General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[Flying mermaid]

I don’t think in recent days it has been reported that anyone has been fined for not social distancing (eg 1.5m, Hand washing, cough into sleeve) or being out while showing symptoms or not getting tested.

I, and I feel many others, would like fines for:
1. People who test positive and break quarantine/isolation requirement
2. People who refuse test while in mandatory quarantine for overseas arrivals.
3. Close contacts of positives who break isolation (without a test result)
4. And probably those who live in suburb hotspots who break isolation recommendation without a negative test result.

No I don’t think they have but it would be easy to say they should be, however as I say counter productive. I wouldn’t fine those who refuse a test e.g. Hotel quarantine. I just wouldn’t let them out until they did (and make them pay for accommodation). However according to ABC - Victoria is wringing their hands and saying there is nothing they can do....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So, why is it important if people in quarantine get tested or not, if two weeks is enough?

Ah, well that is my point. If the goal of quarantine is to prevent infection then testing isn't important. The two weeks of quarantine is.

So to be clear I am not saying that testing of those in quarantine does not have uses, and I am also not against doing these tests as I think it can add to the knowledge pool. I am just saying that on the evidence available to date testing everyone in quarantine will not assist in preventing new cases of Covid 19 in the general Australian public.

A number are stating or implying that it is generating more cases. But there is no evidence of this.

There are known cases of people who returned to Australia and breached self-isolation that was operating early on and infected people. So we definitely know that returned travellers within 14 days can transmit the virus. But there are no known cases of someone completing a 14 day hotel quarantine infecting anyone. This despite tens of thousands now having gone through hotel quarantine. So if it really was a high risk surely by now at least one close contact of all of the people who have been released from hotel quarantine would have shown up as a Covid 19 positive case? Now some will say, ah but some unknown random may have been infected. And yes they may, but is it really plausible that some randoms have been infected when there is probably a pool of over one hundred thousand close contacts with not one case having turned up from that pool? Remember too that genomic testing is used to help identify links.

Early on remember that partners of returning travellers were getting infected. Again not one case of this from someone who has been through hotel quarantine.


Also note that hotel quarantine that we are talking about is for people coming into Australia. So in most cases people would have been infected prior to getting on the plane or disembarking from the ship.

Secondly a number of studies, the most recent from Singapore, indicate that viral load is earliest early on and normally that beyond 14 days from becoming infected people are not likely to be infectious even if they still test positive. So if people are not exhibiting symptoms at the end of a 14 day quarantine it is most unlikely that they are infectious.

Murphy again today re-affirmed that a 14 days quarantine was the appropriate duration.


Now what more testing can do is supply more information on the virus, and their are benefits from that. It could even lead to a methodology of where the 14 day quarantine period could be reduced for some people. Or conversely increased in some cases.


Speaking after today's meeting of National Cabinet, he said testing of people in hotel quarantine would be ramped up.

But he also indicated that could lead to quarantine being changed in some circumstances.

"We're seeing imported cases in hotel quarantine from a different range of countries now," he said.

"We are going to start testing people on entry to quarantine and testing people before they leave quarantine to see whether a testing regimen might help in the future to modify that quarantine in certain circumstances."

All those in hotel quarantine will be tested within 48 hours of arriving and again on day 10 to 12 of their two-week stay.


Now hotel quarantine needs to be conducted properly, and one contractor at two hotels had staff that did not follow protocols correctly. So how hotel quarantine is being run needs to follow the guidelines.



In terms of controlling community spread I think that testing of the hotel quarantined will do little and probably nothing, and that there are many other areas to be focused on that will have more impact on community spread. The infected I fear are not the people in hotel quarantine, it is the ones wandering about in our community and moreso the ones who are not serious about behaviours to minimise spread.

 

[Lynda2475]

Lovetravellingoz your 14 day logic assumes that returned travellers have covid-19 before being put into quarantine but neglects that many people arent in rooms on their own but in family/traveller groups.

There has been transmission from travellers to security and cleaning stuff at hotels in Melbourne and travellers sharing rooms.

