Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

[Sprucegoose]

PLEASE INCLUDE DATE, FLIGHT NUMBER, ORIGIN & DESTINATION IN ALL REQUESTS

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>>>> ADDED BY ADMIN (6 Sept 2010) <<<<

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Background to this thread
We have noticed an increase in the posting of questions about seat availability on specific flights. These are all valid questions and we all appreciate the efforts our members go to to provide answers.

The only drawback is that our forums can become "cluttered" with specific questions about availability on specific flights. This tends to reduce the overall usability of our site.
We have therefore created this new consolidated thread where you can ask questions about seat availability on specific flights. Hopefully, this will reduce clutter and improve useability.

Guidelines for posting in this thread
Please post questions about availability of specific flights or upgrade probability in this new consolidated thread. Be sure to include the airline, flight number, date, origin and destination and any other relevant detail.

When answering questions, please include the original question. This will assist in readability and management of the thread.

Thanks!

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For Questions about Aircraft Configuration and Seat Availability, please use this thread:​

Understanding [Fare Buckets] Expert Flyer

I'd appreciate some help understanding the information EF provides. For example, F6 A6 J9 C9 D9 I0 B9 H9 K9 M9 R9 L9 V9 S0 N0 Q0 O0 X0 E0 What letters do I look at to try to work out how many seats are still available in economy? What letters do I look at to try to work out how many...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

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See this thread for hints on how to read loadings:

Interpreting and Understanding Expert Flyer​

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If looking for, say Qantas points upgrades, look for A class for First, mid to high D or any I class for Business and any R for Premium Economy.

Look for the most expensive category of the cabin YOU are currently booked in as being sold out e.g. J0 to first, W0 to Business & Y0 to PE for increased op-up chances. Also, look for availability on the discount premium buckets (A, P, I, D, U, T & Z inventories).

Conversely, look for high numbers in the discount economy buckets (N, O, Q, E & X inventories) for reduced op-up chances.

Seat maps can be a VERY rough guide but note that just because a seat is not showing as allocated does not mean that seat hasn't been sold. Not everyone pre-selects seats.

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>>>> END OF ADMIN UPDATE <<<<

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Original thread title: update on QF93 on 12 sept

Appreciate it if someone could check EP for loadings.

thnxs

SPRUCE

 

[Xax]

Hi all. Newbie here. i just wanted some general advice. does anyone know how busy flight AR1183 (Aerolineas Argentinas) from AKL - EZE, is likely to be on Dec 15? How busy is that route usually? I'm flying economy and desperately want to know my chances of an upgrade. AR Don't have a 'register for upgrade' option like other larger carriers have. has anyone ever been given an upgrade on this route?


Thanks all


Xax

 

[straitman]

Hi all. Newbie here. i just wanted some general advice. does anyone know how busy flight AR1183 (Aerolineas Argentinas) from AKL - EZE, is likely to be on Dec 15? How busy is that route usually? I'm flying economy and desperately want to know my chances of an upgrade. AR Don't have a 'register for upgrade' option like other larger carriers have. has anyone ever been given an upgrade on this route?


Thanks all


Xax

Hi Xax,

Welcome to AFF.

The loadings for your flight are :J7 D7 C7 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M6 V3 N0 L0 Q0O0 W0 S0 G0 A0 R0 T0 X1 E0

I have no idea re upgrade options other than economy seems very full and business seems to have spare seats.

 

[Katie]

I've looked at FlightStats, but would like some expert analysis. Or probably not, maybe just some affirmation to gird my loins to prepare to travel in the class I bought a ticket in ...
I'm on QF108 tomorrow (Fri 18/11) in Y+, points upgrade requested to J. Flightstats is showing J0 A3 or somethign like that. I'm QF WP.

An upgrade is pretty darn unlikely to come through, huh? :shrug: :sigh:

<pointless trivia>I also didn't manage a points upgrade on QF107 on 11/11. I was able to study the Y+ manifest on disembarking, and I was the only WP in Y+.</pointless trivia>

 

[serfty]

                                                                     Frequency
Flight        Stops  Depart             Arrive             Aircraft  Reliability     Available Classes
0 Connections
QF 108        0      LAX                SYD                744       Unavailable     F3 A1 P0 J0 C0 D0 I0 U0 W3 R0 T0 Z0 Y9 B9 H9 K7 M7 L0 V6 S5 G0 E0 
                     18/11/11 11:40 PM  20/11/11 9:25 AM             37% / 27m


QF 108        1      JFK                SYD                404       Unavailable     J0 C0 D0 I0 U0 Y9 B9 H9 K5 M5 L0 V4 G0 X9 E0 
                     18/11/11 6:35 PM   20/11/11 9:25 AM             NA / NA

Your chances are looking pretty grim - although maybe J->F upgrades could leave a spot. Yyou should be in front on any Y->J WP upgraders.

