Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 Crashes in Kazakhstan

Looks like an embraer? I wonder what could possibly have caused that, it looks like it was going very slow and not really being controlled, maybe a problem with hydraulics?

Maybe it would have been better to ditch in the water?
 
Images circulating on SM this morning show fuselage/tail surfaces damage that looks eerily like MH17


1735152045869.png
 
jukebox333 said:
Images circulating on SM this morning show fuselage/tail surfaces damage that looks eerily like MH17


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MH17 was tragically blown out of the sky by one or more SAM(s).

This was intact on final approach but obviously had some serious issues to contend with (which I would defer to the pilot exerts). It would be horribly unfortunate if a bird strike followed by some sort of ground machine gun fire caused the end result…😳

Edit: extraordinary (miracle?) that ~29 survived and some were able to rescue others.
 
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SCM said:
Looks like an embraer? I wonder what could possibly have caused that, it looks like it was going very slow and not really being controlled, maybe a problem with hydraulics?
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It looks like an aircraft that is being flown by manipulation of the power alone, and loss of hydraulics will leave you in that situation. A landing with any survivors at all is a great outcome in that case.
SCM said:
Maybe it would have been better to ditch in the water?
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Water is not soft, and anyone who survives the impact is in immediate danger of drowning.
SYD said:
MH17 was tragically blown out of the sky by one or more SAM(s).
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The holes in the tail sure look like what you'd expect from a proximity burst to the rear of the aircraft.
SYD said:
This was intact on final approach but obviously had some serious issues to contend with (which I would defer to the pilot exerts). It would be horribly unfortunate if a bird strike followed by some sort of ground machine gun fire caused the end result…
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There is no way this is the result of a bird strike.
 
jb747 said:
It looks like an aircraft that is being flown by manipulation of the power alone, and loss of hydraulics will leave you in that situation. A landing with any survivors at all is a great outcome in that case.
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As also noted by Juan Browne:
 
That is a very strange flight profile.

As I understand it, GRV was affected by fog and so the aircraft may have diverted elsewhere. But why choose a third country to divert to? Surely if it was just a simple diversion due Wx effects at the destination, then a return to GYD would have been flown.

There is also the tight orbit in the vicinity of Ardon in the FR24 image. It’s the area most western in the image. I believe that to be inaccurate. When you play through the flight, the timing should be consistent with the aircraft being close to GRV. It may have been manoeuvring to divert or just making an assessment of the weather. Either way, the aircraft appears to still be under normal control at that point.

Later on the approach track into SCO looks to be a struggle for control and the video above confirms as much.

That tail image above is disturbing. Could the tail plane have been fragged by the explosion on landing or the effects of the impact? Probably not to that extent…

If there was an attack on the aircraft, the fact there are plenty of survivors should mean a pretty comprehensive account of events can be compiled.
 
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The truth may be hard to establish. If ever.
From AVHerald "Due to GPS jamming and spoofing in the region existing radar data do not tell the true flight path and can not be used to analyse the aircraft's problems."

<snio>
Kazakhstan's Vice Minister of Transport stated, that the aircraft made two turns in the airport area after entering Kazakh airspace and hit ground on the third turn.

Kazakhstan's Ministry for Emergency Situations reported Aktau Airport reported at 11:00L, that an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190 was inbound to Aktau having declared emergency and heading to Aktau. The landing was estimated for 11:25L. At 11:30L information was received that the aircraft had impacted ground about 3km from the airport. By 11:45L the fire was contained and by 12:05L extinguished. By 14:10 29 people had been taken to hospitals. Rescuers as well as investigators from Azerbaijan have already arrived in Aktau.

As of current there are some political and military agendas and propagandas going on trying to blame the accident on a shoot down by air defense in Russia or attackers onto Russia (explaining the holes visible in the vertical tail were caused by shrapnell), not identifying however whether this should have happened in Grozny or Makhachkala.

Due to GPS jamming and spoofing in the region existing radar data do not tell the true flight path and can not be used to analyse the aircraft's problems.
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Scarlett said:
That is a very strange flight profile.

As I understand it, GRV was affected by fog and so the aircraft may have diverted elsewhere. But why choose a third country to divert to? Surely if it was just a simple diversion due Wx effects at the destination, then a return to GYD would have been flown.
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It may have started as a simple diversion, but then converted into a fight for control of the aircraft. There probably wasn't as much choice involved as you imagine. BTW, you don't generally return to the start point in any diversion. There should be closer alternatives
Scarlett said:
That tail image above is disturbing. Could the tail plane have been fragged by the explosion on landing or the effects of the impact? Probably not to that extent…
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Lots of small holes, all going through in the same direction is consistent with a proximity burst of a fragmentation warhead. It isn't landing damage. Some of the video from inside the cabin (taking it with a grain of salt) also appears to show some penetrations.
Scarlett said:
If there was an attack on the aircraft, the fact there are plenty of survivors should mean a pretty comprehensive account of events can be compiled.
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Perhaps.
 
Mwenenzi said:
The truth may be hard to establish. If ever.
From AVHerald "Due to GPS jamming and spoofing in the region existing radar data do not tell the true flight path and can not be used to analyse the aircraft's problems."
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If you follow AV herald the truth will be hard to establish, it’s like Wikipedia in the early days!
GPS jamming doesn’t affect Radar, it affects data coming from the plane via transponders. Aktau has TAR and SSR in addition to ADSB, and unlike ADSB the TAR would show other airborne “objects”.