Consider a family of 4 is sharing a room, kid 1 develops mild covid-19 symptoms on day 10, isnt tested. Released on day 14 and Dad ends up with Covid-19 once at home on day 15. You say this hasnt happened but you dont know, cause this level of detail isnt reported. But there have been travellers back in Aus greater than 14 days who have later tested positive, which means it is logical they got it late in quarantine period or were infected from luggage surfaces etc once at home.

We do know that within the family clusters in Melbourne there were individuals who had tested positive (hinted link to security guard cluster at hotels) and told to self isolate who didnt, they went to family gatherings, spread it to family members who were also told to isolate but then those people went to work.

I just think mandatory negative test on day 14 before being released is a sensible step.

And any locally acquired case who breaks self isolation within 14 days of diagnosis should be charged.

Cant believe Vic is panic buying toilet paper again, arghh when will people learn.

 

[Gold60]

i have read reasonably widely on the various COVID threads here and elsewhere.

from my non- medical and reasonably uninformed view, it seems as though coming out of, and living with COVID, until and/or if a vaccine is found, comes down to death numbers.

how many people are we comfortable with dying from COVID and/or associated complications ?

it could be relatively few, if we continue managing/lifting our current restrictions - OR an awful lot - many tens/hundreds thousands, if we snap back to the good 'ole life that was.

we seem to be OK with a death toll in the many hundreds or the odd thousand or so in a bad flu season. do we adopt a similar number, or say a few thousands ?

what is your number - how many would you find acceptable ?

disclosure - i am in my sixties with a few compromising health things happening - so i would be in the firing line a bit.

i THINK i could live with a similar COVID death rate of what the flu is, or maybe a few thousand higher each year, if it could be shown that there were significant economic/lifestyle benefits for the vast majority of Australians.

just my thoughts........

 

[lovetravellingoz]

i THINK i could live with a similar COVID death rate of what the flu is, or maybe a few thousand higher each year, if it could be shown that there were significant economic/lifestyle benefits for the vast majority of Australians.

just my thoughts........

Problem is that the death rate is a lot higher than the flu.

ie Sweden. With say 10% affected, population = 10 million. Current deaths is 5280 despite their high quality and not overloaded heath care.

Australian population is about 25 million. So even at that rate it is roughly 13,000 dead. To get to herd immunity where it tails off that is say 60-100,000 dead.

Obviously the above figures are rubbery, but the mortality rate is significantly higher than the flu.

 

[Gold60]

very what you say about COVID being a very deadly situation.

i wonder if any research has been done on what many/most people could live with ?

Problem is that the death rate is a lot higher than the flu.

ie Sweden. With say 10% affected, population = 10 million. Current deaths is 5280 despite their high quality and not overloaded heath care.

Australian population is about 25 million. So even at that rate it is roughly 13,000 dead. To get to herd immunity where it tails off that is say 60-100,000 dead.

Obviously the above figures are rubbery, but the mortality rate is significantly higher than the flu.

 

[Flying mermaid]

i have read reasonably widely on the various COVID threads here and elsewhere.

from my non- medical and reasonably uninformed view, it seems as though coming out of, and living with COVID, until and/or if a vaccine is found, comes down to death numbers.

how many people are we comfortable with dying from COVID and/or associated complications ?

it could be relatively few, if we continue managing/lifting our current restrictions - OR an awful lot - many tens/hundreds thousands, if we snap back to the good 'ole life that was.

we seem to be OK with a death toll in the many hundreds or the odd thousand or so in a bad flu season. do we adopt a similar number, or say a few thousands ?

what is your number - how many would you find acceptable ?

disclosure - i am in my sixties with a few compromising health things happening - so i would be in the firing line a bit.

i THINK i could live with a similar COVID death rate of what the flu is, or maybe a few thousand higher each year, if it could be shown that there were significant economic/lifestyle benefits for the vast majority of Australians.

just my thoughts........

Thousands are fine if they are other people, 1 is too much if it’s your family.

