice to test (which proved difficult in Qld at the time) and returned home (driving herself so not risking others) - so no reason to close border, when you can target people who have been in areas of concern (via a mix of tracing and public health orders and meda / community communications).

I like most in NSW are ok with finding extra cases via testing its the whole reason its offered. Its better than locking a whole state down because you are scared there might be a single case. If you only test those you identify through tracing, you increase risk, as someone may not have checked in or forgot who visited a house - people lie, free no fault testing has been a key sucess. The need to book a test appointment in some states is a deterrent. In NSW you just turn up. Having a nsw health order to get tested bumps your sample up the queue for results processing but all (even asymptomatic hypercondriacs) can get tested.

Yes Australia has done brilliantly on a world scale but it predominantly due to closed international border and HQ and the abject failures of many other countries to take any action until things were crticial. Its not hard to look good comparing oneself to countries who didnt take any real action.

The only international comparison relevant to Australia are those who took similar swift action early on arrivals, hwve check ins and good testing. That means NZ, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand not USA, Brazil, UK.

BUT it becuase we are an island and can effectively reduce most risk of the virus being reseeded from arrivals, we can be less restrictive domestically.

At a state level the performance (and impact of decisons) varies widely, so comparison is relevant. We should be ashamed of the majority of state border closures, as a gross over reaction. We should be apalled at Premiers denigrating fellow Australians living in another state or overseas, shame them for being insular and making lazy choices of shutting down rather than tackling shortcomings in HQ (proper PPE especially) earlier. Our economic recovery should have been quicker and damage to domestic tourism far less.

I do not think history will look kindly on one state comprising 27% of population being responsible for 90% of deaths and 70% cases and not taking fair share of arrivals (and risk). We will be paying for the poor choices of the Premiers in terms of huge debt, job losses and mental scars for a very long time. Those who will have to service that debt and had their livelihoods decimated will continue to be burdened with results of disproportionate responses.

Vacccine or no when breaches at quarantine happen (or international borders reopen) there will be cases, and some of those cases may still be serious, some people may still die. We have to accept some risk and do everything we can to keep thing open domestically, not have rolling uncertainty and forever waiting for unrealistic goal of zero.

I am sceptical given past and present behaviour of Vic, WA and Qld Premiers in particular that vaccine roll-out is going to see any material change to their attitudes toward risk this year.

Life is riddled with risk, we need proportionate risk responses, otherwise we arent living. Im sick of parts of life being unnecessarily on hold. Im sick of being unable to reliably plan because of inconsistent behaviour of other states.

For me personally even though i live in NSW the Vic shutdowns saw me firstly miss out on a promotion because of being unable to reliably travel there, then a few months later lose my job altogether. And I am only one of a very many who remain critical of the ineptitude initially and then over reaction lately having far reaching impacts well outside Vics own backyard.
 
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NSW had few of these wheras Vic had hundreds of such cases. You like to keep measuring from October to ignore the basket case that Vic was,
We are talking about the recent period and what is done now and not since the start of the pandemic, and so your statement is not accurate.

I am speaking about from October as that is when the second ring technique has been deployed from in Victoria and so it is a pretty clear delineator in my view. The start of the second wave is simply not relevant to performance now, and what is being done is different in so many ways.

Another delineator will be the testing of aircrew and quarantine staff. This is picking up leakages before they can really spread and /or even prevent spread.

Just as with the Road Toll Campaign there are a number of actions that combine to reduce infections. Some are more impactful than others. International Border Restrictions being the first significant one. For Vic in particular the second ring technique has been a major step.


PS. I do not know why you keep referring to border closures in replies to me as I have repeatedly posted my personal view is that none of the recent closures to outbreaks in in Vic, WA, Qld or SA should have occurred. The exception is the NSW outbreaks as they had unknown transmission chains. Border closures and severe lockdowns in my view should not be implemented if there are not unknown transmission chains.

However while that is my view, others including various CHO's and government officials prefer the more cautious approach to prevent mixing. I disagree with them, but that is what it is.
 
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My statement is accurate, i didnt time bound it you are choosing to. And if you want to play the second ring card you have to actually rely on it and not shutdown well in excess of the second ring. Andrews lacks compassion and makes panicky decisions which harm more than they help.

Second ring has found 1 case this round hardly a great advertisement for the benefit.
 
Life is riddled with risk, we need proportionate risk responses, otherwise we arent living. Im sick of parts of life being unnecessarily on hold. Im sick of being unable to reliably plan because of inconsistent behaviour of other states.

For me personally even though i live in NSW the Vic shutdowns saw me firstly miss out on a promotion because of being unable to reliably travel there, then a few months later lose my job altogether.

I just wanted to really sorry that the covid border restrictions had this impact on you, truly. And for me it puts a lot of your postings now in a very different perspective given the high personal cost it has had on you personally.

I think also of the family of the truck driver killed because the SA government put up a completely unnecessary border, sloppily and with no management system in place.

I think also of the families of the people including children that died in NSW unnecessarily because of QLD's horrific stance on ruling out compassionate medical care border exemptions for those living on the NSW/QLD border.

I also think of the families of the elderly people who passed in VIC ahead of their time because of the second wave being missed as it blended into the end of the first.

My point is that there is hurt all around and even when governments are literally killing people directly because of their actions (SA in particular is a disgrace and the most recent) I honestly don't see any of the states changing their tunes now UNTIL there is at least a vaccination of the at risk groups. As much as I, you, everyone disagrees with their approach, I just don't see them backing down from it until then.
 
For me personally even though i live in NSW the Vic shutdowns saw me firstly miss out on a promotion because of being unable to reliably travel there, then a few months later lose my job altogether.

