Ethiopian 737 Max 8 crash and Fallout

Soon they will need to disassemble them and go back to the drawing board, I hope.
 
serfty said:
Already this year, Boeing have seen contract cancellations for 43 of these aircraft (~10% of their total orders). I suspect by the end of the year the figure will be much greater.
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It's 1% of orders, not 10%.

Notwithstanding the MAX issues, there now has to be doubt about many, perhaps most, of the airlines that ordered them.

BTW, Staitman, I suspect he meant a full bottle. Not just a bottle. Cheers.
 
jb747 said:
It's 1% of orders, not 10%.

Notwithstanding the MAX issues, there now has to be doubt about many, perhaps most, of the airlines that ordered them.

BTW, Staitman, I suspect he meant a full bottle. Not just a bottle. Cheers.
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I'll try and find an unopened one if needed, though I don't think it will be needed.
 
I am predicting that I will never knowingly fly on one if they do return to service and not cut up for scrap. And I'll bet myself a Dirtman Shiraz I don't.
 
jb747 said:
It's 1% of orders, not 10%.

Notwithstanding the MAX issues, there now has to be doubt about many, perhaps most, of the airlines that ordered them.

BTW, Staitman, I suspect he meant a full bottle. Not just a bottle. Cheers.
Click to expand...
Well spotted....
 
jb747 said:
It's 1% of orders, not 10%.
Click to expand...
Yes, you are correct, I obtained the totals figure for 2020 from the wrong place.

Looking currently, from 2011 to 2018, Boeing nett totalled a little over 5000 orders for MAX aircraft, for 2019-2020 there has been a nett order of a little under -260.

The 43 came from the Boeing Website on 27th March - that was a nett order for 2020 of -43, it's now -191, but COVID-19 would have a lot to do with the additional -150.

Last years nett max orders was about -90.
 
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Looking back at history, the US admin decided some companies are too big to fail. In addition, given the ego of the US President it would be too much of an embarrassment to lose Boeing due to the combined effects of defects and Covid (aside from the old boy billionaire network working to extract what they can out of the crisis).

A potential outcome could be backroom deals to get US carriers to take up MAX with gusto, regardless of previous problems, at fire-sale price and the taxpayer ending up saving Boeing.
 
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It will be interesting to see what happens following the covid19 pandemics. My understanding is that carriers have been trying to renew their fleet to get more fuel efficient aircraft to fight low cost carriers, but if a lot of low cost (and full service) carriers go bust this should alleviate the pressure on purchasing brand new fuel efficient aircraft. If I remember correctly, in the 90s, most low cost carriers would fly very very old aircraft. So once the MAX is back in the sky, Boeing may have more time to design a new aircraft and less pressure to build 1000s of MAX for airlines that potentially won't exist anymore.
Time will tell...
 
defurax said:
It will be interesting to see what happens following the covid19 pandemics. My understanding is that carriers have been trying to renew their fleet to get more fuel efficient aircraft to fight low cost carriers, but if a lot of low cost (and full service) carriers go bust this should alleviate the pressure on purchasing brand new fuel efficient aircraft. If I remember correctly, in the 90s, most low cost carriers would fly very very old aircraft. So once the MAX is back in the sky, Boeing may have more time to design a new aircraft and less pressure to build 1000s of MAX for airlines that potentially won't exist anymore.
Time will tell...
Click to expand...


The way things are going, Boeing might be fighting it out with the airlines trying to get a decent price at the scrap metal yard,

It's a perfect storm. Originally of course, the problem for Boeing and 737MAX airlines was restoring customer confidence in the aeronautical safety equivalent of licking doorknobs on a cruise ship. But that assumed that there would be customers in the first place.

There appears no way that there will be as many airlines post COVID as before. Even those that do survive will be likely cutting fleet sizes for now. All it will take is a few heavy users of B737 or A320 aircraft to go under and the market will be flooded with dirt cheap second hand planes, many not even that old.

As for fuel, oil prices are at rock bottom, with one oil price index reporting NEGATIVE prices for oil. Unless compelled by environmental regulations, fuel efficiency isn't going to be a high priority at the moment.

