Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

[Sprucegoose]

PLEASE INCLUDE DATE, FLIGHT NUMBER, ORIGIN & DESTINATION IN ALL REQUESTS

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>>>> ADDED BY ADMIN (6 Sept 2010) <<<<

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Background to this thread
We have noticed an increase in the posting of questions about seat availability on specific flights. These are all valid questions and we all appreciate the efforts our members go to to provide answers.

The only drawback is that our forums can become "cluttered" with specific questions about availability on specific flights. This tends to reduce the overall usability of our site.
We have therefore created this new consolidated thread where you can ask questions about seat availability on specific flights. Hopefully, this will reduce clutter and improve useability.

Guidelines for posting in this thread
Please post questions about availability of specific flights or upgrade probability in this new consolidated thread. Be sure to include the airline, flight number, date, origin and destination and any other relevant detail.

When answering questions, please include the original question. This will assist in readability and management of the thread.

Thanks!

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For Questions about Aircraft Configuration and Seat Availability, please use this thread:​

Understanding [Fare Buckets] Expert Flyer

I'd appreciate some help understanding the information EF provides. For example, F6 A6 J9 C9 D9 I0 B9 H9 K9 M9 R9 L9 V9 S0 N0 Q0 O0 X0 E0 What letters do I look at to try to work out how many seats are still available in economy? What letters do I look at to try to work out how many...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

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See this thread for hints on how to read loadings:

Interpreting and Understanding Expert Flyer​

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If looking for, say Qantas points upgrades, look for A class for First, mid to high D or any I class for Business and any R for Premium Economy.

Look for the most expensive category of the cabin YOU are currently booked in as being sold out e.g. J0 to first, W0 to Business & Y0 to PE for increased op-up chances. Also, look for availability on the discount premium buckets (A, P, I, D, U, T & Z inventories).

Conversely, look for high numbers in the discount economy buckets (N, O, Q, E & X inventories) for reduced op-up chances.

Seat maps can be a VERY rough guide but note that just because a seat is not showing as allocated does not mean that seat hasn't been sold. Not everyone pre-selects seats.

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>>>> END OF ADMIN UPDATE <<<<

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Original thread title: update on QF93 on 12 sept

Appreciate it if someone could check EP for loadings.

thnxs

SPRUCE

 

[thewinchester]

Re: What chance of a points upgrade?

I am booked on QF077 from PER to SIN in a couple of weeks and back at the end of January on QF072. It appears that economy class is sold out from PER to SIN. I am contemplating applying for a points upgrade and I have a couple of questions regarding the procedure.
1) How much chance would I have as I am only a lowly Bronze level FF? I am booked in V class, I think.
2) How soon before the flight would I be informed if my request was successful?
3) Is there anything I should be aware of, when applying for an upgrade?

1. For NB's, upgrade probability is 50% based on personal and known experience for all PER-SIN flights. Chances for upgrades seem to increase the further out from the flight the request is made. As for Y
2. Generally you won't be informed until the day before your flight when INT upgrades are finalised and processed, but see anat0l's comments already on this.
3. Not that I can think of. I'm sure others will chime in if they can think of any.

I wouldn't know how many elites would be on the PER/SIN sector, so you can try and apply for a points upgrade and test your luck.

From my experience over the last few years, there's generally ~20% of pax on board with QFF/OW status. More often than not Zones B & C for this route are loaded with unstatused pax, A is where you'll find all the QFF/OW flyers (unless they've chosen to sit up the ugly end, stuck with pax who didn't buy JQ tix in time for travel).

For a 5 hour flight I'd be thinking hard as to whether you really want to upgrade with points. It's not a trivial cost (unless you are awash with points), and the only benefit you'll get is to sleep in a Skybed (Skyslope) for perhaps the good part of 2-3 hours.

Agreed, upgrades are always nice, but you should consider if it's a good use of points.

As a former NB myself, before the ASA tickets were introduced I always used my points for upgrades. Classic award tickets didn't give me much value, plus I always enjoyed and more often preferred the extra comfort and amenities of J (in-seat power being a real plus).

 

[anat0l]

Re: What chance of a points upgrade?