 

[Katie]

Thanks serfty! That's what I figured - am hoping I'm in the top three WPs in Y+ (if there are any others) requesting a Y+ > J upgrade. If I'm not, oh well. I've got 34D which should be OK.

 

[Katie]

Woke up to an upgrade declined message in my booking on qantas.com.au. Oh well.

 

[docjames]

Woke up to an upgrade declined message in my booking on qantas.com.au. Oh well.

I hate waking up to that.

 

[Alanslegal]

I am hoping for two op-ups tomorrow evening on BA15 SIN-SYD

EF currently shows F7 A7 J9 C9 D9 R9 I9 W8 E8 T8 Y0 B0 ...

Looks like I have been kicked out of my pre-allocated 26B bulkhead seat ... to 28F. The girlfriend remains in her allocated 26A.

*fingers crossed*

 

[reductionist]

I am hoping for two op-ups tomorrow evening on BA15 SIN-SYD

EF currently shows F7 A7 J9 C9 D9 R9 I9 W8 E8 T8 Y0 B0 ...

Looks like I have been kicked out of my pre-allocated 26B bulkhead seat ... to 28F. The girlfriend remains in her allocated 26A.

*fingers crossed*

How did you go?

 

[Alanslegal]

How did you go?

Thanks for asking.My flight was last night 27/11 and were op-upped to Y+.

 

[reductionist]

Thanks for asking.My flight was last night 27/11 and were op-upped to Y+.

Ahh good one.

 

[Rebekkap]

"Mouse-over" those FlightStats numbers and look for availability on the discount premium buckets (A, P, I, D, U, T & Z inventories) for increase op-up chances.

Conversely, look for high number is the discount economy buckets (N, O, Q, E & X inventories) for reduced op-up chances.

Then follow thread linked to in post #1.

Ok, so when I went in about ten days ago, it was showing as 2 economy seats left, only 1 actually showing (in Y) on the mouseover. But when I just went back in today it now says there are 6 economy seats available - 6W, R4, Y2, B1, H1.

Can anyone explain what's going on?

(There are still some discount premium available - I4, D4 - so I have my fingers crossed so hard for an upgrade they're practically bleeding...)

 

[serfty]

...

Can anyone explain what's going on?

(There are still some discount premium available - I4, D4 - so I have my fingers crossed so hard for an upgrade they're practically bleeding...)

It is likely with only a few days before the flight that Qantas Yield Management are endeavoring to sell all the seats for what they can get.

At this stage, they are seeing the 388 as having 450 seats and are prepared to effectively sell F/PE/J seats for high economy fares.

 

[Rebekkap]

It is likely with only a few days before the flight that Qantas Yield Management are endeavoring to sell all the seats for what they can get.

At this stage, they are seeing the 399 as having 450 seats and are prepared to effectively sell F/PE/J seats for high economy fares.

When I search the Qantas website (not logged in) for two economy seats Mel>Lax on Monday, it's not even giving me QF93 as an *option*. If I only search for one, it gives me flexi saver available at $2358.

It offers me PE at $4869 one way (and says hurry, there are five or fewer seats available at this price!) $10675 for J (no Hurry!) or $14447 for first (Hurry!)

Doesn't seem like there's any deep discounting going on? Or am I missing something?

 

[reductionist]

they are seeing the 399 as having 450 seats and are prepared to effectively sell F/PE/J seats for high economy fares.

Sorry, just to clarify. What you're saying is they've opened up more Y inventory even though Y seats may not actually exist?

If my understanding is right then this would be the precursor to an op-up scenario. Because if the newly added Y inventory sells then they'll have problems fitting all the Y pax into the cabin. Does that sound right?

They must be reasonably confident that they won't sell any more premium fares at this point? Or at least, they think they'll make more money (on average) by selling additional Y fares?

What happens if the F/J/Y+ fares actually sell? They would have to reduce Y buckets accordingly, right?

 

[Rebekkap]

Sorry, just to clarify. What you're saying is they've opened up more Y inventory even though Y seats may not actually exist?

If my understanding is right then this would be the precursor to an op-up scenario. Because if the newly added Y inventory sells then they'll have problems fitting all the Y pax into the cabin. Does that sound right?

They must be reasonably confident that they won't sell any more premium fares at this point? Or at least, they think they'll make more money (on average) by selling additional Y fares?