One scenario I can see happening is that:
- A few largish single aisle carriers go under (e.g. Virgin, Norwegian, Easy Jet, etc.*)
- Other airlines cull planes from their fleets, either by trying to sell planes they own or canceling leases ASAP.
- Second hand market is flooded with single aisle planes
- Several 737MAX customers with their planes still sitting in an Everett car park go under
- Fuel efficiency of the MAX (and new Airbus models to be fair) rendered irrelevant by low fuel prices
- Boeing is stuck with the planes since any airline can pick up a second hand plane for well under the standard MAX price without incurring the reputational stain of the MAX.
- Boeing either sells to desperate/unscrupulous airlines at well below cost, somehow recycles the planes for parts or sends them to the scrap yard.

* Not saying I think these will go broke in particular, just examples that first came to mind.
 
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seanpodge said:
The way things are going, Boeing might be fighting it out with the airlines trying to get a decent price at the scrap metal yard,

It's a perfect storm. Originally of course, the problem for Boeing and 737MAX airlines was restoring customer confidence in the aeronautical safety equivalent of licking doorknobs on a cruise ship. But that assumed that there would be customers in the first place.

There appears no way that there will be as many airlines post COVID as before. Even those that do survive will be likely cutting fleet sizes for now. All it will take is a few heavy users of B737 or A320 aircraft to go under and the market will be flooded with dirt cheap second hand planes, many not even that old.

As for fuel, oil prices are at rock bottom, with one oil price index reporting NEGATIVE prices for oil. Unless compelled by environmental regulations, fuel efficiency isn't going to be a high priority at the moment.

One scenario I can see happening is that:
- A few largish single aisle carriers go under (e.g. Virgin, Norwegian, Easy Jet, etc.*)
- Other airlines cull planes from their fleets, either by trying to sell planes they own or canceling leases ASAP.
- Second hand market is flooded with single aisle planes
- Several 737MAX customers with their planes still sitting in an Everett car park go under
- Fuel efficiency of the MAX (and new Airbus models to be fair) rendered irrelevant by low fuel prices
- Boeing is stuck with the planes since any airline can pick up a second hand plane for well under the standard MAX price without incurring the reputational stain of the MAX.
- Boeing either sells to desperate/unscrupulous airlines at well below cost, somehow recycles the planes for parts or sends them to the scrap yard.

* Not saying I think these will go broke in particular, just examples that first came to mind.
Click to expand...

I think this realignment of aircraft prices due to the massive overhang of hundreds if not thousands of used aircraft on the market will affect the leasing market and obviously manufacturers, but the big change if aircraft prices fall, and oil stays low, is that this will radically change the economics of airlines, instead of the high capital cost barriers of aircraft and the industry being a capital intensive but low profit margin business that converts a lot of cheap fares into high profits for aircraft lessors and airport owners, we might see some expansion and risk taking with new entrants and possibly new business models come out in the next few years, once travel restrictions are eased.

Right now - the only civil Boeing manufacturing lines that are open are the B787 line and the B767 freighter lines, Airbus will have a lot of cancellations as well with used aircraft and cheap fuel flooding the market and reducing demand for new aircraft.
 
Saw a report today ...

"SpiritAero will deliver 125 Max fuselages to Boeing this year, down from the previous 216 target, as per an SEC filing." May 7th 2020

Even that seems ambitious to me, given how many are already sitting on the ground, yet to be delivered and orders being cancelled and will be cancelled in coming months.
May 3rd

United has cut its Boeing 737 MAX deliveries by half to 40 through end-2021, says CFO Laderman. 16 737 MAX are due this year, another 24 due in 2021.

May 2nd

Boeing 737 MAX expected to remain grounded until at least August. 737 MAX deliveries expected to return in third quarter. Boeing CEO David Calhoun says total of about 450 MAX jets built and put into storage.

April 2020 Brazil’s GOL has closed a compensation deal with Boeing on the 737 MAX. Details are confidential but includes cash compensation and the termination of 34 orders, reducing the Company's remaining firm orders for 737 MAX aircraft from 129 to 95.

Boeing customers cancelled 150 orders for the Boeing 737 Max jet in March, bringing net cancellations for the first three months of the year to 307 planes. (Airline Geeks)
 
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