My commiserations.

As I have mentioned before the pandemic has affected people in many different ways and especially financially. Some have made more money than ever, some about the same and some a great deal less. And other have had negative issues to do with say health/mental health issues, as well as social disruption of weddings/funerals/family etc.

With my small business I have had to wipe out a full year's worth of income with not one project delivered in 2020, and so I share your pain. As have many others like say Pushka who has also mentioned how her business has been devastated.

I am just back from actually delivering a project in Qld , my first completed project since late 2019. It was nice to actually be working properly again and it also had the side-benefit that I avoided the lockdown in Vic plus delivery the project meant that I avoided going into liquidation which has been a daily worry since at least before last June. Starting each day and having to assess is today the day I go into liquidation, or not, is not good for one's stress levels, but is certainly a key reason why I have monitored things as closely as I have done so. This week is the first time in nine months that I do not have the Liquidation Monkey on my back.

However the outlook remains grim for 2021, as it does for many who are in the wrong sector. To operate is a huge financial risk at present for myself as it could mean taking on costs that may never be recouped, and as a director of a company I cannot do so. And there are only so many ways to juggle things if the cash is not coming.

However luckily I am 60 with no debts, good assets tucked away and so that means I am better off than many even though 2020 was a annus horribilis for me. I may well just retire soon now instead.
 
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You seem to be failing to understand that the key benefit of the second ring process if swiftly deployed is that it swiftly ends transmission chains. It prevents cases.

I understand your point what i doubt is the degree of benefit (teeny tiny) vs the wider damage of locking down thousands more people. The media hype when there is a community case combined with health orders to test mean any residual cases are mopped up without inflicting undue stress and harm. Vic's own voluntary test rates also support this.

The 2nd ring doesnt take into consideration if those people were wearing masks or taking other precautions before locking down people twice removed from a genuine exposure event.

NSW doesnt have 2nd ring and isnt suffering adversely for not doing so. Despite all the arm waving and whinging from Vic (and some other states) we have never been in a Victorian wave 2 state of chaos. Even our largest 2 clusters, NB and Thai rock resulted in less than 5 hospitalisations combined. There have been tweaks, but in NSW we know lockdowns will be highly targeted and based on actual threat.

Those who most support extreme measures of statewide lockdowns and hard state borders are those who live insular lives or have not been impacted directly, and those (like Andrews) who have no compassion for other peoples circumstances.
 
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what i doubt is the degree of benefit (teeny tiny) vs the wider damage of locking down thousands more

Unfortunately there are some people who cannot see any middle ground whatsoever, which basically blinds them to the very real damage being suffered by others:

Looking at the stats from today, 19 Feb, the number of deaths from covid per million population ranges from 1900 in Belgium to 1400 in Moldova. 1500 deaths per million is about average.

For Australia that would have meant some 37,000 deaths. In one year.
And it's not only the mentally feeble, we even have PhDs on this thread spruiking moronic parochial babble.
 
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I am just back from actually delivering a project in Qld , my first completed project since late 2019.
We are aiming for our first day of consulting in Melbourne in early March for a year. Think we are reconciled that it will require testing on return but hopefully not quarantine for the full 14 days.
 
In securing a new job, I was very cautious to only consider employers whose Australian head office was in Sydney and had sufficient core customer base in NSW so as to minimise further immediate risk to my career due to overkill decisions in other states. I am privileged not to be in debt and had good savings to find the right match. I was offered remote WFH roles for a Vic based company and a national consulting firm but both wanted me to WFH full time indefinitely (shows low condifence for return to normal) so i declined in favour of somewhere actively looking to find a new normal.

I've just finished second week of being back in an office full time and its so wonderful to see real (not virtual) people every day, feel the buzz of a city being revived.

The difference in mood (energised vs depressed) and outlook (confidence vs uncertainty) between our Sydney based team vs the Melbourne ones is huge.

I also had virtual drinks last night with a bunch of my old team from the job i lost (most were based in Vic), not one of them supported the latest Vic wide lockdown, and one has recently moved to regional North Coast of NSW to be free from draconian measures which are becoming too common. Of the people i have kept in touch with who also lost their job when i did (or in the earlier round) all of those who were in NSW, ACT and Qld have secured new jobs, where as only 1/3 of the Vic ones have. That is very telling wrt business confidence and investment.

34 days of no local cases in NSW today, every day atm is a new record, which i hope continues to build.
 
We are aiming for our first day of consulting in Melbourne in early March for a year. Think we are reconciled that it will require testing on return but hopefully not quarantine for the full 14 days.

I've been travelling non stop pretty much and trust me there are creative ways to border hop if things get dire ;)

I'm sure you will be fine and great news!
 
I've been travelling non stop pretty much and trust me there are creative ways to border hop if things get dire ;)

I'm sure you will be fine and great news!
We went to Qld 2 weeks early to allow for a quarantine, lockdown, or lockout.

As it turned out 2 of those happened and so being prudent paid off. But it all adds to your overheads.
 
Albury and Wodonga have been divided in half by one government or the other since the middle of 2020. Neither side has had any particular incidence of covid. Albury has been largely lockdown free, and had the minimal NSW rules. Wodonga has suffered through a number of lockdowns, and there have been so many variations on the restrictions that nobody has any idea of what they currently are.

Businesses on both sides of the border have been devastated. As soon as one state finishes having its ‘go’, the other mob get in with their own restrictions, so there is no recovery. Albury has learnt that 60% of it’s business comes from south of the border, with a catchment that extends well south. This was not helped by the utterly thoughtless location of the Victorian border checkpoints, which closed off access to open businesses, even thought there were kms of open space they could have used. No compensation for them, of course.
 
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