Ethiopian 737 Max 8 crash and Fallout

[woodborer]

Makes you start wondering if the industry/regulators know something that hasn't been disclosed yet....

 

[Melburnian1]

Makes you start wondering if the industry/regulators know something that hasn't been disclosed yet....

Especially when the normal way they undertake investigations and then issue reports is to initially assess an event to determine whether it's worth working on, and then if that's a 'yea', they then undertake the investigation on a 'no blame' basis, perhaps write an interim report and then maybe 12 months after the occurrence publish the final report with recommendations.

 

[Deleted member 29185]

Lots of comment on this board throwing bile at Boeing a couple intimating the B737Max is a total lemon.

If you are referring to me, than you've made an incorrect statement. Have a read of what I said.

I've got a niggling doubt about these Max aircraft. ... even big companies have dogs and once a dog, always a dog. These Max 8's are beginning to bark!

Stating I have a niggling doubt is not intimating anything, nor is it throwing bile at Boeing. The last part is fact, even big companies build dogs. Two very similar crashes in 6 months taking well over 300 lives is certainly starting to indicate the possibility that the Max as it stands now, may fit that category. It's not a not a Holden versus Ford style debate between Boeing and Airbus, in fact I didn't even mention Airbus.

 

[33kft]

Makes you start wondering if the industry/regulators know something that hasn't been disclosed yet....

Or if the weight of public sentiment has forced their hand? It would be a brave airline that tried to publicly defend their Max 8 orders right now, before any findings have even been made.

 

[Melburnian1]

....It's not a not a Holden versus Ford style debate between Boeing and Airbus, in fact I didn't even mention Airbus.

It is in the sense that if Boeing has to admit that its MAX 8s are unsafe or problematical, that will cause an extremely large amount of reputational damage, and probably lead to large numbers of orders being cancelled.

That then leads to retrenchments (including in suppliers) and by extension an increase in orders for the major competitor Airbus. (But latter's waiting lists for A321neo or whatever would then further increase).

 

[woodborer]

Or if the weight of public sentiment has forced their hand? It would be a brave airline that tried to publicly defend their Max 8 orders right now, before any findings have even been made.

Definitely MAX has got a perception problem.

 

[kamchatsky]

Definitely MAX has got a perception problem.

Or an actual problem that Boeing cannot fix unless there is a design change .... Oops

 

[Quickstatus]

Behind the scenes, I would not rule out the commercial benefits of putting pressure on a supplier.

 

[jase05]

I see on the QF site they have pulled the ADL-NAN codeshare until April 5th so would they perhaps put on extra flights to cover loads or reimburse customers ASAP?

 

[33kft]

Or an actual problem that Boeing cannot fix unless there is a design change .... Oops

If they are able to come to that conclusion a day after a second hull loss but not initially at certification time, I would think something is very wrong. Have they even cracked open the CVR and FDR yet?

 

[Pushka]

I see on the QF site they have pulled the ADL-NAN codeshare until April 5th so would they perhaps put on extra flights to cover loads or reimburse customers ASAP?

I think the CAA banned them into Australian airspace.

 

[Quickstatus]

Boeing 737-MAX operations temporarily suspended by CASA in Australian Airspace

India’s version of CASA imposed stricter pilot experience when operating 737M8 minimum 1000hrs for PIC and 500hr for FO on the 737NG type and also stricter minimum equipment list.

 

[jase05]

I think the CAA banned them into Australian airspace.

Yep. QF are selling flights on them still from April 5th but up to then they have been pulled and are running ADL-SYD-NAN.

 

[jb747]

Meanwhile, FAA issuing a directive that the aircraft is still airworthy.

You have to love this line though "The FAA expects to mandate design changes to some systems and signaling on board by April."

MCAS is apparently only there because of the FAA.

 

[jakeseven7]

That was true when you wrote it, but 'The Australian' website has a paywalled story indicating that VA is having 'second thought.' I haven't provided a link as that would merely see viewers hit the paywall.

And here's another perspective from a respected business writer (though not an aviation specialist) from the Nine Group (former Fairfax Media):

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/bu...resh-look-at-max-8-order-20190312-p513jh.html

VA better reel in their pilots public statement supporting the MAX quick smart lol

 

[Quickstatus]

You have to love this line though "The FAA expects to mandate design changes to some systems and signaling on board by April."

MCAS is apparently only there because of the FAA.

Sounds like closing the gate after horse has bolted. Hopefully whatever it is it is able to be retrofitted to the existing 737M8.

Then there is the 737M9 and M10 both with longer fuselages. Maybe these are less problematic with their longer moment arms.

 

[33kft]

So is it not bureaucracy that led us here? I know Boeing will cop a lot of flak for this but it seems to me that unless they wanted to spring for a whole new type certification, they instead had to build a computerised system that adjusted the slightly changed flight profile to be more like the old flight profile.

So now we have old systems with new computers that make them act like their older selves, but that then negates the need for pilots to understand the new system (otherwise what is the point of it? I get that anti-stall augmentation is to improve safety but training pilots would do a lot better, it seems).

I am not trying to get ahead of the investigation, I feel we have done that already, but with the aircraft grounded across most of the world surely regardless of the outcome we need to do better in the future. This will be a very costly exercise in an industry with thin margins, if it doesn't highlight the structural failures rather than blaming it on an aircraft manufacturer, it was all for what?

 

[pauly7]

It would be a very brave CEO to be the "last man standing"

Well VA’s new CEO might use it as a get out of jail free card. There were huge internal fights over whether they should have ordered the MAX 8 in the first place - because many argued, they didn’t really need to.

It’s rumoured that that was one of the key reasons that JT (CEO in waiting) left and caused a massive rift in his relationship with JB who made the call.

Maybe their new CEO can wriggle out of the order...

 

[eastwest101]

Sounds like closing the gate after horse has bolted. Hopefully whatever it is it is able to be retrofitted to the existing 737M8.

Then there is the 737M9 and M10 both with longer fuselages. Maybe these are less problematic with their longer moment arms.

Wouldn't it be ironic if talk about having to resize the tail of the Max8 is so prohibitive that Boeing simply remove the Max-8 from production and continue to manufacture the Max-9 and -10 ? (Existing Max-8 frames either remanufactured as Max-9s or -10s)n

It's either that or additional AoA sensors, coughpit redesign, software fix and loss of common type rating from previous generation 737 family.

Looks like a lovely problem to hand over to the accountants, because they are partly to blame where Boeing find themselves now.

I bet there will be some uncomfortable discussions within the FAA in the future as well, very uncomfortable for some, that last statement from the FAA may be seen in the future as a career ending blunder.

 

[oz_mark]

Some stuff on the updates from Boeing

Boeing Statement on 737 MAX Software Enhancement

For the past several months and in the aftermath of Lion Air Flight 610, Boeing has been developing a flight control software enhancement for the 737 MAX, designed to make an already safe aircraft even safer. This includes updates to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law, pilot displays, operation manuals and crew training. The enhanced flight control law incorporates angle of attack (AOA) inputs, limits stabilizer trim commands in response to an erroneous angle of attack reading, and provides a limit to the stabilizer command in order to retain elevator authority.​