1. For NB's, upgrade probability is 50% based on personal and known experience for all PER-SIN flights. Chances for upgrades seem to increase the further out from the flight the request is made.

50% is a pretty high return rate!

Perhaps if there are not too many elites on the route, then there won't be as many upgrade requests. It could also have something to do with the length of flight (and possibly the equipment).

The main reason for trying to understand elite loading is because higher ranking elites have better chances of having their upgrade requests granted.

OTOH since this is not a "key" route (unlike, say, ...-LAX or ...-SIN-LHR), that's another factor to consider.


What this all boils down to is a few things:

• If you really want to spend the points (i.e. the points don't matter), register for an upgrade. If the upgrade doesn't go through, you don't get charged a thing.
• Always be prepared to fly in your originally booked class. An upgrade should never be treated as certain. This is a mistake many people make.

 

[tuapekastar]

Re: What chance of a points upgrade?

If you try for it, especially as you are already booked in an upgradable class, rather than deciding whether to book same, you have nothing to lose as there is no cost if it is not successful.

I have been unsuccessful (as NB) a couple of times for Y to J upgrades (MEL-HKG-MEL), and successful (applied for as an NB, PS when I flew) for a J to F (SIN-LHR) so it does happen, but as others caution, do not count on it.

I knew (well, as certain as I could be) the SIN-LHR upgrade request was successful when the points disappeared from my account ~24 hours before the flight.

And I would suggest (without actually knowing OTTOMH how many points an upgrade costs for it ) a 5 hour flight in an international A330 PER-SIN is probably worth upgrading.

Whatever you decide, enjoy!

 

[Mal P]

Re: Qantas to recommence A380 services

Would it be possible for someone to please find out how busy QF10 from LHR to MEL on 24/12/2010 might be? Just curious to see what my chances are of an upgrade since I am WPG.

I was at least able to secure row 40!

Many thanks

 

[straitman]

Re: Qantas to recommence A380 services

Would it be possible for someone to please find out how busy QF10 from LHR to MEL on 24/12/2010 might be? Just curious to see what my chances are of an upgrade since I am WPG.

I was at least able to secure row 40!

Many thanks

F9 A3 J9 C0 D0 I0 W2 R0 T0 Y1 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 E0

I take it you are in 40D :?:

 

[Mal P]

Re: Qantas to recommence A380 services

Thanks straitman! Fingers crossed. I just changed to 40C, Seat Guru told me 40D didn't have enough recline, which I will really need if an op-up doesn't come through.

 

[Sprucegoose]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

I am on qf29 on 21 dec full Y ticket and WP.

Given the stats should I cancel my request for an upgrade and take my chances on op UG?

Your advice appreciated.

 

[straitman]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

I am on qf29 on 21 dec full Y ticket and WP.

Given the stats should I cancel my request for an upgrade and take my chances on op UG?

Your advice appreciated.

That of course depends upon how important the upgrade is to you.

Without looking at the numbers you are somewhere near the top of the pecking order for an op up but I believe a points request gives you a greater chance.

 

[serfty]

I am on qf29 on 21 dec full Y ticket and WP. ...

MEL-LHR: F3 A3 J9 C9 D6 I4 W8 R5 T1 Y3 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 E0
MEL-HKG: F3 A2 J3 C2 D0 I0 W2 R0 T0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 E0
HKG-LHR: F9 A9 P1 J9 C9 D9 I9 W9 R9 T4 Z1 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 G0 E0 (21st)
HKG-LHR: F3 A3 P2 J9 C9 D9 I9 U3 W9 R9 T5 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 G0 E0 (22nd)

If you are ex MEL then you do have a chance for an op-up; but I'd be looking for a points upgrade.

For ex HKG, a points upgrade is your only realistic chance.

 

[m_ratt]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

I'm curious about the loading on QF031 on 16/1/11 - anyone willing and about to assist me? (Thanks in advance).
It's probably too early to make any guesses, but I'm in WP and in 51K so happy enough to stay there anyway.

Cheers

Mark

 

[straitman]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

i'm curious about the loading on qf031 on 16/1/11 - anyone willing and about to assist me? (thanks in advance).
It's probably too early to make any guesses, but i'm in wp and in 51k so happy enough to stay there anyway.