What happens if the F/J/Y+ fares actually sell? They would have to reduce Y buckets accordingly, right?

No, I'm not sure that's the case. When I actually do a dummy search on the QF website to see whether I can "buy" Y seats, it only seems possible to buy one single solitary Y seat, despite flyerstats showing more economy availability than that.

Thus my confusion!

 

[serfty]

... I can "buy" Y seats, it only seems possible to buy one single solitary Y seat, despite flyerstats showing more economy availability than that.

Y2 H1 means they are willing to sell up to two seats into the "Y" fare bucket and only one at the lessor cost "H" fare bucket. There may be only one or less¹ actual "seats" available and they could be anywhere on the aircraft.

Guess what? Online, "Y" is rarely offered for sale. For information on how to ascertain this, see here: http://www.australianfrequentflyer....rogram/qf-booking-class-22124.html#post364718

...No, I'm not sure that's the case. ...

Actually, reductionist is correct with what I meant.

In all this, you can replace the word seat with fare.

¹ Sometime they'll oversell, i.e. Confirm bookings for more seats than they actually have on the aircraft - looking for no shows or late booking changes.

 

[reductionist]

If you guys can indulge me for a moment, I'm just trying to further my understanding here.

Here's QF 93 for tomorrow (Friday) night. The colour codings are mine obviously.

F8 A0 P0 J2 C0 D0 I0 U0 W2 R0 T0 Z0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 E0

We can see that there's no availability in the economy cabin, at all.

I'm trying to build a rough picture of what needs to happen in order for Y pax to be upgraded to PE (or beyond).

If we make the assumption that QF has indeed sold more Y seats than the aircraft has (would that be true in this case?) then:

1. QF will upgrade PE pax who've requested a J upgrade with points. This frees up some PE seats.
2. QF upgrades Y pax who've requested a J upgrade with points. This frees up some Y seats.
3. QF upgrades Y pax who've requested a PE upgrade with points. This frees up some Y seats.
4. Finally, if there are still more Y pax than the aircraft can handle, they op-up Y pax to PE to fit them in.
5. Of course, if PE is too full for the economy pax being op-uped, they push some PE pax to J, J pax to F and so on.

Does this sound roughly correct? Sorry if it's already documented somewhere. I just wanted understand it a bit more than knowing that "an oversold flight" is where op-ups happen.

If my understanding is close, then it does seem like the stars really do need to align in order to receive an op-up. If you start accounting for pax who didn't show up to the airport and so on.

 

[Rebekkap]

Y2 H1 means they are willing to sell up to two seats into the "Y" fare bucket and only one at the lessor cost "H" fare bucket. There may be only one or less¹ actual "seats" available and they could be anywhere on the aircraft.

Actually, reductionist is correct with what I meant.

In all this, you can replace the word seat with fare.

¹ Sometime they'll oversell, i.e. Confirm bookings for more seats than they actually have on the aircraft - looking for no shows or late booking changes.

Yeah, I get all this - but the availability of fares (in any economy bucket) on flightstats does not equal the availability of "seats" (whether or not there are actual seats) on the Qantas website - whether those seats are in the Y fare bucket or not, when I do a dummy search / selection on the Qantas website, if I search for two adults flying economy class on that day, it doesn't give me QF93 as an option, but it does if I only search for one adult - suggesting to me that there is one seat available, not six.

Is it possible flight stats is lagging behind Qantas availability? I don't know how it works, so maybe Qantas has sold more seats since flightstats stats were last updated?

 

[serfty]

Ok, so when I went in about ten days ago, it was showing as 2 economy seats left, only 1 actually showing (in Y) on the mouseover. But when I just went back in today it now says there are 6 economy seats available - 6W, R4, Y2, B1, H1.

Can anyone explain what's going on?

(There are still some discount premium available - I4, D4 - so I have my fingers crossed so hard for an upgrade they're practically bleeding...)

Ok, Flight stats incorrectly classifies W and R as economy but on Qantas they are actually Premium Economy fare buckets.

So "6W, R4" indicates Qantas are willing to sell up to 6 PE fares in the expensive W class or up to 4 discounted PE fares in the R fare bucket. There is another PE fare bucket, T which Qantas are no longer selling on this flight.

"Y2, B1, H1" indicates Qantas are willing to sell up to 2 economy fares in Y class or 1 fare in B or H class.

I noted before that Qantas.com rarely sells the "Y" fare bucket; this is the case here - that seat is coming from the "H" fare bucket - of which there is only one seat being made available. (See "QF Booking Class" link in post #677 for information on how I found this.)