The blackboxes will probably provide the best info in addition to the fuselage holes, apparently the plane followed a similar path to a drone attack at the same time, with the Russians using Pantsir SAMs. Some confusion in the cabin:

https://www.pprune.org/members/275509-liider
08:11:50
e: AXY8243 proceeding to Baku.

08:11:58
d: AXY8243 with current heading, climb to 900 m
e: With current heading, climb to 900 m AXY8243

08:12:12
d: AXY8243 confirm, are you diverting to Baku as an alternate?
e: Confirm, we're leaving for Baku, backup AXY8243

08:12:29
d: AXY8243 First dial FL80 , and tell me if you can head straight to Pinta?
e: Dial FL80 , we'll tell you now AXY8243

08:12:48
e: AXY8243 Both GPS's are lost, we need vectoring.
d: AXY8243 Got it, right course 360.
e: Right course 360 AXY8243 Thank you.

08:14:15
d: AXY8243 dial FL150
u: Dial FL150 (inaudible) AXY8243
d: AXY8243 and increase climb
u: Increasing climb AXY8243
.....
08:16:05
u: Our controls have failed, bird strike in the cabin. Bird strike in the cabin (inaudible)

08:16:16
d: AXY8243 Got it, what kind of assistance do you need?

08:16:41
u: What's the weather like in Mineralnye Vody, please assist.
d: AXY8243 at 16 minute.
u: I don't understand
d: AXY8243 at 16 minute.
u: What at 16 minute?
d: AXY8243 repeat your message, I can't hear you well.

08:17:15
d: AXY8243 is it okay?
e: All right, proceeding to Mineralnye Vody.
d: AXY8243 copy, proceed on current heading until command.
e: Understood, proceed on current heading until command. Please, request weather Mineralnye Vody.
d: AXY8243 hold, climb to FL150 .
e: Climbing to FL150 .

08:18:29
d: AXY8243 execute left orbit.
e: Cannot execute, control is lost. Give us vectoring to Mineralnye Vody, and please give us weather Mineralnye Vody.
d: AXY8243 copy, hold. Left heading 030
e: Left heading 030

08:19:12
e: I can't maintain 150, we have increased cabin pressure
d: AXY8243 copy.

08:20:27
d: AXY8243 left heading 360
e: Left 360, my airplane is losing control.

d: AXY8243 for information weather Min-Vody: wind 120g, 6 m/s, visibility over 10 km, solid cloud cover base 180m, QNH1024hPa, band 11 in operation
e: Give us Makhachkala.

08:21:20
e: And Makhachkala.
d: AXY8243 decided to proceed to Makhachkala?
e: Yes sir, give me the weather forecast for Makhachkala.
d: AXY8243 stand by.

08:22:12
d: AXY8243 turn right course 110.
d: AXY8243 Grozny Tower.
e: On reception
d: AXY8243 turn right course 140.

08:22:57
e: Now the hydraulics have failed

08:23:03
d AXY8243 Grozny Tower.
e: On reception, we have a hydraulic failure.
d: AXY8243 roger. Can you follow the courses?
e: No, we can't. Give us a specific course, we'll go to Makhachkala.
d: AXY8243 left course 100, correction to the right course 100.
e: Right course 100. Makhachkala weather.

08:23:42
d: AXY8243 Makhachkala weather: wind 310 deg 2 m/s, visibility 3300, lower edge 750m, haze QNH1026hPa, runway in operation 32
e: Roger

08:24:26
d: AXY8243 confirm, have you declared a distress signal?
e: (Inaudible) did not understand (inaudible)

08:24:43
e: AXY8243 repeat.
d: AXY8243 is the aircraft okay?
e: The aircraft is okay.

08:24:55
e: Allow us to (inaudible)
d: AXY8243 repeat
e: (inaudible)

08:25:09
d: AXY8243 you are unintelligible, repeat your message.
e: (inaudible)

08:25:30
e: AXY8243 how was the reception? On reception
d: AXY8243 Grozny Tower receiving, we can hear you very poorly.
e: (inaudible)

08:25:47
e: AXY8243 permission to proceed at this altitude.
d: AXY8243 I do not see you on the control tower this morning, please advise your altitude.

08:26:10
E: Our altitude is 80
D: AXY8243 try to reach FL100
E: If we can.

08:27:00
D: AXY8243 Grozny Tower
E: On reception AXY8243
D: AXY8243 work Rostov Control 134.1
E: Rostov Control 134.1 AXY8243
 
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Has been some talk that the diversion could have caused confusion to the local air defence teams on who it was, as no aircraft was expected in this area from Grozny to Aktau, which also flying in the direction towards Moscow. Something that was moving incredible fast in the direction of Moscow, split second decision, launch or not.

The defence teams probably don’t factor in diversions into their planning. Especially those heading in the direction of Moscow.

This probably won’t be the last either. The fact so many survived is a credit to the crew. Sadly they hit the engine on the ground first which essentially created the fireball, but for that many to walk away, certainly an impressive effort.
 

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