Cheers

mark

syd-sin f7 a5 j9 c9 d9 i9 w4 r2 t0 y9 b9 h9 k9 m9 l9 g0 e0
sin-lhr f9 a9 j9 c9 d9 i1 w9 r6 t1 y9 b9 h9 k9 m9 l9 v9 s9 g0 e0


I'm not sure why these all dropped to lower case as they were upper case when posted.

 

[Sprucegoose]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

That of course depends upon how important the upgrade is to you.

Without looking at the numbers you are somewhere near the top of the pecking order for an op up but I believe a points request gives you a greater chance.

Agree Bill

 

[Sprucegoose]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

MEL-LHR: F3 A3 J9 C9 D6 I4 W8 R5 T1 Y3 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 E0
MEL-HKG: F3 A2 J3 C2 D0 I0 W2 R0 T0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 E0
HKG-LHR: F9 A9 P1 J9 C9 D9 I9 W9 R9 T4 Z1 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 G0 E0 (21st)
HKG-LHR: F3 A3 P2 J9 C9 D9 I9 U3 W9 R9 T5 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 G0 E0 (22nd)

If you are ex MEL then you do have a chance for an op-up; but I'd be looking for a points upgrade.

For ex HKG, a points upgrade is your only realistic chance.

We could go for W and snag J as an each way bet I reckon.?

 

[m_ratt]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

syd-sin f7 a5 j9 c9 d9 i9 w4 r2 t0 y9 b9 h9 k9 m9 l9 g0 e0
sin-lhr f9 a9 j9 c9 d9 i1 w9 r6 t1 y9 b9 h9 k9 m9 l9 v9 s9 g0 e0


I'm not sure why these all dropped to lower case as they were upper case when posted.

Thanks for that.

And probably forum software designed to stop 'shouting' - if a post contains only capitals, it will make them all lowercase.

 

[MarcB]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

Hi All

Plus one and I are travelling back from JFK on 7 January and I've been watching the flight availability for a few weeks now. Currently we are scheduled to fly on QF108 through to Sydney but our ultimate destination is Brisbane. Last night, all flights out of LAX on 7 Jan went to 0 in all classes except on QF108 it still shows F9 A9 and QF94 shows J5. We are on O class fares but I managed to put in an UPG request from JFK-SYD a few weeks ago when QF were doing the targeted offer. We were not targeted but as it was system-wide I still managed to put it through.

What do people think of our chances in either getting the points upgrade or even an OPUP from LAX-SYD? We are both Gold. So far I have not seen any significant changes to the seating maps, so I can only assume the 0 might be to ensure that they can carry everyone on available flights with the A380s out of action. We have 40A and B on the flight from LAX (front row of Y) so I am minded to pull the UPG request and take our chances with an OPUP...

Cheers

 

[JohnK]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

I could well be wrong but I would not be relying on op-ups especially as a Gold.

On another note can someone please check QF009 MEL-SIN on 26 December? I think serfty posted last time that the flight was full.

 

[serfty]

A points upgrade request would be in front of any op-ups in most circumstances.

QF9 on Dec 26 is showing F1 A0 J0 C0 D0 I0 W0 R0 T0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 E0

 

[MarcB]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

Certainly I'm not hanging my hat on an OPUP - even despite what I consider my incredible luck in getting them over the last 2 years with Qantas. The US route, in particular, has proved to have a good strike rate. I guess maybe I am questioning the value of using 196000 pts for J when 40A and 40B are not that bad as far as Y goes...

 

[JohnK]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

Personally I would stick with 40AB and save the 196,000 points.

QF9 on Dec 26 is showing F1 A0 J0 C0 D0 I0 W0 R0 T0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 E0

Wow! Only 1 available seat on the whole flight. I would have expected some cancellations by now from people playing musical flights.

 

[Sprucegoose]

re: Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

Personally I would stick with 40AB and save the 196,000 points.


Wow! Only 1 available seat on the whole flight. I would have expected some cancellations by now from people playing musical flights.

Agree, better value available with better planning