I get what you are saying and I think the government and medical advisors are pretty much saying a low number is OK - you have to balance the economy and people’s lives, which is why they haven’t gone for eradication and have always said as we opened up we will get hot spots (which means deaths). Because it spreads so rapidly it really has to be controlled much more than with normal viruses, so I suppose you have to be much more focused on controlling it. If it gets away and there is massive community spread then you are looking at 15,000 to 20,000 deaths pretty quickly (just look at Sweden). I don’t think anyone would find that acceptable.

I do think as things open up you need to exercise personal responsibility. I was starting to feel relaxed but with the situation in Victoria I have retreated to my bunker until 3 to 4 weeks after the school holidays. Had a friend from Sydney who asked if he could come and stay in the school holidays as he wanted to see us and catch up with some other friends and I have just said no.

 

[Hvr]

Of course we do have history to guide us and as in many instances we ignore history at our peril.

1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

Everything you need to know about the flu illness, including symptoms, treatment and prevention.

www.cdc.gov

1918 Pandemic Influenza: Three Waves | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

1918 Pandemic Influenza: Three Waves - CDC

www.cdc.gov

There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919. The pandemic peaked in the U.S. during the second wave, in the fall of 1918 (Sept-Oct). This highly fatal second wave was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths attributed to the pandemic.

A third wave of illness occurred during the winter and spring of 1919, adding to the pandemic death toll. The third wave of the pandemic subsided during the summer (June-Aug) of 1919.

So basically 17 months.

COVID-19 reporting

This page provides update on national COVID-19 spread, vaccination and treatment metrics.

www.health.gov.au

COVID-19 was first confirmed in Australia in late January 2020. This page provides a number of visual representations of information about COVID-19 in Australia since that time.

So if the pandemic subsides at the end of the US summer 2021 (Aug), i.e. the end of our winter then we've got a long way to go.

While there will be extensive efforts to develop a vaccine there is a possibility it wont be successful. So until then we know how to deal with it, cleaning and remaining apart, i.e. isolation.

As we repeatedly see too many people are stupid, well Mr Darwin has an award for them.

As for what we can live with? Well this is a live sociological study that will fill thousands of text books and influence teaching on the human condition for generations, or until the next pandemic when they will have the lessons of history to read after it's over and look at them saying, 'that's what we went through'.

And the world turns on. And as it does climate change is the next danger currently being ignored in plain site. I mean there are bushfires in the Arctic circle and a recent 38 degree Celsius day for the first time ever. That's >100 in the old scale.

Reports Indicate That Arctic Temperatures Just Hit a Horrific New Heat Record

The United Nations said Tuesday it was working to verify reports of a new Arctic record temperature of 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in a Siberian town over the weekend.

www.sciencealert.com

It Was 38 Degrees Celsius In The Arctic Circle This Weekend

It Was 38 Degrees Celsius In The Arctic Circle This Weekend

www.iflscience.com

There are none so blind as those who will not see.

 

[drron]

The flu has had a much higher death rate when there was no vaccine and no treatment.In the USA if Covid had the same mortality as the H1N1 strain of flu that caused the Spanish flu pandemic the death rate would reach 1.8-2.9 million.

In the U.S., about 28% of the population of 105 million became infected, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population).[119][120][121] Native American tribes were particularly hard hit. In the Four Corners area, there were 3,293 registered deaths among Native Americans.[122] Entire Inuit and Alaskan Native village communities died in Alaska.[123

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-123

Spanish flu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The virus mutated and became less infective.The H1N1 strain is still around today and variants include the swine flu epidemic.The Swine flu variant is still circulating and has caused localised outbreaks.The most recent was in India in February this year.

On February 20, 2020, an IT firm in India stated that 2 of its employees have been tested positive for H1N1. On February 25, 2020, Justice D. Y. Chandrachud announced in the Supreme Court that six Supreme Court judges had contracted an H1N1 infection.[62] In a Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) session, Mr Ashwini Choubey, state minister of Health & Family Welfare, informed reporting of 1469 cases of Swine Flu and 28 deaths in India by the 1st March 2020.[63]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1#cite_note-63

If the Covid 19 death rate in Australia was the same as that swine flu outbreak in India we would be at ~ 140 deaths now.

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ellen10]

So many valid points and conversations here. Something to also consider is that with many of those that get Covid-19 and recover have many ongoing health problems for a long time later. There is a man in our local area who was on the Ruby Princess, he was very sick in hospital but has survived. He was a fit healthy ex policeman who swam and exercised daily prior to Covid. He now has lung, liver, nerve problems and many more. Has to walk with a walker and the nerves in his feet and hands will take 2 years to repair.

 

[tgh]

Anyone seen a current world infection projection ?
There are several complex pages with US scenario's.. but nothing recent for the planet that I can find.
We are about to roll past 10m , the daily rate increase will be at 250k in a few weeks giving us 1m every 4 days.
Assuming a real rate of x4.. the numbers are perhaps too chilling for public disclosure/discussion.

 

[drron]

Though if you look at the figures since Mid May daily new cases have doubled whilst deaths at a plateau.We are testing a lot more.Deaths though increasing in South America and the Middle East again.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 131,307,090 Cases and 2,857,945 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Flying mermaid]

NSW has said people have to be tested before they leave hotel quarantine or stay for an extra 10 days.

and 40 new non hotel quarantine cases in Melbourne

 

[Lynda2475]

some interesting charts in this updated article: Tracking the coronavirus spread: This is how NSW wiped 300 infections from its active case count

 

[Flying mermaid]

Nurse in Royal Melbourne ED has tested positive

 

[Pushka]

Nurse in Royal Melbourne ED has tested positive

We had a nurse test positive in SA a few weeks ago. It isn't as though there is a really heavy viral load so maybe some issues re infection control.

 

[RooFlyer]

The TV etc were using people being interviewed via video from their phone before COVID, but now its really common, right?

I'm amazed at the people, who are being formally interviewed on TV, or giving a presentation, just prop their phone on the table and look down on it, with their nose and noggin filling the screen. Can't they see themselves? ... Am I the only one who thinks a head filling a screen and looking up their nose is a bit off-putting?

I've seen this with politicians and journos who should know better.

I had my first Zoom meeting last week, listening to a Uni presentation. I had my video and audio off, as I was just listening, but amazing how many of my, er, 'younger' class-mates were obvious and we all got to see a couple of them eat lunch rather grossly and some others who were obviously not even trying to look as though they were listening.

 

[Pushka]

The TV etc were using people being interviewed via video from their phone before COVID, but now its really common, right?

I'm amazed at the people, who are being formally interviewed on TV, or giving a presentation, just prop their phone on the table and look down on it, with their nose and noggin filling the screen. Can't they see themselves? ... Am I the only one who thinks a head filling a screen and looking up their nose is a bit off-putting?

I've seen this with politicians and journos who should know better.

I had my first Zoom meeting last week, listening to a Uni presentation. I had my video and audio off, as I was just listening, but amazing how many of my, er, 'younger' class-mates were obvious and we all got to see a couple eat lunch rather grossly.

Foxtel is awful for this. Looking at close range up someone's nostril is not my idea of great viewing. You'd think the media people would know better. There are several funny zoom instances: A woman taking her laptop to the loo in focus of her ablutions, a media guy caught out having an affair with another presenter as she struts out in the nude in the background whilst on air; the guy leaving the presentation having only been dressed in jocks instead of pants, and in my own case, great niece doing a booty shake after emerging from the bath while mum is doing a presentation online. And so it goes.

 

[VPS]

I guess because I've been working from home for two years you do learn quickly what is and isn't appropriate. It's funny how dealing with others in our organisation who have an office are coping with the WFH - every now and then I just say - no camera today and people go - OK - let me know if you need help

 

[Major]

Last week in Kuranda, North Qld at least 75% of shops were shut. This week in Airlie Beach it's the exact opposite. 95% of shops and restaurants are open.

There are people everywhere.